足及五光 煤炭/ 1 - 7 - 7 - 1 - 2 - 2025 年 08 月 17 日 主产地供应偏紧, 旺季度同刻原 价预计仍将上涨;看好需求恢复 鳥煤价格再次回升 煤炭行业周报 (2025.8.9-2025.8.15) 寿研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 动力煤方面,截至 8 月 15 日,据中国煤炭市场网,秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 559、643、698 元/吨,环比上涨 5、14、16 元/吨。供给端, 据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 164.77 万吨，环比上周增加 2.83 万 吨、涨幅 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua, the largest coal production and sales enterprise in China, is expected to see a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling coal sales volume and prices, despite a generally stable operational performance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, China Shenhua anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders between 23.6 billion to 25.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 13.2% to 20.0% [1][2]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 338.375 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, while net profit is expected to be 58.671 billion yuan, down 1.71% [2]. - The coal sales volume in June was 37.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, but the decline was significantly smaller compared to the overall first half of the year [1][5]. Group 2: Operational Strategy - China Shenhua has increased the proportion of long-term coal sales contracts to over 90%, which helps to mitigate the impact of market price fluctuations [4]. - The company is actively pursuing the integration of coal and power operations, with the acquisition of Hanjin Energy adding 10 million tons of new coal mines and 1,570 tons of operational coal mines [4]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development, emphasizing sales promotion, power generation, management efficiency, and operational effectiveness [2]. Group 3: Industry Context - The coal industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, with prices declining over the past two years, leading to operational pressures for companies [2]. - Recent operational data indicates that the decline in coal sales volume has narrowed, with a significant increase in national electricity demand due to the summer peak [5]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of reduced hydropower output and a slowdown in wind and solar generation may create opportunities for thermal power generation, potentially supporting a rebound in coal prices [5]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - China Shenhua is advancing its coal mine automation initiatives, aiming for full automation by 2025, with several intelligent coal mines already established [6][7]. - The company has completed three national-level intelligent demonstration coal mines and plans to build an additional seven advanced intelligent coal mines by 2025 [7]. - In the power generation sector, the capital expenditure plan for 2025 is approximately 17.4 billion yuan, with multiple coal-fired power projects under construction [7].

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported its first loss since its listing in 2015, with a total impairment provision of CNY 113.87 million due to prudence regarding goodwill [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved profitability with a year-on-year growth [2] - A cash dividend of CNY 0.50 per 10 shares (before tax) is proposed for Q1 2025, pending approval at the annual shareholders' meeting [5] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is focusing on enhancing its semiconductor and IoT business, with plans to strengthen R&D and market expansion to maintain competitive advantages [2][3] - The company has established a dual circulation production and marketing model to support global development and respond to international trade tensions [2] - The company aims to leverage its technological capabilities in both semiconductor packaging and IoT safety monitoring to drive revenue growth and profitability [6] Group 3: Challenges and Responses - The decline in revenue in 2024 was primarily due to the impact of geopolitical tensions on the overseas semiconductor business [2] - The company is actively monitoring changes in U.S. tariff policies and coordinating with partners to mitigate impacts [2] - To address market challenges, the company plans to enhance overseas market development and expand its market share in IoT equipment [4][5] Group 4: Product Development and Innovation - The company is launching new products in the semiconductor sector, including various laser cutting machines and customized models based on the 8230 technology platform [3] - The integration of AI and large model technologies is being actively pursued in product development [4] - The company has successfully developed a one-piece reverse planetary roller screw electric cylinder, targeting specific industry needs [7]