Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market continued to be strong this week, with the upward trend slowing down. Supply convergence was the main driving factor, and the downstream's price - raising purchases promoted the price increase. The market has deviated from the state of strong supply and weak demand during the supply season. The price may be stable with intermittent pressure at the end of the year [1][2]. - The corn starch market was also strong this week. The increase in raw material prices provided support, and the supply was tight in some areas, leading to a slight increase in starch prices. However, the recovery of corn prices led to a contraction in industry profits [2]. - CBOT corn futures closed higher this week, with an increase of 1.74% in the active contract, supported by good domestic demand and the expected reduction in yield per unit [2][63]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Corn supply was in the stage of inventory consumption, and the peak of concentrated selling pressure had passed. The supply - structure problem in North China caused by precipitation was prominent, and downstream demand was strong. The supply - demand structure was moving towards balance, and prices continued to rise [1]. - The price performance of different regions was differentiated. The Northeast region was stable with a weakening upward trend, the South Port was stable, and North China showed differentiation, with Shandong having the strongest upward trend [1]. - The main contract of Dalian corn futures closed up for three consecutive weeks, standing above the 2200 - yuan mark [1]. - In the short - term, factors such as state - reserve purchases, low channel inventory, and reduced imports supported price increases. In the long - term, there was a tight supply - demand expectation, but in 2026, the regulation of pig production capacity might have a negative impact on corn feed demand [7]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The end of the retracement was more obvious, and the probability of finding the bottom continued to increase. The 01 contract continued to rise after consolidation, and attention should be paid to whether it could break through the annual - line pressure [8]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Mid - and downstream enterprises should pay attention to the risk of rising long - term procurement costs. Grain - holding entities with low - cost inventory could consider hedging part of their inventory at high prices [8]. - **Basis, Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: There were no recommended basis and spread strategies for now. For cross - variety arbitrage, it was not suitable for operation for the time being, and for the pig - grain ratio, arbitrage should be on the sidelines [8][12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Corn hedging short positions were recommended to be reduced, and virtual inventory could be established at low prices (waiting to enter the market below 2100 yuan) [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: State - reserve purchases continued, the selling progress was fast, and farmers were reluctant to sell. Cold weather was conducive to grain storage, and the US government might introduce a subsidy plan [23]. - **Negative Information**: The IGC raised the global corn production forecast for 2025/26, and there were news of the release of old wheat and continuous auctions of imported corn [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Pay attention to the price changes and transaction results of CNGC's procurement and auctions, the price - supporting strength of state - reserve purchases in the Northeast, and whether price increases would stimulate selling pressure [23]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The main contract of Dalian corn futures closed up for three consecutive weeks, and the starch market strengthened after adjustment. The trading volume of starch increased while the position decreased [24]. - **Fund Flow**: The total position and trading volume of the 01 contract of corn changed little, and the total position of the 01 contract of starch decreased slightly while the trading volume increased [25]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The basis of Jinzhou Port was in a reasonable range and weakened slightly. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of corn continued to narrow, and the starch - corn spread widened [34][43][59]. - **External Market**: CBOT corn futures closed higher, with an increase of 1.74% in the active contract [63]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Tracking**: The spread between Dalian corn and US corn weakened this week [65]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking - Planting profit was better than last year, especially in the Northeast. Trade profit was improving, while deep - processing profit showed a slight decline [67]. - The basis of Jinzhou Port was neutral to weak, and the spot - futures price resonance increased. There was hedging profit for far - month contracts, but it was not recommended to enter the market for hedging [67]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The increase in domestic prices was smaller than that in foreign prices, and the import profit changed little [69]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China**: The supply - demand balance sheet showed that production was increasing, and the annual surplus in 2025/26 was expected to be 3.55 million tons [73]. - **Global**: The global supply - demand balance sheet showed that production was increasing, but the inventory - consumption ratio was decreasing [74]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Supply was gradually decreasing, and the selling pressure in the Northeast would be smaller. The proportion of high - quality corn in North China decreased, and there might be a shortage of high - quality corn [75]. - Procurement enthusiasm remained high, and state - reserve purchases were firm. Import volume decreased significantly, and the negative impact was not obvious [75]. - Port inventory increased slightly in the North and decreased in the South, and overall inventory was still at a low level [77]. - In the US, corn harvest was almost over, and there was a possibility of reducing yield per unit [79]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Consumption demand was good, and feed demand was supported by the peak slaughter season and secondary fattening. However, in 2026, the regulation of pig production capacity might affect corn feed demand [81]. - Deep - processing demand was in a good state, but the growth trend was slowing down. Corn starch market was strong, alcohol demand remained high, and sugar - deep - processing products showed a slight recovery [84].

南华期货玉米&淀粉产业日报 2025年10月10日 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 四季度处于新季玉米集中供应期，10月份收获以及集中上市压力较大，供需结构阶段性失衡导致价格易跌难 涨，新季玉米价格高开后一路走低； 连盘玉米期货震荡下跌运行，继续消化新季上市带来的供应压力，价格重心有进一步下移可能，关注因上量 冲击造成价格超跌带来的底部机会； CBOT玉米期价低位盘整，等待美国农业部10月供需报告的进一步指引； 【利多因素】 1、玉米及谷物进口数量维持低水平，为中期玉米供需结构改善提供基础； 4、10月7日，农业农村部召开会议，调度秋粮抢收抢烘和秋冬种情况。强调全力应对黄淮海地区持续连阴雨 天气影响，切实抓好秋粮抢收抢烘和秋冬种工作，及时协调解决基层困难，全力以赴做好黄淮海地区"三秋"生 产工作。 【利空因素】 1、生猪产业处于产能调控过程中，或中期影响玉米饲用需求； 玉米&淀粉现货价格及主连基差 | 玉米 | 价格&基差 | 今日涨跌 | 玉米淀粉 | 价格&基差 | 今日涨跌 | | -- ...