Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again. The current weak domestic economic performance and external pressures, such as tariffs from the Trump administration and a declining interest rate environment, make coal a stable dividend investment. Insurance funds have begun new allocations in coal and other dividend sectors, which are perceived as low-risk due to state-owned backgrounds [4][12] - The coal market is expected to stabilize and rebound as supply-demand fundamentals improve. Both thermal and coking coal prices are at low levels, with potential for upward movement following the implementation of macroeconomic policies and the upcoming construction season in 2025 [4][12] - The coal sector is likely to see a renewed investment focus due to supportive macro policies and capital market conditions. High dividend payouts have become a trend, with several listed coal companies announcing mid-term dividend plans, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [4][12] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Logic - The coal sector is viewed as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic conditions and favorable macroeconomic policies. Insurance funds are starting new allocations in coal, which is seen as a low-risk investment [4][12] 2. Key Indicators Overview - The coal sector experienced a slight decline of 0.5% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.38 percentage points. The sector's PE ratio is 11.81, and the PB ratio is 1.18, ranking low among all A-share industries [7][9] 3. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of June 6, the Qinhuangdao port price for Q5500 thermal coal is 609 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 0.33%. The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.3%, with a minor decline [3][15] - The inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased to 29.31 million tons, down 4.1% from the previous week, indicating a continued destocking trend [3][15] 4. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at the Jing Tang port remains stable at 1,270 CNY/ton. However, the price of domestic coking coal is nearing production costs, which may support future price stability [3][16] - The demand for coking coal remains resilient despite pressures from the steel industry, with average daily iron output still above 240 tons [3][16] 5. Company Announcements - Several coal companies have announced plans for share buybacks and increased shareholder stakes, indicating confidence in the sector's valuation and potential for price appreciation [4][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again. The current weak domestic economy and external pressures, such as tariffs from the Trump administration, along with a downward trend in interest rates, make coal a stable dividend investment. Insurance funds have begun new allocations in coal and other dividend sectors, which are perceived as low-risk due to state-owned backgrounds [4][12]. - The coal market is expected to stabilize and rebound as supply-demand fundamentals improve. Both thermal and coking coal prices are at low levels, with potential for upward movement following the implementation of macroeconomic policies and the upcoming construction season in 2025 [4][12]. - The coal sector is likely to see a renewed investment focus due to supportive macro policies and capital market initiatives. High dividend payouts have become a trend, with several listed coal companies announcing mid-term dividend plans, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Logic - The coal sector is viewed as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Insurance funds are starting new allocations in coal, which is seen as a low-risk investment [4][12]. 2. Key Indicators Overview - The coal sector experienced a slight decline of 0.5% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.38 percentage points. The sector's PE ratio is 11.81, and the PB ratio is 1.18, ranking low among all A-share industries [7][9]. 3. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of June 6, the Qinhuangdao port price for Q5500 thermal coal is 609 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 0.33%. The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.3%, with a minor decline [3][15]. - The inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased to 29.31 million tons, down 4.1% from the previous week, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [3][15]. 4. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price for main coking coal at the Jing Tang port remains stable at 1270 CNY/ton. However, the market is facing potential supply disruptions due to political changes in Mongolia and domestic cost pressures [3][16]. - The average daily iron output remains above 240 CNY/ton, indicating resilient demand for coking coal despite pressures from the steel industry [3][16]. 5. Company Announcements - Several coal companies have announced plans for stock buybacks and increased shareholder holdings, signaling confidence in the sector's valuation and potential for price appreciation [4][12]. 6. Selected Coal Stocks - Key stocks to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for dividend potential; Pingmei Shenma and Huabei Mining for cyclical logic; and Guanghui Energy and Xinjie Energy for growth potential [4][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that marginal improvements in supply and demand have stabilized coal prices, indicating a potential recovery in coal asset allocation [1][4] - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again due to favorable macroeconomic policies and capital market support [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The current weak domestic economic performance and external pressures, such as tariff policies, create a favorable environment for coal as a stable dividend investment [4][12] - The cyclical elasticity of coal stocks is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices expected to rebound as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][12] - The report notes a trend of increasing dividends among coal companies, indicating a strong response to policy support and a shift towards higher dividend payouts [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The coal sector saw a slight increase of 1.03% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.21 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 11.9, and the PB ratio is 1.19, ranking low among all A-share industries [9] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of May 23, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 611 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.49% [3][15] - The operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.3%, showing a minor decline [15] - Daily coal consumption by coastal power plants increased to 187.6 thousand tons, up 3.93% from the previous period [15] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The report indicates a slight decrease in port coking coal prices, with the average price at 1300 CNY/ton [16] - The market price for coking coal in Shanxi is reported at 1130 CNY/ton, down 4.24% [16] Company Announcements - Several coal companies have announced mid-term dividend