1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, be aware of high market volatility [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, be aware of high market volatility [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Although Trump made remarks about the end of the war, the conflict between Iran and the US - Israel has not ceased, and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed. The number of passing oil tankers remains low. Measures such as releasing strategic oil reserves cannot solve the key supply bottleneck [2] - The high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) has relatively prominent exposure and elasticity to geopolitical risks. There is also an incremental substitution demand for natural gas and crude oil in power generation and refinery terminals. The significant increase in the cracking spread of gasoline and diesel (especially diesel) boosts the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil. The tightening of Middle East crude oil supply leads to a decline in the production of low - sulfur fuel oil, and more ships choose ports in Asia - Pacific for refueling, strengthening the market structure [2] - The cracking spread, monthly spread, and spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil have risen significantly. The low - high sulfur price spread has rebounded significantly from a low level. In terms of valuation, low - sulfur fuel oil has more room to reach the historical peak compared to high - sulfur fuel oil [2] 3. Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 9.2% at 4,653 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 14.83% at 5,663 yuan/ton [1] 4. Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance and pay attention to high market volatility [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance and pay attention to high market volatility [3] - No strategies are recommended for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [3] 5. Figures Summary - The report presents multiple figures on fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, including spot prices, swap near - month contracts, monthly spreads, futures contract closing prices, and trading volume and open interest, with units of US dollars/ton or yuan/ton and hands [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The main contradiction in the current market lies in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The situation is still unclear, and the region remains at a high - risk state [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil supply faces a large risk exposure, and the geopolitical premium is significantly elevated. The crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil against Brent on the external market has reached a historical high. After continuous sharp rises, the market has entered a high - volatility stage [1]. - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is less directly affected than high - sulfur fuel oil, but the market sentiment premium will still rise along with the overall crude oil end. The sharp increase in the diesel crack spread indirectly boosts low - sulfur fuel oil [1]. - In the short term, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to be volatile and bullish, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.32% at 3,845 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.28% at 4,315 yuan/ton [1]. - The current market is mainly affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The number of passing ships remains low [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil supply is at high risk, and the crack spread has reached a historical high. After continuous rises, the market is in a high - volatility stage [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is less directly affected, but the market sentiment premium rises with the crude oil end, and the diesel crack spread indirectly boosts it [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term volatility is bullish, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term volatility is bullish, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy provided [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [2]. - Options: No strategy provided [2]. Figures - Figures show various price and trading volume data of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, as well as fuel oil futures in China, including spot prices, swap contracts, monthly spreads, closing prices, and trading volumes [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental weakness of fuel oil persists, with geopolitical factors remaining the main bullish drivers [4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking has risen to a high level for the same period, but the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter still exists. Attention should be paid to the near - term logistics changes in major supply regions such as Iran and Russia. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains abundant, and there is no strong support for its economy compared to natural gas under the background of cold snaps. Geopolitical factors are still the most important bullish drivers, and cost - side risks should be monitored [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Introduction and Overview 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil prices followed the increase in crude oil costs in early January. The high - sulfur cracking remained at a low level of - 10 to - 7 US dollars per barrel on a month - on - month basis and a medium level on a year - on - year basis, reflecting the weak seasonal fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter. In late January, due to the intensification of the Iranian geopolitical situation and Russian sanctions, the bullish sentiment in the market increased. - Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuated with crude oil costs in January. Its supply increased while demand had no drivers. After the return of Al - Zour's production capacity, low - sulfur production and exports reached a historical high. The low - sulfur exports of the Dangote refinery also increased, and the low - sulfur inventory in Singapore accumulated. The cracking remained at 3 to 5 US dollars per barrel, oscillating at an extremely low level year - on - year; the premium increased by about 2 US dollars per ton month - on - month but was still at the lowest level for the same period [5][11]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is supported by the increase in market demand and geopolitical supply concerns and has risen to a high level for the same period. However, the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter still exists. Attention should be paid to the near - term logistics changes in major supply regions such as Iran and Russia. