报告行业投资评级 - Not provided 报告的核心观点 - PG main contract fluctuates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and overall, the market is expected to rise steadily [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 日度变化 - The daily change shows that the price of South China LPG remains unchanged, East China LPG increases by 5, Shandong LPG remains unchanged, propane CFR South China increases by 6, propane CIF Japan increases by 5, MB propane spot decreases by 1, CP forecast contract price decreases by 1, Shandong ether - post - carbon four increases by 20, Shandong alkylated oil remains unchanged, paper import profit decreases by 47, and the main basis increases by 3. P - to - PP production profit weakens, CP production cost is lower than FEI. The PG futures fluctuates, and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+10). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable on Friday is East China civil LPG at 4481 [1] 周度观点 - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI and CP spreads fluctuate, MB spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The domestic - foreign spread fluctuates. The PG - CP is 106, the PG - FEI is 85, and the FEI - CP is 21.5 (+4.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and is closed. The AFEI offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China CIF discount is 65 (+8). Freight rates are flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. The FEI - MOPJ widens to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. PDH spot profit changes little, and paper profit fluctuates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are generally controllable. PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). Although the peak season is coming to an end, demand remains weak. East China is the cheapest delivery area, with expected tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, and the overall market rises steadily [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with the spot price center shifting downward. The PG futures market rebounds due to the improvement in the international spot market and the low valuation of the futures. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile consolidation trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to August 21, 2025, the prices of South China LPG remained at 4520, East China LPG increased from 4410 to 4398, and Shandong LPG rose from 4420 to 4500. The CFR South price of propane increased from 563 to 573, and the CIF Japan price of propane rose from 527 to 540 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On August 21, compared with the previous day, the prices of South China LPG remained unchanged, East China LPG increased by 8, Shandong LPG increased by 20, the CFR South price of propane increased by 8, and the CIF Japan price of propane increased by 4 [1]. - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market shows a small rebound. The basis strengthened to 105 (-31), and the 09 - 10 spread was -493 (-29). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4398 on Thursday [1]. Weekly View - **Market Conditions**: The international market is volatile, with freight rates generally in a high - level volatile state. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs has decreased. The FEI and CP have increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has weakened [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The unloading volume has decreased, chemical demand has slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased by 2.06%. Refinery commodity volume has decreased by 1.68%. Factory inventories have increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate is 76.33% (+2.49pct), and the combustion demand is still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price to decline. The PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread has fluctuated. The international market is volatile, and the freight rates are high. The PDH - PP production profit has weakened, and the production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE have declined. The port inventory has decreased, the chemical demand has slightly increased, and the refinery output has decreased. The combustion demand is still weak but approaching the end [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On August 15, 2025, the propane CFR South China was 4400, the South China LPG was 4410, the East China LPG was 4410, the Shandong LPG was 4420, etc. The daily changes showed that the propane CFR South China increased by 35, the South China LPG increased by 9, etc. The cheapest deliverable was the East China civil LPG at 4410. The FEI and CP first rose and then fell. The PP fluctuated weakly, and the production profit of PP from FEI and CP slightly weakened. The PG futures fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly View - The spot price declined due to increased supply and weak demand, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures rebounded because of the improved international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The warehouse receipt registration volume was 12888 lots (+2709). The international market was volatile, and the freight rates were high. The FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly. The port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery output decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH - PP spot profit weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE declined. The PDH plant operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49 pct), and the combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The basis is strong, the disk valuation is low, and there is no fundamental driving force. The overall situation is expected to be mainly volatile [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - The center of the spot price has moved down, and the cheapest deliverable is the South China civil gas at 4365 on Thursday. The PG disk strengthened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -450 (+15). The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed [1] - The basis strengthened to 606 (+161), the monthly reverse spread continued to strengthen, the 9 - 10 spread was -478 (-39), and the warehouse receipt registration volume was 10179 lots (+420) [1] International Market - The international market fundamentals are loose. FEI