1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has kept international oil prices oscillating at high levels, pushing up freight rates and boosting international corn market prices. The increase in import prices is also beneficial to the domestic market. In the domestic market, as the temperature rises in the Northeast production area and farmers need to sell grain for cash for spring plowing, the grain - selling progress has accelerated. The procurement by the China National Grains and Oils Reserves Administration will end in April, and recent procurement has been concluded at a discounted price. The proportion of substitutes such as wheat has increased, and feed and deep - processing enterprises are cautious in purchasing. As a result, the spot price has shown a slight decline. There are also rumors that a targeted paddy auction may be launched in April or late April, which, if implemented, will impact corn's feed demand to some extent. Recently, corn futures prices have oscillated and declined at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2] Corn Starch - Recently, the supply of raw - material corn has increased compared to the previous period, and the enthusiasm of corn starch enterprises to start production has risen. The industry's operating rate has increased month - on - month, and the pressure on the supply side has increased. The industry's inventory pressure has also slightly rebounded. However, supported by high raw - material corn prices, the starch spot market performs well. After a previous rise, the starch market has declined from a high level recently [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2351 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2745 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 29 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7) is 4 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1023011 lots, down 29630 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 235927 lots, down 9716 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 84497 lots, up 30089 lots; for corn starch, it is - 13790 lots, up 814 lots. The registered warehouse receipt volume for yellow corn is 0 lots, down 58377 lots; for corn starch, it is 0 lots, down 4510 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 372 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] Outer - market (CBOT) - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 455.25 cents/bushel, down 6.5 cents. CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1796424 contracts, up 22925 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn (weekly) is 375360 contracts, up 63018 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2448.8 yuan/ton, down 1.87 yuan. The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it is 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang, it is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF price of imported corn is 2124.62 yuan/ton, down 15.24 yuan. The international freight of imported corn is 62 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 163 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The basis of the corn main contract is 97.8 yuan/ton, down 6.87 yuan. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 492 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2585.5 yuan/ton, down 1.11 yuan. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 819 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 16 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn output in the US is 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; the sown area is 36.93 million hectares, unchanged. In Brazil, the predicted annual output is 131 million tons, unchanged; the sown area is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged. In Argentina, the predicted annual output is 53 million tons, unchanged; the sown area is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged. In China, the predicted annual output is 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; the sown area is 44.96 million hectares, unchanged. In Ukraine, the predicted annual output is 29 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 38.1 tons, down 6.6 tons; in northern ports, it is 252 tons, up 5 tons. Deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 406.3 tons, up 29.4 tons. Starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly) is 121.7 tons, up 1.4 tons. The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, up 24 tons. The monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, down 0.2 tons. The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 tons, up 30.7 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 31.57 days, up 1.3 days. The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 138.97 tons, up 4.83 tons. The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 61.89%, up 3.13 percentage points. The starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 60.98%, up 2.18 percentage points. The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 13 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; in Hebei, it is 79 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Jilin, it is 34 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.69%, down 0.15 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.08%, up 0.3 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.99%, up 0.73 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.99%, up 0.73 percentage points [2] Industry News - AgRural lowered its forecast for Brazil's total corn output in the 2025/26 season by 500,000 tons, from 1.362 billion tons forecast in February to 1.357 billion tons. As of the week ending March 26, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,789,524 tons, compared with 1,702,651 tons last week and 1,718,304 tons in the same period last year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oilseeds**: The release of the US biodiesel policy and the firmness of Brazilian premiums support the cost of soybean imports in China. However, the increase in reserve releases has cooled the bullish sentiment for soybeans. For example, the 05 contract of soybeans is expected to be weak in the short - term, while the 09 contract of soybeans and soybean meal can be considered for long - position layout [3][5][12]. - **Oils**: The continuous tension in the Middle East situation, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and the restart of Indonesia's B50 policy have driven up the prices of oils. Palm oil can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil may continue to fluctuate widely [3][4]. - **Feed**: The supply of feed grains such as corn and corn starch is under pressure in the short - term, but the low channel inventory limits the decline space. The price of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate and bottom out, waiting for a stable upward opportunity [6][7]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The short - term supply - demand pattern of pigs is difficult to change fundamentally, and the far - month futures contracts of pigs may have a larger