。 | 观点总结（ | 随着前期检修企业陆续复工，近来玉米淀粉行业开机率有所回升，供应端压力增加。同时，下游需求仍处淡季，签单走货欠佳，玉 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | 米淀粉供大于求格局明显。截至8月20日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量133.9万吨，较上周增加0.70万吨，周增幅0.53%，月增 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 幅2.14%；年同比增幅25.61%。盘面来看，淀粉总体仍维持偏弱趋势，偏空思路对待。 | 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 玉米系产业日报 2025-08-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2164 | 6 | 2471 | -4 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5) ...

福禧粮油的套保"初体验" 近年来，期货市场在服务实体经济、管理价格风险方面发挥着日益重要的作用。不过，部分产业企业在 初期接触期货工具时，常面临认知和经验不足的挑战。大商所于2019年推出的"企业风险管理计划"（下 称企风计划），成功助力数百家产业企业迈出了参与期货市场的"第一步"，为他们参与期货市场提供了 宝贵的"试验田"。如今，一批粮油产业的先行者已在企风计划这条"起跑线"上迈出坚实步伐，实现了 从"试水"到常态化应用期货工具的跨越。 地处东北粮仓的呼伦贝尔福禧粮油有限公司（下称福禧粮油）主要是从事国产非转基因大豆的收购和加 工，原料采购与产品销售两端的价格波动一直是其经营面临的主要风险。 "在参加大商所企风计划之前，我们对期货有一定的了解，但仅限于管理层的几个骨干人员，并未参与 过期货交易，也没有设立针对套期保值的专项部门和人员配置。"福禧粮油副总经理王冷初表示。 转机出现在2022年，福禧粮油在国投期货的指导下参与企风计划，首次尝试利用期货工具进行套期保 值。 "2022年2月，俄乌冲突爆发，以原油为代表的大宗商品价格普遍上涨，加剧了市场对未来粮食价格进一 步上涨的担忧，对大豆加工企业把握市场节奏、控 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：油脂供应充足，豆油价格继续低开低走。主要原因在于市场 尚未证实的消息称可能会有600万吨大豆抛储并进口美豆轮换（消 息尚未证实）。中美、中加贸易关系依旧严峻，市场对于四季度油 籽供应存在担忧。目前豆油市场处于"弱现实+强预期"格局，弱 现实主要表现为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Views - For corn, due to the increase in US corn production and ending stocks by USDA, international corn prices are dragged down. In the domestic market, with new grains to be listed in September in the Northeast production area, the supply is relatively loose, demand support is limited, and the spot price is under pressure. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2] - For corn starch, as previously shutdown enterprises resume production, the industry's operating rate has rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2166 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2484 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. Corn futures持仓量 (active contract) is 949895 hands, up 12659 hands; corn starch futures持仓量 (active contract) is 200843 hands, up 6844 hands [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 91084 hands, up 11036 hands; for corn starch, it is - 21149 hands, up 1645 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 105851 hands, down 4924 hands; that of corn starch is 7450 hands, unchanged [2] - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 366 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 403 cents/bushel, down 3.5 cents; CBOT corn total position (weekly) is 1549876 contracts, down 67625 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long position (weekly) is - 133174 contracts, down 25206 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2384.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The f.o.b. price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, up 0.11 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the corn main contract is 214.71 yuan/ton, down 6.66 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 221 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, down 1.06 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 138 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 12 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 398.93 million tons, down 2.92 million tons; the predicted sown area in the US is 35.12 million hectares, down 0.25 million hectares [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; the predicted sown area in China is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - The predicted annual corn production in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 75.1 tons, down 14.5 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 340.2 tons, down 24.1 tons [2] - The corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 247 tons, down 22 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly) is 133.9 tons, up 0.7 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, down 10 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, down 13.28 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 70 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 114.06 tons, down 2.4 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises (weekly) is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises (weekly) is 52.3%, down 3.6% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.87%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.86%, down 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.11%, down 0.34% [2] Industry News - Based on a sample survey of 179 farmlands, the expected corn yield per acre in Indiana is 193.82 bushels, higher than last year's 187.54 bushels/acre and the three - year average of 182.09 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2003 [2] - Based on 336 samples, the expected corn yield per acre in Nebraska this year is 179.50 bushels, higher than 173.25 bushels/acre in the 2024 survey and the three - year average of 166.33 bushels/acre, reaching the highest level since 2021 [2] Key Focus - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. Short - term callback space is limited, and it is bullish in the long - term. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [3]. - The rapeseed oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to trade policy changes and sufficient inventory [3]. - The palm oil price has a short - term adjustment demand due to factors such as price comparison pressure and potential production impacts in Indonesia [4]. - The soybean meal is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation, and the price is expected to be bullish in the long - term [3][4]. - The corn and corn starch prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [5]. - The soybean price is affected by new supply and market sentiment, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The peanut price is under pressure due to expected increased production and lower costs, with a short - term bearish outlook [6]. - The live pig price is affected by policies and supply - demand, with a short - term fluctuating rebound and a long - term focus on capacity reduction [7]. - The egg price is at a low level, and the market expects terminal consumption improvement to drive a price rebound [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean 11, Soybean 2 09 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations; new domestic soybeans are on the market, supply increases | 3900 - 3930, 3640 - 3670 | 4145 - 4150, 3950 - 4000 | Fluctuation, Fluctuation adjustment | Light - position short - selling, Temporary observation | | | Peanut 11 | Expected production increase and cost reduction | 7500 - 7600 | 8100 - 8162 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, sufficient inventory in the short - term, long - term positive outlook | 8230 - 8300 | 8800 - 9000 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Short - term supply increase | 9600 - 9610 | 10300 - 10343 | Fluctuation adjustment | Temporary observation | | | Palm 01 | Good export demand from the origin, concerns about Indonesian production | 9060 - 9074 | 9900 - 9990 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Reduce long positions | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | Tense Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations, expected