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国泰海通|房地产:物业财报“从迷雾走向精深”系列(2)——物业应收账款研究
Core Insights - The article focuses on the management of accounts receivable in the property industry, emphasizing its significant impact on cash flow and potential dividend sustainability [1] - It analyzes the cash flow management changes of 30 sample companies, highlighting the increasing scale of accounts receivable since 2021 due to industry downturns and slower payment collection from third-party owners [1] Accounts Receivable Growth Trends - The total accounts receivable of the 30 tracked listed property companies reached 29.18 billion, 48.32 billion, 68.34 billion, 74.25 billion, and 75.37 billion from 2020 to 2024, with growth rates of +42.6%, +65.6%, +41.4%, +8.7%, and +1.5% respectively [2] - Since 2023, the growth rate of accounts receivable has fallen below that of operating revenue, indicating a significant slowdown [2] Changes in Related Party Transactions - The proportion of accounts receivable from related parties has decreased from 47% to 39% over the past five years, while third-party receivables have increased from 53% to 61% [2] - The risk from related parties is gradually diminishing, with the proportion of related party receivables for companies with parent company risks dropping from 91% in 2019 to 44% in 2024 [2] Payment Collection Challenges - The aging of accounts receivable has increased, with the proportion of receivables due within one year dropping from 89% in 2019 to 58% in 2024, indicating greater difficulty in collection [3] - The provision for accounts receivable has significantly increased from 4% in 2019 to 26% in 2024, reflecting heightened risk [3] - The overall collection rate for sample companies has declined from 90% to 78% between 2019 and 2024, with companies facing parent company risks experiencing lower collection rates [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with independent business competitiveness and reduced related party transactions are deemed important for evaluation [3] - Companies with strong parent company backgrounds and high rankings in property sales can provide performance support while mitigating related party receivable risks [3] - Commercial management companies are favored due to their better collection rates and lower instances of long-term arrears [3]
国泰海通 · 晨报0704|房地产、金工
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding accounts receivable in the property management industry, particularly in the context of cash flow management and dividend sustainability. It highlights the significant changes in accounts receivable due to recent industry downturns and the need for a balanced development model focusing on scale, quality, and profit [3][4]. Accounts Receivable Analysis - The total accounts receivable for 30 tracked listed property companies increased from 29.18 billion to 75.37 billion from 2020 to 2024, with growth rates of +42.6%, +65.6%, +41.4%, +8.7%, and +1.5% respectively. Notably, from 2023 onwards, the growth rate of accounts receivable is lower than that of operating income, indicating a significant slowdown [3]. - The proportion of accounts receivable from related parties has decreased from 47% to 39% over the past five years, while third-party receivables have increased from 53% to 61%. This trend suggests a gradual reduction in related party risks as the industry stabilizes [4]. - The aging of accounts receivable has worsened, with the proportion of receivables due within one year dropping from 89% in 2019 to 58% in 2024. Consequently, the provision for bad debts has risen sharply from 4% to 26% during the same period, reflecting increased collection difficulties [4]. Investment Recommendations - Companies that demonstrate independent business competitiveness and can effectively reduce related party transactions are deemed favorable. Additionally, firms with strong parent company backgrounds and high rankings in property sales are likely to provide performance support while mitigating related party risks [5]. - Property management companies with natural advantages in merchant payment collection, low long-term arrears, controlled accounts receivable growth, adequate provisions, healthy aging structures, and high collection rates are recommended for investment [5].
国泰海通:物业行业应收账款增速收窄 独立性成关键指标
智通财经网· 2025-07-03 08:03
智通财经APP获悉,国泰海通发布研报称,考虑物企发展和运营的长期逻辑,认为具备独立业务竞争能 力,能够合理减少关联交易发生数量、降低关联交易占比是重要的衡量标准。此外,该行还考虑1)母公 司背景优质且地产销售排名保持前列的企业,仍能为物企提供业绩上的支撑,同时有效规避关联方应收 带来的风险;2)商管类企业具有天然优势,商户缴费较好收回,不存在长期欠费的情况。同时,该行考 虑应收增速控制得当,计提比例相对充分,账龄结构健康、回款率高的企业。 国泰海通主要观点如下: 为什么研究物业应收账款 考虑应收账款作为影响企业现金流的重要因素,绝大程度上对企业分红潜在持续能力有实质影响,本文 作为物业报表研究系列的第二篇,将通过对30家样本企业应收账款的详细拆解,回顾和分析企业现金流 管理的本质变化。受近年地产行业下行、关联方出险以及第三方业主回款速度放缓影响,行业应收账款 规模从2021年开始步入增长。基于以上行业趋势变化,该行认为有序理解物业行业应收账款的处理方 式、发展特点对正确理解物业现金流变化及寻找平衡的"规模-质量-利润"发展模式意义明显。 行业应收账款规模增速收窄明显 2020-2024年,该行跟踪的30家上市 ...