premium. The supply pressure of eggs has been alleviated to some extent, and the far - month peak - season contracts have a large premium over the current off - season spot [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: The 05 contract of soybeans is expected to be weak due to increased reserve releases. The 09 contract of soybeans and soybean meal can be considered for long - position layout due to cost - end support [12]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is expected to be bullish, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil may fluctuate widely. The 05 contract of palm oil can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude, and the 09 contract of soybean oil can be considered for long - position after stabilization [12]. - **Protein**: The 09 contract of soybean meal is expected to be stable, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate and adjust [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch may adjust in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The 05 contract of pigs and eggs may continue to search for the bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 5 - 9 spread of corn, it is recommended to short at high prices, and for the 5 - 7 spread of pigs, it is recommended to hold the reverse arbitrage [13][14]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For most inter - commodity spreads, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 soybean oil - palm oil, 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and 05 rapeseed oil - palm oil spreads, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 soybean oil - meal ratio and 05 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to take a bullish approach [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, which can be used as a reference for spot - futures operations [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, which helps to understand the cost - end situation of oils and oilseeds [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as the operating rates of related processing plants [19][20]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, which is helpful for analyzing the cost of feed grains [20]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn and corn starch, which can reflect the supply - demand situation of the feed market [21]. 3.2.3 Livestock and Poultry - **Daily Data**: It shows the spot prices and price changes of pigs and eggs in different regions, which can reflect the short - term market situation [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: It provides the key data of pigs and eggs, such as the price, cost, profit, slaughter volume, and inventory of pigs, as well as the supply, demand, and profit data of eggs [23][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides a series of charts to track the fundamentals of the livestock and poultry, oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, including the price, inventory, production, and consumption data of various varieties, which helps to visually understand the market situation [25][26][28]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the option - related data of feed, livestock, and oils, such as the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, historical volatility, option trading volume, and open interest, which can be used as a reference for option trading [96][98][100]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the warehouse receipt data of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, which can reflect the supply - demand situation in the physical market [106][108][110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main 05 contract of soybean oil was running strongly this week, closing at 8,688 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 60 yuan/ton. After the final determination of the new renewable fuel standard, the market more reflected the fulfillment of bullish expectations and traded the bearish expectation of next week's area report. The tense situation in the Middle East continued, and crude oil continued to rise, which was beneficial to oils and fats. The volume of Brazilian soybean customs clearance and inspection increased recently, alleviating the near - term supply concerns. The bullish drivers for soybean oil continued, and the far - month contracts would still be supported by the cost side. It was advisable to consider laying out long positions for the 09 contract. The support level of the 09 contract was 8,460 - 8,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level was 8,800 - 8,810 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures fluctuated widely at a high level this week. The main 2605 contract settled up 0.37% at 9,692. Geopolitical uncertainties remained, and oil prices were running strongly, so the prices of oils and fats still had support. Fundamentally, Indonesia was considering restarting the B50 plan, which drove the market sentiment high. High - frequency data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil in March increased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory in the main producing areas might continue to decline. In China, the demand side was still sluggish, and with the concentrated arrival of purchased ships, the domestic inventory pressure was still high. It was advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before considering adding long positions. The resistance level of the main contract was in the range of 10,200 - 10,220, and the support level was in the range of 9,400 - 9,410 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week. Geopolitical conflicts significantly pushed up diesel prices, the POGO spread continued to narrow, and Indonesia's consideration of restarting the B50 plan drove the market's bullish sentiment high. Fundamentally, the February MPOB report was overall bearish, but with the increase of export taxes in Indonesia in March, the export in March increased significantly month - on - month, and the main producing areas might continue to destock. The Indonesian president's speech temporarily increased the market's concerns about future exports. However, it should be noted that the recent energy price fluctuations had increased, and the subsequent evolution of the Middle East situation still had great uncertainties. It was necessary to be vigilant against the decline risk caused by the high - level correction of oil prices. It was advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before adding long positions. The resistance level of the main contract was in the range of 10,200 - 10,220, and the support level was in the range of 9,400 - 9,410 [4]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: This week, CBOT soybeans fluctuated and adjusted, and the prices of DCE soybean No. 2 and soybean meal fell significantly. After the final determination of the new renewable fuel standard, the market more reflected the fulfillment of bullish expectations and traded the bearish expectation of next week's area report. It was expected that the downward adjustment space of CBOT soybeans