燃料油EW价差

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燃料油早报-20250924
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 00:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst oscillated, the near - month spread oscillated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again and fluctuated widely recently, and the domestic and foreign near - months of FU oscillated. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The spread was weakly sorted, the domestic and foreign prices of LU rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis oscillated. From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue decreased, floating storage oscillated, ARA residue inventory decreased slightly, EIA residue decreased slightly, Fujairah inventory decreased, and high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Supported by logistics reshaping and Singapore's high - sulfur marine fuel demand, the EW spread has been repaired. Recently, refinery feedstock purchases have supported the 380 cracking level, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and domestic FU should have a short - term domestic and foreign oscillating and bullish mindset. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas was in line with expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis oscillated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, the domestic and foreign spreads of LU can be expanded on dips, and attention should be paid to the quota usage [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From 2025/09/16 to 2025/09/17, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed from 385.64 to 384.75 with a change of - 0.89; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed from 443.49 to 441.33 with a change of - 2.16; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 7.14 to - 6.96 with a change of 0.18; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 686.03 to 679.88 with a change of - 6.15; for Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 242.54 to - 238.55 with a change of 3.99; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 25.32 to 24.97 with a change of - 0.35; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 57.85 to 56.58 with a change of - 1.27 [1]. - From 2025/09/18 to 2025/09/22, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed from 383.35 to 386.97 with a change of 3.62; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed from 434.21 to 427.29 with a change of - 6.92; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 6.64 to - 4.97 with a change of 1.67; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 677.55 to 664.85 with a change of - 12.7; for Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 243.34 to - 237.56 with a change of 5.78; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 25.18 to 24.40 with a change of - 0.78; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 50.86 to 40.32 with a change of - 10.54 [1][9]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - For Singapore 380cst M1 from 2025/09/16 to 2025/09/22, the price changed from 392.01 to 393.02 with a change of 1.01; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed from 403.72 to 403.27 with a change of - 0.45; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed from 469.70 to 465.33 with a change of - 4.37; for Singapore Gasoil M1, it changed from 87.75 to 87.43 with a change of - 0.32; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed from - 5.19 to - 4.47 with a change of 0.72; for Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 179.65 to - 181.65 with a change of - 2 [1]. - For Singapore fuel oil spot from 2025/09/16 to 2025/09/22, FOB 380cst changed from 393.21 to 393.48 with a change of 0.27; FOB VLSFO changed from 472.39 to 463.33 with a change of - 9.06; the 380 basis changed from - 1.65 to 0.60 with a change of 2.25; the high - sulfur internal - external spread on 2025/09/17 was 7.6, on 2025/09/18 was 7.5, and on 2025/09/22 was 6.0; the low - sulfur internal - external spread on 2025/09/17 was 9.3, on 2025/09/18 was 9.7, and on 2025/09/22 was 9.7 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From 2025/09/16 to 2025/09/22, for FU 01, the price changed from 2795 to 2784 with a change of - 11; for FU 05, it changed from 2751 to 2743 with a change of - 8; for FU 09, it changed from 2700 to 2697 with a change of - 3; for FU 01 - 05, it changed from 44 to 41 with a change of - 3; for FU 05 - 09, it changed from 51 to 46 with a change of - 5; for FU 09 - 01, it changed from - 95 to - 87 with a change of 8 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From 2025/09/16 to 2025/09/22, for LU 01, the price changed from 3368 to 3351 with a change of - 17; for LU 05, it changed from 3341 to 3342 with a change of 1; for LU 09, it changed from 3345 to 3306 with a change of - 39; for LU 01 - 05, it changed from 27 to 9 with a change of - 18; for LU 05 - 09, it changed from - 4 to 36 with a change of 40; for LU 09 - 01, it changed from - 23 to - 45 with a change of - 22 [3].
