Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global beef supply is expected to face a shortfall of 4%-6% over the next two to three years, leading to synchronized price increases for beef and dairy products due to a contraction in supply worldwide [1][3] - The domestic beef consumption is approximately 12 million tons annually, with a market size nearing 1 trillion yuan, but the industry is highly fragmented, with 95% of production capacity provided by small-scale farmers, resulting in significant losses and capacity reductions [1][4][5] Beef Industry Insights - The beef farming cycle lasts about three years, and the industry is currently experiencing deep losses due to factors such as consumption growth and the pandemic, with expectations of a price increase around late July to August 2025, potentially lasting until 2027 [1][6] - The breeding cow capacity has decreased by over 30%, and slaughter data indicates a higher-than-average proportion of breeding cows being processed, which supports future price increases [1][7] - The weight of fattening bulls has declined by 20%, indicating the beginning of capacity clearance, and a reduction in the number of culled breeding cows post-Spring Festival will lead to a significant contraction in beef supply, resulting in a substantial price increase in the second half of the year [1][8] Global Beef Supply Dynamics - Major beef-producing countries like the US and Brazil are experiencing declines in cattle inventory, with US beef futures reaching record highs, leading to increased import prices and reduced import volumes, which will have limited impact on domestic dining and consumer spending [1][9] Dairy Industry Insights - The domestic dairy industry has seen a nearly 10% reduction in capacity, with expectations of accelerated capacity reduction in the third quarter. The current low milk prices are causing cash flow losses across the industry, and if prices do not recover, this will further accelerate capacity reduction [2][10] - The dairy industry is characterized by a higher degree of scale, with 70%-80% of production being large-scale. The top three companies hold over 20% market share, and a potential rise in milk prices could help alleviate cash flow issues for leading firms [10][11] Future Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The beef and dairy markets are expected to experience significant price increases over the next two to three years due to global supply contractions. Investment opportunities are seen in leading dairy companies listed in Hong Kong, such as YouRan Dairy, which are currently in a challenging phase but are expected to improve profitability as capacity reduces and prices rise [11] - Companies like Bright Dairy, which import quality resources from New Zealand, are also expected to benefit from the global price increases, showcasing strong growth potential in the agricultural cycle [11]

牧业即将迎来右侧时刻：一边涨价一边加速去产能 20250604 摘要 环保政策和非洲猪瘟曾系统性影响养殖业周期，2016 年起环保政策清 理散户，2018 年非洲猪瘟导致蛋白质价格上涨，奶牛养殖周期长达三 年，影响市场供应持久。 当前行业完全成本约 3.5 元/公斤，合同内原奶价格约 3-3.1 元/公斤， 社会散奶价格更低，行业整体亏损，散奶价格仅能维持泌乳牛现金成本， 后备牛亏损严重，中小散户养不起后备牛，行业运行不健康。 奶价已接近泌乳牛现金成本线，短期内泌乳牛淘汰有限，供应过剩难缓 解，但后备牛亏损导致配种意愿低，预计两年后市场供应将减少，今年 年底或明年初奶价或开始上涨。 奶业周期通常为八年，目前处于新周期临界点，2023 年中行业亏损并 开始去产能，预计 2025 年底将出现供应拐点，提前淘汰和需求旺季可 能加速拐点到来。 行业产能去化已持续两年多，预计未来奶价上涨将持续至少两年，6-8 月淘汰旺季可能加速淘汰速度，当前时间点临近奶价趋势性上涨。 Q&A 当前畜牧业周期的趋势是什么？为什么奶价可能会在产能去化的同时上涨？ 目前畜牧业正处于一个关键时刻，我们预计未来将出现产能去化与奶价上涨并 存的情 ...