was not large, and the subsequent trend was still bullish. The downside of South American basis was limited, and China's soybean import cost continued to rise, restricting the further decline of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal prices. The far - month cost side support continued. It was advisable to consider laying out long positions for the 09 contract after the correction, and it was not recommended to go long on the near - month contracts for the time being. The support level of the main 09 contract of soybean meal was 2,960 - 2,980 yuan/ton, and the resistance level was 3,080 - 3,100 yuan/ton. The support level of the main 05 contract of soybean No. 2 was 3,650 - 3,680, and the resistance level was 3,800 - 3,830 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal futures fell continuously this week. The settlement price of the main 2605 contract decreased by 4.46% week - on - week to 2,315. Geopolitical uncertainties remained, oil prices were running strongly, and Canadian rapeseed remained at a high level. After the improvement of China - Canada relations, domestic ship purchases increased continuously, and there was a large expected increase in supply. With the warming of the weather, the demand for aquaculture had a certain increase. After the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market continued to decline to a low level, the subsequent import cost might have a certain support. The short - term rapeseed meal price might continue the trend of fluctuating and bottom - hunting. It was advisable to wait and see for the time being and wait for the opportunity to go long after the stabilization. The support level of the RM contract was 2,280 - 2,300, and the resistance level was 2,500 - 2,510 [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The main futures price of soybean No. 1 fell this week. Recently, the local reserve of domestic soybeans was frequently put on the market, and some local reserves failed to be sold at auction, changing the previous situation of premium transactions. The auction volume on the 26th increased to 100,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 62.4%, but the premium of 0 - 30 yuan was significantly lower than before. This reflected that in the context of the high valuation of domestic soybeans, the market's expectation for the future price was not very optimistic. At present, domestic soybean sources were mainly concentrated in the middle and upper reaches. The middle and upper reaches once held back sales at high prices, which led to a significant increase in domestic soybean prices. The downstream had an obvious resistance to high - priced soybeans, and there was an obvious game in the industrial chain. With the increase in temperature, the storage difficulty of domestic soybeans increased, and the reserve supply increased. The price - holding mentality of the middle and upper reaches slowed down, the trading volume of domestic soybeans gradually increased, and the price fluctuated downward. At present, the valuation of soybean No. 1 was high and the bullish drivers were weakening. It was expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term. It was advisable to consider lightly shorting the main 05 contract of soybean No. 1. The resistance level of the 05 contract was 4,740 - 4,760 yuan/ton, and the support level was 4,400 - 4,450 yuan/ton [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. The market had great differences between bulls and bears, and the short - term futures prices might fluctuate repeatedly. In the external market, the ending inventory of US corn was at a high level, which suppressed the price. However, the supply - demand situation of the new season continued to improve. Coupled with the recent upward shift of the crude oil price center, the cost - side support was strengthened, and the net long positions of CFTC increased. It was judged that the US corn futures prices would generally continue to move up. In the domestic corn market, the emotional disturbance continued, and the futures prices were expected to fluctuate repeatedly. In terms of supply - demand, the concentrated selling pressure of rural farmers and the increase in wheat supply, and the news of rice auctions recently, had a certain suppression on the price. However, the low channel inventory and the tight supply of high - quality grain sources limited the decline space of the futures prices. In the corn starch market, the demand returned to a moderate state, the spot price increase slowed down, and the geopolitical sentiment support still existed. The futures prices were expected to fluctuate repeatedly. It was advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips. The support range of the 2605 contract of corn was 2,280 - 2,300, and the resistance range was 2,480 - 2,500. The support range of the 05 contract of corn starch was 2,670 - 2,680, and the resistance range was 2,880 - 2,900. It was advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money put options for option operations [6]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs was generally stable with a slight upward trend over the weekend, and the prices in some low - price areas stopped falling, but the decline of the prices of culled sows and piglets widened. The national average price of standard hogs was 9.50 yuan/kg, up about 0.02 yuan/kg compared with last Friday. In the middle of the month, relevant departments of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized a symposium for hog - breeding enterprises to analyze and judge the price situation and arrange market regulation work. It was expected that the purchase and storage efforts would increase. The slaughter volume rebounded significantly week - on - week last week, but slaughtering enterprises still suffered losses. At present, the number of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9%, and it was currently 101.6% of the normal inventory, still higher than the green range. In March, the price of piglets fell against the season, the loss of self - breeding and self - raising expanded, the slaughter weight continued to rebound, and farmers were forced to hold back sales. At present, the far - month contracts of hog futures showed a premium over the near - end spot and near - month contracts. The near - end spot pressure was relatively large, and the month - to - month relationship remained weak in the near term and strong in the far term. In the medium term, waiting for further confirmation of capacity reduction, the far - month premium might continue to widen. Cautious investors could hold the arbitrage strategy of shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts. The 2605 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 10,200 as support and 10,300 - 10,600 as resistance. Aggressive investors could wait for the release of spot pressure in the medium term and lightly go long on the 2607 contract near 11,000 points. For options, it was advisable to hold a covered call strategy combination, that is, hold long futures positions + sell deep out - of - the - money