燃料油日报 | 2025-12-09 原油端震荡反弹，市场多空因素交织 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.91%，报2508元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.18%，报3089 元/吨。 原油端延续震荡反弹态势，对FU、LU单边价格形成一定提振。但油市供过于求的预期并未逆转，中期成本端对燃 料油单边价格压制将持续存在。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前整体市场矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油市场结构处于调整阶段，裂解价差已从高 位大幅回落。目前来看，随着中东供应增量释放，市场需要炼厂端需求增加来形成对冲，在比价下跌后经济性已 开始显现，我们认为高硫燃料油市场结构支撑仍存。低硫燃料油方面，市场整体供应依然相对充裕，但局部存在 减量。由于阿祖尔炼厂装置检修时间延长，科威特11月至今跟踪到的船运发货量依旧为零。此外，尼日利亚Dangote 炼厂RFCC装置预计12月8日进入检修（计划内检修），低硫燃料油出口可能会再度回升。近日高低硫价差短期走势 震荡偏强，但预计上方空间有限。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、 ...

科威特发货仍未恢复，高低硫价差再度回升 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.2%，报2469元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.63%，报3035 元/吨。 原油价格从低位小幅反弹，但中期油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，如果俄乌和平协议顺利达成，则地缘情绪溢 价或进一步消退，成本端对燃料油单边价格存在一定压制。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前整体市场矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油市场结构处于调整阶段，下方支撑来自于 炼厂端的增量需求。低硫燃料油方面，市场整体供应依然相对充裕，但局部存在减量。昨日我们在报告中提到阿 祖尔炼厂装置检修时间延长，科威特11月到目前跟踪到的船运发货量依旧为零，短期低硫燃料油市场支撑仍存， 高低硫基差再度回升，但预计空间有限。 燃料油日报 | 2025-12-03 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 | 图1：新加坡 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 2482.00 yuan, closing at 2497.00 yuan, down 1.27% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Dayue Futures predicts that the price gap between high and low sulfur fuel oil will continue to narrow due to a slight recovery in demand for ship fuel, which has led to a rise in spot prices for marine fuel [2]. - Southwest Futures suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for the main fuel oil contract, noting that the previous trading day saw high sulfur fuel oil open high but close lower, remaining below the moving average [2]. - The high sulfur fuel oil market is showing strength, with the 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil trading momentum remaining robust, while the ultra-low sulfur fuel oil market remains stable with slight premium pricing [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The Hi-5 price difference, which measures the premium of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil over 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil, has decreased to around 80 USD per ton, indicating a slight recovery in high sulfur fuel oil [2]. - The cracking spread for ultra-low sulfur fuel oil has dropped to approximately 5.40 USD per barrel, while the cracking spread for 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil has risen to nearly a 7 USD discount amid fluctuating trading [2]. - Reports indicate that four transactions of 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil and one transaction of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil were completed in the Singapore trading window, with no transactions for 180-cst high sulfur fuel oil [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall oil price is oscillating, with geopolitical risks providing support. The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are slightly boosted, but the high - low sulfur price spread remains high and is expected to take time to narrow. FU2601 is expected to run strongly in the range of 2540 - 2590, and LU2601 in the range of 3220 - 3280 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong downstream marine fuel demand, with stable buying interest this week. Some low - sulfur fuel oil is sent to China, and refineries are buying high - sulfur fuel oil as raw materials. The spot spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has turned positive for the first time in six weeks [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 347.77 dollars/ton with a basis of 0 dollars/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is at 448.05 dollars/ton with a basis of 24 dollars/ton, indicating a flat cash - futures relationship [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: Prices are below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main positions are short, changing from long to short [3]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks along with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by strong downstream demand, and some low - sulfur fuel oil is sent to China. Refineries are also purchasing high - sulfur fuel oil as raw materials. The spot spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has turned positive [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the basis information mentioned above. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels. Historical inventory data from September 3 to November 12 are also provided [3][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating for the industry provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The strength - weakness pattern of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is changing marginally, with the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil continuing to rebound. The crude oil price is in a weak oscillation state, and the expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized, which suppresses the unilateral price of fuel oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil's previously strong fundamentals are marginally loosening, but there are still support factors below. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Nigeria and Kuwait is marginally tightening due to device maintenance changes, and the strong overseas gasoline and diesel also boost the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil. However, in the medium term, the state where low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to form a trend, and the upside space of the high - low sulfur spread may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.92% at 2593 yuan/ton during the day session, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.43% at 3236 yuan/ton. The crude oil price is in a weak oscillation state, and the expectation of oversupply in the oil market is suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are marginally loosening, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's supply is marginally tightening in some regions, with overseas gasoline and diesel boosting its valuation. But the medium - term trend of low - sulfur being stronger than high - sulfur is hard to form, and the high - low sulfur spread's upside space is limited [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term. For cross - variety, the previous long LU - FU spread positions can be appropriately stopped for profit. There are no strategies for cross - period, spot - futures, and options [2]. Charts - There are multiple charts including those showing Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contracts, near - month spreads, and the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures contracts [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore oscillated, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, the basis weakened, the HSFO crack in Europe declined, and the EW strengthened. The 0.5% crack in Singapore rebounded, the monthly spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil had a slight de - stocking, ARA's residue oil had inventory accumulation, Fujeirah's residue oil had inventory accumulation, and EIA's residue oil inventory remained flat. [3] - The spread between high - and low - sulfur in the outer market rebounded. Singapore's high - sulfur was supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis weakened rapidly. It is in a short - term oscillating pattern, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur is limited. [3][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | +4.64 [1] | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +8.27 [1] | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 0.45 [1] | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | +22.41 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - G O M1 | - 14.14 [1] | | LGO - Brent M1 | +1.34 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - H SFO M1 | +3.63 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | +4.77 [1] | | Singapore 180cst M1 | +5.78 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +6.41 [1] | | Singapore GO M1 | +0.69 [1] | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 0.24 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO - G O M1 | +1.30 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | +5.06 [2] | | FOB VLSFO | +6.84 [2] | | 380 Basis | +0.03 [2] | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | +1.8 [2] | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | +1.6 [2] | Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | +27 [2] | | FU 05 | +28 [2] | | FU 09 | +25 [2] | | FU 01 - 05 | - 1 [2] | | FU 05 - 09 | +3 [2] | | FU 09 - 01 | - 2 [2] | Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | +76 [3] | | LU 05 | +53 [3] | | LU 09 | +46 [3] | | LU 01 - 05 | +23 [3] | | LU 05 - 09 | +7 [3] | | LU 09 - 01 | - 30 [3] |

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The fuel oil market follows the rhythm of the crude oil end, with the FU and LU disk showing weak and volatile movements, and the short - term trend is unclear. The high - low sulfur spread has continuously rebounded from the bottom, indicating a marginal change in the strength - weakness pattern. The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream power plant demand is in the off - season, the spot market has loosened, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply from Russia and Iran still has uncertainties due to sanctions and drone attacks. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply from Kuwait and Nigeria has marginally declined recently, the pressure has eased, and there is room for market structure repair, but it still lacks sufficient positive drivers. Overall, the high - low sulfur spread is expected to maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend in the short term, with limited upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Sections Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.04% at 2,728 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.24% at 3,269 yuan/ton [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream power plant demand is in the off - season, the spot market has loosened, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply from Russia and Iran still has uncertainties due to sanctions and drone attacks. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply from Kuwait and Nigeria has marginally declined recently, the pressure has eased, and there is room for market structure repair, but it still lacks sufficient positive drivers [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2]. - Cross - variety: Go long on the LU2601 - FU2601 spread at low levels [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low levels [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contracts of SHFE fuel oil futures and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose at night. The FU and LU prices fluctuated weakly following the crude oil trend, with an unclear short - term trend. The high - low sulfur spread rebounded from the bottom, indicating a marginal change in the strength - weakness pattern [1]. - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have loosened recently, with the crack spread and monthly spread weakening and relatively abundant supply. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the restart of Dangote refinery's RFCC unit has relieved local supply pressure, and the maintenance of Kuwait's Azur refinery has led to a phased decline in shipments. The estimated low - sulfur fuel oil shipments from Kuwait in November are 0 tons, compared with 55500 tons in October. