牧业大周期十问十答 20250707 摘要 全球牛肉供给预计未来两三年存在 4%-6%的缺口，国内外牛肉和奶制 品价格或将同步上涨，主要受全球范围内的供给收缩影响。 国内肉牛年消费量约 1,200 万吨，市场规模接近 1 万亿元，但养殖高度 分散，95%产能由农户提供，导致行业深度亏损和产能大幅缩减。 肉牛养殖周期长达三年，受消费增长和疫情等因素影响，2023-2024 年行业深度亏损，预计 2025 年 7 月下旬至 8 月将迎来新一轮涨价，或 延续至 2027 年。 行业繁母牛产能已减少 30%以上，屠宰端数据显示母牛屠宰比例远高于 历史平均水平，为未来几年价格上涨提供基础。 育肥公牛体重下滑 20%，表明产能出清开始。肉牛 PSY 极低，淘汰母 牛育肥期扰动大，春节后淘汰母牛减少将导致牛肉量收缩，预计下半年 牛肉价格大幅上涨。 美国、巴西等主要肉牛生产国存栏量下降，美国牛肉期货价格创新高， 进口牛肉价格将上涨且进口量收缩，对国内餐饮和居民消费影响有限。 国内奶业产能减少近 10%，预计三季度加速去化。奶价处于低位，全行 业现金流亏损，若三季度奶价未回升，将加速产能去化，奶价上涨或弥 补头部企业现金流。 ...

证券研究报告 生育政策密集出台或将刺激行业发展，关注北交所母婴行业相关标的 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第二十一期（20250706） 投资要点： | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 07 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 政策出台有望鼓励生育，或将刺激母婴行业发展。国务院、各地政府出台育儿补贴、购房优 惠等政策，有望刺激母婴行业的发展。根据国家统计局，2024 年中国出生人口 954 万，为 2017 年以来首次回升，而根据艾媒咨询数据，2018-2024 年中国母婴消费市场规模稳步上升， 2024 年达 76299 亿元。中国乳制品行业规模不断扩大，但奶类产量 2024 年有所下降，根据 南方乳业招股书、灼识咨询数据，2024 年中国乳制品规模约 5216.70 亿元，预计 2026 年达 5966.60 亿元。中国婴幼儿辅食市 ...

中新社兰州7月6日电(记者闫姣)第三届甘肃省国际友好城市产业推介暨经贸合作对接活动6日在兰州举 办。白俄罗斯驻重庆总领事馆领事沙利莫夫接受中新社记者采访时，讲述了两地延续18年的友城情谊。 "甘肃学子在明斯克的校园里求知，陇原企业在中白工业园土地上扎根……白俄罗斯与甘肃的联系早已 超越地理距离。"沙利莫夫细数两地合作脉络，从教育领域的留学交流，到贸易投资的双向流动，再到 文化旅游的民心相通，这些都是友城关系结出的硕果。 时间追溯至2007年，甘肃省与白俄罗斯格罗德诺州正式缔结友好省州关系，为两地合作按下"快进键"。 如今，甘肃的蔬菜种子、机电产品经白俄罗斯转口欧洲，白俄罗斯的优质牛肉、奶制品摆上甘肃民众的 餐桌，双向贸易持续增长。 近年来，甘肃与白俄罗斯在多领域合作成果丰硕，友好交流不断升温。甘肃省建设投资集团、金川镍都 实业有限公司等企业入驻中白工业园，进一步拓展了两地合作空间。 从河西走廊到东欧平原，十八载友城情缘见证两地携手发展的脉络。活动现场，沙利莫夫再次提出扩大 农产品出口、开展教育培训、推进投资项目三大合作方向。他表示，对甘肃企业而言，白俄罗斯在中欧 集装箱班列中占据关键地位，超90%班列经此进入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Knight Dairy Industry has been investigated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for failing to timely disclose significant losses from futures trading, which constitutes a violation of information disclosure regulations [2][12]. Group 1: Investigation and Penalties - Knight Dairy received a notice of investigation from the CSRC on July 4, 2025, due to non-compliance with information disclosure obligations related to futures trading losses [4][10]. - The investigation revealed that the company incurred substantial losses from futures trading, with the highest cumulative loss reaching 41.12% of its audited net profit for 2023 [9][12]. - The CSRC has proposed penalties, including a warning and fines totaling 200 million yuan for the company, and individual fines for executives ranging from 20 million to 80 million yuan [12][13]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Impact - In 2024, Knight Dairy reported a revenue of 1.297 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.22%, but a net loss of 7.6951 million yuan, a decline of 108.20% compared to the previous year [16]. - The company's stock price fell by 3.76% to 11.78 yuan per share on July 4, 2025, resulting in a total market capitalization of 2.463 billion yuan [16].

