态，本周轮胎企业产能利用率或存小幅走低可能，高温天气以及整体订单增量有限等因素影响，月底仍会 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 有企业存灵活调整排产或检修计划，进而拖拽整体产能利用率小幅走低。br2510合约短线预计在11850-12 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 300区间波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 12010 | 310 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 46705 | 10950 | | | 合成橡胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | 20 | 30 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2490 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 11700 | -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-08-22 EB下游开工再度回升 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-110元/吨（+0）。纯苯港口库存14.40万吨（-0.20万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费173美元/吨 （+0美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费157美元/吨（-1美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差51.6美元/吨（-3.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯 现货-M2价差0元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1845元/吨（-25），酚酮生产利润-701元/吨（+50），苯胺生产利润-204元/吨（-43）， 己二酸生产利润-1331元/吨（+5）。己内酰胺开工率91.86%（-1.86%），苯酚开工率78.00%（+1.00%），苯胺开工率 70.10%（-1.47%），己二酸开工率65.50%（+3.80%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差26元/吨（+31元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-298元/吨（+45元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存161500吨（+12700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存76500吨（+7000吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率78.5%（+0.4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with the spot price center shifting downward. The PG futures market rebounds due to the improvement in the international spot market and the low valuation of the futures. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile consolidation trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to August 21, 2025, the prices of South China LPG remained at 4520, East China LPG increased from 4410 to 4398, and Shandong LPG rose from 4420 to 4500. The CFR South price of propane increased from 563 to 573, and the CIF Japan price of propane rose from 527 to 540 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On August 21, compared with the previous day, the prices of South China LPG remained unchanged, East China LPG increased by 8, Shandong LPG increased by 20, the CFR South price of propane increased by 8, and the CIF Japan price of propane increased by 4 [1]. - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market shows a small rebound. The basis strengthened to 105 (-31), and the 09 - 10 spread was -493 (-29). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4398 on Thursday [1]. Weekly View - **Market Conditions**: The international market is volatile, with freight rates generally in a high - level volatile state. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs has decreased. The FEI and CP have increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has weakened [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The unloading volume has decreased, chemical demand has slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased by 2.06%. Refinery commodity volume has decreased by 1.68%. Factory inventories have increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate is 76.33% (+2.49pct), and the combustion demand is still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].

Group 1: Report Summary - The short - term supply of pure benzene in China is expected to exceed demand, putting pressure on prices; in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction may improve as new downstream capacity in August is higher than that of pure benzene [2] - The supply of crude oil exceeds demand, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks [2] - Technically, for BZ2603, attention should be paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6300 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract is 6205 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the settlement price is 6177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2] - The trading volume of the main pure benzene contract is 11282 lots, up 7924 lots; the open interest is 13106 lots, down 877 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market is 6250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it is 6095 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea is 732 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China is 746.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 67.6 US dollars/barrel, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 574.5 US dollars/ton, up 3.75 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 44.52 tons, down 0.08 tons [2] - The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.6 tons, down 1.7 tons; the production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan [2] - The production profit of pure benzene is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.18%, up 0.45%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2% [2] Group 3: Industry News - China will comprehensively rectify the petrochemical and refining industries, phasing out small facilities and upgrading backward capacity while directing investment towards advanced materials [2] - From August 8 - 14, the profit of petroleum benzene in China was 689 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton; the BZ2603 fluctuated widely and closed at 6205 yuan/ton [2] - As of August 18, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 14.4 tons, down 1.37% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory continues to decline slightly, and its basis has stabilized and strengthened recently. From August to September, there are maintenance plans for aromatics in South Korea, and the import pressure has not increased further. The overall downstream operating rate remains high, and the demand is at a seasonal high, which drives the de - stocking of pure benzene, but the de - stocking range is expected to be limited. - For styrene, the port inventory did not continue to decline at the beginning of the week, and the port pickup volume did not continue to increase. Among the downstream products, the operating rates of EPS and PS have rebounded, and their inventory pressures have been relieved, while ABS still maintains a state of high inventory and low operating rate [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Pure benzene's main basis is - 87 yuan/ton (+4), and the spot - M2 spread is 5 yuan/ton (+0). Styrene's main basis is 54 yuan/ton (+14) [1]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 176 dollars/ton (+0), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 161 dollars/ton (+0). The profit of styrene's non - integrated production is - 327 yuan/ton (+10), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 14.40 tons (- 0.20), and styrene's East China port inventory is 161,500 tons (+12,700), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate of pure benzene downstream such as caprolactam is 93.72% (+5.31), and styrene's operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - Among styrene's downstream products, EPS production profit is 93 yuan/ton (- 160), PS production profit is - 107 yuan/ton (- 60), and ABS production profit is - 66 yuan/ton (+2). EPS operating rate is 58.08% (+14.41), PS operating rate is 56.70% (+1.70), and ABS operating rate is 71.10% (+0) [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - For pure benzene's downstream products, caprolactam production profit is - 1795 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit is - 751 yuan/ton (- 62), aniline production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (- 262), and adipic acid production profit is - 1386 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 4. Strategy - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene. - **Basis and Inter - period**: Carry out positive arbitrage, buy near - month BZ paper goods and sell BZ2603 futures. - **Cross - variety**: Expand the BZN processing fee when it is low in the peak season. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the EB - BZ spread [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the situation of supply exceeding demand for domestic pure benzene is expected to continue, putting pressure on prices; in the long - term, the new production capacity of pure benzene downstream in August is higher than that of pure benzene, and the supply - demand contradiction may improve. The supply - demand situation of crude oil continues to be supply - dominant, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 6100 and the resistance around 6300 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6186 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the main settlement price is 6171 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan. The main trading volume is 5030 lots, up 759 lots; the main open interest is 14110 lots, down 588 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 6100 - 6150 yuan/ton, 6130 - 6120 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 6250 yuan/ton (down 75 yuan) and 6050 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB middle price is 734 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the CIF middle price in China is 748.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 67.97 US dollars/barrel, down 0.61 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 572.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 44.52 tons, down 0.08 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.6 tons, down 1.7 tons; the production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.18%, up 0.45%; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 95.72% (up 6.41%), 78.54% (down 0.46%), 69.24% (down 0.1%), and 64.3% (up 2%) respectively [2] Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the profit of PetroChina's benzene was 689 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton from last week. As of August 18th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 14.4 tons, down 1.37% from the previous period [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The basis is strong, the disk valuation is low, and there is no fundamental driving force. The overall situation is expected to be mainly volatile [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - The center of the spot price has moved down, and the cheapest deliverable is the South China civil gas at 4365 on Thursday. The PG disk strengthened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -450 (+15). The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed [1] - The basis strengthened to 606 (+161), the monthly reverse spread continued to strengthen, the 9 - 10 spread was -478 (-39), and the warehouse receipt registration volume was 10179 lots (+420) [1] International Market - The international market fundamentals are loose. FEI and CP are oscillating, and MB is weakening. The oil - gas price ratio in North Asia and the Middle East has decreased, while that in North America has slightly increased [1] - The internal - external price difference has dropped significantly. PG - CP is 9.3 (-21); PG - FEI is -2.5 (-16). The US - Asia arbitrage window is open [1] - The freight from the US Gulf to Japan is 148 (+16), and that from the Middle East to the Far East is 85 (+11). The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has increased, but it is expected to decline next [1] Industrial Profit - The FEI - MOPJ has significantly narrowed to -38 (+15), and the naphtha crack spread has strengthened. The PDH spot profit has weakened, while the paper profit has continued to improve [1] - The production gross profit of alkylated oil has decreased. The MTBE gas fractionation etherification gross profit has slightly increased, and the isomerization etherification gross profit has slightly decreased [1] Fundamental Data - The unloading port volume has increased, the port inventory has risen, the factory inventory has decreased by 0.51%, and the commodity volume has increased by 0.57% [1] - The PDH operating rate is 73.84% (+1.21 pct). Tianjin Bohua has resumed operation, Jiangsu Ruiheng has restarted, but Binhua has stopped due to a fault for an expected 20 days. Wanda Tianhong is expected to restart next week [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply of pure benzene is expected to increase on a month - on - month basis, but the small number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the domestic increase. Consumption of pure benzene is likely to rise on a month - on - month basis as the overhaul devices of the five major downstream industries of pure benzene restart intensively. In