call options [7][8]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs continued to rebound over the weekend, terminal consumption improved, farmers' enthusiasm for culling hens decreased, and the age of culled hens rebounded. The egg futures prices rose first and then fell recently. The far - month contracts in the industry increased their positions and declined to repair the excessive discount to the spot. The national average spot price was about 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin compared with last Friday. At present, the average cash cost of eggs in the industry followed the prices of corn and soybean meal and rebounded to 2.95 - 3.05 yuan/jin, and the breeding once again showed seasonal losses. In terms of production capacity, after farmers continued to suffer deep losses since the fourth quarter, the culling of hens also increased. At the same time, the number of newly - opened laying hens from February to March was relatively small, which led to a certain relief of the supply pressure. The supply - demand pressure might continue to improve. In terms of futures prices, the far - month peak - season contracts of eggs maintained a large premium over the current off - season spot. Cautious investors were advised to wait and see. Aggressive investors could go long on the 05 contract below 3,400 points in the short term. It was necessary to be cautious about shorting near - month contracts in the historical low - price range. The support level of the 2605 contract was 3,400 - 3,450 points, and the resistance level was 3,500 - 3,550 points [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | Reference Star | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 05 | The increase in reserve supply and the weakening of the price - holding mentality in the middle and upper reaches led to a continuous decline in the price of soybean No. 1. | 4,400 - 4,450 | 4,740 - 4,760 | Decline | Cautiously hold short positions | ☆ | | | Soybean No. 2 05 | The concerns about the area report were bearish after the good news of biodiesel was realized. Recently, the bullish sentiment was relatively cautious. | 3,650 - 3,680 | 3,800 - 3,830 | Fluctuation and adjustment | Wait and see for the time being | - | | | Soybean Oil 09 | Geopolitical uncertainties remained, and the oil prices were volatile at a high level. The tense situation in the Middle East continued, the customs clearance and inspection volume of Brazilian soybeans increased, and the near - term supply concerns were alleviated. The good news of biodiesel was realized. | 8,360 - 8,400 | 8,800 - 8,900 | Fluctuation and rise | Go long after stabilization | ☆ | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 05 | The prices of oils and fats still had support, and the expectation of loose domestic supply was gradually strengthening. | 9,450 - 9,460 | 10,000 - 10,100 | Wide - range fluctuation | Wait for stabilization and then go long | ☆ | | | Palm 05 | Geopolitical and biodiesel expectations were positive, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in March improved significantly. | 9,400 - 9,410 | 10,000 - 10,100 | Fluctuation and upward | Cautiously hold long positions | ☆ | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | The tense situation in the Middle East continued, US soybeans fluctuated widely, the Brazilian basis was firm, and the cost - side support of China's soybean imports was expected to continue. The consumption of soybean meal still had resilience. | 2,960 - 2,980 | 3,080 - 3,100 | Fluctuation | Go long on far - month contracts after correction | ☆ | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | There was a large expected increase in near - term supply. | 2,280 - 2,300 | 2,500 - 2,510 | Fluctuation and bottom - hunting | Wait and see for the time being | - | | Energy and By - products | Corn 05 | The short - term pressure on the price came from the selling pressure of rural farmers, the increase in wheat supply, and the expectation of rice auctions. However, the low channel inventory and the tight supply of high - quality grain sources provided medium - term support. The futures prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. | 2,280 - 2,300 | 2,480 - 2,500 | Range fluctuation | Go long on dips | ☆ | | | Starch 05 | The low spot inventory provided slight support to the market, the cost side fluctuated within a range, and it followed the range fluctuation in the short term. | 2,670 - 2,680 | 2,880 - 2,900 | Range fluctuation | Go long on dips | ☆ | | Livestock | Hogs 05 | The feed price stopped falling and rebounded, and there were policies to reduce production capacity. | 9,500 - 9,800 | 10,000 - 10,300 | Low - level fluctuation | Go long on dips | - | | | Eggs 05 | The production capacity pressure was relieved, and consumption improved marginally. | 3,400 - 3,450 | 3,550 - 3,600 | Fluctuation and bottom - hunting | Go long on dips | - | [11] 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4,580 | 4,580 | 27 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3,950 | 3,950 | 185 | 11 | | | Peanut | 7,400 | 7,400 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 9,020 | 9,020 | 202 | - 2 | | | Rapeseed Oil | 10,350 | 0 | 47

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - There is no clear core view presented in the given content. The document mainly provides a table of futures and spot prices, along with related data such as basis rates and price differences for various commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - **Copper**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a 1.00% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6556, and the主力 contract price is 95380 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The主力基差率 is -0.38%, with a 0.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 23760, and the主力 contract price is 23795 [3]. - **Zinc**: The主力基差率 is -0.17%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 22920, and the主力 contract price is 22950 [3]. - **Lead**: The主力基差率 is -1.09%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16325, and the主力 contract price is 16485 [3]. - **Tin**: The主力基差率 is 1.52%, with a 2.13% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 357600, and the主力 contract price is 352250 [3]. - **Nickel**: The主力基差率 is 1.85%, with a 0.76% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 137800, and the主力 contract price is 135270 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The主力基差率 is 5.93%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9200, and the主力 contract price is 8530 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The主力基差率 is -0.64%, with a 0.60% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 157200, and the主力 contract price is 157920 [3]. - **Gold**: The主力基差率 is 0.05%, with a -0.