黄金： 黄金周初大概率维持区间震荡整理，本周数据面迎来密集爆发，周二美国非农数据、周四CPI数据及周五日本央行利率 决议陆续登场，其中日本央行是否开启加息周期成为市场核心聚焦点。多重重磅数据共振影响下，黄金行情波动预计显 著加剧，消息面或触发单边行情，操作需严控风险、灵活应对。回顾前期走势，金价曾于4380关口两次承压回落，形成 经典"双顶"看空形态，随后价格下探至3900附近企稳回升。此后市场进入对称三角形整理阶段，结合前期上行趋势判 断，该整理结构构成强势延续的"牛市旗形"形态，为后续行情上涨筑牢基础。 四小时线级别短期走势呈强势震荡上行态势，价格依托短期均线稳步运行，回调幅度有限。MACD指标维持金叉形态， 红柱动能虽偶有小幅收缩，但整体支撑有效，多头动能未明显衰减；RSI指标运行于强势区域，未触及极端超买区间， 短期虽存在小幅回调修正需求，但未破坏整体多头结构，回调后仍具备上行动能，短期震荡为后续上行蓄力。 日线级别整体呈现明确多头格局，金价成功突破前期整理区间，稳固运行于4200整数关口上方，多头动能持续释放。K 线连续收阳，均线系统呈多头排列，短期均线对价格形成有效支撑；MACD指标红柱持续扩张， ...

Group 1 - Shiba Inu (SHIB) has formed its first daily golden cross in 2025, indicating a bullish signal as the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, suggesting potential upward momentum [2] - The last occurrence of a golden cross led to an approximate 85% increase in SHIB, although significant volatility typically follows such events, necessitating attention to trading volume and market sentiment [2][8] - Bitcoin faces a potential "double top" risk due to a recent whale sell-off of approximately 24,000 BTC, which has increased supply and pressured the current price [4][5] Group 2 - The key price level to avoid confirming the "double top" pattern for Bitcoin is $117,570, which it has not yet reached [5] - A whale's transfer of approximately 52.9 million DOGE (around $12 million) from Binance to a new address has reduced immediate liquidity on the exchange, potentially impacting price dynamics [6][8] - The withdrawal of DOGE from exchanges may lead to a tighter supply, which could provide short-term price support, but the actual price movement will depend on future demand [11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is expected to experience a slow upward trend this week, contrasting with the previous weeks' downward movements, with a potential target of 3350, 3400, and 3430 [2][4] - The dollar index has reached a low of 96.3, showing weak performance with no signs of rebound, which is contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [4][5] - Domestic gold prices are showing a clear upward trend, with support levels at 760 for Shanghai gold and 755 for Rongtong gold, indicating a potential for significant gains if these levels are breached [5][6] Group 2 - Silver is maintaining a bullish trend, with a current price around 36.1 and a target of 36.5 in the short term, while monitoring for potential short positions around 37 [5][6] - The international crude oil market is currently in a bullish trend, with support at 64, and potential upward targets at 67, 69, and 75, depending on market news [6] - Domestic fuel oil is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with a focus on waiting for pullbacks to enter long positions, aiming for targets around 3000 and 3200 [6]

Group 1: US Stock Market Analysis - The report suggests that the current rebound in the US stock market may be forming a large double top, indicating a potential end to the rally [1][19][25] - From a cyclical perspective, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are in a downward phase similar to the period around 2008, suggesting comparable risks [1][19][21] - The valuation perspective shows that as of May 16, 2025, the difference between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the inverse of the S&P 500 P/E ratio has risen to 0.68%, indicating lower investment attractiveness in US equities compared to bonds [1][35][37] Group 2: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed a preference for value styles, with strong performances in financial and consumer sectors [2][10][11] - The report highlights that various ETFs, particularly large-cap and value ETFs, outperformed during the week, while TMT-related sectors have not fully recovered from previous lows [2][10][11] - The analysis of industry indices since early April indicates that sectors like retail, banking, and agriculture have recovered well, while technology sectors still have room for recovery [2][10][11] Group 3: Genetic Programming Industry Rotation Model - The genetic programming industry rotation model has achieved an absolute return of 14.64% this year, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 13.79 percentage points [3][39][40] - The model currently favors sectors such as computers, electronics, machinery, media, and home appliances, while excluding telecommunications [3][39][40] - The model's strategy balances TMT-related growth sectors with traditional industries and consumer-related sectors to maintain a diversified portfolio [3][39][40] Group 4: Absolute Return ETF Simulation - The absolute return ETF simulation portfolio has seen a slight decline of 0.05% last week but has accumulated a total return of 3.70% year-to-date [4][43][44] - The portfolio's asset allocation is based on recent trends, with a balanced focus on resource sectors like steel and non-bank financials, alongside technology sectors [4][43][44] - The current holdings include energy and soybean ETFs, while gold ETFs have been excluded [4][43][44] Group 5: Global Asset Allocation - The global asset allocation simulation currently favors bonds and foreign exchange, with a predicted ranking of future returns showing bonds at the top [47][48] - The simulation has recorded an annualized return of 7.29% with a Sharpe ratio of 1.50, although it has faced a decline of 3.64% year-to-date [47][48] - The strategy emphasizes a higher risk budget for assets such as Chinese and US bonds [47][48]