研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -16 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) -5 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | 2143 -73 | 吨) | 2468 12 | -15 -13 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -44063 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 596123 | | 150741 | -13614 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 20133 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -30523 | 手) | -37380 | 29 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 0 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 21549 | | 8028 | -161 | | | ...

玉米&淀粉产业链日报 2025/09/30 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z002181） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾 】 2、华北部分产区受降雨影响收割延后，旧季粮源供应偏紧； 【利空解读】 1、玉米处于新季收获上市期，供应的阶段性宽松对价格造成压力； 2、中下游收购心态较为谨慎，博弈价格低点； 玉米&淀粉期货盘面价格 | | 2025-09-26 | 2025-09-29 | 今日涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米11 | 2178 | 2159 | -19 | -0.87% | | 玉米01 | 2139 | 2135 | -4 | -0.19% | | 玉米03 | 2151 | 2149 | -2 | -0.09% | | 玉米05 | 2205 | 2203 | -2 | -0.09% | | 玉米07 | 2217 | 2213 | -4 | -0.18% | | 玉米09 | 2227 | 2227 | 0 | 0.00% | | 玉米淀粉11 | 2480 | 2 ...

玉米系产业日报 2025-09-29 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 深加工企业亏损加剧，收购价格有所下调。盘面来看，随着新季玉米逐步上市，对盘面仍有所牵制，维持 偏空思路。 | | 目前玉米淀粉市场行情偏弱，企业仍处于亏损状态，行业开机率整体维持偏低位置运行。供应压力较小，叠加节前需求略有好转， | | --- | --- | | 观点总结（ | 使得库存继续下滑。截至9月24日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量113.9万吨，较上周下降6.10万吨，周降幅5.08%，月降幅13.5 | | 淀粉） | | | 重点关注 | 8%；年同比增幅28.85%。不过，行业库存仍然偏高，且木薯淀粉和小麦淀粉替代优势仍然较好，继续挤压玉米淀粉市场需求。盘 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月25日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：日内豆油期价上涨。主要原因在于阿根廷出口免税额度用尽 ，以及此前消息称美国或将采取必要措施支持阿根廷进行美元货币 互换以缓解阿 ...

玉米&淀粉产业链日报 2025/09/26 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z002181） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾 】 新季供应压力显现，新粮报价高开后持续回落，集中上市期价格仍将承压； 当前玉米上量有限，部分地区推迟收获，现货价格相较于期货端呈现一定韧性，期货盘面止跌反弹； 当前基差处于偏高水平，随着进入新粮大量上市，基差面临回落风险； CBOT玉米低位盘整，消化丰产预期压力及等待供应端进一步指引； 阿根廷短期出口政策反复，对农产品市场价格造成意外扰动； 【利多解读】 1、9月25日，农业农村部召开全国粮油作物大面积单产提升暨"三秋"生产视频会，后期中储粮收购储备政策 或将视价格运行情况择机出台，存有不确定性； 2、8月进口玉米保持地量水平，替代压力较小； 3、旧季粮源供应偏紧，部分产区收获延迟，补充尚需时间，深加工刚需补库支撑现货价格； 【利空解读】 玉米&淀粉期货盘面价格 | | 2025-09-24 | 2025-09-25 | 今日涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - New - season supply pressure drives down corn prices. After the new - grain offer opened high, it has been falling, and there is still downward pressure on prices after large - scale listing [1] - Currently, the amount of corn on the market is limited, the decline of spot prices is small. The spot market shows the characteristics of continuous decline of damp grain and firm dry grain, and the near - month contracts of the futures market are resistant to decline [1] - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as new grain is listed in large quantities [1] - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of the expected bumper harvest and waiting for further guidance from the supply side [1] 3. Summaries according to Related Catalogues 3.1 Corn & Starch Futures Prices | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 23 | 2025 - 09 - 24 | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2158 | 2164 | 6 | 0.28% | | Corn 01 | 2134 | 2136 | 2 | 0.09% | | Corn 03 | 2148 | 2146 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Corn 05 | 2204 | 2202 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Corn 07 | 2220 | 2215 | - 5 | - 0.23% | | Corn 09 | 2229 | 2229 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2447 | 2469 | 22 | 0.90% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2452 | 2462 | 10 | 0.41% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2457 | 2464 | 7 | 0.28% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2539 | 2544 | 5 | 0.20% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2544 | 2549 | 5 | 0.20% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2572 | 2591 | 19 | 0.74% | | Wheat Average Price | 2442 | 2444 | 2 | 0.08% | [2] 3.2利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The market is looking forward to the later purchase and reserve policy of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation, but it takes time and there is uncertainty [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, and the substitution pressure was small [3] - The supply of old - season grain sources is tight, and it takes time for new - season grain to supplement. Shandong deep - processing enterprises generally raised prices to promote purchases [3] 3.3利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary oversupply of supply puts pressure on prices [3] - The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have been lowered, transportation is difficult, and local enterprises mainly lower prices [3] 3.4 Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main - continuous Basis | Corn | Price & Basis | Today's Change | Corn Starch | Price & Basis | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2300 | 0 | Shandong | 2780 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2440 | 0 | Jilin | 2570 | 0 | | Harbin | 2170 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2520 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - continuous Basis | 136 | - 6 | Shandong Main - continuous Basis | 311 | - 22 | [12] 3.5 US Corn Prices and Import Profits | | Price | Daily Change | Increase Rate | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - continuous | 424 | - 1.75 | - 0.41% | | | COBT Soybean Main - continuous | 1008.5 | - 4 | - 0.4% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - continuous | 519.5 | - 1.25 | - 0.24% | | | US Gulf Duty - paid Price | 2146.62 | 13.18 | 0.62% | 293.38 | | US West Duty - paid Price | 2004.48 | 13.24 | 0.66% | 435.52 | [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - For corn, the USDA report predicts that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record - high of 16.814 billion bushels, and the ending stocks will also reach the highest level in seven years. With the progress of US corn harvest, the supply pressure will gradually increase. However, the early harvest results are mixed, leading to an expectation of a possible downward adjustment in US corn production. In the domestic market, the new grain harvest area in Liaoning and Heilongjiang in the Northeast region is expanding, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain is high. As the supply of new corn increases, the downstream demand is relatively weak, the losses of deep - processing enterprises are intensifying, and the purchase price has been lowered. The new - season corn listing still restricts the futures market [2]. - For corn starch, the market is currently weak, and enterprises are still in a loss state. The industry's operating rate is generally low. Due to a slight improvement in pre - holiday demand, the inventory continues to decline. As of September 24, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.139 million tons, a weekly decrease of 61,000 tons, a weekly decline of 5.08%, a monthly decline of 13.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.85%. However, the industry inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of tapioca starch and wheat starch are still significant, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. Although there has been a slight rebound at low levels recently, the demand support is insufficient, and the corn starch market maintains a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures was 2,469 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn was 425.75 cents/bushel, up 4 cents. The net long non - commercial position of CBOT corn decreased by 36,169 contracts, and the total position increased by 51,949 contracts [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2,164 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 251 contracts, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 20 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price was 2,357.25 yuan/ton, up 0.78 yuan; the average price of imported corn was 1,939.55 yuan/ton, down 0.47 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun was 2,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang was 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang was 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine were 425.26 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively; the predicted yields were 35.89 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 1.5 million tons respectively [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports decreased by 55,000 tons to 601,000 tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory decreased by 147,000 tons to 2.34 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch was 15,940 tons, an increase of 1,440 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed was 29.272 million tons, and the corn starch processing profit in Shandong was - 72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption decreased by 1,100 tons to 115,630 tons, and the alcohol enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.28 percentage points to 50.31% [2]. - The starch enterprise operating rate increased by 2.21 percentage points to 50.36%, and the corn starch processing profit in Hebei was 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The historical volatility of corn in 20 days was 10%, unchanged; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.5%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.5%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of September 22, the grain export volume of Ukraine in the 2025/26 season was 5.82 million tons, higher than 5.251 million tons a week ago but lower than 9.764 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - Private exporters reported selling 122,947 tons of US corn to Mexico, with 100,593 tons to be delivered in the 2025/26 season and 22,354 tons in the 2026/27 season [2].

