Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 earnings have significantly improved, driven by rising coal prices and increased electricity generation [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 243 million, 372 million, and 472 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 133.4%, 53.1%, and 26.9% [3] - The company's coal production capacity is expected to grow, and the integration of coal, electricity, and renewable energy is progressing steadily [3] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 5.1 million yuan, down 113.67% year-on-year [3] - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 2.67 billion yuan, up 7.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 99.48 million yuan, an increase of 200 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [3] - The average selling price of coal in H1 2025 was 684.8 yuan per ton, down 22.3% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 513.2 yuan, down 20.3% year-on-year [4] - The company's electricity generation in H1 2025 was 7.13 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 380% [4] Capacity and Project Development - The company has commenced production at the Mayixi No. 1 well, contributing an annual capacity of 2.4 million tons, with further projects underway [5] - As of June 2025, the company has established a total installed capacity of 2.64 million kilowatts for thermal power generation and 3.9396 million kilowatts for renewable energy [5] - The company benefits from policy incentives, including a 15% corporate income tax reduction starting in 2025, which supports its expansion in renewable energy [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company faces pressure on performance due to declining coal prices and volumes, while its electricity business shows growth in both volume and price, maintaining a "buy" rating. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 100 million yuan, down 85.8% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, revenue was 2.45 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%, with a net profit of 70 million yuan, up 3402% quarter-on-quarter [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%, but the net profit was -100 million yuan, a decline of 590.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Coal Business Performance - In 2024, the company produced 9.41 million tons of commodity coal, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, with external sales down 32% to 7.84 million tons [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 808 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, the price dropped to 672 yuan per ton, down 24.9% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit per ton of coal in 2024 was 181 yuan, a decrease of 17.3% year-on-year, and in Q1 2025, it fell to 76 yuan, down 66.7% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Electricity Business Performance - In 2024, the company's power generation reached 651,472 million kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4020%, with grid-connected electricity also rising by 4060% [2] - The average on-grid electricity price in 2024 was 0.367 yuan per kWh, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, it increased slightly to 0.3718 yuan per kWh, up 0.5% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Prospects - The company expects coal production capacity to increase, with several projects progressing as planned, including the Ma Yidong and Yangshan coal mines [3] - The company is advancing its coal, electricity, and renewable energy projects, with significant investments in renewable energy capacity [3] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 45%, an increase of 4.94% year-on-year, resulting in a current dividend yield of 6.6% [3]

煤炭/煤炭开采 盘江股份（600395.SH） Q1 煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，电力业务量价齐升 2025 年 05 月 08 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 Q1 煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，电力业务量价齐升，维持"买入"评级 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 一季报，2024 年实现营收 89 亿元，同比-5.4%，归 母净利润 1 亿元，同比-85.8%，扣非归母净利润-0.3 亿元，同比-104.6%；其中 2024Q4 实现营收 24.5 亿元，环比+2%，归母净利润 0.7 亿元，环比+3402%， 扣非归母净利润 0.2 亿元，环比+1003.1%。2025Q1 实现营收 24.8 亿元，同比 +27.3%，归母净利润-1 亿元，同比-590.4%，扣非归母净利润-1.2 亿元，同比 -4826.2%。考虑到煤炭销量下滑，我们下调 2025-2026 年盈利预测并新增 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年公司实现归母净利润 0.59/1.12/1.63 亿元 （2025-2026 年前值 ...