Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Views - For corn, due to the increase in US corn production and ending stocks by USDA, international corn prices are dragged down. In the domestic market, with new grains to be listed in September in the Northeast production area, the supply is relatively loose, demand support is limited, and the spot price is under pressure. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2] - For corn starch, as previously shutdown enterprises resume production, the industry's operating rate has rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2166 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2484 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. Corn futures持仓量 (active contract) is 949895 hands, up 12659 hands; corn starch futures持仓量 (active contract) is 200843 hands, up 6844 hands [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 91084 hands, up 11036 hands; for corn starch, it is - 21149 hands, up 1645 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 105851 hands, down 4924 hands; that of corn starch is 7450 hands, unchanged [2] - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 366 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 403 cents/bushel, down 3.5 cents; CBOT corn total position (weekly) is 1549876 contracts, down 67625 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long position (weekly) is - 133174 contracts, down 25206 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2384.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The f.o.b. price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, up 0.11 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the corn main contract is 214.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 221 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, down 1.06 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 138 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 12 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 398.93 million tons, down 2.92 million tons; the predicted sown area in the US is 35.12 million hectares, down 0.25 million hectares [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in China is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 75.1 tons, down 14.5 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 340.2 tons, down 24.1 tons [2] - The corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 247 tons, down 22 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly) is 133.9 tons, up 0.7 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, down 10 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, down 13.28 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 70 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 114.06 tons, down 2.4 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises (weekly) is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises (weekly) is 52.3%, down 3.6% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.87%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.86%, down 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.34% [2] Industry News - Based on a sample survey of 179 farmlands, the expected corn yield per acre in Indiana is 193.82 bushels, higher than last year's 187.54 bushels/acre and the three - year average of 182.09 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2003 [2] - Based on 336 samples, the expected corn yield per acre in Nebraska this year is 179.50 bushels, higher than 173.25 bushels/acre in the 2024 survey and the three - year average of 166.33 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2021 [2] Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: The USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bearish, causing international corn prices to decline. In the domestic market, factors such as continuous import corn auctions in the Northeast, the release of old - stock corn, good growth of new - season corn, and upcoming bulk listing of spring corn suppress the bullish sentiment in the spot market. The market trading activity is poor, and feed enterprises' consumption enthusiasm is low. Most deep - processing enterprises replenish stocks based on supply and demand. The spot price is weak, and the corn futures market is in a weak trend, suggesting a bearish approach [2]. - **Corn Starch**: As previously - overhauled enterprises resume production, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has increased, leading to greater supply - side pressure. The downstream demand is still in the off - season with poor order - taking and sales. The supply exceeds demand. The inventory has increased, and the futures market shows a weak trend, also suggesting a bearish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Domestic**: Corn futures' active - contract closing price is 2177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; corn starch futures' active - contract closing price is 2594 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn decreased by 28,029 hands, and for corn starch, it remained unchanged. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn decreased by 2102 hands, and for corn starch, it remained unchanged [2]. - **CBOT**: The closing price of CBOT corn futures is 405.75 cents/bushel, up 7.25 cents. The total position decreased by 67,625 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 25,206 contracts [2]. **Spot Market** - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2393.92 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan. The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The CIF price of imported corn is 1926.05 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory - quoted prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. **Upstream Situation** - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, Brazil 131 million tons, Argentina 53 million tons, China 295 million tons, and Ukraine 30.5 million tons. The predicted sown areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: Corn inventories at southern ports decreased by 14.5 tons to 75.1 tons, and at northern ports decreased by 22 tons to 247 tons. The starch enterprise inventory increased by 1.2 tons to 133.2 tons [2]. - **Trade Volume**: The monthly import volume of corn decreased by 3 tons to 16 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch increased by 4.06 tons to 27.78 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - **Feed**: The monthly feed production increased by 175.6 tons to 2937.7 tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days decreased by 0.83 days to 29.61 days [2]. - **Deep - processing**: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn decreased by 2.4 tons to 114.06 tons. The operating rate of alcohol enterprises decreased by 1.08% to 42%, and that of starch enterprises increased by 2.07% to 55.9% [2]. **Option Market** - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn decreased by 3.48% to 5.89%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 1.73% to 5.89%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options on corn increased by 5.84% and 5.82% respectively to 21.26% and 21.24% [2]. **Industry News** - Field research by AgResource shows that corn and soybeans in northern and eastern Iowa have strong growth potential close to record yields. Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised the 2025 US corn yield per acre by 1 bushel to a record 183 bushels per acre [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows an increase in the estimated 2025/26 US corn planting area, yield per acre, production, and ending inventory, which is overall bearish for the market [2].