黄金： 黄金周初大概率维持区间震荡整理，本周数据面迎来密集爆发，周二美国非农数据、周四CPI数据及周五日本央行利率 决议陆续登场，其中日本央行是否开启加息周期成为市场核心聚焦点。多重重磅数据共振影响下，黄金行情波动预计显 著加剧，消息面或触发单边行情，操作需严控风险、灵活应对。回顾前期走势，金价曾于4380关口两次承压回落，形成 经典"双顶"看空形态，随后价格下探至3900附近企稳回升。此后市场进入对称三角形整理阶段，结合前期上行趋势判 断，该整理结构构成强势延续的"牛市旗形"形态，为后续行情上涨筑牢基础。 四小时线级别短期走势呈强势震荡上行态势，价格依托短期均线稳步运行，回调幅度有限。MACD指标维持金叉形态， 红柱动能虽偶有小幅收缩，但整体支撑有效，多头动能未明显衰减；RSI指标运行于强势区域，未触及极端超买区间， 短期虽存在小幅回调修正需求，但未破坏整体多头结构，回调后仍具备上行动能，短期震荡为后续上行蓄力。 日线级别整体呈现明确多头格局，金价成功突破前期整理区间，稳固运行于4200整数关口上方，多头动能持续释放。K 线连续收阳，均线系统呈多头排列，短期均线对价格形成有效支撑；MACD指标红柱持续扩张， ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility, with BCT (Bitcoin) prices breaking through key resistance levels and potential for further gains, driven by both technical patterns and external factors such as government initiatives [1][6][10]. Group 1: Price Movements and Technical Analysis - BCT's price has surpassed 780,000 RMB, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding 240 billion RMB, indicating strong market activity [1] - BCT has been consolidating in the range of 101,000-110,000 USD (approximately 735,000-800,000 RMB) for over five weeks, forming a "bull flag" pattern, with a potential target of 144,000 USD (approximately 1,048,000 RMB) upon breakout [3] - Current BCT price is 107,485 USD (approximately 782,000 RMB), just 2.3% away from the critical resistance level of 110,000 USD [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Institutional Involvement - Miners are holding their positions despite a significant drop in transaction fees and income, indicating a belief in future price increases [4] - Institutional interest is rising, with BlackRock leading a surge in ETF holdings, accumulating 124,000 BTC over the past 87 days, which could represent 9.25% of the market by September [4] Group 3: Government Influence and Market Sentiment - Reports suggest that former President Trump is proposing a federal "strategic BCT reserve," funded by criminal forfeiture, which has sparked market reactions [6] - The implied volatility index for BCT has surged by 15%, with a 40% increase in call options betting on a price breakout to 120,000 USD (approximately 874,000 RMB) within a month [7] Group 4: Broader Market Trends - Ethereum (ETH) is showing strong performance, with a price of 2,500.15 USD and a 24-hour increase of 2.58%, indicating a potential shift towards altcoins as BCT prepares for a breakout [7] - The ETH/BTC exchange rate is forming higher lows, suggesting upward momentum, while Ethereum's network activity has surged, with Gas fees increasing by 130% and active addresses reaching a peak for 2023 [7] Group 5: Support and Resistance Levels - Analysts have identified a critical support zone for BCT between 94,000-97,900 USD (approximately 684,000-713,000 RMB), which includes key moving averages [8] - The current market sentiment is characterized by greed, with a fear and greed index reading of 74, indicating bullish sentiment [10]