reduction in soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter | 2950 - 2980 | 3200 - 3250 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Light - position long - buying | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Potential reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, weak consumption | 2500 - 2523 | 2698 - 2708 | Fluctuation with an upward bias | Hold long positions | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Continuous release of imported corn, stable new - season expectations | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | Weak corn price, relatively loose spot market | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Fluctuation with a downward bias | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Live pig 11 | Feed price rebound, strong expectation of capacity reduction | 13500 - 13750, 14500 - 15000 | | Fluctuation rebound | Hold long positions | | | Egg 10 | Capacity pressure + consumption peak season expectation | 3000 - 3050 | 3300 - 3350 | Fluctuation to find the bottom | Observation | [11] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - delivery arbitrage, most varieties suggest waiting and seeing, while the soybean meal 3 - 5 spread recommends a positive spread operation with a target of 300 - 400. The live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 spreads suggest positive spreads at low prices [12][13]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, the 09 soybean oil - palm oil spread suggests short - biased operations, the 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread suggests long - biased operations, and the 09 soybean oil - meal ratio recommends long - buying operations [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in the feed, livestock, and oil sectors [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oils from different origins and different shipping dates [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the inventory and operation rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oils, and peanuts [18]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: Lists the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, and operation rates of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Pig**: Provides daily and weekly data on live pig prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, etc. [20][22][23]. - **Egg**: Offers daily and weekly data on egg prices, production rates, inventory, and related prices [21][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Pigs and Eggs)**: Includes charts of main contract closing prices, spot prices, and other relevant data of live pigs and eggs [25][28][29][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: Covers charts of Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, and domestic palm oil inventory, trading volume, etc. [37][40][44]. - **Soybean Oil**: Contains charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operation rates, inventory, etc. [47][48]. - **Peanut**: Shows charts of domestic peanut arrival, shipment, processing profits, and inventory [51][52]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Has charts of corn closing prices, spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profits [55][56]. - **Corn Starch**: Includes charts of corn starch closing prices, spot prices, operation rates, inventory, and processing profits [58][59]. - **Rapeseed**: Displays charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profits [60][63][65]. - **Soybean Meal**: Presents charts of US soybean growth rates, soybean and soybean meal inventory [67]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatility and trading volume of options for various varieties [69][70]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situations of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities for various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanut, corn, corn starch, live pig, and egg [72][73][74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Corn**: Domestically, new corn in the Northeast will be listed in September, leading to increased willingness of grain holders to sell and reduced trade - grain inventory. However, the market supply is relatively loose due to the release of rotation grain and continuous auctions of imported corn. Processing enterprises rely on contract grain or inventory, with insufficient procurement and limited demand support. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2]. - **Corn Starch**: With the resumption of operations of previously - shut - down enterprises, the supply pressure has increased. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated bearishly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active contract of corn futures is 2170 yuan/ton, with no change; the monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 75 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 937236 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 102120 lots, a decrease of 8778 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 110775 lots, a decrease of 2706 lots [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 193999 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22794 lots, an increase of 39 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 lots, with no change [2]. - **CS - C Spread**: The spread of the main contract CS - C is 351 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - **CBOT Corn**: The closing price of the active contract is 403 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3.5 cents/bushel; the total open interest is 1549876 contracts, a decrease of 67625 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133174 contracts, a decrease of 25206 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2384.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.66 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton, with no change [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all with no change; the basis of the main contract is 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton [2]. - **Substitute**: The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Production and Sowing Area**: The predicted yields of the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 398.93 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively. The sowing areas of the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively. The US yield prediction has decreased by 2.92 million tons, and the sowing area has decreased by 0.25 million hectares [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 75.1 million tons, 247 million tons, and 340.2 million tons respectively, all showing decreases; the import volume is 6 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production of feed is 2937.7 million tons, an increase of 175.6 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, a decrease of 13.28 tons [2]. - **Processing Profit**: The processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 113 yuan/ton, - 56 yuan/ton, and - 46 yuan/ton respectively, all showing improvements [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Consumption and Inventory**: The consumption of deep - processed corn is 114.06 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons; the