Group 1: Market Data - The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG on July 7, 2025, were 4660, 4529, and 4590 respectively [1] - The propane CFR South China was 580, propane CIF Japan was 539, and MB propane spot was 74 on July 7, 2025 [1] - The CP forecast contract price was 560 on July 7, 2025, and the paper import profit was -122, with a daily change of -46 [1] - The main contract basis was 440 on July 7, 2025, with a daily change of -9 [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The PG futures slightly strengthened, and the monthly spread widened. The 08 - 09 spread was 111 [1] - The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4529 [1] - The PP price declined, FEI and CP prices dropped, while the CP discount increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP rose [1] - The overall futures market was in a weak and volatile state, with a small change in the basis (349) and a slight increase in the August - September spread (97) [1] - The import cost decreased significantly, the FEI offshore discount declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival discount strengthened [1] - The outer - market monthly spread weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio increased [1] - The domestic - foreign price difference strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching -22.75 (+35) [1] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Domestically, port inventory, factory inventory, and external sales volume remained basically flat [1] - PDH operating rate decreased to 65.49% (-5.05pct), with improved profit, and it was expected to increase slightly in the future [1] - The alkylation operating rate remained unchanged, and it was expected to increase due to the planned restart of some devices [1] - Shandong civil LPG price first decreased and then increased (4610), with low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and chemical demand support [1] - East China civil LPG price declined (4529), with a general trading atmosphere, and it was expected to remain weak due to more arrivals and off - season demand [1] - South China civil LPG price fluctuated downward (4660) due to high import cost and weak terminal demand [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are improving marginally but still face pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Price and Basis Information**: - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4,550 yuan. The PP price has risen, and PDH production profit has improved, while FEI production profit is lower than CP. The PG futures price has increased significantly, and the 07 - 09 spread has changed from -11 to 103. The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Civil gas prices have risen significantly, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4,603 yuan. Shandong shows signs of stabilization; East China is generally weak due to the expected commissioning of Zhenhai Phase II but has marginally improved due to the postponed commissioning of Daxie; South China's spot prices have rebounded due to the impact of typhoons on ship arrivals. The PG futures is strongly running, the basis of the 07 contract has weakened to 221 (-130), and the 07 - 09 spread is now 195 (+10) [1]. - **External Market and Spread Information**: - External market prices have strengthened significantly, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. In terms of spreads, PG - CP has reached 18 US dollars (+27), and FEI - CP is -19 (+31). Freight rates have increased, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has decreased [1]. - Among product spreads, PDH production profit has worsened, FEI production profit is lower than CP; the profitability of alkylated oil has decreased significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit has increased, while isomerization etherification profit has decreased; FEI - MOPJ and naphtha cracking spreads have declined [1]. - **Fundamental Information**: - Both port inventories and factory inventories have decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments have declined, and it is expected that out - shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future [1]. - Chemical demand has generally improved. The PDH operating rate has increased to 64.3%, the alkylation operating rate has increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production has also increased significantly. A large number of MTBE export orders support the price. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 9,005 lots (-335) [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the LPG market are marginally improving but still under pressure, with significant geopolitical risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content a) Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: In the civil gas segment, prices in Shandong remained stable at 4610, increased by 61 to 4677 in East China, and decreased by 30 to 4690 in South China. The price of ether - post carbon four decreased by 20 to 4960. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4610. The PP price declined, PDH production profit worsened, and FEI production profit was lower than CP. The PG futures price was revised downwards, the basis of the 07 contract increased by 16 to 228, and the 07 - 09 spread decreased by 18 to 160. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1] - **Weekly Changes**: Civil gas prices rose significantly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil gas at 4603. There were signs of stabilization in Shandong; the market in East China was generally weak due to the expected commissioning of Zhenhai Phase II but improved marginally due to the postponed commissioning of Daxie; the spot market in South China rebounded due to the impact of typhoons on ship arrivals. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 07 contract weakened to 221 (-130), and the 07 - 09 spread was 195 (+10). The external market price strengthened significantly, mainly affected by geopolitical factors. In terms of spreads, PG - CP reached 18 US dollars (+27), and FEI - CP reached -19 (+31). Freight rates increased, and the waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs decreased [1] b) Production Profit and Market Conditions - PDH production profit worsened, and FEI production profit was lower than CP. The profitability of alkylated oil decreased significantly, MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, isomerization etherification profit decreased, and the spreads of FEI - MOPJ and naphtha cracking decreased [1] c) Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Port inventories and factory inventories decreased. Arrivals and external shipments declined, and it is expected that external shipments will increase and arrivals will decrease in the future [1] - **Demand**: Chemical demand improved overall. The operating rate of PDH increased to 64.3%, the operating rate of alkylation increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production increased significantly. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline [1] d) Futures Market - The PG futures price was adjusted. The basis of the 07 contract and the 07 - 09 spread changed. The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9005 lots (-335) [1]