燃料油日报 | 2026-03-06 高硫燃料油裂解价差达到历史高位 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.32%，报3845元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.28%，报4315 元/吨。 当前市场主要矛盾在于中东地缘局势，尤其是霍尔木兹海峡的通行情况。昨日伊朗高官表示并未封锁霍尔木兹海 峡，但革命卫队方面表示禁止美以欧船只通过海峡。目前形势仍不明朗，区域依然处于高风险状态，参考Kpler数 据来看通过船只数量维持低位。 由于高硫燃料油是伊朗乃至波斯湾国家出口的重要产品之一，供应面临的风险敞口较大，短期地缘溢价受到显著 抬升，外盘高硫燃料油对Brent裂解价差持续走高，达到历史高位水平。但需要注意经过连续大涨后盘面已进入高 波动阶段，消息面的变化随时可能导致趋势转向。 低硫燃料油方面，虽然中东地区生产的燃料油以高硫为主，低硫燃料油供应受到的直接影响相对高硫油小一些， 但市场情绪溢价依然会跟随原油端整体抬升。此外，柴油裂解价差大涨对低硫燃料油存在间接提振。 策略 高硫方面：短期震荡偏强，关注伊朗局势走向 低硫方面：短期震荡偏强，关注伊朗局势走向 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风 ...

| × | | --- | | 免责声明 15 | | --- | 能化板块研发报告 基本面弱势维持，地缘仍为主要利多驱动 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 高硫燃料油 1 月上旬价格跟随原油成本上行，高硫裂解维持-10 至-7 美金/桶环比低位，同比中位，体现出其在一季度高库存弱需求的弱季节性 基本面现状。1 月下旬，伊朗地缘局势及俄罗斯制裁加剧，地缘动荡及关税 威胁均可能导致大量燃料油滞留在供应地，市场利多情绪增长。 低硫燃料油 1 月整体跟随原油成本波动，自身供应增长同时需求无驱 动。Al-Zour 产能回归后低硫生产及出口达到历史新高。Dangote 炼厂汽 油装置 1 月整月处于检修状态，低硫出口也相应增长，新加坡低硫库存累 积。裂解维持在 3 至 5 美金/桶，同比极低位震荡；贴水环比上月上行约 2 美金/吨但也处于同期最低位水平。 【市场展望】 高硫燃料油裂解受到市场需求抬升及地缘供应担忧的支撑而上行至同 期高位，但一季度高库存弱需求基本面现状仍存，重点关注伊朗及俄罗斯主 要供应地区近端的物流变化情况。低硫燃料油供应充裕维持，关注寒潮背景 下相较于天然气的经济性暂无强支撑出现。地缘仍为最主要利多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, there was a significant accumulation of residual oil in Singapore, a significant reduction in high-sulfur floating storage, a slight accumulation of residual oil in ARA, a reduction in residual oil in Fujairah, a reduction in high-sulfur floating storage, and a slight accumulation of residual oil in EIA. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium and discount of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, LGO - Brent M1, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -11.43, -7.17, -0.64, -10.95, 3.78, 0.00, and 4.26 respectively [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, Singapore VLSFO M1, Singapore Gasoil M1, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -1.18, -4.13, -3.16, -1.68, 0.79, and 9.27 respectively [1]. - The FOB prices of 380cst and VLSFO, 380 basis, high-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference, and low-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference in Singapore from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were 0.90, -5.39, 0.50, 0.2, and -1.4 respectively [2]. Domestic FU - The prices of FU 01, FU 05, FU 09, FU 01 - 05, FU 05 - 09, and FU 09 - 01 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -38, -46, -48, 8, 2, and -10 respectively [2]. Domestic LU - The prices of LU 01, LU 05, LU 09, LU 01 - 05, LU 05 - 09, and LU 09 - 01 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -52, -73, -53, 21, -20, and -1 respectively [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore weakened rapidly, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then oscillated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO crack dropped rapidly. The EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% crack in Singapore weakened oscillatively this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatively, and the basis strengthened slightly [6]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased. Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased. With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the external market dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week. After the Al Zour refinery caught fire and shut down on October 21st, the Singapore basis has started to rebound recently [7]. - As global residue enters the inventory accumulation cycle, the external crack is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillatory pattern. For FU01, maintain a high - short idea, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 359.79 | 351.60 | 354.27 | 342.52 | 348.30 | 5.78 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 411.23 | 401.83 | 401.58 | 392.05 | 395.61 | 3.56 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.97 | - 7.51 | - 7.11 | - 7.70 | - 7.85 | - 0.15 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 732.42 | 724.68 | 705.27 | 674.04 | 673.82 | - 0.22 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 321.19 | - 322.85 | - 303.69 | - 281.99 | - 278.21 | 3.78 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 33.67 | 34.17 | 31.62 | 28.61 | 26.56 | - 2.05 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 51.44 | 50.23 | 47.31 | 49.53 | 47.31 | - 2.22 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 355.32 | 354.49 | 352.24 | 348.23 | 351.28 | 3.05 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 360.57 | 362.97 | 354.70 | 352.69 | 357.09 | 4.40 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 448.99 | 446.34 | 437.80 | 427.47 | 427.09 | - 0.38 