1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of EG is tightening, and the basis has risen rapidly. The closing price of the EG main contract was 5,359 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 5,429 yuan/ton (up 279 yuan/ton or 5.42% from the previous trading day). The basis of EG East China spot was 0 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton month-on-month). Due to the tense situation in Iran, the expectation of reduced imports and increased exports of EG has fermented, leading to a tightening supply and a rapid rise in the basis [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$255/ton (up $23/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 425 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - In terms of inventory, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.075 million tons (up 36,000 tons month-on-month). The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 78,000 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 5,000 tons. The arrival volume is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply. Overseas, the load of ethylene glycol plants has also decreased significantly. After the delivery of Middle Eastern cargoes in March, there will be a phased shortage of supplies from the Middle East in April, and the import volume is expected to drop significantly, making inventory reduction possible. On the demand side, the load of polyester and weaving has started to decline, the downstream price increase is weak, the inventory of filaments and staple fibers has begun to accumulate, and a negative feedback of production reduction has emerged. If the cost price remains high, downstream production cuts may increase further [2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. Inventory reduction at ports is expected to be realized in April. Recently, inquiries from some Asian countries to China have increased. With the import volume at a low level and exports, the reduction of ethylene glycol social inventory will accelerate significantly. Pay attention to the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz and changes in ethylene glycol plants [3]. - Inter - period: Go long on the May - September spread due to supply influence [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3] 4. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 5,359 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 5,429 yuan/ton (up 279 yuan/ton or 5.42% from the previous trading day). The basis of EG East China spot was 0 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$255/ton (up $23/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 425 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the given content Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The load of polyester and weaving has started to decline, the downstream price increase is weak, the inventory of filaments and staple fibers has begun to accumulate, and a negative feedback of production reduction has emerged. If the cost price remains high, downstream production cuts may increase further [2]. Inventory Data - The inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.075 million tons (up 36,000 tons month-on-month). The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 78,000 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 5,000 tons. The arrival volume is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation in Iran remains turbulent, intensifying the Middle - East conflict, leading to an increase in international oil prices and strong support for chemical products. The market logic of olefins lies in concerns about raw material supply due to geopolitical factors and the expectation of supply - side contraction, which supports olefin prices. However, downstream demand shows a negative feedback, and the basis of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) has declined. The strategy suggests cautious bottom - fishing and long - hedging for LLDPE and PP [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Prices and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 8431 yuan/ton (- 65), and that of the PP main contract is 8628 yuan/ton (- 43). LL North China spot is 8300 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 8400 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot is 8550 yuan/ton (-50). LL North China basis is - 131 yuan/ton (+65), LL East China basis is - 31 yuan/ton (+115), and PP East China basis is - 78 yuan/ton (-7) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 82.4% (- 4.5%), and the PP operating rate is 70.1% (- 4.4%) [1]. - **Production Profits**: PE oil - based production profit is - 1064.0 yuan/ton (- 437.4), PP oil - based production profit is - 1054.0 yuan/ton (- 437.4), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 1746.2 yuan/ton (- 382.2) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 807.7 yuan/ton (- 200.0), PP import profit is - 1304.6 yuan/ton (- 200.0), and PP export profit is 107.6 US dollars/ton (+25.7) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream film operating rate is 26.8% (+8.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 43.4% (+3.1%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 40.5% (+2.9%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.3% (+1.7%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The number of domestic refineries' shutdowns, overhauls, or load - reduction devices has increased, and the expected operating rate will further decline. Imported resources are expected to be weak, and market supply is continuously tightening. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate has rebounded, but due to rising raw material costs, the operating rate increase has not met expectations, and the LL basis has declined [3]. - **PP**: The supply - side reduction is more obvious. The preventive load - reduction of upstream production enterprises continues to increase, and the expected overhaul loss in March - April will continue to rise. The demand side has a gradual recovery in downstream operating rates, but due to large PP price fluctuations and downstream cost pressures, downstream procurement is cautious, and the PP basis has also declined [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously go long and hedge with LLDPE and PP. - **Inter - period**: None. - **Inter - variety**: None [3]. 