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牧业景气新周期
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农林牧渔周观点:旺季需求增加,猪价延续强势,看好肉奶共振下的牧业景气新周期-20260125
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in demand during the peak season, leading to sustained strong prices for pork. It anticipates a new cycle of prosperity in the livestock industry driven by the resonance between meat and dairy sectors [3][4]. - The report suggests that major meat protein prices (pork, chicken, beef, eggs, and aquatic products) are expected to bottom out and rise in 2026. The efficiency differences among pig farming enterprises will be crucial in determining profitability levels for the year [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the meat chicken industry, after a prolonged downturn of 3-4 years, is likely to gradually emerge from its cyclical bottom due to improvements in demand [3][4]. - The beef and raw milk sectors are projected to reach a supply-demand balance after ongoing capacity reductions, marking a turning point for the cycle [3][4]. - The edible mushroom sector is expected to see significant improvements in industry structure after 2-3 years of capacity clearance, with early investments in the second growth curve beginning to yield results [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 0.4%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.6%. The top five gainers included Fujian Jinsen (15.7%), Hainan Rubber (15.5%), and Wancheng Group (14.3) [3][4]. - The report recommends focusing on growth opportunities and suggests stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Dekang Animal Husbandry, and Wen's Foodstuffs [3][4]. Livestock Sector - In the beef sector, prices for beef cattle, calves, and beef have seen slight increases, indicating the beginning of a long-term upward trend. The average price for fattening bulls was 25.66 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.25% [3][4]. - The report notes that the supply of beef cattle is expected to decrease, with a projected output of 51.33 million heads in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3][4]. Swine Farming - The report indicates that the price of live pigs remains strong due to seasonal stocking demands, with the average price for external three-line pigs at 13.03 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.66% [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of weaned piglets, which reached an average of 352 CNY/head, up by 45 CNY/head week-on-week [3][4]. Poultry Farming - The white feather broiler market is characterized by an oversupply, leading to a decline in chick prices. The average price for white feather broiler chicks was 1.87 CNY/chick, down 28.6% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report suggests that the continued oversupply of white chickens will be a key theme in 2026, with a focus on the development and long-term value of leading enterprises [3][4].