Core Viewpoint - The current market is characterized by high uncertainty regarding the seriousness and impact of the Trump administration's efforts to reshape the economic framework, with the upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" date of April 2 being a significant turning point [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - The Trump administration's initial approach to restoring industrial competitiveness involves raising tariffs, while also planning to implement a dollar depreciation policy if necessary, which could lead to market volatility [2][3]. - The market initially reacted positively to Trump's policies, reminiscent of "Trump 1.0," but the subsequent "Trump 2.0" has seen a significant downturn, with the stock market losses in March completely offsetting previous gains since the election [2][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the details of the reciprocal tariffs is seen as a critical moment, with mixed sentiments in the market as participants await clarity [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - There is a noticeable trend of diversifying investments away from U.S. markets, with funds being directed towards regions less affected by U.S. policies, such as China and Europe, which have seen significant stock market recoveries [3][4]. - Investors are increasingly focusing on assets with low sensitivity to Trump’s policies, referred to as "low beta" investments, such as gold, which has appreciated significantly over the past year [4]. - The "Magnificent 7" stocks that previously drove the U.S. market higher are now facing scrutiny, with concerns about their high sensitivity to Trump's policies impacting their valuations [4][5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The potential for retaliatory tariffs could dampen global trade, and the U.S. economy faces challenges in achieving tax cuts without reducing fiscal spending [3][5]. - The ongoing domestic divisions and chaos in the U.S. are expected to prolong the period of economic uncertainty, raising questions about the sustainability of the current economic trajectory [3][5]. - The market is at a crossroads, contemplating whether the U.S. is entering a "golden age" as claimed by Trump or if it is on the brink of a global economic downturn due to high tariffs [5].

资料图（REUTERS） 3月4日，美国标普500指数跌破了2024年11月5日（美国总统大选当日）的收盘价。美元买盘也 迅速放缓。许多市场相关人士一直预计2025年仍会是"美国独强"的局面。但新政府上台一个半月 之后，上调关税的政策等正在引发市场对前景的担忧…… 金融市场正在被迫对特朗普政策进行重新评估。投向美国股票的投资资金减少，美国标普 （S&P）500指数已跌去美国总统大选后的上涨部分。在外汇市场上，美元买盘也迅速放缓。在 减税措施延长和永久化等有利于经济的政策实现之前，围绕上调关税的交锋已然展开，从而引发 市场对经济恶化的担忧。 3月4日，一场面向投资者的活动在美国纽约举行。话题的核心是关税政策。 在华尔街，起初很多声音对特朗普总统的政策抱有期待，股价指数在2月创下最高点。然而，如 今的特朗普行情已回到原点。 在上面提到的纽约的活动中，美国大型投资基金公司凯雷集团（Carlyle Group）的CEO哈维・施 瓦茨（Harvey Schwartz）回顾称： "市场原以为，随着特朗普的胜选，不确定性已经消除"。 他 接着说道： "实际上我们迎来了一个充满不确定性的时代，这一点已经在股市走低上有所反映" ...