煤炭行业供需格局改善
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中信证券:下半年煤炭行业预期改善 建议逢低布局动力煤红利龙头
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 01:05
Group 1 - The coal industry is expected to improve in supply-demand dynamics in the second half of the year, with effective capacity regulation policies likely to suppress overproduction and downstream coal consumption continuing to recover [1][2] - Sample companies reported a 25% year-on-year decline in coal prices, while the average cost per ton of coal decreased by approximately 10%, indicating effective cost control amidst a downturn [1][2] - The net profit of sample companies in the first half of the year decreased by about 32%, but there was an increase in mid-term dividend activity, with total cash dividend proposals reaching 24.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 134% [2] Group 2 - The supply growth of the coal industry has significantly slowed since Q2, with July's raw coal production showing a year-on-year decline, leading to a notable easing of supply [3] - Seasonal factors are expected to support coal prices, with Q3 and Q4 likely to see a sequential increase in average prices for thermal coal, while coking coal prices are anticipated to be significantly higher in the second half compared to the first half [3] - If policies against overproduction are strictly enforced, coal prices may exceed expectations, with Q3 performance expected to improve as Q2 is seen as the profit bottom [3]