Group 1: Power Generation Capacity - The company has 8 million kW of coal-fired power generation capacity under construction, with approximately 3,000-5,000 kW expected to be operational in 2025, and the remaining capacity projected for 2026-2027 [2] - As of the first three quarters of 2025, the company has a total installed capacity of 40.5593 million kW, with coal-fired capacity at 20.01 million kW (49.34%), gas-fired capacity at 11.847 million kW (29.21%), wind power at 3.895 million kW (9.60%), solar power at 4.5745 million kW (11.28%), and hydropower at 132.8 thousand kW [2] Group 2: New Energy Business Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company faced intensified competition in the electricity market and policy adjustments, leading to a net profit of approximately 156.36 million yuan from wind power, while solar power incurred a net loss of about 50.88 million yuan [3] Group 3: Fuel Procurement and Cost - The company maintains a balanced procurement structure with domestic and imported coal each accounting for approximately 50% of total coal purchases [3] - Fuel costs decreased by 13.38% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to falling coal prices [3] Group 4: Electricity Pricing Outlook - The average transaction price for bilateral negotiations in Guangdong Province for 2025 is 391.87 yuan per thousand kWh, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 15.84% [4] - The long-term electricity price for 2026 is subject to various uncertainties, including macroeconomic conditions, market policies, and customer expectations [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the power sector, emphasizing the potential for price recovery and demand restoration in the future [4]. Core Insights - The power sector's overall performance in Q3 2025 aligns with expectations, with thermal power showing revenue decline but profit increase, hydropower remaining stable, and green energy facing pressure [4]. - The report forecasts a 5% year-on-year growth in total electricity consumption for 2025, with an expected increase in installed capacity exceeding 500 million kilowatts [11][4]. - Coal prices are projected to continue their downward trend due to weak downstream demand, with the average price for Q3 2025 at 673 RMB/ton, a 26.7% decrease year-on-year [20][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From January to September 2025, total electricity consumption reached 77,675 billion kWh, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, while industrial power generation grew by 1.6% [11]. - The performance of the power sector indices shows that the CSI 300 index rose by 17.90%, while the CITIC Power and Utilities index only increased by 3.05%, underperforming by 14.86 percentage points [23][2]. - Fund holdings in the power sector have decreased, with active funds holding 0.65% and index funds holding 1.74% of the sector, both showing declines compared to previous quarters [28][2]. Performance Overview - The power sector's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1,436.5 billion RMB, down 1.34% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 5.81% to 169.4 billion RMB [3]. - Thermal power revenue decreased by 3.12% to 906 billion RMB, but net profit rose by 15.83% to 71.1 billion RMB [3]. - Hydropower revenue grew by 1.66% to 148.8 billion RMB, with net profit increasing by 3.32% to 51.3 billion RMB [3]. - New energy generation, including nuclear power, saw a slight revenue increase of 0.77% to 235.6 billion RMB, but net profit fell by 5.59% to 35.3 billion RMB [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the thermal power sector, particularly companies like Huaneng International and Huadian International, due to expected price stabilization and performance recovery [4][7]. - It also recommends increasing positions in undervalued green energy stocks and highlights the importance of energy storage policies and flexible power generation [4][7].