plans, reflecting a trend towards higher shareholder returns [4][12] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the resilience of black demand and the overall stability of the coal market despite recent price fluctuations [3][4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation in the current market environment, highlighting a basket of financial policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations [1][2] - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "golden era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rebound due to favorable macroeconomic policies and capital market support [2][10] Coal Market Overview - As of May 9, 2025, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 630 CNY/ton, a decrease of 20 CNY/ton or 3.08% from the previous week [1][13] - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions was 81.1%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points [1][13] - In April 2025, China imported 37.825 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 16.41% [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants reached 1.734 million tons, an increase of 235,000 tons week-on-week [1][9] - The inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim increased to 33.051 million tons, up 201,800 tons or 6.5% [1][9] - The operating rates for methanol and urea production were 84.1% and 87.35%, respectively, indicating a stable demand for coal in chemical production [1][9] Investment Logic - The report outlines a robust dividend investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that they remain a preferred choice for institutional investors due to their stable returns and low risk associated with state-owned enterprises [2][10] - The cyclical elasticity of coal stocks is highlighted, with expectations for price recovery as supply-demand fundamentals improve post-policy implementation [2][10] Key Indicators - The coal sector's PE ratio was reported at 11.6, and the PB ratio was 1.16, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [5][7] - The report identifies key coal stocks that are expected to benefit from the current market conditions, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2][10] Focused Stock Recommendations - The report suggests a selection of coal stocks based on different investment themes: - Dividend logic: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy - Cyclical logic: Pingmei Shenma, Huabei Mining - Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Energy, Electric Power Energy - Growth logic: Guanghui Energy, New Hope Energy [2][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation, highlighting a stable economic environment as indicated by the political bureau meeting, which focuses on stability [1][3] - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again due to favorable macroeconomic policies and capital market support [4][12] - The report suggests that coal stocks are attractive for both stable dividend investment and cyclical rebound potential, with expectations of improved demand and prices following policy implementations [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is seen as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and favorable international monetary policies [4][12] - The cyclical rebound potential is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices expected to stabilize and rebound as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][12] - The report identifies key coal stocks that are likely to benefit from these trends, categorized into dividend logic, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The coal market experienced a slight decline of 0.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.02 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.6, and the PB ratio is 1.2, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of April 25, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 655 CNY/ton, down 1.21% from the previous week [15] - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81%, reflecting a slight decrease [15] - The total inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim is 31.09 million tons, down 2.66% from the previous week [15] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at the Jing Tang port remains stable at 1380 CNY/ton [16] - The average daily pig iron production from major steel mills is 2.444 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase [16] - The profitability of major steel mills has improved, supporting the demand for coking coal [16]

2025 年 04 月 27 日 政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《火电降幅收窄叠加进口减量，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.20 《贸易摩擦升级内需有望发力，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.13 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 煤炭 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1/31 《美国关税超预期致市场趋于避险， 重视煤炭攻守兼备 —行业周报》- 2025.4.6 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周动力煤港口价格小跌，截至 4 月 25 日，秦 港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 655 元/吨，环比下跌 8 元/吨，跌幅 1.21%；CCTD 动力 煤现货价（Q5500）为 66 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation due to the narrowing decline in thermal power and reduced imports, indicating a potential recovery in the coal market [1][3] - The coal market is expected to enter a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets likely to rise again, supported by stable domestic production and improving supply-demand fundamentals [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The current weak domestic economic performance and external pressures from tariff policies are leading to a favorable environment for coal as a stable dividend investment [4][12] - The cyclical elasticity of coal stocks is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices at low levels, suggesting potential for rebound as supply-demand conditions improve [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The coal sector saw a small increase of 2.71%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.12 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.5, and the PB ratio is 1.2, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9][13] Coal Price Trends - Port coal prices have stabilized, with CCTD Q5500 pricing at 674 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 2 CNY/ton [3][15] - Domestic coal production remains stable, with a reported industrial raw coal output of 440 million tons in March, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [3][12] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of April 18, the inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim reached 31.948 million tons, an increase of 2.07 million tons (6.9%) [3][15] - Daily coal consumption at coastal power plants totaled 1.774 million tons, a decrease of 83,000 tons (4.47%) compared to the previous period [3][15] Company Performance and Recommendations - Selected coal stocks are expected to benefit from the current market conditions, with recommendations for companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy based on their dividend potential [4][12][13] - The report indicates a trend of increasing dividends among coal companies, enhancing their attractiveness as investment options [4][12]