Core Viewpoint - The current market is characterized by high uncertainty regarding the seriousness and impact of the Trump administration's efforts to reshape the economic framework, with the upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" date of April 2 being a significant turning point [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - The Trump administration's initial approach to restoring industrial competitiveness involves raising tariffs, while also planning to implement a dollar depreciation policy if necessary, which could lead to market volatility [2][3]. - The market initially reacted positively to Trump's policies, reminiscent of "Trump 1.0," but the subsequent "Trump 2.0" has seen a significant downturn, with the stock market losses in March completely offsetting previous gains since the election [2][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the details of the reciprocal tariffs is seen as a critical moment, with mixed sentiments in the market as participants await clarity [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - There is a noticeable trend of diversifying investments away from U.S. markets, with funds being directed towards regions less affected by U.S. policies, such as China and Europe, which have seen significant stock market recoveries [3][4]. - Investors are increasingly focusing on assets with low sensitivity to Trump’s policies, referred to as "low beta" investments, such as gold, which has appreciated significantly over the past year [4]. - The "Magnificent 7" stocks that previously drove the U.S. market higher are now facing scrutiny, with concerns about their high sensitivity to Trump's policies impacting their valuations [4][5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The potential for retaliatory tariffs could dampen global trade, and the U.S. economy faces challenges in achieving tax cuts without reducing fiscal spending [3][5]. - The ongoing domestic divisions and chaos in the U.S. are expected to prolong the period of economic uncertainty, raising questions about the sustainability of the current economic trajectory [3][5]. - The market is at a crossroads, contemplating whether the U.S. is entering a "golden age" as claimed by Trump or if it is on the brink of a global economic downturn due to high tariffs [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unexpected volatility in the U.S. stock market following the implementation of new tariff policies by the Trump administration, leading to a reassessment of market expectations [1][2][4] - The S&P 500 index has fallen below its closing price on November 5, 2024, the day of the U.S. presidential election, indicating a significant market shift [2][4] - Initial optimism regarding Trump's policies has turned into uncertainty, as evidenced by the decline in stock prices and the reassessment of investment strategies [2][3] Group 2 - Many market participants had anticipated that 2025 would continue to see the U.S. as a dominant economic force, attracting global investment due to its stronger economy compared to Europe and China [3] - There were high expectations for the extension and permanence of personal income tax cuts and deregulation to boost corporate activity, with the belief that tariffs would be used more as negotiation tools [3][4] - However, the negative impacts of the new government's policies have begun to surface, with tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China, leading to retaliatory measures and increased economic pessimism among businesses and consumers [4][5] Group 3 - The market's concerns are reflected in the volatility of major asset prices, with a shift in investment from U.S. stocks to European stocks, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank [4] - The anticipated strengthening of the dollar is also diminishing, as the index measuring the dollar's strength against major currencies has fallen to its lowest point since the presidential election [4][5] - There is a growing awareness of risk, with some funds flowing into gold as a safe haven, while Bitcoin, despite a 20% increase, lacks previous momentum [4]