西南期货：燃料油主力合约暂时观望 上一交易日燃料油高开低走，仍收于均线组下方。11月21日(周五)，亚洲高硫燃料油现货贴水收窄， 380-cst高硫燃料油交易势头仍较为强劲。超低硫燃料油市场基本保持不变，现货价差停留在小幅升水状 态。Hi-5燃料油价差连续第三日缩小，反映出高硫燃料油小幅回升。衡量超低硫燃料油较380-cst高硫燃 料油升水的hi-5价差降至每吨80美元左右。高硫燃料油裂解价差上涨，但超低硫燃料油裂解价差仍承 压，尽管原油价格下跌。超低硫燃料油裂解价差跌至每桶升水约5.40美元，380-c高硫燃料油裂解价差 在震荡交投中升至每桶贴水近7美元。新加坡交易窗口据报达成四笔380-cst高硫燃料油交易，一笔超低 硫燃料油交易，未达成180-cs高硫燃料油交易。行情研判：亚洲燃料油现货贴水收窄，利空燃料油价 格。俄乌战争存在缓解迹象，利空燃料油价格。策略方面，燃料油主力合约暂时观望。 大越期货 预计高低硫价差进一步收窄 西南期货 燃料油主力合约暂时观望 大越期货：预计高低硫价差进一步收窄 由于对船货的需求小幅回升，提振船用燃料现货升水创下六个多星期以来的新高，但亚洲低硫燃料油市 场结构开始显现疲软，高 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-19燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：俄罗斯新罗西斯克出口枢纽在遭遇乌克兰袭击导致黑海港口停运两天后恢复装货，但更广泛的地缘政 治风险对油价构成支撑，目前整体油价震荡运行，燃油基本面上高硫略有提振，不过高低硫价差仍处于较高水 平，收缩仍待时日。FU2601：2540-2590区间偏强运行，LU2601：3220-3280区间偏强运行 1、基本面：一位驻新加坡的交易员表示，高硫燃料油市场一直受到下游船用燃料需要的强劲支撑，且本周买盘 兴趣将保持稳定。此外，他还表示，有部分低硫燃料油持续稳定发往中国。一些炼油厂也在采购高硫燃料油作 为原料； ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-11-18 强弱格局边际变化下，高低硫价差持续反弹 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.92%，报2593元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.43%，报3236 元/吨。 原油价格近期呈现弱势震荡态势，油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，对燃料油单边价格存在一定压制。就燃料油 自身基本面而言，目前处于高低硫强弱格局收敛的阶段，前期偏强的高硫燃料油基本面边际转松，市场结构调整， 但下方支撑因素依然存在。低硫燃料油方面，由于装置检修的变化，尼日利亚、科威特地区供应边际收紧，海外 汽柴油偏强也对低硫燃料油估值形成一定提振。但中期来看，低硫燃料油强于高硫燃料油的状态难以形成趋势， 高低硫价差上方空间或有限。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 跨品种：前期多LU-FU价差头寸可适当止盈 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：新加坡高硫380燃料油现货价格 | ...

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/11/10 | 371.28 | 414.78 | -4.71 | 690.87 | -276.09 | 30.17 | 43.50 | | 2025/11/11 | 381.44 | 422.72 | -4.85 | 715.93 | -293.21 | 32.12 | 41.28 | | 2025/11/12 | 365.00 | 405.19 | -5.03 | 692.85 | -287.66 | 31.72 | 40.19 | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The fuel oil market follows the rhythm of the crude oil end, with the FU and LU disk showing weak and volatile movements, and the short - term trend is unclear. The high - low sulfur spread has continuously rebounded from the bottom, indicating a marginal change in the strength - weakness pattern. The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream power plant demand is in the off - season, the spot market has loosened, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply from Russia and Iran still has uncertainties due to sanctions and drone attacks. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply from Kuwait and Nigeria has marginally declined recently, the pressure has eased, and there is room for market structure repair, but it still lacks sufficient positive drivers. Overall, the high - low sulfur spread is expected to maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend in the short term, with limited upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Sections Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.04% at 2,728 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.24% at 3,269 yuan/ton [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream power plant demand is in the off - season, the spot market has loosened, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply from Russia and Iran still has uncertainties due to sanctions and drone attacks. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply from Kuwait and Nigeria has marginally declined recently, the pressure has eased, and there is room for market structure repair, but it still lacks sufficient positive drivers [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2]. - Cross - variety: Go long on the LU2601 - FU2601 spread at low levels [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low levels [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contracts of SHFE fuel oil futures and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose at night. The FU and LU prices fluctuated weakly following the crude oil trend, with an unclear short - term trend. The high - low sulfur spread rebounded from the bottom, indicating a marginal change in the strength - weakness pattern [1]. - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have loosened recently, with the crack spread and monthly spread weakening and relatively abundant supply. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the restart of Dangote refinery's RFCC unit has relieved local supply pressure, and the maintenance of Kuwait's Azur refinery has led to a phased decline in shipments. The estimated low - sulfur fuel oil shipments from Kuwait in November are 0 tons, compared with 55500 tons in October. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has certain short - term repair conditions, and the high - low sulfur spread is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.15% at 2731 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.58% at 3296 yuan/ton [1]. - The high - low sulfur spread has rebounded from the bottom, and the fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have loosened with relatively abundant supply. For low - sulfur fuel oil, local supply pressure has been relieved, and Kuwait's shipments are expected to decline in November [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish; Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2]. - Cross - variety strategy: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low levels [2]. Figures - There are multiple figures showing the prices, spreads, closing prices, and trading volumes of Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot, swaps, and domestic fuel oil futures [3][4][11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The landing of China-US trade negotiations has