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淮北矿业(600985):公司2025年一季报点评报告:Q1降本对冲煤价下滑影响,关注成长性及破净修复
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-07 14:19
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huabei Mining is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 10.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 690 million yuan, down 56.5% year-on-year and down 3.4% quarter-on-quarter. The report also notes that the company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 3.63 billion, 4.61 billion, and 5.19 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of -25.2%, +26.8%, and +12.6% [4][6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's coal production and sales volume decreased by 17.7% and 26.2% year-on-year, respectively. The average selling price of coal was 937.8 yuan per ton, down 20.3% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 519.9 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross profit per ton of coal was 417.9 yuan, reflecting a decline of 28.4% year-on-year [4] Product Performance - The report indicates that the production and sales of coke and methanol also saw a decline in Q1 2025, with coke sales down 15.2% year-on-year and methanol sales up 31.2% year-on-year [5] - The average price of coke was 1498.9 yuan per ton, down 35.2% year-on-year, while the average price of methanol increased by 3.5% year-on-year [5] Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the growth potential in coal mining and coal chemical sectors, with ongoing projects such as the construction of the 8 million tons/year Tohutu mine and the 3 million tons/year Xinh Lake coal mine [6] - The company is also increasing its limestone resource capacity, with a total of 7 mines expected to produce 16.4 million tons/year [6] Valuation Metrics - As of May 6, 2025, the company's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.76, indicating a state of being below net asset value. The report mentions a shareholder return plan with a minimum dividend payout ratio increased from 30% to 35% [6][7]