and CP are oscillating, and MB is weakening. The oil - gas price ratio in North Asia and the Middle East has decreased, while that in North America has slightly increased [1] - The internal - external price difference has dropped significantly. PG - CP is 9.3 (-21); PG - FEI is -2.5 (-16). The US - Asia arbitrage window is open [1] - The freight from the US Gulf to Japan is 148 (+16), and that from the Middle East to the Far East is 85 (+11). The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has increased, but it is expected to decline next [1] Industrial Profit - The FEI - MOPJ has significantly narrowed to -38 (+15), and the naphtha crack spread has strengthened. The PDH spot profit has weakened, while the paper profit has continued to improve [1] - The production gross profit of alkylated oil has decreased. The MTBE gas fractionation etherification gross profit has slightly increased, and the isomerization etherification gross profit has slightly decreased [1] Fundamental Data - The unloading port volume has increased, the port inventory has risen, the factory inventory has decreased by 0.51%, and the commodity volume has increased by 0.57% [1] - The PDH operating rate is 73.84% (+1.21 pct). Tianjin Bohua has resumed operation, Jiangsu Ruiheng has restarted, but Binhua has stopped due to a fault for an expected 20 days. Wanda Tianhong is expected to restart next week [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The spot price center has moved down, with the cheapest deliverable being South China civil LPG at 4380. The PG futures market is running weakly. The basis has strengthened to 606 (+161). The inter - monthly reverse spread has continued to strengthen, with the September - October spread at - 478 (-39). The registered warrants have increased to 10179 lots (+420). The international market fundamentals are loose, with FEI and CP fluctuating and MB weakening. The North Asian - Middle East oil - gas price ratio has declined, and the North American oil - gas price ratio has slightly increased. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly. The US - Asia arbitrage window has opened. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle East to the Far East have increased. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has increased but is expected to decline. The FEI - MOPJ spread has significantly narrowed. The naphtha crack spread has strengthened. The PDH spot profit has weakened, while the paper profit has continued to improve. The alkylation oil production gross profit has decreased. The MTBE gas - fractionation etherification gross profit has slightly increased, and the isomerization etherification gross profit has slightly decreased. Fundamentally, the unloading volume has increased, port inventories have risen, factory inventories have decreased by 0.51%, and the commodity volume has increased by 0.57%. The PDH operating rate is 73.84% (+1.21pct). Overall, without fundamental drivers, the market is expected to fluctuate [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - From August 7 to August 13, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG have shown different degrees of change. The daily change on August 13 shows that South China LPG decreased by 10, Shandong LPG decreased by 20, while East China LPG remained unchanged. The prices of propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, and CP forecast contract price also had corresponding changes. The paper import profit decreased by 7, and the main basis decreased by 12 [1] Wednesday Situation - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4350. FEI and CP decreased. PP fluctuated weakly. The production profits of PP made from FEI and CP fluctuated, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The PG futures market fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 month spread was - 473 (+8). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly Viewpoints - The spot price center has moved down, and the PG futures market is running weakly. The basis has strengthened, and the inter - monthly reverse spread has continued to strengthen. The registered warrants have increased. The international market fundamentals are loose. The North Asian - Middle East oil - gas price ratio has declined, and the North American oil - gas price ratio has slightly increased. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly. The US - Asia arbitrage window has opened. The freight rates have increased. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has increased but is expected to decline. The FEI - MOPJ spread has significantly narrowed. The naphtha crack spread has strengthened. The PDH spot profit has weakened, while the paper profit has continued to improve. The alkylation oil production gross profit has decreased. The MTBE gas - fractionation etherification gross profit has slightly increased, and the isomerization etherification gross profit has slightly decreased. Fundamentally, the unloading volume has increased, port inventories have risen, factory inventories have decreased by 0.51%, and the commodity volume has increased by 0.57%. The PDH operating rate is 73.84% (+1.21pct) [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The basis is strong, the futures valuation is low, and there is no fundamental driving force. The overall market is expected to fluctuate mainly [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Data Changes - From August 6 - 12, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG showed a downward trend, with the Shandong LPG price dropping by 60 yuan on August 12 compared to the previous day; the propane CFR South China price increased by 5 dollars, and the propane CIF Japan price decreased by 4 dollars. The CP forecast contract price increased by 1 dollar, and the paper import profit decreased by 35 yuan, while the main basis decreased by 27 yuan [1] - On Tuesday, the cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4360 yuan. FEI and CP increased, PP fluctuated, the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP deteriorated, but the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The PG futures strengthened, and the monthly spread decreased, with the latest 09 - 10 spread at - 481 (-7). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1] - The spot price center moved down, with the cheapest deliverable being South China civil LPG at 4380 yuan. The PG futures weakened. The basis strengthened to 606 (+161). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen, with the 9 - 10 monthly spread at 478 (-39). The warrant registration volume was 10179 lots (+420), with Qingdao Yunda decreasing by 35 lots and Wuzhong Dahua increasing by 455 lots [1] - Internationally, the market fundamentals were loose, FEI and CP fluctuated, and MB weakened. The oil - gas price ratio in North Asia and the Middle East decreased, while that in North America increased slightly. The internal - external price difference decreased significantly, with PG - CP at 9.3 (-21) and PG - FEI at - 2.5 (-16). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 148 (+16), and that from the Middle East to the Far East was 85 (+11) [1] 2. Weekly Outlook - The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal increased, possibly due to the peak of container ship arrivals from the previous China - US tariff rush, but it is expected to decrease as the container ship shipments have passed the peak. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed significantly to - 38 (+15) [1] - The naphtha crack spread strengthened. The PDH spot profit weakened, while the paper profit continued to improve. The production gross profit of alkylated oil decreased. The MTBE gas - separation etherification gross profit increased slightly, and the isomerization etherification gross profit decreased slightly [1] - Fundamentally, the unloading volume increased, port inventories rose, factory inventories decreased by 0.51%, and the commodity volume increased by 0.57%. The PDH operating rate was 73.84% (+1.21 pct), with Tianjin Bohua resuming operation and Jiangsu Ruiheng restarting, but Binhuausing a fault to stop production for an expected 20 days. Wanda Tianhong is expected to restart next week [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core View of the Report - The overall LPG market is expected to fluctuate as the basis is strong, the futures valuation is low, and there is no obvious fundamental driver [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Spot Prices**: On August 11, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 4360, 4401, and 4490 respectively, with daily changes of -20, -2, and -30. The cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4360 [1] - **International Market Prices**: Propane CFR South China was 555, propane CIF Japan was 519, and MB propane spot was 67. CP forecast contract price was 520, with a daily change of -2 [1] - **Other Product Prices**: Shandong ether - post carbon four was 4880, Shandong alkylated oil was 7830, paper import profit was -232, and the main basis was 561, with a daily change of -45 [1] Market Trends - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market showed a mixed trend. The futures price strengthened, the monthly spread fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was -474 (+4). The basis strengthened to 606 (+161), and the 9 - 10 monthly spread was -478 (-39). The number of registered warehouse receipts was 10179 lots (+420) [1] - **International Market**: The international market fundamentals were loose. FEI and CP fluctuated, and MB weakened. North - Asia and Middle - East oil - gas price ratios declined, while the North - American oil - gas price ratio slightly increased. The internal - external price difference decreased significantly. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] Weekly Outlook - **Supply and Demand**: Unloading port volume increased, port inventory rose, factory inventory decreased by 0.51%, and the commercial volume increased by 0.57%. PDH operating rate was 73.84% (+1.21pct), with some plants starting, restarting, or shutting down [1] - **Profitability**: PDH spot profit weakened, paper profit continued to improve. Alkylated oil production gross profit decreased. MTBE gas - fractionation etherification gross profit increased slightly, and isomerization etherification gross profit decreased slightly [1] - **Shipping and Costs**: VLGCs' waiting time at the Panama Canal increased, expected to decline later. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle - East to the Far - East increased. FEI - MOPJ narrowed significantly, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The overall LPG market is expected to fluctuate as the basis is strong, the futures valuation is low, and there is no fundamental driver [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Data - From August 4 - 8, 2025, the prices of South China LPG remained mostly stable at 4380 - 4390, East China liquefied gas slightly decreased from 4387 to 4403, and Shandong LPG remained at 4520 - 4530. Propane CFR South China increased from 540 to 555, propane CIF Japan fluctuated, MB propane fluctuated around 66 - 69, and CP forecast contract price increased from 521 to 522. Shandong ether - post carbon four increased from 4860 to 4910, and Shandong alkylation oil remained at 7830 - 7900. The paper import profit decreased from - 79 to - 207, and the main basis increased from 494 to 606. The daily change on August 8 showed that South China LPG was unchanged, East China liquefied gas decreased by 3, propane CFR South China increased by 5, MB propane increased by 1, CP forecast contract price increased by 4, Shandong ether - post carbon four increased by 50, and the paper import profit decreased by 39, and the main basis increased by 49 [1] 2. Market Conditions - On Friday, the cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4380. FEI decreased, CP increased. PP slightly decreased, the production profit of PP made from FEI improved, while the profit from CP slightly deteriorated, but the production cost of CP was lower than FEI. The PG futures weakened, and the monthly spread continued to weaken with the latest 09 - 10 at - 478 (- 10). The US - Far East arbitrage window opened [1] - The spot price center moved down, the cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4380. The PG futures trended weakly. The basis strengthened to 606 (+ 161). The inter - monthly reverse spread continued to strengthen with the 9 - 10 monthly spread at - 478 (- 39). The number of registered warehouse receipts was 10179 lots (+ 420), with 35 lots decreased in Qingdao Yunda and 455 lots increased in Wuchan Zhongda. The international market fundamentals were loose, FEI and CP fluctuated, and MB weakened. The North Asian - Middle Eastern oil - gas price ratio decreased, and the North American oil - gas price ratio slightly increased. The internal - external price difference decreased significantly, with PG - CP at 9.3 (- 21) and PG - FEI at - 2.5 (- 16). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 148 (+ 16) and from the Middle East to the Far East was 85 (+ 11). The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal increased, possibly due to the peak of container ship arrivals from the previous Sino - US tariff rush shipments, but it is expected to decrease next [1] 3. Weekly View - The naphtha crack spread strengthened. The spot profit of PDH weakened, while the paper profit continued to improve. The production gross profit of alkylation oil decreased. The gross profit of MTBE gas separation and etherification slightly increased, and the gross profit of isomerization etherification slightly decreased. Fundamentally, the unloading volume increased, the port inventory increased, the factory inventory decreased by 0.51%, and the commercial volume increased by 0.57%. The PDH operating rate was 73.84% (+ 1.21pct), with Tianjin Bohua resuming operation, Jiangsu Ruiheng restarting, but Binhua shutting down due to a fault for an expected 20 days. Wanda Tianhong is expected to restart next week [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to increased arrivals, port inventory accumulation, weak domestic combustion demand, high port inventory pressure, and a weak international fundamental situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Price Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG decreased by 30, 3, and 10 respectively; propane CFR South China remained unchanged; MB propane spot decreased by 3; CP forecast contract price decreased by 3; Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased by 90; Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 20; paper import profit decreased by 26; and the main basis increased by 8 [1] - **Market Conditions**: The PG futures market was weak. The spot price fluctuated and declined, with the cheapest deliverable being South China civil LPG at 4400 yuan/ton. The main contract shifted to the 09 contract, and the basis strengthened to 445 (+79). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen, with the 9 - 10 month spread at - 439 (-18). The number of registered warrants was 9759 lots (-45), with 20 lots decreased at Qingdao Yunda and 25 lots decreased at Ningbo Baidinian [1] International Market - **Price Adjustments**: The August CP official price was lowered. Propane was at 520 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 55 US dollars/ton from the previous month; butane was at 490 US dollars/ton, also a decrease of 55 US dollars/ton from the previous month. The estimated landed cost of propane was around 4327 yuan/ton, and that of butane was around 4090 yuan/ton [1] - **Regional Spreads**: PG - CP reached 30 (-13), FEI - MB reached 159 (+3), FEI - CP reached 5 (+0.5); the US - Asia arbitrage window opened; the CP propane landed discount fluctuated. FEI - MOPJ first widened and then narrowed, with the latest at - 53 (-5) [1] Fundamental Situation - **Inventory and Supply**: Arrivals increased, leading to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory decreased slightly; the commodity volume increased slightly [1] - **Downstream Profits**: The spot profit of PDH to PP fluctuated, and the paper profit continued to improve; the profits of other downstream devices decreased. The PDH operating rate was 72.63% (-0.5 pct), with Liaoning Jinfa resuming production and Tianjin Bohua shutting down due to a fault. Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Ruiheng are expected to restart next week [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PG futures prices have been oscillating downward. Although the chemical demand outlook is relatively strong, the decline in oil prices and the weakening of international LPG prices have led to a weaker futures market. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4486. The basis has strengthened to 433 (+93). The inter - month reverse arbitrage has strengthened due to weak spot prices and the shift of the main contract. The number of registered warrants is 8804 lots (+500), with 500 lots added by Qingdao Yunda. The external market prices have continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. [1] - Despite the strong chemical demand expectations, under the suppression of weak combustion demand, the domestic LPG market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillating trend. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data Summary - On July 18, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 4530, 4486, and 4610 respectively. The propane CFR South China was 553, propane CIF Japan was 505, MB propane spot was 71, and CP forecast contract price was 538. The price of Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4890, and Shandong alkylated oil was 8000. The daily changes were - 40, 0, 20, - 2, - 2, 1, - 8, 40, 80 respectively. The PG futures price decreased, the monthly spread declined, and the 08 - 09 spread was 63. The US - Far East arbitrage window opened. [1] Weekly View Summary - **Market Trend**: The PG futures market oscillated downward. The domestic LPG market is expected to continue the narrow - range oscillation due to weak combustion demand, despite strong chemical demand expectations. [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened to 433 (+93), and the inter - month reverse arbitrage strengthened. The number of registered warrants increased to 8804 lots (+500). [1] - **External Market**: The external market prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The regional spreads such as PG - CP, FEI - MB, FEI - CP, and FEI - MOPJ changed, and the US - Asia arbitrage window opened. [1] - **Profit Situation**: The PDH profit improved, while the MTBE export profit declined. [1] - **Inventory and Supply**: Port inventories increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly. The commodity volume decreased by 0.98% due to reduced supply in South China, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China. [1] - **Chemical Demand**: Chemical demand is strong. The PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct), and the alkylation operating rate increased. MTBE export orders increased. [1]