boosted the macro sentiment, but the weakening expectation of the crude oil fundamentals will continue to suppress the market. The fuel oil market has shown a pattern of "high-sulfur stronger than low-sulfur", which is now showing a marginal shift. The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has weakened, the local supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil has eased, and the price difference between high and low sulfur has rebounded slightly from the low level. The reduction of the "fentanyl tariff" by the US has temporarily dispelled concerns about the decline in trade and shipping demand, which is beneficial to both high and low sulfur fuel oils [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.04%, at 2,761 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.26%, at 3,287 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices are in a narrow range of fluctuations, providing limited guidance for the FU and LU disk directions [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Adopt a neutral strategy and mainly observe in the short term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Adopt a neutral strategy and mainly observe in the short term [2] - Cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, and options: No strategies are proposed [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the crack spread of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month - on - month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high - low sulfur price difference is at a historically low level. The crack spread of Singapore 0.5 low - sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil was de - stocked, the high - sulfur floating storage was higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low - sulfur floating storage increased slightly. Fujeirah's heavy - quality inventory increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons, the high - sulfur floating storage was de - stocked but still at a historically high level year - on - year. ARA ports were de - stocked, and the inventory was at a historically low level year - on - year. [3][4] - In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month - on - month, and the UAE's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. High - sulfur fuel oil has started to accumulate inventory globally. The crack spread of Singapore is still supported by procurement demand, but in the medium term, it faces downward pressure due to factors such as Russian sanctions. FU fluctuated mainly and weakened slightly this week. [4] 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 400.88 | 400.43 | 389.26 | 2.73 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 424.62 | 423.42 | 411.42 | 2.03 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 2.65 | - 2.15 | - 2.31 | 0.54 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 688.86 | 705.25 | 680.86 | 3.19 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 264.24 | - 281.83 | - 269.44 | - 1.16 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 28.32 | 30.55 | 28.62 | 0.32 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 23.74 | 22.99 | 22.16 | - 0.70 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 394.15 | 387.51 | 383.93 | 373.72 | 373.35 | - 0.37 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 402.15 | 394.51 | 389.68 | 380.28 | 378.91 | - 1.37 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 448.43 | 446.68 | 443.72 | 438.46 | 443.70 | 5.24 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 90.28 | 90.91 | 91.15 | 89.63 | 90.58 | 0.95 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 3.30 | - 3.68 | - 3.23 | - 4.56 | - 4.63 | - 0.07 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 219.64 | - 226.05 | - 230.79 | - 224.80 | - 226.59 | - 1.79 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 392.86 | 387.02 | 383.42 | 372.68 | 372.56 | - 0.12 | | FOB VLSFO | 445.23 | 446.25 | 441.88 | 437.28 | 442.83 | 5.55 | | 380 Basis | - 1.35 | - 0.90 | - 1.15 | - 1.80 | - 1.95 | - 0.15 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.9 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | - 1.3 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.2 | 7.6 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 14.3 | 1.7 | [2] Domestic FU | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2814 | 2842 | 2818 | 2796 | 2751 | - 45 | | FU 05 | 2741 | 2772 | 2756 | 2744 | 2713 | - 31 | | FU 09 | 2663 | 2683 | 2675 | 2672 | 2657 | - 15 | | FU 01 - 05 | - | 70 | 62 | 52 | 38 | - 14 | | FU 05 - 09 | 78 | 89 | 81 | 72 | 56 | - 16 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 151 | - 159 | - 143 | - 124 | - 94 | 30 | [2] Domestic LU | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3224 | 3257 | 3273 | 3246 | 3255 | 9 | | LU 05 | 3230 | 3262 | 3237 | 3212 | 3223 | 11 | | LU 09 | 3235 | 3272 | 3262 | 3235 | 3237 | 2 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 6 | - 5 | 36 | 34 | 32 | - 2 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 5 | - 10 | - 25 | - 23 | - 14 | 9 | | LU 09 - 01 | 11 | 15 | - 11 | - 11 | - 18 | - 7 | [3]