inventory days of sample feed corn are 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days [2]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of alcohol and starch enterprises are 42% and 52.3% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.7 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.91%, an increase of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 5.88%, a decrease of 0.02%; the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options are 9.46% and 9.45% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The ProFarmer organization conducted an annual inspection of crops in the Midwest. In Ohio, the corn yield potential is at the highest level in at least 22 years, but drought may limit the yield at the autumn harvest. In South Dakota, the corn yield per unit area is at the highest level since 2020 due to sufficient moisture. The increase in planting area and yield per unit area has led to significant increases in the US corn yield and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season, causing the international corn price to decline [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different futures products show diverse market trends and investment outlooks. Some products are expected to have bullish long - term trends, while others may face short - term adjustments or remain in a range - bound state. Overall, investors need to make decisions based on the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each product [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Product Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The national tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.50%, 1.19%, 0.13%, and 0.03% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is at a low level, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 775.06, a decline of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 772.61. The closing price of the silver main contract was 9,187, a decline of 0.77%, and the night - session closing price was 9061 [11]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy changes are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price will return to the industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The current price still has bullish support due to policy - related supply reductions. In the short term, they may continue to adjust, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The short - term demand has a slight increase, but the supply is still excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low. Trump's arrangement of a tri - party meeting and CFTC data showing a net short position indicate that the crude oil price may be weak. The main contract should be put on hold for now [21][22][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil spot market has sufficient supply, and the market shows mixed signals of improvement. The main contract strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][26]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. Losses have led to reduced supply, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and there are supply - side disturbances. Consider going long after a pullback [29][30]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The market expects relaxed export restrictions to India. In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the medium term, it should be treated bullishly [33][34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose. In the short term, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may oscillate and adjust. Consider range - bound operations [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. In the short term, the processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may oscillate and be sorted out. Consider range - bound participation [36][37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. In the short term, the supply increase may suppress the market, but overseas device maintenance may reduce imports. Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. In the short term, the supply remains at a relatively high level, demand improves, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. Raw material prices oscillate, and there are more device overhauls. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly and stably in the short term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is stable, inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, go short at high levels, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. Supply fluctuates little, and demand is under pressure. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [45][46]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp fell. Supply contraction expectations dominate, but demand improvement is uncertain. The high inventory and macro - sentiment are in a game. [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The trading logic has shifted to policy - related and mining - license events. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and investors should operate with a light position and control risks [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The import window is open, and downstream consumption is average. There is a shortage of copper concentrate, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Consider going long on the main contract [51][52][53]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is tight, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate [54]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the cost support is enhanced. Consider exiting long positions at high levels and then looking for long - position opportunities at support levels [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices have fluctuations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is high. Consider holding long positions with a light position [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. China's import sources may change, and the inventory of related products is at a high level. Consider reducing and holding long positions [61][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton prices show different trends. The US cotton supply - demand report is bullish, but the domestic textile export is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [64][66]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar production and import data show different situations. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the market is expected to produce a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short term. Consider an inverse spread strategy [73][75][76]. - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and consumption is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand tends to balance, but the new - season corn has a strong production expectation. It is recommended to wait and see, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs fell. The spot market has improved, and the demand is slightly better than the arrival volume. