玉米系产业日报 2026-01-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 0 | 2281 | | 2555 | 0 | | | 玉米月间价差(5-9):(日,元/吨) 吨) -3 玉米淀粉月间价差(3-5):(日,元/吨) | -21 | | -35 | 0 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) 5474 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 1073216 | | 196443 | -558 | | | 9194 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -143698 | | -40964 | 946 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 2000 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) 手) | 45417 | | 12477 | 0 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) 0 | 327 | | | ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Views Corn - The U.S. corn harvest is nearly complete, with high short - term supply pressure. The USDA report is slightly bearish overall, but U.S. corn shows a strong oscillation due to the rise of soybeans and wheat. In China's Northeast, prices have risen due to purchases and reduced supply, but the slow market movement limits further price increases. In the North China Huang - Huai region, the strong reluctance of farmers to sell keeps market purchases low, and the price increase of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down. The corn futures price has slightly declined recently, suggesting short - term waiting and seeing [2][3] Corn Starch - With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate has risen, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. The starch inventory has decreased. Recently, the starch price has declined along with the corn market, suggesting short - term waiting and seeing [4] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2480 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 70 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 1 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract): 945,952 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 217,188 lots, down 1,539 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 113,125 lots for corn, - 44,299 lots for corn starch, up 2,714 lots. Registered warehouse receipts: 69,337 lots for yellow corn, 12,453 lots for corn starch. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 340 yuan/ton. CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 435.5 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly): 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts [2] Spot Market - Corn average spot price: 2,278.82 yuan/ton; corn flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port: 2,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Imported corn CIF price: 2,032.69 yuan/ton; international freight for imported corn: 0 dollars/ton. Corn starch ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,510 yuan/ton, 2,750 yuan/ton, and 2,680 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 43 yuan, up 22 yuan; the basis of the corn main contract is - 7 yuan. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 500 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2,500.06 yuan/ton. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 440 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 210 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown areas of corn in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively. Forecasted corn yields in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and no data respectively [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern and northern ports are not provided. Deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 273.50 million tons, down 6 million tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly): 110.9 million tons, down 2.4 million tons. Monthly corn import volume: 6 million tons; monthly corn starch export volume: 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons. Monthly feed production: 3,128.7 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 25.61 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 138.65 million tons. Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 67.29%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 60.89%, down 2.59%. Corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 31 yuan/ton, 104 yuan/ton, and 28 yuan/ton respectively [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.43%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.72%, up 0.03%. Implied volatility of at - the - money call options on corn: 7.92%, up 0.89%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options on corn: 7.92%, up 0.89% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending November 16, 2025, the U.S. corn harvest rate was 91%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 94%. As of November 15, 2025, the planting of Brazil's first - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 52.6% complete, compared with 47.7% last week, 52.4% last year, and a five - year average of 53.0% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Views - For corn, due to the increase in US corn production and ending stocks by USDA, international corn prices are dragged down. In the domestic market, with new grains to be listed in September in the Northeast production area, the supply is relatively loose, demand support is limited, and the spot price is under pressure. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2] - For corn starch, as previously shutdown enterprises resume production, the industry's operating rate has rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2166 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2484 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. Corn futures持仓量 (active contract) is 949895 hands, up 12659 hands; corn starch futures持仓量 (active contract) is 200843 hands, up 6844 hands [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 91084 hands, up 11036 hands; for corn starch, it is - 21149 hands, up 1645 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 105851 hands, down 4924 hands; that of corn starch is 7450 hands, unchanged [2] - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 366 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 403 cents/bushel, down 3.5 cents; CBOT corn total position (weekly) is 1549876 contracts, down 67625 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long position (weekly) is - 133174 contracts, down 25206 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2384.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The f.o.b. price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, up 0.11 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the corn main contract is 214.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 221 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, down 1.06 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 138 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 12 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 398.93 million tons, down 2.92 million tons; the predicted sown area in the US is 35.12 million hectares, down 0.25 million hectares [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in China is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 75.1 tons, down 14.5 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 340.2 tons, down 24.1 tons [2] - The corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 247 tons, down 22 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly) is 133.9 tons, up 0.7 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, down 10 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, down 13.28 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 70 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 114.06 tons, down 2.4 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises (weekly) is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises (weekly) is 52.3%, down 3.6% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.87%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.86%, down 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.34% [2] Industry News - Based on a sample survey of 179 farmlands, the expected corn yield per acre in Indiana is 193.82 bushels, higher than last year's 187.54 bushels/acre and the three - year average of 182.09 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2003 [2] - Based on 336 samples, the expected corn yield per acre in Nebraska this year is 179.50 bushels, higher than 173.25 bushels/acre in the 2024 survey and the three - year average of 166.33 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2021 [2] Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: The USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bearish, causing international corn prices to decline. In the domestic market, factors such as continuous import corn auctions in the Northeast, the release of old - stock corn, good growth of new - season corn, and upcoming bulk listing of spring corn suppress the bullish sentiment in the spot market. The market trading activity is poor, and feed enterprises' consumption enthusiasm is low. Most deep - processing enterprises replenish stocks based on supply and demand. The spot price is weak, and the corn futures market is in a weak trend, suggesting a bearish approach [2]. - **Corn Starch**: As previously - overhauled enterprises resume production, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has increased, leading to greater supply - side pressure. The downstream demand is still in the off - season with poor order - taking and sales. The supply exceeds demand. The inventory has increased, and the futures market shows a weak trend, also suggesting a bearish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Domestic**: Corn futures' active - contract closing price is 2177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; corn starch futures' active - contract closing price is 2594 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn decreased by 28,029 hands, and for corn starch, it remained unchanged. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn decreased by 2102 hands, and for corn starch, it remained unchanged [2]. - **CBOT**: The closing price of CBOT corn futures is 405.75 cents/bushel, up 7.25 cents. The total position decreased by 67,625 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 25,206 contracts [2]. **Spot Market** - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2393.92 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan. The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The CIF price of imported corn is 1926.05 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory - quoted prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. **Upstream Situation** - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, Brazil 131 million tons, Argentina 53 million tons, China 295 million tons, and Ukraine 30.5 million tons. The predicted sown areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: Corn inventories at southern ports decreased by 14.5 tons to 75.1 tons, and at northern ports decreased by 22 tons to 247 tons. The starch enterprise inventory increased by 1.2 tons to 133.2 tons [2]. - **Trade Volume**: The monthly import volume of corn decreased by 3 tons to 16 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch increased by 4.06 tons to 27.78 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - **Feed**: The monthly feed production increased by 175.6 tons to 2937.7 tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days decreased by 0.83 days to 29.61 days [2]. - **Deep - processing**: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn decreased by 2.4 tons to 114.06 tons. The operating rate of alcohol enterprises decreased by 1.08% to 42%, and that of starch enterprises increased by 2.07% to 55.9% [2]. **Option Market** - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn decreased by 3.48% to 5.89%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 1.73% to 5.89%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options on corn increased by 5.84% and 5.82% respectively to 21.26% and 21.24% [2]. **Industry News** - Field research by AgResource shows that corn and soybeans in northern and eastern Iowa have strong growth potential close to record yields. Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised the 2025 US corn yield per acre by 1 bushel to a record 183 bushels per acre [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows an increase in the estimated 2025/26 US corn planting area, yield per acre, production, and ending inventory, which is overall bearish for the market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the Sino-US tariff dispute is favorable to domestic corn prices; in the Northeast, the remaining grain is running out, and traders are reluctant to sell; in the North China and Huanghuai regions, the purchase of high - priced grain is limited, and the new - season planting area is expected to be stable but the sowing progress may be delayed due to weather; wheat drought indirectly boosts corn prices; short - term participation is recommended for the corn futures [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand situation is weak, with continuous losses in industry profits, a decline in the开机率, but limited downstream demand and high inventory; short - term participation is recommended for the corn starch futures [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2338 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan), the 9 - 1 monthly spread is 72 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), the trading volume of the active contract is 1359385 hands (up 30902 hands), the net long position of the top 20 is - 154292 hands (up 1674 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 60846 hands (up 17951 hands) [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2701 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), the 7 - 9 monthly spread is - 64 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), the trading volume of the active contract is 225680 hands (up 5424 hands), the net long position of the top 20 is - 15207 hands (up 3288 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 5950 hands (unchanged) [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 479.5 cents/bushel (down 3.5 cents), the total position is 1723995 contracts (down 86141 contracts), and the non - commercial net long position is 234182 contracts (up 61300 contracts) [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2279.61 yuan/ton (up 2.16 yuan), the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2230 yuan/ton (unchanged), the CIF price of imported corn is 2145.9 yuan/ton (down 6.84 yuan), and the international freight of imported corn is 42 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2590 yuan/ton, 2760 yuan/ton, and 2740 yuan/ton respectively (all unchanged); the basis of the main contract is - 111 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2436.44 yuan/ton (up 2.88 yuan), the price difference between cassava starch and corn starch is 269 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan), and the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 74 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 377.63 million tons, 126 million tons, 50 million tons, 294.92 million tons, and 26.8 million tons respectively (all unchanged); the predicted sowing areas are 33.55 million hectares, 22.3 million hectares, 6.4 million hectares, 44.74 million hectares, and 0.3 million hectares respectively (all unchanged) [2]. Industrial Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 164.5 million tons (up 11.4 million tons), and at northern ports is 530 million tons (down 25 million tons) [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 138.7 million tons (up 0.4 million tons) [2]. - Trade volume: The monthly import volume of corn is 8 million tons (unchanged), and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20350 tons (down 930 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production: The monthly output is 2777.2 million tons (down 66.4 million tons), and the inventory days of sample feed corn is 35.54 days (up 0.35 days) [2]. - Corn consumption: The weekly consumption in deep - processing is 126.43 million tons (down 5.38 million tons) [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The weekly开机率 of alcohol enterprises is 53.85% (down 5.32%), and that of starch enterprises is 58.37% (up 4.43%) [2]. Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.52% (up 0.06%), the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.64% (up 0.05%), the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.72% (down 0.45%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.72% (down 0.46%) [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday, and analysts expect the net export sales volume of US corn from April 11 - 17, 2025, to be between 800,000 and 1.4 million tons [2]. Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the weekly corn consumption data and the开机率 and inventory data of starch enterprises from Thursday to Friday [3].