Report Core View - This week, the crack spread of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month-on-month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high-low sulfur spread is at a historically low level year-on-year. The crack spread of Singapore 0.5 low-sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory decreased, the high-sulfur floating storage is higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. The heavy oil inventory in Fujairah increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons. The high-sulfur floating storage decreased but is still at a historically high level year-on-year. The ARA port's inventory decreased and is at a historically low level year-on-year. In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month-on-month, while the UAE's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation pattern. The global high-sulfur fuel oil inventory began to accumulate. The crack spread of Singapore's high-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by purchasing demand, but it faces downward pressure in the medium term due to factors such as sanctions on Russia. The internal and external prices of FU oscillated mainly and weakened slightly this week. [4][5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 396.75 | 400.88 | 400.43 | 389.26 | 390.21 | 0.95 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 420.88 | 424.62 | 423.42 | 411.42 | 415.93 | 4.51 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.55 | -2.65 | -2.15 | -2.31 | -2.85 | -0.54 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 678.26 | 688.86 | 705.25 | 680.86 | 688.80 | 7.94 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -257.38 | -264.24 | -281.83 | -269.44 | -272.87 | -3.43 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 26.90 | 28.32 | 30.55 | 28.62 | 29.11 | 0.49 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 24.13 | 23.74 | 22.99 | 22.16 | 25.72 | 3.56 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 384.53 | 394.15 | 387.51 | 383.93 | 378.21 | -5.72 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 392.53 | 402.15 | 394.51 | 389.68 | 384.21 | -5.47 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 442.26 | 448.43 | 446.68 | 443.72 | 445.43 | 1.71 | | Singapore GO M1 | 88.08 | 90.28 | 90.91 | 91.15 | 91.38 | 0.23 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.87 | -3.30 | -3.68 | -3.23 | -4.74 | -1.51 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -209.53 | -219.64 | -226.05 | -230.79 | -230.78 | 0.01 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 384.00 | 392.86 | 387.02 | 383.42 | 372.68 | -10.74 | | FOB VLSFO | 438.50 | 445.23 | 446.25 | 441.88 | 437.28 | -4.60 | | 380 Basis | -0.73 | -1.35 | -0.90 | -1.15 | -1.80 | -0.65 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 8.6 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 0.2 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.9 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 13.4 | 12.6 | -0.8 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2752 | 2814 | 2842 | 2818 | 2796 | -22 | | FU 05 | 2701 | 2741 | 2772 | 2756 | 2744 | -12 | | FU 09 | 2640 | 2663 | 2683 | 2675 | 2672 | -3 | | FU 01 - 05 | 51 | - | 70 | 62 | 52 | -10 | | FU 05 - 09 | 61 | 78 | 89 | 81 | 72 | -9 | | FU 09 - 01 | -112 | -151 | -159 | -143 | -124 | 19 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3193 | 3224 | 3257 | 3273 | 3246 | -27 | | LU 05 | 3220 | 3230 | 3262 | 3237 | 3212 | -25 | | LU 09 | 3234 | 3235 | 3272 | 3262 | 3235 | -27 | | LU 01 - 05 | -27 | -6 | -5 | 36 | 34 | -2 | | LU 05 - 09 | -14 | -5 | -10 | -25 | -23 | 2 | | LU 09 - 01 | 41 | 11 | 15 | -11 | -11 | 0 | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the crack spread of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month-on-month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high-low sulfur spread is at a historically low level year-on-year. The crack spread of Singapore 0.5 low-sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil was de-stocked, the high-sulfur floating storage was higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. [3] - The heavy oil inventory in Fujairah increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons. The high-sulfur floating storage was de-stocked but remained at a historically high level year-on-year. The ARA port was de-stocked, and the inventory was at a historically low level year-on-year. In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low-sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month-on-month, while the UAE's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuating pattern. The high-sulfur fuel oil has started to accumulate inventory globally. The crack spread in Singapore is still supported by purchasing demand, but in the medium term, it faces downward pressure due to factors such as sanctions on Russia. The internal and external spread of FU mainly fluctuated, and it weakened slightly this week. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from 373.89 on October 22 to 389.95 on October 28, a decrease of 10.48. [1][8] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the FOB prices of Singapore 380cst and FOB VLSFO showed fluctuations. The FOB 380cst price decreased from 364.70 to 383.42, a decrease of 3.60, and the FOB VLSFO price decreased from 427.30 to 441.88, a decrease of 4.37. The 380 basis, high-sulfur internal and external spread, and low-sulfur internal and external spread also changed accordingly. [2] Domestic FU Data - From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the prices of domestic FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 showed fluctuations. The price of FU 01 decreased from 2691 to 2818, a decrease of 24, and the price differences between different contracts also changed. [2] Domestic LU Data - From October 22 to October 28, 2025, the prices of domestic LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 showed fluctuations. The price of LU 01 increased from 3136 to 3273, an increase of 16, and the price differences between different contracts also changed significantly. [3]