3.4 Figures and Their Sources - **Figures in "Polyolefin Basis, Inter - period Structure"**: Include plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, PP East China basis, L05 - L09, and PP05 - PP09, with sources mainly from Flush and Steel Union [7][10][12]. - **Figures in "Production Profits and Operating Rates"**: Such as PE production profit (crude oil), PE capacity utilization rate, PP production profit (crude oil), PP production profit (PDH - based), polypropylene capacity utilization rate, PP weekly output, etc., sourced from Steel Union [15][18][21]. - **Figures in "Non - standard Price Differences of Polyolefins"**: HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China, sourced from Steel Union [30][33][37]. - **Figures in "Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins"**: PE East China import profit and loss, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, etc., sourced from Flush and Steel Union [39][40][49]. - **Figures in "Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins"**: Include agricultural film operating rate, packaging film operating rate, plastic weaving operating rate, BOPP film operating rate, plastic weaving production gross profit, BOPP film production gross profit, etc., sourced from Steel Union and Longzhong [60][61][72]. - **Figures in "Polyolefin Inventories"**: PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE social inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, etc., sourced from Zhuochuang and Steel Union [75][82][83].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [2] - Inter - period: 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage under supply influence [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, the ethylene glycol (EG) load has decreased, the de - stocking amplitude has increased, and prices have continued to rise [1] - The domestic EG supply has decreased from its high level, and imports are expected to further shrink under the influence of the situation in Iran. Demand is gradually recovering after the holiday, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking actions and textile and clothing export orders after the nominal tariff reduction [1] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,184 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton or 2.60% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,170 yuan/ton, up 196 yuan/ton or 4.93%. The spot basis of EG in East China was - 31 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars/ton. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 739 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 International Price Difference No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate No specific data or analysis content provided in the given text 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.002 billion tons, up 20,000 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 108,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 16,000 tons. The inventory at the main ports is expected to remain stable [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic pure benzene supply - demand is expected to remain in a slightly loose balance. The cost side shows that the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran has sent new signals of tension, leading to a recent strong fluctuation in WTI and Brent oil prices. The daily range of BZ2603 is expected to be around 5870 - 6140 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract is 6034 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the settlement price is 6027 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan. The trading volume is 21,732 lots, down 516 lots; the open interest is 19,243 lots, down 3065 lots. The mainstream market prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 6035 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), 6120 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), 6150 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6066 yuan/ton (down 73 yuan) respectively [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream market prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 6225 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan) and 6050 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea is 762 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China is 763.92 US dollars/ton, down 2.91 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 72.26 US dollars/barrel, up 0.87 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 597.88 US dollars/ton, down 4.75 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 75.4%, up 2.4 percentage points; the weekly output is 44.31 million tons, up 1.41 million tons. The terminal inventory of pure benzene at ports is 30.5 million tons, unchanged. The production cost of pure benzene is 5331.4 yuan/ton, up 185.4 yuan; the production profit is 647 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工 rate of styrene is 69.96%, up 0.68 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 73.16%, down 0.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 86%, down 2.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 89.04%, up 0.51 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 69.1%, up 0.6 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January 30th to February 5th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased 2.40% to 75.40% week - on - week, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased 0.21% to 56.47% week - on - week. - From January 31st to February 6th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased 0.02% to 74.95% week - on - week. - As of February 9th, the inventory of pure benzene at ports in East China was 29.7 million tons, up 0.34% from last week. - From January 30th to February 5th, the profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased 114 yuan/ton to 647 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates a weakening in pre - holiday demand. For PE, due to the decline in international oil prices, the cost - side support for plastics has weakened. With an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, the polyolefin market has corrected. For PP, the cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious, leading to a correction in both futures and spot prices [2][3]. - The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak. For PE, there is an expected increase in supply pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. For PP, the supply side lacks strong support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market is affected by cost - side and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the sustainability of the rebound is limited. The report recommends a wait - and - see approach for L/PP [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6865 yuan/ton (-13), and that of the PP main contract is 6730 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot is 6730 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (-50), and PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -135 yuan/ton (-57), LL East China basis is -65 yuan/ton (-37), and PP East China basis is -50 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.4% (+0.7%), and the PP operating rate is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 145.4 yuan/ton (+260.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -264.6 yuan/ton (+260.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -388.0 yuan/ton (+117.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 11.4 yuan/ton (-65.3), the PP import profit is -283.9 yuan/ton (+44.8), and the PP export profit is -79.8 US dollars/ton (-5.7) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 34.6% (-1.