the long - term, there is an improving trend in the supply - demand of pure benzene, and the spot supply - demand gap may gradually shrink. Recently, international oil prices are weakly volatile, and technically, BZ2603 should focus on the support around 6100 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of pure benzene was 6179 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan; the settlement price was 6210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The trading volume was 2318 lots, and the open interest was 14833 lots. The mainstream prices of pure benzene in different domestic markets varied, with some rising and some falling [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB intermediate price was 734 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars; the CFR intermediate price in China was 750.5 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 66.97 dollars/barrel, down 0.64 dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 563.5 dollars/ton, down 6.5 dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 44.6 tons, up 1.03 tons. The port inventory was 16.3 tons, down 0.7 tons. The production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of downstream products of pure benzene varied. For example, the operating rate of styrene was 77.73%, down 1.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 1st to 7th, the profit of PetroChina's benzene was 576 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of August 11th, the commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 14.6 tons, down 10.43% from the previous period. BZ2603 fell 1.14% to close at 6179 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.21% to 78.79%, while that of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 3.29% to 59.66%. The weighted operating rate of downstream products of pure benzene decreased by 1.22% to 76.74%. The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased by 10.43% to 14.6 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The suspension of the 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days is a macro - level positive, but the market has returned to fundamental trading after a slight boost. PE supply is recovering with the restart of previously shut - down plants and new capacity from Jilin Petrochemical, while PP has low current overall开工率 but future supply pressure is high with the upcoming commissioning of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical's new PP plant. Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polyolefins are accumulating, cost support is weak, and downstream demand is gradually transitioning to the peak season [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7313 yuan/ton (-16), and the PP main contract closed at 7107 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot was 7270 yuan/ton (+20), LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+20), and PP East China spot was 7040 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 43 yuan/ton (+36), LL East China basis was - 13 yuan/ton (+36), and PP East China basis was - 67 yuan/ton (-16) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.1% (+3.0%), and PP operating rate was 77.3% (+0.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 404.4 yuan/ton (+35.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 75.6 yuan/ton (+35.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was 174.2 yuan/ton (-50.9) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not elaborated on in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 78.8 yuan/ton (-4.7), PP import profit was - 513.4 yuan/ton (-4.8), and PP export profit was 31.2 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.1% (+0.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.3% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.1% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.8% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated on in the provided content Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - delivery spread: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Pure benzene port inventory has decreased again due to a slowdown in Chinese arrivals and upcoming Korean aromatics maintenance in August - September, with limited subsequent inventory accumulation but still existing inventory pressure. For styrene, port inventory has entered a seasonal decline cycle, but downstream demand improvement is limited [3] Summary by Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 115 yuan/ton (- 26), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 0 yuan/ton (+ 5). Near - month BZ paper cargo - distal BZ2603 spread and BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread are recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] - Styrene: The main basis is 55 yuan/ton (- 5), and the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread is recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 177 dollars/ton (- 3), FOB Korea processing fee is 163 dollars/ton (- 4), and the US - Korea spread is 83.8 dollars/ton (+ 4) [1] - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 306 yuan/ton (+ 8), expected to gradually compress, and the EB - BZ spread is recommended to be shorted when high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 14.60 tons (- 1.70), and the operating rate is not provided in the given text [1] - Styrene: East China port inventory is 148,800 tons (- 10,200), East China commercial inventory is 69,500 tons (+ 3,000), and the operating rate is 77.7% (- 1.2) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: Production profit is 218 yuan/ton (- 10), and the operating rate is 43.67% (- 10.58) - PS: Production profit is - 52 yuan/ton (- 30), and the operating rate is 55.00% (+ 1.70) - ABS: Production profit is 100 yuan/ton (- 23), and the operating rate is 71.10% (+ 5.20) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 1715 yuan/ton (- 25), and the operating rate is 88.41% (- 1.79) - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 672 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 77.00% (+ 4.00) - Aniline: Production profit is 101 yuan/ton (+ 261), and the operating rate is 73.46% (- 0.48) - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1504 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 54.40% (- 10.40) [1]