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 93.29 | 95.91 | 94.36 | 88.67 | 87.53 | - 1.14 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 7.45 | - 8.02 | - 7.92 | - 7.06 | - 7.38 | - 0.32 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 241.36 | - 263.39 | - 260.46 | - 228.69 | - 220.63 | 8.06 | [4][10] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 348.12 | 348.03 | 345.42 | 343.36 | 344.02 | 0.66 | | FOB VLSFO | 448.99 | 446.12 | 438.34 | 427.46 | 423.62 | - 3.84 | | 380 Basis | - 6.55 | - 5.80 | - 5.25 | - 4.55 | - 4.00 | 0.55 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 5.9 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | - 1.6 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 | - 2.6 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2558 | 2560 | 2517 | 2502 | 2512 | 10 | | FU 05 | 2606 | 2609 | 2565 | 2539 | 2554 | 15 | | FU 09 | 2579 | 2578 | 2541 | 2513 | 2520 | 7 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 48 | - 49 | - 48 | - 37 | - 42 | - 5 | | FU 05 - 09 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 26 | 34 | 8 | | FU 09 - 01 | 21 | 18 | 24 | 11 | 8 | - 3 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3247 | 3266 | 3139 | 3078 | 3041 | - 37 | | LU 05 | 3223 | 3240 | 3145 | 3085 | 3068 | - 17 | | LU 09 | 3232 | 3246 | 3160 | 3119 | 3108 | - 11 | | LU 01 - 05 | 24 | 26 | - 6 | - 7 | - 27 | - 20 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 9 | - 6 | - 15 | - 34 | - 40 | - 6 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 15 | - 20 | 21 | 41 | 67 | 26 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 2482.00 yuan, closing at 2497.00 yuan, down 1.27% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Dayue Futures predicts that the price gap between high and low sulfur fuel oil will continue to narrow due to a slight recovery in demand for ship fuel, which has led to a rise in spot prices for marine fuel [2]. - Southwest Futures suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for the main fuel oil contract, noting that the previous trading day saw high sulfur fuel oil open high but close lower, remaining below the moving average [2]. - The high sulfur fuel oil market is showing strength, with the 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil trading momentum remaining robust, while the ultra-low sulfur fuel oil market remains stable with slight premium pricing [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The Hi-5 price difference, which measures the premium of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil over 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil, has decreased to around 80 USD per ton, indicating a slight recovery in high sulfur fuel oil [2]. - The cracking spread for ultra-low sulfur fuel oil has dropped to approximately 5.40 USD per barrel, while the cracking spread for 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil has risen to nearly a 7 USD discount amid fluctuating trading [2]. - Reports indicate that four transactions of 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil and one transaction of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil were completed in the Singapore trading window, with no transactions for 180-cst high sulfur fuel oil [2].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst was oscillating at a high level, the spread of nearby months weakened, the basis oscillated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread oscillated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The monthly spread was weakly sorted out, the LU internal - external spread fell to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened [3][4]. - From the fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased, which was at a high level compared to the same period. The floating storage decreased significantly. The ARA residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low level for the same period. The EIA residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level. The inventory in Fujairah slightly increased, which was at a low level compared to the same period. The high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East decreased significantly this week [4]. - Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, but the cracking is supported by raw material procurement. The short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded when the price is low. Pay attention to the quota usage [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS, and other indicators have fluctuated from September 30, 2025, to October 13, 2025. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF dropped from 390.14 on September 30 to 378.78 on October 13 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, etc., have also changed during the same period. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 399.48 on September 30 to 376.28 on October 13 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased from 400.31 to 363.63, and the FOB VLSFO price dropped from 470.02 to 432.26 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 decreased. For example, the price of FU 01 decreased from 2867 to 2700 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 decreased. For example, the price of LU 01 decreased from 3398 to 3196 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated, the near-month spread fluctuated, the basis strengthened, the EW spread fluctuated at a high level, and the internal and external spreads of FU near-month were more volatile due to delivery factors. The low-sulfur cracking weakened rapidly, the spread accelerated to weaken, the internal and external spread of LU was compressed to $6-7 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis fluctuated. From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue decreased by 871,000 barrels, floating storage decreased slightly, ARA residue inventory increased significantly, and EIA residue continued to accumulate. The high-sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provides support, and the EW spread has completed the repair. The internal and external spreads of domestic high-sulfur increased again due to the influence of the delivery warehouse, and the short-term internal and external spread was repaired. This week, LU accelerated its decline, and the external MF0.5 basis was weakly operating. Due to the support of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the United States, the opportunity for the low-sulfur to high-sulfur spread to widen in the fourth quarter can be noted [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed from 375.09 to 384.75, with a change of -0.89 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap and Spot Data - From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, etc. also fluctuated. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed from 392.94 to 397.55. In the Singapore fuel oil spot market, the FOB 380cst price changed from 392.94 to 397.68, with a change of 4.47 [1][2]. Domestic FU and LU Data - From September 11 - 17, 2025, for domestic FU, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 all increased to varying degrees, such as FU 01 increasing from 2802 to 2831, with a change of 36. For domestic LU, the prices of LU 01 and LU 05 increased significantly, while LU 09 increased slightly. For example, LU 01 increased from 3364 to 3432, with a change of 64 [2][3].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated weakly, the near-month spread continued to strengthen, the basis rebounded and then fluctuated, the EW spread continued to strengthen, and the FU internal and external spread was affected by the delivery warehouse. The low-sulfur cracking fluctuated, the monthly spread fluctuated weakly, and the LU internal and external spread fluctuated around 9 US dollars. The MF0.5 basis fluctuated [5]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage decreased slightly, ARA residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage inventories increased significantly, and EIA residual oil decreased slightly. The global supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread repair was completed, and the domestic high-sulfur spot was still in excess. Be wary of overheated sentiment [6]. - This week, LU remained weak, and the external MF0.5 basis remained volatile. Due to the support of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the United States, the opportunity of the low-sulfur to high-sulfur spread widening in the fourth quarter can be concerned [6]. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO Swap M1 | -3.05 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | -6.29 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.43 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -14.80 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 | 8.51 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.89 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -3.24 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -6.62 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -8.09 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -6.87 | | Singapore GO M1 | -1.33 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.35 | | Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 | 2.97 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -3.96 | | FOB VLSFO | -2.86 | | 380 Basis | -0.75 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 16 | | FU 05 | 13 | | FU 09 | 5 | | FU 01 - 05 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | 8 | | FU 09 - 01 | -11 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -6 | | LU 05 | -6 | | LU 09 | -10 | | LU 01 - 05 | 0 | | LU 05 - 09 | 4 | | LU 09 - 01 | -4 | [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened in a fluctuating manner, the nearby monthly spread continued to strengthen, the basis fluctuated after a rebound, the EW spread continued to strengthen, and the FU internal - external spread was affected by the delivery warehouse. The low - sulfur cracking fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened in a fluctuating manner, and the LU internal - external spread fluctuated around 9 US dollars. The MF0.5 basis fluctuated [6]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage decreased slightly, ARA residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage inventories increased significantly, and EIA residual oil decreased slightly. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread repair was completed, and the domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess. One should be vigilant against over - heating sentiment. This week, LU remained weak, the external MF0.5 basis remained volatile. Due to the support of European and American gasoline and diesel cracking, one can pay attention to the opportunity of the low - sulfur to high - sulfur spread widening in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/09/04 | 2025/09/05 | 2025/09/08 | 2025/09/09 | 2025/09/10 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 376.87 | 366.78 | 372.49 | 379.86 | 382.27 | 2.41 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 442.59 | 431.93 | 439.86 | 439.55 | 439.10 | - 0.45 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 7.25 | - 6.98 | - 7.20 | - 6.70 | - 6.95 | - 0.25 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 665.68 | 651.05 | 662.46 | 670.83 | 670.27 | - 0.56 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 223.09 | - 219.12 | - 222.60 | - 231.28 | - 231.17 | 0.11 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 24.02 | 23.59 | 24.62 | 25.35 | 24.25 | - 1.10 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 65.72 | 65.15 | 67.37 | 59.69 | 56.83 | - 2.86 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/09/04 | 2025/09/05 | 2025/09/08 | 2025/09/09 | 2025/09/10 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 387.61 | 388.79 | 388.46 | 395.12 | 396.58 | 1.46 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 398.86 | 398.59 | 397.67 | 399.61 | 406.58 | 6.97 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 475.19 | 471.33 | 468.78 | 471.70 | 468.91 | - 2.79 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 86.84 | 86.70 | 86.66 | 87.38 | 87.92 | 0.54 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 5.59 | - 5.05 | - 4.94 | - 4.25 | - 4.55 | - 0.30 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 167.43 | - 170.25 | - 172.50 | - 174.91 | - 181.70 | - 6.79 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/09/04 | 2025/09/05 | 2025/09/08 | 2025/09/09 | 2025/09/10 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 387.09 | 388.16 | 388.92 | 396.64 | 396.90 | 0.26 | | FOB VLSFO | 474.28 | 468.87 | 468.99 | 469.80 | 466.00 | - 3.80 | | 380 Basis | - 1.00 | - 0.95 | - 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 0.10 | | High - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 6.0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 6.4 | - | - | | Low - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 9.4 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 9.8 | - | - | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/09/04 | 2025/09/05 | 2025/09/08 | 2025/09/09 | 2025/09/10 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2760 | 2759 | 2767 | 2766 | 2786 | 20 | | FU 05 | 2721 | 2719 | 2721 | 2724 | 2741 | 17 | | FU 09 | 2694 | 2695 | 2679 | 2678 | 2697 | 19 | | FU 01 - 05 | 39 | 40 | 46 | 42 | 45 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | 27 | - | 42 | 46 | 44 | - 2 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 66 | - 64 | - 88 | - 88 | - 89 | - 1 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/09/04 | 2025/09/05 | 2025/09/08 | 2025/09/09 | 2025/09/10 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3395 | 3375 | 3385 | 3367 | 3370 | 3 | | LU 05 | 3359 | 3343 | 3347 | 3335 | 3339 | 4 | | LU 09 | 3341 | 3321 | 3344 | 3330 | 3331 | 1 | | LU 01 - 05 | 36 | 32 | 38 | 32 | 31 | - 1 | | LU 05 - 09 | 18 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 54 | - 54 | - 41 | - 37 | - 39 | - 2 | [6]