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LPG早报-20250721
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PG futures prices have been oscillating downward. Although the chemical demand outlook is relatively strong, the decline in oil prices and the weakening of international LPG prices have led to a weaker futures market. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4486. The basis has strengthened to 433 (+93). The inter - month reverse arbitrage has strengthened due to weak spot prices and the shift of the main contract. The number of registered warrants is 8804 lots (+500), with 500 lots added by Qingdao Yunda. The external market prices have continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. [1] - Despite the strong chemical demand expectations, under the suppression of weak combustion demand, the domestic LPG market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillating trend. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data Summary - On July 18, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 4530, 4486, and 4610 respectively. The propane CFR South China was 553, propane CIF Japan was 505, MB propane spot was 71, and CP forecast contract price was 538. The price of Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4890, and Shandong alkylated oil was 8000. The daily changes were - 40, 0, 20, - 2, - 2, 1, - 8, 40, 80 respectively. The PG futures price decreased, the monthly spread declined, and the 08 - 09 spread was 63. The US - Far East arbitrage window opened. [1] Weekly View Summary - **Market Trend**: The PG futures market oscillated downward. The domestic LPG market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation due to weak combustion demand, despite strong chemical demand expectations. [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened to 433 (+93), and the inter - month reverse arbitrage strengthened. The number of registered warrants increased to 8804 lots (+500). [1] - **External Market**: The external market prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The regional spreads such as PG - CP, FEI - MB, FEI - CP, and FEI - MOPJ changed, and the US - Asia arbitrage window opened. [1] - **Profit Situation**: The PDH profit improved, while the MTBE export profit declined. [1] - **Inventory and Supply**: Port inventories increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly. The commodity volume decreased by 0.98% due to reduced supply in South China, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China. [1] - **Chemical Demand**: Chemical demand is strong. The PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct), and the alkylation operating rate increased. MTBE export orders increased. [1]
LPG早报-20250620
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:14
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are improving marginally but still face pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Price and Basis Information**: - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4,550 yuan. The PP price has risen, and PDH production profit has improved, while FEI production profit is lower than CP. The PG futures price has increased significantly, and the 07 - 09 spread has changed from -11 to 103. The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Civil gas prices have risen significantly, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4,603 yuan. Shandong shows signs of stabilization; East China is generally weak due to the expected commissioning of Zhenhai Phase II but has marginally improved due to the postponed commissioning of Daxie; South China's spot prices have rebounded due to the impact of typhoons on ship arrivals. The PG futures is strongly running, the basis of the 07 contract has weakened to 221 (-130), and the 07 - 09 spread is now 195 (+10) [1]. - **External Market and Spread Information**: - External market prices have strengthened significantly, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. In terms of spreads, PG - CP has reached 18 US dollars (+27), and FEI - CP is -19 (+31). Freight rates have increased, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has decreased [1]. - Among product spreads, PDH production profit has worsened, FEI production profit is lower than CP; the profitability of alkylated oil has decreased significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit has increased, while isomerization etherification profit has decreased; FEI - MOPJ and naphtha cracking spreads have declined [1]. - **Fundamental Information**: - Both port inventories and factory inventories have decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments have declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future [1]. - Chemical demand has generally improved. The PDH operating rate has increased to 64.3%, the alkylation operating rate has increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production has also increased significantly. A large number of MTBE export orders support the price. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 9,005 lots (-335) [1].