本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整,没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连 带法律责任。 【导读】因期货投资巨亏未及时披露，北交所乳企 " 第一股 " 被证监会立案调查 中国基金报记者 杨晨 7 月 4 日晚间， 北交所乳企 " 第一股 " 骑士乳业 （证券代码： 832786 ）发布公告称， 因期货投资巨亏未及时披露，涉嫌信息披露 违法违规 ，公司及相关当事人董事长兼总经理党涌涛、董事兼董秘陈勇、董事兼财务负责人王喜临，当日收到证监会下发的《立案告知 书》。 内蒙古骑士乳业集团股份有限公司 关于公司及相关当事人收到中国证券监督管理委员会立 案告知书的公告 内蒙古骑士乳业集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")及相关当事人(董 事长、总经理党涌涛先生;公司董事、董事会秘书陈勇先生:公司董事、财务负 责人王喜临女士)于 2025年7月4日收到中国证券监督管理委员会(以下简称 "中国证监会")下发的《立案告知书》。 因公司期货投资亏损未及时履行信息 披露义务,涉嫌信息披露违法违规,根据《中华人民共和国证券法》《中华人民 共和国行政处罚法》等法律法规,中 ...

南都讯 记者程姝雯 6月19日，在深圳罗湖东门老街广场，华润万家首届"乡遇万物·共塑美好"名优特产 进万家选品会拉开惟幕。活动汇集了来自全国21个省份的百家助农企业。内蒙古农畜产品销售企业（北 京）共享前置仓受邀参展，带着纯正的草原风味亮相鹏城，为深圳消费者带来一场别具风味的"内蒙古 味道"体验之旅。 本次选品会旨在贯彻落实广东省2025年消费帮扶工作部署，在广东省发改委、省农业农村厅、深圳市乡 村振兴和协作交流局、市总工会指导下举办。华润万家此前已通过"广东省2025消费帮扶仲夏行动"平台 发布选品标准，并定向邀请重点帮扶地区优质企业参与。现场，采购团队与帮扶企业高效对接，通过面 对面精准洽谈，有效缩短供需链路，助力乡村振兴产业可持续发展。 仓储分散、物流成本高、时效慢等痛点，降低运营成本，成为推动内蒙古特色农产品"走出去"的重要枢 纽。 此次参展，内蒙古（北京）共享前置仓运营方北京非零和科技有限公司精心筹备，带来了品类丰富、品 质上乘的内蒙古特色产品。从米面粮油、醇香奶制品，到风味牛肉干、香脆瓜子，再到天然果汁果干及 地域特色饮品零食，集中展示了内蒙古全域精深加工的农畜产品，全方位呈现了"生态内蒙古，绿色 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the successful implementation of a new consumption promotion model called "government-enterprise collaboration and business-travel integration" in the Lianhua Street area of Futian District, Shenzhen [1][2] - The initiative includes a series of activities aimed at enhancing consumer engagement and stimulating local economic growth through innovative scenarios and substantial discounts [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The "Health Living Collection" event attracted around 5,000 visitors and generated nearly 100,000 yuan in total sales, with an estimated follow-up consumption boost of 400,000 yuan [1] - The event featured a "trade-in for new" initiative, targeting the upgrading needs of local households by collaborating with leading home appliance brands [1] Group 2: Experience and Engagement - Four immersive experience scenarios were created, including "Green Surge Dragon Boat," "Duanwu Makeup Studio," "Palm Weaving Laboratory," and "Organic Food Hall," blending traditional culture with modern lifestyle [2] - Interactive activities such as cash red envelope lotteries and fun markets enhanced consumer enjoyment and engagement during the event [2] Group 3: Future Plans - Lianhua Street plans to deepen the "government-enterprise collaboration and business-travel integration" model by involving more companies and creating a series of culturally rich consumption promotion activities [2]