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 42.1% (-2.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.2% (+0.2%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The decline in international oil prices has led to a weakening of cost - side support. In terms of supply, there are many restarted devices, limited planned maintenance in February, and an increase in imported resources. In terms of demand, it is in the off - season, with a decline in overall downstream operating rates and weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious. On the supply side, PDH is in a deep loss, but there is limited planned maintenance in the future, and some devices are resuming production. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, and there is a seasonal decline in demand with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [3]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for L/PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuations are strong, and the macro - and capital - side disturbances are increasing. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the sustainability of the rebound may be limited [4]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to improve, with port inventories declining from their peak in the first week and downstream提货 demand being boosted. Although the styrene startup rate remains low, the startup rates of non - styrene pure benzene downstream industries have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in downstream startup rates. Overseas, attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the expected reduction of the US tariff policy on South Korean pure benzene. The domestic pure benzene startup rate remains low. - For styrene, the port inventory is still slightly decreasing at the beginning of the week, and the port basis is slightly strengthening. The recovery rate of styrene startup is still slow, the resumption of production at Bohua is still to be determined, and Zhenhai Liande continues to be shut down. The downstream startup rate has increased, with the EPS startup rate rising above the seasonal level, the PS startup rate declining seasonally, and the ABS startup rate consolidating at a low level. Overall, the weighted downstream startup rate has increased, and the ABS inventory pressure has gradually eased [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main contract basis is - 77 yuan/ton (+105), and the spot - M2 spread is - 175 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main contract basis is 142 yuan/ton (+47 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 178 US dollars/ton (+20 US dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 180 US dollars/ton (+23 US dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 154.0 US dollars/ton (-6.0 US dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is 386 yuan/ton (-78 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Startup Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 29.70 tons (-2.70 tons), and the startup rate is not mentioned in the text [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 93,500 tons (-7,100 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 58,900 tons (-1,000 tons), and the startup rate is 70.9% (-0.1%) [1]. 3.4 Styrene Downstream Startup and Production Profits - EPS: The production profit is 78 yuan/ton (+145 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 54.05% (+7.34%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 322 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 57.40% (-1.50%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 978 yuan/ton (-55 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 69.80% (+0.00%) [2]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Startup and Production Profits - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 990 yuan/ton (-45), and the startup rate is 77.17% (+2.95%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 919 yuan/ton (+0), and the startup rate is 89.00% (+3.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is 1171 yuan/ton (+262), and the startup rate is 73.26% (+11.95%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 921 yuan/ton (-41), and the startup rate is 65.30% (-2.30%) [1]. 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: Consider cautiously buying on dips and hedging for EB2602 and BZ2603 [4]. - Basis and inter - period: None [4]. - Cross - variety: None [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, the upward trend of oil prices has slowed down, and the focus will return to the fundamentals of pure benzene and styrene [3]. - The fundamentals of pure benzene have improved, with downstream开工率 bottoming out and rebounding. However, the port inventory is still at a historical high, and the sustainability of the improvement in downstream开工率 needs to be monitored [3]. - For styrene, the port inventory is still being depleted, the recovery rate of styrene开工率 is slow, and the downstream开工率 has increased, with the inventory pressure of ABS gradually alleviating [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts; also styrene's main basis and main contract, EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts [8][12][17] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures cover naphtha processing fee, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profit, and various spreads and profits related to pure benzene and styrene in different regions [19][22][29] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory and operating rate, and styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate [35][38][40] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures display the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][53] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products of pure benzene [59][61][70] 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long and hedge EB2602 and BZ2603 at low prices [4] - Basis and inter - period: No strategy [4] - Cross - variety: No strategy [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Indicators**: The closing price of the BR main contract on 1/15 was 12,190, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 5. The open interest was 99,183, a daily decrease of 1,393. The trading volume was 150,035, a daily decrease of 26,996 and a weekly decrease of 17,602. The warehouse receipt quantity remained at 26,330, with a weekly increase of 2,000. The long - short ratio was 18.83, with a weekly increase of 13 [4]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety**: The butadiene rubber basis was - 190, a daily increase of 60 and a weekly increase of 5. The styrene - butadiene basis was 110, a daily increase of 110. The 02 - 03 spread was - 60, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 25. The 03 - 04 spread was - 35, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 20. The