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains abundant. There is no strong support for its economy compared to natural gas under the background of cold snaps. Geopolitical factors are still the most important bullish drivers, and cost - side risks should be monitored [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Strong oscillation, pay attention to geopolitical risks. - Arbitrage: Enter the FU59 positive spread at low prices. Narrow the BU - FU spread at high prices. Narrow the BU - LU spread at high prices. High - sulfur cracking oscillates at a high level, and low - sulfur cracking oscillates at a relatively low level. - Options: None [7][57]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Supply - Due to the continuous Russia - Ukraine conflict and tariff expectations, there is still bullish sentiment in the short - term supply. In the first two weeks of January, the crude oil processing volume decreased month - on - month and was at a medium level year - on - year. - Some refineries were shut down due to attacks, and some refineries resumed operations. The sanctions from Europe and the United States continued, and concerns about fuel oil retention in the market persisted. - In terms of logistics monitoring, the high - sulfur fuel oil exports in the week of January 22 increased by 110,000 tons month - on - month. The expected inflow of fuel oil in Singapore in January remained at a high level. - Mexico's near - term high - sulfur exports decreased and are expected to remain at a low level in February. - The Iranian situation is turbulent, and concerns about high - sulfur fuel oil supply have increased. The exports of high - sulfur fuel oil in Iran rebounded in the week of January 22 [16][17][21][26]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Demand - The demand for high - sulfur marine fuel is stably supported, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth in the number of ships with desulfurization towers. - After the restriction of Venezuelan oil, the market expects that Chinese local refineries may import Iranian and Russian crude oil and fuel oil as substitutes, but the support from feedstock is not strong due to the abundant crude oil quotas at the beginning of the year and the general economic efficiency of high - sulfur fuel oil feedstock [31][36]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The return of the RFCC unit of the Nigerian Dangote refinery was postponed, and the low - sulfur supply remained at a high level. - The low - sulfur supply and exports of the Middle East Al - Zour refinery returned to a high level. - The energy supply in South Sudan is gradually recovering. - In the Pan - Singapore region, the new and restarted production capacities of refineries have been implemented and returned. - The low - sulfur demand has no specific drivers, the marine fuel demand is stable, and the power - generation economy of low - sulfur fuel oil is still inferior to that of natural gas under the background of cold snaps in Europe and the United States, with no strong substitution demand [41][42][43][46][47]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - High - sulfur spot premiums continue to rise, and the on - land inventory in Singapore decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Short - term fuel oil exports and production are expected to be continuously disturbed by geopolitical and macro - strategic factors, and the unilateral fluctuations of fuel oil will intensify. Geopolitical factors are still the most important bullish drivers. - The near - term low - sulfur supply and exports have increased significantly. - Strategy recommendations: Unilateral: Strong oscillation, pay attention to geopolitical risks. Arbitrage: Enter the FU59 positive spread at low prices. Narrow the BU - FU spread at high prices. Narrow the BU - LU spread at high prices. High - sulfur cracking oscillates at a high level, and low - sulfur cracking oscillates at a relatively low level. Options: None [56][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, there was a significant accumulation of residual oil in Singapore, a significant reduction in high-sulfur floating storage, a slight accumulation of residual oil in ARA, a reduction in residual oil in Fujairah, a reduction in high-sulfur floating storage, and a slight accumulation of residual oil in EIA. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium and discount of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, LGO - Brent M1, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -11.43, -7.17, -0.64, -10.95, 3.78, 0.00, and 4.26 respectively [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, Singapore VLSFO M1, Singapore Gasoil M1, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -1.18, -4.13, -3.16, -1.68, 0.79, and 9.27 respectively [1]. - The FOB prices of 380cst and VLSFO, 380 basis, high-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference, and low-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference in Singapore from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were 0.90, -5.39, 0.50, 0.2, and -1.4 respectively [2]. Domestic FU - The prices of FU 01, FU 05, FU 09, FU 01 - 05, FU 05 - 09, and FU 09 - 01 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -38, -46, -48, 8, 2, and -10 respectively [2]. Domestic LU - The prices of LU 01, LU 05, LU 09, LU 01 - 05, LU 05 - 09, and LU 09 - 01 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -52, -73, -53, 21, -20, and -1 respectively [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore weakened rapidly, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then oscillated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO crack dropped rapidly. The EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% crack in Singapore weakened oscillatively this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatively, and the basis strengthened slightly [6]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased. Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased. With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the external market dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week. After the Al Zour refinery caught fire and shut down on October 21st, the Singapore basis has started to rebound recently [7]. - As global residue enters the inventory accumulation cycle, the external crack is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillatory pattern. For FU01, maintain a high - short idea, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 359.79 | 351.60 | 354.27 | 342.52 | 348.30 | 5.78 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 411.23 | 401.83 | 401.58 | 392.05 | 395.61 | 3.56 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.97 | - 7.51 | - 7.11 | - 7.70 | - 7.85 | - 0.15 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 732.42 | 724.68 | 705.27 | 674.04 | 673.82 | - 0.22 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 321.19 | - 322.85 | - 303.69 | - 281.99 | - 278.21 | 3.78 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 33.67 | 34.17 | 31.62 | 28.61 | 26.56 | - 2.05 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 51.44 | 50.23 | 47.31 | 49.53 | 47.31 | - 2.22 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 355.32 | 354.49 | 352.24 | 348.23 | 351.28 | 3.05 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 360.57 | 362.97 | 354.70 | 352.69 | 357.09 | 4.40 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 448.99 | 446.34 | 437.80 | 427.47 | 427.09 | - 0.38 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 93.29 | 95.91 | 94.36 | 88.67 | 87.53 | - 1.14 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 7.45 | - 8.02 | - 7.92 | - 7.06 | - 7.38 | - 0.32 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 241.36 | - 263.39 | - 260.46 | - 228.69 | - 220.63 | 8.06 | [4][10] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 348.12 | 348.03 | 345.42 | 343.36 | 344.02 | 0.66 | | FOB VLSFO | 448.99 | 446.12 | 438.34 | 427.46 | 423.62 | - 3.84 | | 380 Basis | - 6.55 | - 5.80 | - 5.25 | - 4.55 | - 4.00 | 0.55 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 5.9 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | - 1.6 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 | - 2.6 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2558 | 2560 | 2517 | 2502 | 2512 | 10 | | FU 05 | 2606 | 2609 | 2565 | 2539 | 2554 | 15 | | FU 09 | 2579 | 2578 | 2541 | 2513 | 2520 | 7 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 48 | - 49 | - 48 | - 37 | - 42 | - 5 | | FU 05 - 09 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 26 | 34 | 8 | | FU 09 - 01 | 21 | 18 | 24 | 11 | 8 | - 3 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3247 | 3266 | 3139 | 3078 | 3041 | - 37 | | LU 05 | 3223 | 3240 | 3145 | 3085 | 3068 | - 17 | | LU 09 | 3232 | 3246 | 3160 | 3119 | 3108 | - 11 | | LU 01 - 05 | 24 | 26 | - 6 | - 7 | - 27 | - 20 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 9 | - 6 | - 15 | - 34 | - 40 | - 6 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 15 | - 20 | 21 | 41 | 67 | 26 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 2482.00 yuan, closing at 2497.00 yuan, down 1.27% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Dayue Futures predicts that the price gap between high and low sulfur fuel oil will continue to narrow due to a slight recovery in demand for ship fuel, which has led to a rise in spot prices for marine fuel [2]. - Southwest Futures suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for the main fuel oil contract, noting that the previous trading day saw high sulfur fuel oil open high but close lower, remaining below the moving average [2]. - The high sulfur fuel oil market is showing strength, with the 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil trading momentum remaining robust, while the ultra-low sulfur fuel oil market remains stable with slight premium pricing [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The Hi-5 price difference, which measures the premium of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil over 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil, has decreased to around 80 USD per ton, indicating a slight recovery in high sulfur fuel oil [2]. - The cracking spread for ultra-low sulfur fuel oil has dropped to approximately 5.40 USD per barrel, while the cracking spread for 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil has risen to nearly a 7 USD discount amid fluctuating trading [2]. - Reports indicate that four transactions of 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil and one transaction of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil were completed in the Singapore trading window, with no transactions for 180-cst high sulfur fuel oil [2].