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has certain short - term repair conditions, and the high - low sulfur spread is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.15% at 2731 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.58% at 3296 yuan/ton [1]. - The high - low sulfur spread has rebounded from the bottom, and the fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have loosened with relatively abundant supply. For low - sulfur fuel oil, local supply pressure has been relieved, and Kuwait's shipments are expected to decline in November [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish; Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2]. - Cross - variety strategy: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low levels [2]. Figures - There are multiple figures showing the prices, spreads, closing prices, and trading volumes of Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot, swaps, and domestic fuel oil futures [3][4][11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The landing of China-US trade negotiations has boosted the macro sentiment, but the weakening expectation of the crude oil fundamentals will continue to suppress the market. The fuel oil market has shown a pattern of "high-sulfur stronger than low-sulfur", which is now showing a marginal shift. The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has weakened, the local supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil has eased, and the price difference between high and low sulfur has rebounded slightly from the low level. The reduction of the "fentanyl tariff" by the US has temporarily dispelled concerns about the decline in trade and shipping demand, which is beneficial to both high and low sulfur fuel oils [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.04%, at 2,761 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.26%, at 3,287 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices are in a narrow range of fluctuations, providing limited guidance for the FU and LU disk directions [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Adopt a neutral strategy and mainly observe in the short term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Adopt a neutral strategy and mainly observe in the short term [2] - Cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, and options: No strategies are proposed [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the crack spread of Singapore 380 fuel oil strengthened slightly, the monthly spread declined month - on - month, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. The high - low sulfur price difference is at a historically low level. The crack spread of Singapore 0.5 low - sulfur fuel oil weakened, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at historically low levels. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil was de - stocked, the high - sulfur floating storage was higher than the historical average for the same period, and the low - sulfur floating storage increased slightly. Fujeirah's heavy - quality inventory increased significantly to 8,520 thousand tons, the high - sulfur floating storage was de - stocked but still at a historically high level year - on - year. ARA ports were de - stocked, and the inventory was at a historically low level year - on - year. [3][4] - In terms of logistics, the total arrival of domestic fuel oil remained flat, and the arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened slightly. Saudi Arabia's shipments declined month - on - month, and the UAE's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, the weak fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil continued, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. High - sulfur fuel oil has started to accumulate inventory globally. The crack spread of Singapore is still supported by procurement demand, but in the medium term, it faces downward pressure due to factors such as Russian sanctions. FU fluctuated mainly and weakened slightly this week. [4] 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 400.88 | 400.43 | 389.26 | 2.73 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 424.62 | 423.42 | 411.42 | 2.03 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 2.65 | - 2.15 | - 2.31 | 0.54 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 688.86 | 705.25 | 680.86 | 3.19 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 264.24 | - 281.83 | - 269.44 | - 1.16 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 28.32 | 30.55 | 28.62 | 0.32 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 23.74 | 22.99 | 22.16 | - 0.70 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 394.15 | 387.51 | 383.93 | 373.72 | 373.35 | - 0.37 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 402.15 | 394.51 | 389.68 | 380.28 | 378.91 | - 1.37 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 448.43 | 446.68 | 443.72 | 438.46 | 443.70 | 5.24 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 90.28 | 90.91 | 91.15 | 89.63 | 90.58 | 0.95 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 3.30 | - 3.68 | - 3.23 | - 4.56 | - 4.63 | - 0.07 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 219.64 | - 226.05 | - 230.79 | - 224.80 | - 226.59 | - 1.79 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 392.86 | 387.02 | 383.42 | 372.68 | 372.56 | - 0.12 | | FOB VLSFO | 445.23 | 446.25 | 441.88 | 437.28 | 442.83 | 5.55 | | 380 Basis | - 1.35 | - 0.90 | - 1.15 | - 1.80 | - 1.95 | - 0.15 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.9 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | - 1.3 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.2 | 7.6 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 14.3 | 1.7 | [2] Domestic FU | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2814 | 2842 | 2818 | 2796 | 2751 | - 45 | | FU 05 | 2741 | 2772 | 2756 | 2744 | 2713 | - 31 | | FU 09 | 2663 | 2683 | 2675 | 2672 | 2657 | - 15 | | FU 01 - 05 | - | 70 | 62 | 52 | 38 | - 14 | | FU 05 - 09 | 78 | 89 | 81 | 72 | 56 | - 16 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 151 | - 159 | - 143 | - 124 | - 94 | 30 | [2] Domestic LU | Product | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/27 | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3224 | 3257 | 3273 | 3246 | 3255 | 9 | | LU 05 | 3230 | 3262 | 3237 | 3212 | 3223 | 11 | | LU 09 | 3235 | 3272 | 3262 | 3235 | 3237 | 2 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 6 | - 5 | 36 | 34 | 32 | - 2 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 5 | - 10 | - 25 | - 23 | - 14 | 9 | | LU 09 - 01 | 11 | 15 | - 11 | - 11 | - 18 | - 7 | [3]