RU - BR spread was 3,805, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 120. The NR - BR spread was 660, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 210 [4]. - **Spot (Domestic/External)**: The Shandong market price, Chuanhua market price remained unchanged at 12,000 and 11,950 respectively. The Qilu ex - factory price remained at 12,100, with a weekly increase of 200. The CFR Northeast Asia price remained at 1,450, with a weekly increase of 35. The CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 1,675, with a weekly increase of 40 [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was - 273, a daily decrease of 77 and a weekly decrease of 383. The import profit was 75, a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 237. The export profit was 603, a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly increase of 242 [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot (Domestic/External)**: The Shandong market price on 1/15 was 9,875, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 375. The Jiangsu market price remained at 9,650, with a weekly increase of 350. The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,550, with a weekly increase of 450. The CFR China price remained at 1,140 [4]. - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit data on 1/15 was N/A. The carbon - four extraction profit data on 1/15 was N/A. The import profit was 516, a daily increase of 5 and a weekly decrease of 687. The export profit was - 1,432, a daily increase of 694 and a weekly increase of 1,281. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 663, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 225. The ABS production profit remained at - 871, with a weekly decrease of 58. The SBS production profit was - 615, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 220 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, with the marginal weakening of macro sentiment, the upward pressure on the futures price of butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase. The butadiene raw material market's short - term buying sentiment is marginally weakening, presenting a pattern of neutral reality and strong expectations. The short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, and the butadiene rubber mainly fluctuates following the cost side [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking 1.1 Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract), the daily closing price increased by 55 yuan/ton to 12,070 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 12,475 lots to 113,696 lots, the open interest increased by 65,592 lots to 91,931 lots, and the trading volume increased by 71,055 ten - thousand yuan to 6,810,210,000 yuan [1]. 1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract decreased by 105 to - 120, and the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 increased by 10 to - 60 [1]. 1.3 Spot Market - The butadiene rubber prices in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong all decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) remained unchanged. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,475 yuan/ton [1]. 1.4 Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 79.6897%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber increased by 103 yuan/ton to 11,976 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber increased by 97 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Industry News - As of January 7, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 41,300 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from the previous period due to reduced import arrivals and normal raw material inventory consumption [2]. - As of January 7, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%. Although the production was high and sales improved, there was some unsold inventory, and the overall inventory change was limited [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - PE: Despite a short - term rebound in the PE price driven by the sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices and cost - side disturbances, the improvement in the PE supply - demand fundamentals is limited. There is still supply pressure due to new device production and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, and the demand side remains weak as downstream industries are in the off - season. However, the short - term inventory pressure has been slightly alleviated [2] - PP: The PP price continues to rebound due to the warming market sentiment, supply reduction expectations, and cost - side support. But there are still supply - demand contradictions. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of upstream device maintenance, and the price rebound space is expected to be limited due to insufficient demand improvement [3] - Strategy: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both LLDPE and PP. Continue to monitor the implementation of upstream device maintenance, as the short - term supply - demand contradictions have not been improved, while geopolitical tensions are increasing cost - side disturbances and the strengthening of the coal sector is driving up market sentiment [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,628 yuan/ton (-14), and that of the PP main contract is 6,484 yuan/ton (-2). The LL spot prices in North and East China are 6,520 yuan/ton (+20) and 6,600 yuan/ton (+70) respectively, and the PP spot price in East China is 6,250 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North and East China is - 108 yuan/ton (+34) and - 28 yuan/ton (+84) respectively, and the PP basis in East China is - 234 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-1.3%) [1] - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 263.3 yuan/ton (+88.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 256.7 yuan/ton (+88.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 765.6 yuan/ton (+49.8) [1] - Import and Export: The LL import profit is 21.6 yuan/ton (-179.3), the PP import profit is - 300.5 yuan/ton (-21.3), and the PP export profit is - 34.1 US dollars/ton (-2.6) [1] - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.0% (+0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.9% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.2% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The short - term price rebounds, but the supply - demand fundamentals improvement is limited. The supply pressure persists, and the demand side is weak. The short - term inventory pressure has been slightly alleviated [2] - PP: The price rebounds, but there are still supply - demand contradictions. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of device maintenance, and the price rebound space is limited [3] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait - and - see for LLDPE and PP. Monitor the implementation of upstream device maintenance [4] - Inter - period: No strategy provided - Inter - variety: No strategy provided