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盘江股份(600395):公司信息更新报告:Q2盈利显著修复,煤价上行和电力放量助力改善
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-26 14:34
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 earnings have significantly improved, driven by rising coal prices and increased electricity generation [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 243 million, 372 million, and 472 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 133.4%, 53.1%, and 26.9% [3] - The company's coal production capacity is expected to grow, and the integration of coal, electricity, and renewable energy is progressing steadily [3] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 5.1 million yuan, down 113.67% year-on-year [3] - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 2.67 billion yuan, up 7.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 99.48 million yuan, an increase of 200 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [3] - The average selling price of coal in H1 2025 was 684.8 yuan per ton, down 22.3% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 513.2 yuan, down 20.3% year-on-year [4] - The company's electricity generation in H1 2025 was 7.13 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 380% [4] Capacity and Project Development - The company has commenced production at the Mayixi No. 1 well, contributing an annual capacity of 2.4 million tons, with further projects underway [5] - As of June 2025, the company has established a total installed capacity of 2.64 million kilowatts for thermal power generation and 3.9396 million kilowatts for renewable energy [5] - The company benefits from policy incentives, including a 15% corporate income tax reduction starting in 2025, which supports its expansion in renewable energy [5]
盘江股份(600395):煤炭开采公司研报
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 02:26
Core Viewpoint - The company faces pressure on performance due to declining coal prices and volumes, while its electricity business shows growth in both volume and price, maintaining a "buy" rating. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million yuan, down 85.8% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, revenue was 2.45 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%, with a net profit of 70 million yuan, up 3402% quarter-on-quarter [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%, but the net profit was -100 million yuan, a decline of 590.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Coal Business Performance - In 2024, the company produced 9.41 million tons of commodity coal, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, with external sales down 32% to 7.84 million tons [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 808 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, the price dropped to 672 yuan per ton, down 24.9% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit per ton of coal in 2024 was 181 yuan, a decrease of 17.3% year-on-year, and in Q1 2025, it fell to 76 yuan, down 66.7% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Electricity Business Performance - In 2024, the company's power generation reached 651,472 million kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4020%, with grid-connected electricity also rising by 4060% [2] - The average on-grid electricity price in 2024 was 0.367 yuan per kWh, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, it increased slightly to 0.3718 yuan per kWh, up 0.5% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Prospects - The company expects coal production capacity to increase, with several projects progressing as planned, including the Ma Yidong and Yangshan coal mines [3] - The company is advancing its coal, electricity, and renewable energy projects, with significant investments in renewable energy capacity [3] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 45%, an increase of 4.94% year-on-year, resulting in a current dividend yield of 6.6% [3]
盘江股份(600395):Q1煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压,电力业务量价齐升
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-08 01:40
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was pressured by a decline in coal volume and price, while the electricity business saw increases in both volume and price [1] - The company reported a revenue of 8.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million yuan, down 85.8% year-on-year [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 590 million, 1.12 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -43.7%, +91.2%, and +45.8% [1] Summary by Sections Coal Business Performance - In 2024, the company's coal production and external sales were 9.41 million and 7.84 million tons respectively, down 16.5% and 32% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 808 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year, while the cost was 627 yuan per ton, up 11.3% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the average selling price of coal dropped to 672 yuan per ton, a decrease of 24.9% year-on-year [2] Electricity Business Performance - The company's electricity generation in 2024 was 651,472 million kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4020%, with an average on-grid electricity price of 0.367 yuan per kWh [2] - In Q1 2025, electricity generation reached 368,758 million kWh, up 555.5% year-on-year, with an average on-grid price of 0.3718 yuan per kWh, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year [2] Capacity Expansion and Projects - The company is progressing with coal production capacity expansion, with several projects expected to commence operations in the coming years [3] - The company has also been advancing its coal-electricity and renewable energy projects, with significant investments in renewable energy capacity [3] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 45%, an increase of 4.94% year-on-year, resulting in a current dividend yield of 6.6% [3] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected at 9.32 billion yuan, with a net profit of 590 million yuan, reflecting a P/E ratio of 172.5 times [4] - The gross margin is expected to decline to 23.1% in 2025, while the net margin is projected at 0.6% [4] - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 43.85 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 73.7% [8]