Group 1 - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China on February 25, 2026, was 10.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of piglets was 25.43 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of white strip meat was 15.25 yuan/kg, a decline of 0.35 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The market for live pigs continues to decline, with the national average price dropping by 0.17 yuan/kg, and prices in the Xinjiang region falling below 10 yuan/kg [2] - The supply of pigs is relatively abundant due to the resumption of outflow from farms, while demand remains weak, leading to downward pressure on prices [2] - Despite the price drop below 11 yuan/kg, there is an increase in reluctance to sell among smallholders, and low prices are encouraging secondary fattening, providing some support for price stabilization [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low prices stimulating consumption, the late Spring Festival causing demand to be postponed, and the structural shortage of large pigs jointly contributed to the unexpected rebound in pig prices. The logic for short - term price strength remains strong, but as time passes, the structural contradictions are expected to be gradually resolved, and prices are likely to return to the logic of overall oversupply. In the medium term, the logic supporting the current strong pig prices faces the risk of collapse. In the long term, the decline in production capacity will gradually be reflected in pig prices in the second half of next year. Operationally, attention should be paid to the upper pressure of contracts close to the off - season, with the main strategy being to short on rebounds. For long - term, pay attention to the lower support of far - month contracts [2][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Unexpected Strength of Spot after Winter Solstice - Traditionally, before the Winter Solstice, supply and demand are concentrated, and prices may run weakly or decline rapidly. After the Winter Solstice, supply decreases, and prices generally rebound moderately. In January, due to the uninitiated fresh consumption before the Spring Festival, the situation of strong supply and weak demand intensifies, and prices usually decline slowly until the last wave of consumption before the Spring Festival. This year, pig prices were unusually strong before the Winter Solstice and rebounded significantly afterwards. The reasons are: low prices stimulated consumption, the warm winter and the late Spring Festival led to a second peak in slaughter at the end of the year, and the shortage of large pigs intensified the structural contradiction. As of the end of December, the average pig price in Henan was 12.7 yuan/kg, up 1.02 yuan/kg from a week ago, with a growth rate of 8.7%, and the fat - standard price difference increased by 0.36 yuan to 0.9 yuan/kg [4][5] 3.2. Medium - term Basic Supply Remains Large - Since the beginning of 2024, piglets have been profitable for 19 months until September this year. During this period, sow production capacity remained stable or slightly increased, with almost no reduction. It is likely that the basic supply will remain extremely abundant until July next year, and overall pig prices will probably remain under pressure. After July, with the decline in production capacity being reflected in the出栏 volume and the influence of seasonal factors, there is room for improvement in the fundamentals in the second half of next year. From the perspective of piglets, the decline in piglet prices led to negative profits starting from September this year, and the number of piglet births peaked and declined in October. The theoretical出栏 volume is likely to decline from April next year, but due to the large previous base and small initial decline, the pig supply in the first and second quarters of next year may still be huge. After the Spring Festival next year, pig prices will face the traditional combination of high supply and weak demand, with significant upward pressure [10][13] 3.3. The Duration of Structural Benefits May Be Limited - The current strength of pig prices is mainly due to the resonance between consumption stimulated by low prices, demand postponed due to the late Spring Festival, and the structural shortage of large pigs. In the short term, the relatively high fat - standard price difference can drive further pig penning and secondary fattening, supporting the standard pig price. However, in the medium term, as the contradiction of the shortage of large pigs is further resolved, the logic supporting the strong pig prices may collapse, and prices are likely to return to the logic of overall oversupply. Therefore, the factors supporting the strong pig prices are strong but may be short - lived [16]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig prices experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, influenced by active market conditions and supply pressures, suggesting a recommendation to short on rebounds in the long term [1] Price Trends - In Henan, the average price increased by 0.26 yuan to 14.62 yuan/kg, with a weekly high of 14.78 yuan/kg - In Sichuan, the average price rose by 0.06 yuan to 14.16 yuan/kg, with a weekly high of 14.4 yuan/kg - In Guangdong, the average price increased by 0.12 yuan to 15.38 yuan/kg [1][1][1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The official sow inventory in April was 40.38 million heads, showing a slight month-on-month decline but still 3.5% above normal levels - Increased sow capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental outlook for 2025 compared to 2024 - The theoretical output of piglets is expected to remain high until the third quarter of 2025, necessitating attention to the rhythm of market supply and sentiment [1][1][1] Consumption Environment - The overall consumption environment is weak, with changing consumer habits negatively impacting pork consumption - Year-on-year, pork consumption is declining, and month-on-month, the impact of holiday consumption on prices should be monitored [1][1][1] Market Outlook - Short-term spot performance is weak, but the window for further inventory accumulation is not fully closed, limiting the downside potential for prices - In the long term, under supply pressure, it is advised not to take long positions, and there is no need to aggressively short in the near term; the focus should be on shorting on rebounds while waiting for better price levels [1][1][1]