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1014.44, and the主力 contract price is 1011.04 [3]. - **Silver**: The主力基差率 is 0.06%, with a -0.42% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 18121, and the主力 contract price is 18174 [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The主力基差率 is 2.81%, with a 0.42% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3220, and the主力 contract price is 3132 [3]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The主力基差率 is -1.00%, with a -0.88% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3280, and the主力 contract price is 3313 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The主力基差率 is 4.97%, with a 2.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 846.6, and the主力 contract price is 806.5 [3]. - **Coke**: The主力基差率 is -8%, with a 0.56% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1625, and the主力 contract price is 1776 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The主力基差率 is 0.52%, with a 0.68% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1247.5, and the主力 contract price is 1241 [3]. - **Steam Coal**: The主力基差率 is -5.7%, with a 0.75% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 755, and the主力 contract price is 801.4 [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The主力基差率 is -7.03%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5660, and the主力 contract price is 6166 [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The主力基差率 is -5.2%, with a -0.18% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6150, and the主力 contract price is 6492 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The主力基差率 is -0.97%, with a -1.39% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 14350, and the主力 contract price is 14490 [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The主力基差率 is 8.80%, with a -1.30% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3190, and the主力 contract price is 2932 [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The主力基差率 is 9.88%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2570, and the主力 contract price is 2371 [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a -1.22% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8820, and the主力 contract price is 8480 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The主力基差率 is 5.39%, with a -0.90% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10230, and the主力 contract price is 9707 [3]. - **Peanut**: The主力基差率 is 10.00%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8136 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a -1.20% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9510, and the主力 contract price is 9510 [3]. - **Corn**: The主力基差率 is 1.01%, with a 0.09% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2400, and the主力 contract price is 2376 [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The主力基差率 is 4.96%, with a 0.34% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2900, and the主力 contract price is 2763 [3]. - **Apple**: The主力基差率 is not provided, with a 0.80% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8500, and the主力 contract price is 9978 [3]. - **Egg**: The主力基差率 is -6.136%, with a -0.25% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3200, and the主力 contract price is 3410 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The主力基差率 is -3.3%, with a -0.37% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9650, and the主力 contract price is 12595 [3]. - **Cotton**: The主力基差率 is 8.94%, with a -1.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16711, and the主力 contract price is 15340 [3]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: The主力基差率 is 0.94%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5480, and the主力 contract price is 5429 [3]. - **Methanol**: The主力基差率 is 0.92%, with a -2.14% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3118, and the主力 contract price is 2883 [3]. - **Ethanol**: The主力基差率 is -1.21%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4975, and the主力 contract price is 5036 [3]. - **PTA**: The主力基差率 is -1.40%, with a -0.44% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6500, and the主力 contract price is 6592 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The主力基差率 is 3.62%, with a 3.23% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8975 [3]. - **Styrene**: The主力基差率 is -1.04%, with a -3.2% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10000, and the主力 contract price is 10105 [3]. - **Short Fiber**: The主力基差率 is -0.12%, with a -3.10% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8100, and the主力 contract price is 8008 [3]. - **Plastic**: The主力基差率 is -0.40%, with a -3.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8680, and the主力 contract price is 8715 [3]. - **PVC**: The主力基差率 is -1.46%, with a -2.77% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5620, and the主力 contract price is 5703 [3]. - **Rubber**: The主力基差率 is -0.79%, with a -0.02% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16300, and the主力 contract price is 16430 [3]. - **20 -号胶**: The主力基差率 is 1.93%, with a -1.07% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 13827, and the主力 contract price is 13565 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The主力基差率 is -1.61%, with a 0.01% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1224, and the主力 contract price is 1244 [3]. - **Urea**: The主力基差率 is -0.16%, with a 0.05% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1860, and the主力 contract price is 1863 [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The主力基差率 is 2.37%, with a -2.69% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8300, and the主力 contract price is 8108 [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The主力基差率 is 0.26%, with a 0.26% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5238, and the主力 contract price is 5224 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The主力基差率 is -6.11%, with a -1.41% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 675.4, and the主力 contract price is 723.9 [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 9.44%, with a -2.38% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4758, and the主力 contract price is 4348 [3]. - **Asphalt**: The主力基差率 is -2.94%, with a -2.24% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4280, and the主力 contract price is 4410 [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 15.83%, with a -10.34% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5976, and the主力 contract price is 5159 [3]. - **LPG**: The主力基差率 is 9.89%, with a 6.06% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7198, and the主力 contract price is 6550 [3]. Stock Index - **CSI 300**: The主力基差率 is 1.97%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4537.5, and the主力 contract price is 4505.6 [3]. - **SSE 50**: The主力基差率 is 1.04%, with a 0.32% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2859.5, and the主力 contract price is 2848 [3]. - **CSI 500**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a 0.62% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7767.7, and the主力 contract price is 7685.6 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation, and there are uncertainties in various sectors, with different trends and investment suggestions for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw all - round gains in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum is weak. The yield is at a relatively low level, and there is pressure in the later market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The asset valuation is low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The global economic situation is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inflation expectations are rising. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper contract declined. The supply shortage logic is still strong, but the macro - environment suppresses prices. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak shock with a bottom [56]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum contract rose, and the alumina contract declined. The alumina supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the electrolytic aluminum price may be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [58]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc contract rose. The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, but the consumption is affected by the real - estate sector. The zinc price may be under pressure [61]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead contract declined. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price may be weakly volatile [63]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin contract declined. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The tin price has support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [65]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel contract declined. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [66]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC net long position increased, but the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market changed. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The current main contradiction is cost - driven, and the short - term price may maintain a strong shock [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber contract rose. The market is in a game between multiple and short factors, and the short - term is in a wide - range shock [30]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract declined. The market is in a game between cost support and high inventory. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is restricted [32]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract rose. The current contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is weakly volatile, and the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are repaired, and the price may be in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to operate carefully [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The supply increases, and the downstream reduces production. The short - term is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to operate carefully [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply and demand are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price needs to be treated carefully [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increases, and the demand weakens. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and device dynamics [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals change little, and it is recommended to participate carefully [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is general, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate [45]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract declined. The production line is shrinking, the inventory removal slows down, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract declined. The supply decreases slightly, the inventory does not decrease significantly, and the price is affected by exports [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, the paper - pulp contract declined. The inventory accumulates, and the demand is weak, restricting the rebound height [52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil contracts rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rebounded. The export data is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider closing long positions [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil contracts changed. The market is waiting for relevant announcements and paying attention to the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the domestic cotton contract oscillated. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The medium - long - term price has support, but the short - term is affected by the quota issuance [72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the domestic sugar contract oscillated. The international situation is favorable, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term price has a bottom support [74]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract oscillated. With the Qingming Festival approaching, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong [76]. - **Pork**: The previous trading day, the pork contract declined. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The supply is improving, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn contract declined, and the corn - starch contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand recovers slightly [80]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The inventory decreases, the downstream demand improves, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the international oil price is high due to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which boosts the international corn market price. In the domestic market, the willingness of grain holders to sell is increasing as the purchase price rises, but the price increase is limited by factors such as mildew risk, cautious purchases by drying towers, and the enhanced substitution effect of wheat. The corn futures price of the main 2605 contract closed down 0.08% and maintained an adjustment trend, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply pressure has increased as the corn starch enterprise's operating rate has risen due to the increased supply of raw material corn. The industry inventory pressure has also slightly increased. However, supported by the good price of raw material corn, the starch spot market performs well, and the starch market has maintained a relatively strong shock recently [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2376 yuan/ton, and the corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2765 yuan/ton. The corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 6 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7) is - 29 yuan/ton. The futures positions of the active contracts of yellow corn and corn starch are 1198270 hands and 261034 hands respectively, with changes of - 34473 hands and - 4239 hands. The net buying volume of the top 20 positions in corn and corn starch is - 198088 hands and - 21878 hands respectively, with a change of - 706 hands for corn [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn and corn starch are 65858 hands and 4675 hands respectively, with changes of - 1787 hands and - 50 hands. The CS - C spread of the main contract is - 11 