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst was oscillating at a high level, the spread of nearby months weakened, the basis oscillated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread oscillated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The monthly spread was weakly sorted out, the LU internal - external spread fell to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened [3][4]. - From the fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased, which was at a high level compared to the same period. The floating storage decreased significantly. The ARA residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low level for the same period. The EIA residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level. The inventory in Fujairah slightly increased, which was at a low level compared to the same period. The high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East decreased significantly this week [4]. - Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, but the cracking is supported by raw material procurement. The short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded when the price is low. Pay attention to the quota usage [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS, and other indicators have fluctuated from September 30, 2025, to October 13, 2025. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF dropped from 390.14 on September 30 to 378.78 on October 13 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, etc., have also changed during the same period. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 399.48 on September 30 to 376.28 on October 13 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased from 400.31 to 363.63, and the FOB VLSFO price dropped from 470.02 to 432.26 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 decreased. For example, the price of FU 01 decreased from 2867 to 2700 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 decreased. For example, the price of LU 01 decreased from 3398 to 3196 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated, the near-month spread fluctuated, the basis strengthened, the EW spread fluctuated at a high level, and the internal and external spreads of FU near-month were more volatile due to delivery factors. The low-sulfur cracking weakened rapidly, the spread accelerated to weaken, the internal and external spread of LU was compressed to $6-7 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis fluctuated. From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue decreased by 871,000 barrels, floating storage decreased slightly, ARA residue inventory increased significantly, and EIA residue continued to accumulate. The high-sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provides support, and the EW spread has completed the repair. The internal and external spreads of domestic high-sulfur increased again due to the influence of the delivery warehouse, and the short-term internal and external spread was repaired. This week, LU accelerated its decline, and the external MF0.5 basis was weakly operating. Due to the support of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the United States, the opportunity for the low-sulfur to high-sulfur spread to widen in the fourth quarter can be noted [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed from 375.09 to 384.75, with a change of -0.89 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap and Spot Data - From September 11 - 17, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, etc. also fluctuated. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed from 392.94 to 397.55. In the Singapore fuel oil spot market, the FOB 380cst price changed from 392.94 to 397.68, with a change of 4.47 [1][2]. Domestic FU and LU Data - From September 11 - 17, 2025, for domestic FU, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 all increased to varying degrees, such as FU 01 increasing from 2802 to 2831, with a change of 36. For domestic LU, the prices of LU 01 and LU 05 increased significantly, while LU 09 increased slightly. For example, LU 01 increased from 3364 to 3432, with a change of 64 [2][3].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated weakly, the near-month spread continued to strengthen, the basis rebounded and then fluctuated, the EW spread continued to strengthen, and the FU internal and external spread was affected by the delivery warehouse. The low-sulfur cracking fluctuated, the monthly spread fluctuated weakly, and the LU internal and external spread fluctuated around 9 US dollars. The MF0.5 basis fluctuated [5]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage decreased slightly, ARA residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage inventories increased significantly, and EIA residual oil decreased slightly. The global supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread repair was completed, and the domestic high-sulfur spot was still in excess. Be wary of overheated sentiment [6]. - This week, LU remained weak, and the external MF0.5 basis remained volatile. Due to the support of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the United States, the opportunity of the low-sulfur to high-sulfur spread widening in the fourth quarter can be concerned [6]. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO Swap M1 | -3.05 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | -6.29 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.43 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -14.80 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 | 8.51 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.89 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -3.24 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -6.62 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -8.09 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -6.87 | | Singapore GO M1 | -1.33 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.35 | | Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 | 2.97 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -3.96 | | FOB VLSFO | -2.86 | | 380 Basis | -0.75 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 16 | | FU 05 | 13 | | FU 09 | 5 | | FU 01 - 05 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | 8 | | FU 09 - 01 | -11 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -6 | | LU 05 | -6 | | LU 09 | -10 | | LU 01 - 05 | 0 | | LU 05 - 09 | 4 | | LU 09 - 01 | -4 | [5]