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [81][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - For the corn market, the USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bearish, causing international corn prices to decline. In the domestic market, factors such as continuous auctions of imported corn in the Northeast, the release of old - stock corn, good growth of new - season corn, and weak market sentiment lead to a weak trend in the corn market, suggesting a bearish approach [2]. - For the corn starch market, with the resumption of operations of previously - overhauled enterprises, the industry's operating rate has increased, leading to greater supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a clear oversupply situation. The market shows a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2170 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 74 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is 2563 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures holdings of active contracts: 29682 hands for yellow corn, 925944 hands for corn starch; net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 93342 hands for corn starch and - 22833 hands for corn [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 113481 hands for yellow corn, 7450 hands for corn starch [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 321 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 0.75 cents/bushel; total CBOT corn positions are 406.5 (weekly), and non - commercial net long positions are - 25206 (weekly) [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2391.37 yuan/ton, down 2.55 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The flat - hatch price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1927.47 yuan/ton, up 1.42 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 398.93 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 35.12 million tons, down 0.25 million tons [2]. - The predicted yields of corn in Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports are 75.1 million tons, down 14.5 million tons; deep - processing corn inventories are 340.2 million tons, down 24.1 million tons [2]. - Corn inventories at northern ports are 247 million tons, down 22 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.2 million tons, up 1.2 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 thousand tons, down 13.28 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 117 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory days of sample feed corn are 29.61 days, down 0.83 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is - 61 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processing consumption of corn is 114.06 million tons, down 2.4 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 42%, down 1.08%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 55.9%, up 2.07% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.89%, down 3.48%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.89%, down 1.73% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.6%, down 11.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.6%, down 11.64% [2]. Industry News - The Midwest crop inspection activity of the US Professional Farmers (ProFarmer) organization reported crop growth problems on the first day, including soil cracking and lack of surface soil moisture [2]. - In July 2025, China's corn imports were 6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10 million tons (62.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 103 million tons (94.9%) [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows that the estimated sown area of US corn in the 2025/26 season is increased from 95.2 million acres in July to 97.3 million acres, and the yield per acre is increased from 181 bushels/acre to 188.8 bushels/acre [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: The USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bearish, causing international corn prices to decline. In the domestic market, factors such as continuous import corn auctions in the Northeast, the release of old - stock corn, good growth of new - season corn, and upcoming bulk listing of spring corn suppress the bullish sentiment in the spot market. The market trading activity is poor, and feed enterprises' consumption enthusiasm is low. Most deep - processing enterprises replenish stocks based on supply and demand. The spot price is weak, and the corn futures market is in a weak trend, suggesting a bearish approach [2]. - **Corn Starch**: As previously - overhauled enterprises resume production, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has increased, leading to greater supply - side pressure. The downstream demand is still in the off - season with poor order - taking and sales. The supply exceeds demand. The inventory has increased, and the futures market shows a weak trend, also suggesting a bearish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Domestic**: Corn futures' active - contract closing price is 2177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; corn starch futures' active - contract closing price is 2594 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn decreased by 28,029 hands, and for corn starch, it remained unchanged. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn decreased by 2102 hands, and for corn starch, it remained unchanged [2]. - **CBOT**: The closing price of CBOT corn futures is 405.75 cents/bushel, up 7.25 cents. The total position decreased by 67,625 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 25,206 contracts [2]. **Spot Market** - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2393.92 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan. The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The CIF price of imported corn is 1926.05 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory - quoted prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. **Upstream Situation** - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, Brazil 131 million tons, Argentina 53 million tons, China 295 million tons, and Ukraine 30.5 million tons. The predicted sown areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: Corn inventories at southern ports decreased by 14.5 tons to 75.1 tons, and at northern ports decreased by 22 tons to 247 tons. The starch enterprise inventory increased by 1.2 tons to 133.2 tons [2]. - **Trade Volume**: The monthly import volume of corn decreased by 3 tons to 16 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch increased by 4.06 tons to 27.78 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - **Feed**: The monthly feed production increased by 175.6 tons to 2937.7 tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days decreased by 0.83 days to 29.61 days [2]. - **Deep - processing**: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn decreased by 2.4 tons to 114.06 tons. The operating rate of alcohol enterprises decreased by 1.08% to 42%, and that of starch enterprises increased by 2.07% to 55.9% [2]. **Option Market** - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn decreased by 3.48% to 5.89%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 1.73% to 5.89%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options on corn increased by 5.84% and 5.82% respectively to 21.26% and 21.24% [2]. **Industry News** - Field research by AgResource shows that corn and soybeans in northern and eastern Iowa have strong growth potential close to record yields. Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised the 2025 US corn yield per acre by 1 bushel to a record 183 bushels per acre [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows an increase in the estimated 2025/26 US corn planting area, yield per acre, production, and ending inventory, which is overall bearish for the market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - Crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [28]. - For natural rubber, consider going long after a pull - back [31]. - PVC will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. - Urea will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [35]. - PX will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. - PTA may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - Ethylene glycol may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - grade chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - For soda ash, pay attention to controlling positions due to the increase in supply and weak demand [42]. - For glass, go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances before contract roll - over [43]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported ore on consumption and prices [45]. - For pulp, the supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability, and there is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [49]. - For copper, pay attention to buying opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. - Tin and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [54][55]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [57]. - For palm oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them [62]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [65]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, showing interval - based fluctuations [69][70]. - Apple futures are expected to be affected by increased production [71]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [74]. - For eggs, consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [77]. - Corn prices have support at lower levels in the short - term and pressure at higher levels, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - Log prices are expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US retail sales data was stable, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly declined. Policy changes dominate the market in the short - term, and the prices are expected to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - term. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly pulled back. Policy is the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The high demand for hot metal supports prices, but the supply has increased. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and sorted. Policy affects supply, and prices may continue to adjust in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply and prices have changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The supply is excessive, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards and was blocked by the 5 - day moving average. The "Double - Putin" talks and CFTC data indicate that crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market shows signs of improvement, but the supply in Singapore is still excessive. It is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the market sentiment is positive. Wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and supply - side disruptions continue. Consider going long after a pull - back [29][31]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. It will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures closed flat. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it will fluctuate. It is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [33][35]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply has increased, and the cost support is weak. It will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has slightly increased, demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak. It may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has increased, and the port inventory has accumulated. It may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand has recovered. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [40][41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. Pay attention to controlling positions [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. Go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Supply has little change, and inventory has decreased. The use of imported ore may affect consumption and prices, and the price is expected to stabilize [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose slightly. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability. The inventory is high, and the price rebound space is limited [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48][49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper slightly fluctuated. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Pay attention to buying opportunities [51][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, and the market expects the tin ore to resume production in the fourth quarter. The supply is still in short supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The ore price has weakened, the inventory has increased, and the demand is weak. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The USDA report lowered the US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean supply is loose, and the import cost has increased. Consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [56][57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose. The export volume in the first half of August increased. The domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated. Consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China imposed anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed supply may be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing long positions and holding them [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US and global cotton supply - demand reports were favorable. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, and textile exports have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [63][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to observe [67][69]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production increase has been confirmed. The inventory has decreased, and the price of early - maturing apples has declined [71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average live - pig price declined. The supply in the north has increased, and the price is expected to be observed. The supply in the south is stable. The supply will increase in August, and it is advisable to consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price rose slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory has increased. The supply in August is expected to increase, and consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][77]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the price has pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market [78][80]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs has decreased, and the inventory has declined. The trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [81][83].