Core Insights - In 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 48.79 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5%, marking the first time it fell below the GDP growth rate of 5% [1] - The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry is transitioning into a phase dominated by "stock competition," focusing on efficiency improvement, brand optimization, and structural adjustments [1] FMCG Company Performance - **Master Kong**: Achieved revenue of 806.51 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.30%, with net profit rising by 19.80% to 37.34 billion yuan [2][6] - **Nongfu Spring**: Reported revenue of 428.96 billion yuan, up by 0.50%, and net profit of 121.23 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.40% [2][6] - **Uni-President**: Generated revenue of 303.32 billion yuan, a growth of 6.09%, with net profit of 18.49 billion yuan, increasing by 10.90% [2][6] - **China Foods**: Recorded revenue of 214.92 billion yuan, up by 0.20%, and net profit of 8.61 billion yuan, a growth of 3.40% [2][6] - **Eastroc Beverage**: Achieved significant growth with revenue of 158.39 billion yuan, up by 40.63%, and net profit of 33.27 billion yuan, increasing by 63.09% [2][6] - **Three Squirrels**: Reported revenue of 106.22 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 49.30%, with net profit rising by 85.51% to 4.08 billion yuan [2][6] Industry Trends - The FMCG sector is experiencing a shift towards efficiency and brand optimization as the era of rapid market growth driven by demographic dividends comes to an end [1] - Companies are adapting to market changes through product innovation, structural optimization, and brand rejuvenation to establish new growth curves and core competitiveness [13] - The beverage segment is seeing strong performance from Nongfu Spring's tea drinks, which have become a major revenue source despite challenges in the bottled water segment [8][13] - The snack segment is witnessing varied performance, with companies like Qinqin Foods achieving profitability through export and OEM manufacturing, while others like Liuyifei face challenges due to strategic adjustments [13] Dairy Industry Performance - **Yili Group**: Maintained its position as Asia's leading dairy company with revenue of 1,157.80 billion yuan, despite a decline of 8.24% [15][16] - **Mengniu Dairy**: Experienced a revenue drop of 10.09% to 886.75 billion yuan, with net profit significantly declining by 97.83% [15][16] - **Bright Dairy**: Reported revenue of 242.78 billion yuan, down by 8.33%, and net profit of 7.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.36% [15][16] - The dairy industry is facing challenges with supply-demand imbalances and declining consumer demand, leading to revenue declines for many traditional dairy giants [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing importance of plant-based proteins in modern diets, highlighting their role in promoting health and environmental sustainability [3][4]. Industry Insights - China is a major player in the oilseed planting, processing, and consumption sectors, with technological innovations potentially increasing raw material utilization by over 20 times [3]. - Plant proteins are seen as a key solution to meet future protein demands and to reduce agricultural carbon emissions, aligning with China's dual carbon goals [3][4]. Technological Advancements - The production process of plant-based foods is more environmentally sustainable, reducing land use and water consumption [4]. - Significant breakthroughs have been made in peanut protein processing, with a focus on enhancing the value of peanut protein, which is currently underutilized [4]. - The development of high solubility plant protein powders and new plant-based cream products has been achieved, with applications in various food products like ice cream [4]. Future Directions - Future breakthroughs in plant protein are expected in four key technological areas: green extraction, functional modification, texture reconstruction, and nutritional enhancement [4]. - High moisture extrusion and 3D printing technologies are anticipated to drive explosive growth in plant-based meat, egg, and dairy products [4]. International Collaboration - The team has engaged in frequent collaborations with research institutions in Europe, Central Asia, and Africa, focusing on demand-driven solutions [5]. - A global scientific initiative for peanut quality evaluation has been launched, enhancing China's influence in the global peanut industry [5]. Research and Development Focus - The choice to focus on plant protein processing is driven by national strategies and industry needs, with a strong emphasis on technological innovation [6]. - The integration of basic research and industrial application is crucial for sustainable development in the plant protein sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - Listeria monocytogenes poses a significant health risk, especially during summer, as it can contaminate refrigerated ready-to-eat foods, leading to serious infections in vulnerable populations such as pregnant women, newborns, the elderly, and immunocompromised individuals [1][4][5] Group 1: Infection Symptoms - Symptoms of Listeria infection can vary; healthy adults may experience mild symptoms like diarrhea and fever, while vulnerable groups may face severe complications including headaches, fever, muscle pain, and neurological issues [4][5] - The incubation period for Listeria can be lengthy, ranging from a few days to over two months, complicating the identification of the food source [1] Group 2: Food Sources of Listeria - Listeria can be found in a variety of foods, particularly those that are refrigerated, such as unpasteurized dairy products, deli meats, salads, and pre-cut fruits [6][8] - The bacteria thrive in low-acid environments and can survive in vacuum-packed foods, making certain processed meats a potential risk [6] Group 3: Food Storage Precautions - To minimize the risk of Listeria contamination, it is crucial to maintain refrigerator temperatures at or below 4°C, as bacteria grow rapidly at temperatures above 5°C [10][12] - Proper food storage practices include placing milk and raw meat towards the back of the fridge, separating raw meat from ready-to-eat foods, and avoiding overcrowding to ensure adequate air circulation [12]