| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/08 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/12/30 | 326.83 | 371.16 | -9.93 | 607.93 | -236.77 | 21.96 | 44.33 | | 2025/12/31 | 328.49 | 371.99 | -9.55 | 601.64 | -229.65 | 21.80 | 43.50 | | 2026/01/05 | 328.36 | 377.83 | -9.43 | 600.70 | -222.87 | 21.06 | 49.47 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore weakened rapidly, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then oscillated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO crack dropped rapidly. The EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% crack in Singapore weakened oscillatively this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatively, and the basis strengthened slightly [6]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased. Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased. With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the external market dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week. After the Al Zour refinery caught fire and shut down on October 21st, the Singapore basis has started to rebound recently [7]. - As global residue enters the inventory accumulation cycle, the external crack is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillatory pattern. For FU01, maintain a high - short idea, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 359.79 | 351.60 | 354.27 | 342.52 | 348.30 | 5.78 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 411.23 | 401.83 | 401.58 | 392.05 | 395.61 | 3.56 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.97 | - 7.51 | - 7.11 | - 7.70 | - 7.85 | - 0.15 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 732.42 | 724.68 | 705.27 | 674.04 | 673.82 | - 0.22 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 321.19 | - 322.85 | - 303.69 | - 281.99 | - 278.21 | 3.78 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 33.67 | 34.17 | 31.62 | 28.61 | 26.56 | - 2.05 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 51.44 | 50.23 | 47.31 | 49.53 | 47.31 | - 2.22 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 355.32 | 354.49 | 352.24 | 348.23 | 351.28 | 3.05 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 360.57 | 362.97 | 354.70 | 352.69 | 357.09 | 4.40 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 448.99 | 446.34 | 437.80 | 427.47 | 427.09 | - 0.38 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 93.29 | 95.91 | 94.36 | 88.67 | 87.53 | - 1.14 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 7.45 | - 8.02 | - 7.92 | - 7.06 | - 7.38 | - 0.32 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 241.36 | - 263.39 | - 260.46 | - 228.69 | - 220.63 | 8.06 | [4][10] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 348.12 | 348.03 | 345.42 | 343.36 | 344.02 | 0.66 | | FOB VLSFO | 448.99 | 446.12 | 438.34 | 427.46 | 423.62 | - 3.84 | | 380 Basis | - 6.55 | - 5.80 | - 5.25 | - 4.55 | - 4.00 | 0.55 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 5.9 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | - 1.6 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 | - 2.6 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2558 | 2560 | 2517 | 2502 | 2512 | 10 | | FU 05 | 2606 | 2609 | 2565 | 2539 | 2554 | 15 | | FU 09 | 2579 | 2578 | 2541 | 2513 | 2520 | 7 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 48 | - 49 | - 48 | - 37 | - 42 | - 5 | | FU 05 - 09 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 26 | 34 | 8 | | FU 09 - 01 | 21 | 18 | 24 | 11 | 8 | - 3 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3247 | 3266 | 3139 | 3078 | 3041 | - 37 | | LU 05 | 3223 | 3240 | 3145 | 3085 | 3068 | - 17 | | LU 09 | 3232 | 3246 | 3160 | 3119 | 3108 | - 11 | | LU 01 - 05 | 24 | 26 | - 6 | - 7 | - 27 | - 20 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 9 | - 6 | - 15 | - 34 | - 40 | - 6 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 15 | - 20 | 21 | 41 | 67 | 26 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 2482.00 yuan, closing at 2497.00 yuan, down 1.27% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Dayue Futures predicts that the price gap between high and low sulfur fuel oil will continue to narrow due to a slight recovery in demand for ship fuel, which has led to a rise in spot prices for marine fuel [2]. - Southwest Futures suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for the main fuel oil contract, noting that the previous trading day saw high sulfur fuel oil open high but close lower, remaining below the moving average [2]. - The high sulfur fuel oil market is showing strength, with the 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil trading momentum remaining robust, while the ultra-low sulfur fuel oil market remains stable with slight premium pricing [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The Hi-5 price difference, which measures the premium of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil over 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil, has decreased to around 80 USD per ton, indicating a slight recovery in high sulfur fuel oil [2]. - The cracking spread for ultra-low sulfur fuel oil has dropped to approximately 5.40 USD per barrel, while the cracking spread for 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil has risen to nearly a 7 USD discount amid fluctuating trading [2]. - Reports indicate that four transactions of 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil and one transaction of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil were completed in the Singapore trading window, with no transactions for 180-cst high sulfur fuel oil [2].