燃料油早报-20250902
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 04:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst oscillated strongly, the near - month spread strengthened slightly, the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the impact of US sanctions on delivery warehouses, FU10 soared and then declined. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated, the LU internal - external spread fluctuated around 10 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis began to rebound [4]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, floating storage decreased, ARA's residue inventory remained flat, floating storage inventory increased significantly, and EIA's residue began to accumulate. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread was still being repaired, and the domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess. Be vigilant against over - heating sentiment. The new round of sanctions has a large potential impact on the supply of heavy crude oil in China, providing some support for the valuation of Asian fuel oil. This week, LU maintained an oscillation, the external MF0.5 basis began to rebound, and the opportunity for the low - sulfur to high - sulfur spread to widen in the fourth quarter can be noted [5]. 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 383.86 | 388.11 | - 0.95 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 452.63 | 456.37 | 0.00 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.45 | - 6.40 | - 0.26 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 651.89 | 658.54 | 4.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 199.26 | - 202.17 | - 4.38 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.75 | 22.05 | - 0.10 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 68.77 | 68.26 | 0.95 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 397.90 | 398.02 | - 3.14 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 410.84 | 412.08 | - 4.08 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 487.99 | 482.37 | - 3.40 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 86.31 | 85.23 | - 0.71 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 5.01 | - 4.43 | 0.05 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 150.70 | - 148.33 | 1.86 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 396.25 | 397.89 | - 1.96 | | FOB VLSFO | 489.51 | 485.45 | - 2.60 | | 380 Basis | - 2.00 | - 0.40 | 0.70 | | High - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 4.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | | Low - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 9.5 | 14.9 | 6.9 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2842 | 2824 | 12 | | FU 05 | 2799 | 2782 | 9 | | FU 09 | 2827 | 2737 | 2 | | FU 01 - 05 | 43 | 42 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 28 | 45 | 7 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 15 | - 87 | - 10 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3488 | 3451 | - 28 | | LU 05 | 3451 | 3398 | - 37 | | LU 09 | 3460 | 3374 | 62 | | LU 01 - 05 | 37 | 53 | 9 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 9 | 24 | - 99 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 28 | - 77 | 90 | [4]
燃料油早报-20250825
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened, the near - month spread weakened (9 - 10 at 0.75 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 3.25 USD/ton), the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the new round of US sanctions on Iran (covering Dongjiakou and Yangshan Shengang), the near - month internal - external spread of FU fluctuated greatly, and the 09 contract once returned above par. [5][6] - The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated (9 - 10 at 2 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 2.75 USD/ton), and the internal - external spread of LU strengthened slightly to 10 USD. [6] - Fundamentally, Singapore's land - based residue inventory continued to decline, floating storage inventory decreased significantly, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. The high - sulfur bunker volume in Singapore in July increased by 15% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year. [6] - The land - based inventory in Fujairah, Middle East decreased significantly, and floating storage decreased significantly. This week, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and UAE's shipments oscillated. [6] - US residue inventory increased slightly but remained at the lowest level in the same period of history, ARA ports decreased slightly, and floating storage increased slightly. [6] - The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still recovering. There was still a large amount of FU delivery cargo, and attention should be paid to subsequent delivery changes. [6] - The new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on domestic heavy crude oil, providing a certain support for the valuation of Asian fuel oil. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of external MF0.5 oscillated at a low level, and the internal - external spread of LU oscillated. In the short term, opportunities for the expansion of high - sulfur 380 EW could still be concerned. [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 18th to 22nd, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 7.74, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 8.57, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by 0.41, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by 11.52, Rotterdam VLSFO - G M1 changed by - 2.95, LGO - Brent M1 changed by 0.07, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by 0.83. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 18th to 22nd, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by 2.60, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by 2.04, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by 2.59, Singapore GO M1 changed by 0.94, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by 0.04, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed by - 4.37. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From August 18th to 22nd, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed by 2.46, FOB VLSFO price changed by 4.18, 380 basis changed by - 0.60, high - sulfur internal - external spread changed by 4.3, and low - sulfur internal - external spread changed by 3.7. [4] Domestic FU Data - From August 18th to 22nd, 2025, FU 01 changed by 33, FU 05 changed by 17, FU 09 changed by 38, FU 01 - 05 changed by 16, FU 05 - 09 changed by - 21, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 5. [4] Domestic LU Data - From August 18th to 22nd, 2025, LU 01 changed by 19, LU 05 changed by - 29, LU 09 changed by 12, LU 01 - 05 changed by 48, LU 05 - 09 changed by - 41, and LU 09 - 01 changed by - 7. [5]