Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not rated [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - Crude oil: Since May, oil prices have been supported by peak - season procurement expectations. Recently, the upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. In July, the downside risk from the trade war is greater than the upside risk from geopolitical factors, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured state. In August, if the European diesel contradiction remains unresolved, the market may rise again [2] - Fuel oil & low - sulfur fuel oil: After a significant decline in the previous trading day, FU slightly recovered today but remained weak. LU also followed the decline of crude oil. Since July, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels has widened. Under the OPEC+ production increase path, there is an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy resources globally. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel production areas such as Russia and Iran is relatively limited in the short term. The actual increase in feedstock due to the previous pilot of raising the fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio in China is limited, and demand lacks a driving force. The FU crack is expected to maintain a downward trend. The unilateral trend of LU mainly follows crude oil, and its crack may turn to a volatile pattern similar to that of overseas diesel [3] - Asphalt: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase decreased by 1 percentage point compared to the end of June. Overall, the resilience of asphalt supply increase remains to be observed. Demand remains weak but has recovery expectations. Low inventory still provides some support for prices. The unilateral trend mainly follows the direction of crude oil. Before demand improves substantially, the upward drive of BU is limited. Since mid - July, the BU crack has shown a volatile consolidation pattern [4] - LPG: The production increase pressure in the Middle East persists. Although chemical procurement in the Far East has increased, overseas prices continue to be volatile and weak. Recently, the import cost has continued to decline, but the weak terminal product prices have kept the PDH gross margin stable. PDH has added new maintenance. Recently, the domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the domestic gas price is mainly under pressure at the top. Crude oil has declined, and the summer off - season pattern remains unchanged, so the futures market is volatile and weak [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Price trend: Supported by peak - season procurement expectations since May, but the upward drive of strong real - world factors has weakened recently [2] - Risk factors: In July, trade - war downside risk > geopolitical upside risk; August is a critical window for Russia - Ukraine and Iran - nuclear games, and unresolved European diesel contradictions may lead to a market rise [2] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil - Market performance: FU slightly recovered but remained weak after a previous decline, LU followed crude oil down, and the high - low sulfur spread widened since July [3] - Supply - demand situation: Under OPEC+ production increase, high - sulfur heavy resource supply may increase; short - term sanctions impact on major production areas is limited; domestic tax deduction pilot has limited feedstock increase effect; demand lacks drive [3] - Crack trend: FU crack expected to decline, LU crack may turn to a volatile pattern [3] Asphalt - Shipment and inventory: Shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly month - on - month, cumulative year - on - year increase decreased; low inventory supports prices [4] - Supply - demand outlook: Supply increase resilience to be observed, demand is weak but has recovery expectations; before demand improvement, upward drive of BU is limited [4] - Crack pattern: Since mid - July, the BU crack has shown a volatile consolidation pattern [4] LPG - Overseas market: Middle East production increase pressure persists, overseas prices are volatile and weak despite increased Far East chemical procurement [5] - Domestic situation: Import cost declined, PDH gross margin stable due to weak terminal prices; PDH added new maintenance, domestic supply and demand are both weak, and domestic gas price is under pressure [5] - Market trend: Crude oil decline and summer off - season lead to a volatile and weak futures market [5]