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of CBOT corn futures (active contract) is 5.25 cents/bushel, the total position of CBOT corn is 1773499 contracts, an increase of 50191 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 312342 contracts, with a position quantity of 54561 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2452.55 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.1 yuan/ton. The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2900 yuan/ton, 3060 yuan/ton, and 3040 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. - The fob price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2400 yuan/ton, with no change. The CIF price of imported corn is 2150.25 yuan/ton, with a change of 3.42 yuan/ton. The international freight of imported corn is 0 US dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the corn starch main contract is 135, a decrease of 2; the basis of the corn main contract is - 0.1. The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 496 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton [2]. - The average spot price of wheat is 2590.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 835 yuan/ton, an increase of 98 yuan/ton. The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 432.34 million hectares, etc., and the predicted yields are 36.93 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.96 million tons, and 29 million tons respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 44.7 tons, a decrease of 24.9 tons; the corn inventory in northern ports is 247 tons, an increase of 28 tons. The deep - processing corn inventory is 376.9 tons, an increase of 39.2 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons. The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days are 30.27 days, an increase of 0.21 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 134.14 tons, an increase of 7.28 tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 58.76%, an increase of 3.15%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 60.98%, an increase of 2.18% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.13%, an increase of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.75%, an increase of 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 11.92%, a decrease of 4.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 11.92%, a decrease of 4.99% [2]. Industry News - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port is 23.4 tons, a decrease of 5.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory is 14.7 tons, a decrease of 1.50 tons from last week; the imported sorghum is 49.2 tons, an increase of 9.70 tons from last week; the imported barley is 77.7 tons, an increase of 7.20 tons from last week [2]. - The ongoing US - Iran conflict affects the international oil price, which boosts the international corn market price and is also beneficial to the domestic market [2]. Key Points to Focus On - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating and inventory conditions of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market volatility of various assets is expected to increase due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation. Different investment strategies are recommended for different assets, such as being cautious for bonds, temporarily staying on the sidelines for stocks and precious metals, and considering short - selling opportunities for some commodities [5][9][11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bonds - **Performance**: The 30 - year and 2 - year Treasury futures rose 0.01% and 0.02% respectively, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts were flat. As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity was 3.95 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [5]. - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the monetary policy is expected to be loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level, and there is still some pressure in the future market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures rose 1.61%, 0.81%, 2.17%, and 1.73% respectively. As of the end of February, the total scale of public funds reached 38.61 trillion yuan [7]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - **Performance**: The gold and silver futures rose 3.49% and 6.01% respectively. The European Central Bank is evaluating the impact of the Iranian war [11]. - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11][12]. 4. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and hot - rolled coil were 2980 yuan/ton, 3110 - 3230 yuan/ton, and 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton respectively [13][14]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The real estate industry is in a downward trend, but the market is entering the peak demand season. The supply pressure is reduced, and the inventory pressure is small. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - **Performance**: The iron ore futures fell significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were 785 yuan/ton and 670 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The iron ore demand may increase, but the inventory is at a high level. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: The coking coal and coke futures fell significantly [18]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand for coke is expected to expand. The price may continue to be strong, and investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities [18][19]. 7. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell 1.04% and 0.36% respectively. The spot prices also declined [20]. - **Outlook**: The cost is at a low level, and the supply is loose. The overall surplus pressure continues. After the short - term price rises, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [20][21]. 8. Crude Oil - **Performance**: The INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The CFTC data showed that speculators increased their net long positions. The number of oil and gas rigs decreased [22]. - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions indicates that the market is bullish on the future. However, the possible cease - fire between the US and Iran may lead to oil price fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23][24]. 9. Polyolefins - **Performance**: The PP and LLDPE prices in the market fell, and the market sentiment was cautious [24]. - **Outlook**: Due to the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the supply decreased. The demand was weak. The price is expected to fall, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [24][25]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: The synthetic rubber futures rose 4.27%. The price of butadiene decreased, and the inventory began to decline [26][27]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to device maintenance, oil price trends, and tire export orders [26][27][28]. 11. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: The natural rubber futures rose. The price of Thai glue was high, and the inventory continued to increase [29]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a state of long - short game, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [29][30]. 