牛市加速期
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牛市加速期表现最弱的行业终局
Xinda Securities· 2025-09-24 08:03
Group 1 - The report highlights that from late June to August, while major indices accelerated upward, the banking sector experienced a decline, with an absolute return decrease of 0.39%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by approximately 16 percentage points, ranking last among all primary industries [2][8][10] - Historical cases, such as the electronics industry in Q4 2014, show that sectors can underperform during bull market acceleration phases due to style shifts, yet still strengthen in the later stages of the bull market [2][13][15] - The report identifies that if a leading sector in a bull market becomes the weakest performer during an acceleration phase, it is often due to changes in market style rather than weak earnings, suggesting potential for recovery in the later stages of the bull market [2][27][28] Group 2 - The banking sector from March to May 2007 was noted as one of the weakest performers during the latter half of the bull market's main upward wave, despite strong overall performance in the financial cycle bull market from 2005 to 2007 [28][34][41] - The communication sector also underperformed during the same period, with a 28% increase compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 53% rise, indicating a mismatch with market style and weak earnings expectations [43][44][48] - The banking sector from May to July 2020 showed weak performance during a bull market, with a 7.8% increase while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 21.4%, attributed to a shift towards small-cap growth stocks [50][55][61]