玉米&淀粉产业链日报 2025/09/24 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z002181） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾 】 新季供应压力驱动价格下行，东北多地深加工企业继续下调新粮报价，华北地区深加工（除山东）价格走 弱； 玉米需求端整体稳定，进口压力有限； 当前玉米上量有限，现货价格下跌幅度较小，使得提前收获地区获益，后期价格压力将逐步增加； 当前基差处于偏高水平，随着进入新粮大量上市，基差面临回落风险； 【利多解读】 1、山东深加工企业报价坚挺； 2、8月进口玉米保持地量水平，替代压力较小； 3、近日，国家粮食和物资储备局举行2025年全国秋粮收购暨粮食产业项目推进工作会议。会议指出，抓好粮 食收购和项目建设，对保持粮食市场平稳运行、加快粮食产业高质量发展具有重要意义。做好秋粮收购工 作，需在提升收储能力等五方面下功夫，坚决守住农民"种粮卖得出"的底线，不断提升国家粮食安全保障能 力。 【利空解读】 1、玉米处于新季收获上市期，供应的阶段性宽松对价格造成压力； 2、多地深加工企业下调新粮收购报价，尤其黑龙江地区新粮报价较初期有连续下跌过 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - New - season supply pressure leads to a decline in futures prices, and many deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have lowered the purchase price of new grain; the overall demand for corn is stable, and the import pressure is limited; the supply - demand structure is turning loose, and the main task in the fourth quarter is to digest the pressure of new grain [1] - There are both positive and negative factors in the corn market. Positive factors include a slight rebound in spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai, low - volume imports in August, and successful corn procurement by the Chengdu branch of Sinograin. Negative factors are the new - season harvest causing supply pressure and weakened market sentiment due to price cuts by deep - processing enterprises [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Corn & Starch Futures Price Changes - From September 19 to September 22, 2025, most corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price declines. For example, corn 11 dropped from 2168 to 2158 (-0.46%), and corn starch 11 dropped from 2463 to 2447 (-0.65%). The wheat average price rose slightly by 0.04% [2] Positive Factors - Corn spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai have slightly rebounded [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, with less substitution pressure [3] - On the 22nd, the Chengdu branch of Sinograin conducted a corn bidding procurement of 4100 tons, all of which were successfully transacted, and there were no sales sessions [3] Negative Factors - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary supply surplus exerts pressure on prices [3] - Many deep - processing enterprises have lowered the purchase price of new grain, further weakening market sentiment [3] Spot Prices and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions (such as Jinzhou Port, Shekou Port, and Harbin) remained unchanged on the day, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract increased by 21. Corn starch spot prices in different regions (such as Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) also remained unchanged, and the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract increased by 42 [11] US Corn Prices and Import Profits - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract dropped by 0.59% to 421.75. The import profit of US Gulf is 306.56 yuan/ton, and that of US West is 448.76 yuan/ton [24]

着新玉米上量增多，下游需求相对低迷,深加工企业亏损加剧，收购价格有所下调。盘面来看，随着新季玉 米逐步上市，对盘面仍有所牵制，维持偏空思路。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) | 2158 -70 | 11 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 4 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | 2447 -5 | 16 14 | | | | | 吨) | | | | | 期货持仓量 ...