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst was oscillating at a high level, the spread of nearby months weakened, the basis oscillated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread oscillated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The monthly spread was weakly sorted out, the LU internal - external spread fell to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened [3][4]. - From the fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased, which was at a high level compared to the same period. The floating storage decreased significantly. The ARA residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low level for the same period. The EIA residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level. The inventory in Fujairah slightly increased, which was at a low level compared to the same period. The high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East decreased significantly this week [4]. - Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, but the cracking is supported by raw material procurement. The short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded when the price is low. Pay attention to the quota usage [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS, and other indicators have fluctuated from September 30, 2025, to October 13, 2025. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF dropped from 390.14 on September 30 to 378.78 on October 13 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, etc., have also changed during the same period. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 399.48 on September 30 to 376.28 on October 13 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased from 400.31 to 363.63, and the FOB VLSFO price dropped from 470.02 to 432.26 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 decreased. For example, the price of FU 01 decreased from 2867 to 2700 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 decreased. For example, the price of LU 01 decreased from 3398 to 3196 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated, the near-month spread fluctuated, the basis strengthened, the EW spread fluctuated at a high level, and the internal and external spreads of FU near-month were more volatile due to delivery factors. The low-sulfur cracking weakened rapidly, the spread accelerated to weaken, the internal and external spread of LU was compressed to $6-7 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis fluctuated. From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue decreased by 871,000 barrels, floating storage decreased slightly, ARA residue inventory increased significantly, and EIA residue continued to accumulate. The high-sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provides support, and the EW spread has completed the repair. The internal and external spreads of domestic high-sulfur increased again due to the influence of the delivery warehouse, and the short-term internal and external spread was repaired. This week, LU accelerated its decline, and the external MF0.5 basis was weakly operating. Due to the support of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the United States, the opportunity for the low-sulfur to high-sulfur spread to widen in the fourth quarter can be noted [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed from 375.09 to 384.75, with a change of -0.89 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap and Spot Data - From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, etc. also fluctuated. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed from 392.94 to 397.55. In the Singapore fuel oil spot market, the FOB 380cst price changed from 392.94 to 397.68, with a change of 4.47 [1][2]. Domestic FU and LU Data - From September 11 - 17, 2025, for domestic FU, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 all increased to varying degrees, such as FU 01 increasing from 2802 to 2831, with a change of 36. For domestic LU, the prices of LU 01 and LU 05 increased significantly, while LU 09 increased slightly. For example, LU 01 increased from 3364 to 3432, with a change of 64 [2][3].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated weakly, the near-month spread continued to strengthen, the basis rebounded and then fluctuated, the EW spread continued to strengthen, and the FU internal and external spread was affected by the delivery warehouse. The low-sulfur cracking fluctuated, the monthly spread fluctuated weakly, and the LU internal and external spread fluctuated around 9 US dollars. The MF0.5 basis fluctuated [5]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage decreased slightly, ARA residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage inventories increased significantly, and EIA residual oil decreased slightly. The global supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread repair was completed, and the domestic high-sulfur spot was still in excess. Be wary of overheated sentiment [6]. - This week, LU remained weak, and the external MF0.5 basis remained volatile. Due to the support of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the United States, the opportunity of the low-sulfur to high-sulfur spread widening in the fourth quarter can be concerned [6]. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO Swap M1 | -3.05 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | -6.29 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.43 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -14.80 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 | 8.51 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.89 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -3.24 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -6.62 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -8.09 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -6.87 | | Singapore GO M1 | -1.33 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.35 | | Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 | 2.97 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -3.96 | | FOB VLSFO | -2.86 | | 380 Basis | -0.75 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 16 | | FU 05 | 13 | | FU 09 | 5 | | FU 01 - 05 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | 8 | | FU 09 - 01 | -11 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -6 | | LU 05 | -6 | | LU 09 | -10 | | LU 01 - 05 | 0 | | LU 05 - 09 | 4 | | LU 09 - 01 | -4 | [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened in a fluctuating manner, the nearby monthly spread continued to strengthen, the basis fluctuated after a rebound, the EW spread continued to strengthen, and the FU internal - external spread was affected by the delivery warehouse. The low - sulfur cracking fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened in a fluctuating manner, and the LU internal - external spread fluctuated around 9 US dollars. The MF0.5 basis fluctuated [6]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage decreased slightly, ARA residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage inventories increased significantly, and EIA residual oil decreased slightly. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread repair was completed, and the domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess. One should be vigilant against over - heating sentiment. This week, LU remained weak, the external MF0.5 basis remained volatile. Due to the support of European and American gasoline and diesel cracking, one can pay attention to the opportunity of the low - sulfur to high - sulfur spread widening in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/09/04 | 2025/09/05 | 2025/09/08 | 2025/09/09 | 2025/09/10 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 376.87 | 366.78 | 372.49 | 379.86 | 382.27 | 2.41 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 442.59 | 431.93 | 439.86 | 439.55 | 439.10 | - 0.45 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 7.25 | - 6.98 | - 7.20 | - 6.70 | - 6.95 | - 0.25 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 665.68 | 651.05 | 662.46 | 670.83 | 670.27 | - 0.56 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 223.09 | - 219.12 | - 222.60 | - 231.28 | - 231.17 | 0.11 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 24.02 | 23.59 | 24.62 | 25.35 | 24.25 | - 1.10 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 65.72 | 65.15 | 67.37 | 59.69 | 56.83 | - 2.86 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/09/04 | 2025/09/05 | 2025/09/08 | 2025/09/09 | 2025/09/10 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 387.61 | 388.79 | 388.46 | 395.12 | 396.58 | 1.46 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 398.86 | 398.59 | 397.67 | 399.61 | 406.58 | 6.97 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 475.19 | 471.33 | 468.78 | 471.70 | 468.91 | - 2.79 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 86.84 | 86.70 | 86.66 | 87.38 | 87.92 | 0.54 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 5.59 | - 5.05 | - 4.94 | - 4.25 | - 4.55 | - 0.30 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 167.43 | - 170.25 | - 172.50 | - 174.91 | - 181.70 | - 6.79 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/09/04 | 2025/09/05 | 2025/09/08 | 2025/09/09 | 2025/09/10 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 387.09 | 388.16 | 388.92 | 396.64 | 396.90 | 0.26 | | FOB VLSFO | 474.28 | 468.87 | 468.99 | 469.80 | 466.00 | - 3.80 | | 380 Basis | - 1.00 | - 0.95 | - 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 0.10 | | High - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 6.0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 6.4 | - | - | | Low - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 9.4 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 9.8 | - | - | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/09/04 | 2025/09/05 | 2025/09/08 | 2025/09/09 | 2025/09/10 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2760 | 2759 | 2767 | 2766 | 2786 | 20 | | FU 05 | 2721 | 2719 | 2721 | 2724 | 2741 | 17 | | FU 09 | 2694 | 2695 | 2679 | 2678 | 2697 | 19 | | FU 01 - 05 | 39 | 40 | 46 | 42 | 45 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | 27 | - | 42 | 46 | 44 | - 2 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 66 | - 64 | - 88 | - 88 | - 89 | - 1 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/09/04 | 2025/09/05 | 2025/09/08 | 2025/09/09 | 2025/09/10 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3395 | 3375 | 3385 | 3367 | 3370 | 3 | | LU 05 | 3359 | 3343 | 3347 | 3335 | 3339 | 4 | | LU 09 | 3341 | 3321 | 3344 | 3330 | 3331 | 1 | | LU 01 - 05 | 36 | 32 | 38 | 32 | 31 | - 1 | | LU 05 - 09 | 18 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 54 | - 54 | - 41 | - 37 | - 39 | - 2 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated strongly, the near - month spread strengthened slightly, the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the impact of US sanctions on the delivery warehouse, FU10 rose sharply and then fell. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread fluctuated, the LU internal - external spread fluctuated around $10, and the MF0.5 basis began to rebound [3][4]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, floating storage decreased, ARA's residue inventory remained flat, floating storage inventory increased significantly, and EIA residue began to accumulate. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still being repaired. The domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess, and over - heated sentiment should be vigilant. The new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on the domestic heavy crude oil supply, providing some support for the Asian fuel oil valuation [4]. - This week, LU maintained a volatile trend, and the external MF0.5 basis began to rebound. Opportunities for the spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil to widen in the fourth quarter could be focused on [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by $8.64, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased by $8.39, and other price - related indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Data**: The prices of Singapore 380cst M1 and other related fuel oil products also changed during the same period. For example, from August 28 to September 3, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $11.56, and the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by $11.75 [1][9]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $6.17, and the FOB VLSFO price decreased by $6.40 [2]. - **Domestic FU Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the price of FU 01 decreased by 7, the price of FU 05 decreased by 10, and the price of FU 09 decreased by 8 [2]. - **Domestic LU Data**: From August 28 to September 3, the price of LU 01 decreased by 17, the price of LU 05 decreased by 10, and the price of LU 09 increased by 13 [3].

Report Overview Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened, and the near - month spread weakened (9 - 10 at 0.75 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 3.25 USD/ton). The LU maintained a weak trend, with the external MF0.5 basis oscillating at a low level and LU internal - external spread oscillating. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, and the spread oscillated (9 - 10 at 2 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 2.75 USD/ton). The LU internal - external spread strengthened slightly to 10 USD. [5][6] - Fundamentally, Singapore's land - based residue inventory continued to decline, floating storage inventory decreased significantly, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. In July, Singapore's high - sulfur bunkering volume increased by 15% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year. The land - based inventory in Fujairah, Middle East decreased significantly, and floating storage decreased significantly. This week, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and UAE's shipments oscillated. The US residue inventory increased slightly but remained at the lowest level in the same period of history, ARA ports decreased slightly, and floating storage increased slightly. [6] - The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to logistics reshaping, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still being repaired. The FU delivery volume was still relatively large, and attention should be paid to subsequent delivery changes. The new round of sanctions had a relatively large potential impact on domestic heavy crude oil, providing some support for Asian fuel oil valuation. In the short term, opportunities for the expansion of high - sulfur 380 EW could still be monitored. [6] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 386.27 | 382.78 | - 11.30 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 447.87 | 451.36 | - 9.65 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 5.40 | - 6.40 | - 0.35 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 647.20 | 652.30 | - 15.02 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 199.33 | - 200.94 | 5.37 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.39 | 22.75 | - 0.40 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 61.60 | 68.58 | 1.65 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 388.83 | 393.61 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 402.12 | 407.23 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 475.48 | 480.94 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 84.72 | 85.48 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 4.63 | - 4.69 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 151.45 | - 151.61 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 386.10 | 396.25 | - 0.90 | | FOB VLSFO | 474.94 | 489.51 | 1.10 | | 380 Basis | - 2.65 | - 2.00 | 0.55 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | - 1.8 | 4.1 | - 0.4 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.9 | 9.5 | - 1.1 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2719 | 2842 | 11 | | FU 05 | 2712 | 2799 | 9 | | FU 09 | 2687 | 2827 | - 18 | | FU 01 - 05 | 7 | 43 | 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 25 | - 28 | 27 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 32 | - 15 | - 29 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Name | Price on 2025/08/20 | Price on 2025/08/26 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3411 | 3488 | - 3 | | LU 05 | 3376 | 3451 | 2 | | LU 09 | 3422 | 3460 | 57 | | LU 01 - 05 | 35 | 37 | - 5 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 46 | - 9 | - 55 | | LU 09 - 01 | 11 | - 28 | 60 | [5]