12. PVC - **Performance**: The PVC futures fell 4.58%. The spot price decreased, and the inventory increased [31]. - **Outlook**: The cost support is strong, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory changes and demand recovery [31][32][33]. 13. Urea - **Performance**: The urea futures fell 0.32%. The spot price was stable [34]. - **Outlook**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to export policies and demand connection [34][35]. 14. PX - **Performance**: The PX futures fell 3.67%. The profit and spread decreased [36]. - **Outlook**: The short - term processing fee has room for repair. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [36][37]. 15. PTA - **Performance**: The PTA futures fell 3.09%. The processing fee was around 300 yuan/ton [38]. - **Outlook**: The supply decreased, and the demand was weak. The market is in a long - short game, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [38]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: The ethylene glycol futures fell 4.96%. The inventory increased [39]. - **Outlook**: The inventory may decrease, but the cost is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to negotiation progress and spring inspection [39]. 17. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: The short - fiber futures fell 2.94%. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [40]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption [40]. 18. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: The bottle - chip futures fell 2.43%. The processing fee was around 1200 yuan/ton [41]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little. The processing fee is recovering, but the raw material price is uncertain. It is recommended to operate cautiously [41]. 19. Soda Ash - **Performance**: The soda ash futures rose 0.32%. The production increased, and the inventory decreased [42][43]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the price is expected to remain high and consolidate [43]. 20. Glass - **Performance**: The glass futures fell 0.94%. The production line decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly [46]. - **Outlook**: The cost support exists, and the market sentiment may fluctuate [46]. 21. Caustic Soda - **Performance**: The caustic soda futures fell 3.06%. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [47]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise due to export and cost factors. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and inventory changes [47][48]. 22. Pulp - **Performance**: The pulp futures rose 0.04%. The port inventory decreased, and the production increased [49]. - **Outlook**: The inventory decline supports the price, and the market sentiment is expected to stabilize [49]. 23. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures rose 4.34%. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped [50][51]. - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, and the demand is improving. The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [51]. 24. Copper - **Performance**: The copper futures rose 1.11%. The inflation expectations and geopolitical situation suppress the price, but the supply is tight, and the demand has a bottom [52]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with a bottom [52][53]. 25. Aluminum - **Performance**: The aluminum futures fell 0.13%, and the alumina futures fell 0.98%. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the inventory increases [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with support [55][56]. 26. Zinc - **Performance**: The zinc futures rose 0.35%. The supply increases, and the demand in the real estate sector is weak [57]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be under pressure [57][58]. 27. Lead - **Performance**: The lead futures fell 0.09%. The supply of primary lead increases, and the demand is weak [59][60]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [60][61]. 28. Tin - **Performance**: The tin futures rose 0.69%. The supply is tight, and the demand in the emerging fields is strong [62]. - **Outlook**: The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [62]. 29. Nickel - **Performance**: The nickel futures rose 1.33%. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is weak [63][64]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply is in surplus, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [63][64]. 30. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: The soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the demand for biodiesel is expected to increase [65]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see [65][66]. 31. Palm Oil - **Performance**: The palm oil price fell. The export increased, and the inventory is at a high level [67][68]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to consider closing long positions [67][68][69]. 32. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: The rapeseed futures rose. The import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal increased, and the inventory decreased [70]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see [70][71]. 33. Cotton - **Performance**: The cotton futures fluctuated. The import increased, and the global cotton production is expected to decrease [72][73]. - **Outlook**: The long - term price has support, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved by the quota issuance [73][74]. 34. Sugar - **Performance**: The domestic sugar futures fluctuated, and the international sugar futures fell. The domestic import increased, and the production is expected to increase [75][76]. - **Outlook**: The international situation is favorable for the price, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The long - term price has a bottom [76][77]. 35. Apple - **Performance**: The apple futures fluctuated. The inventory decreased, and the production is expected to decrease [78][79]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be stable and strong during the Qingming Festival, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory and weather [78][79]. 36. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The live - pig futures fell 0.55%. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak [80]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [80]. 37. Eggs - **Performance**: The egg futures fell 0.06%. The production cost increased, and the inventory is at a high level [81][82]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to wait and see [82]. 38. Corn and Starch - **Performance**: The corn and starch futures fell. The inventory of North Port is low, and the demand is slightly improved [83][84]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. The starch may be slightly stronger than corn. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - term put options [84][85]. 39. Logs - **Performance**: The log futures fell 0.67%. The inventory decreased, and the demand improved [86][87]. - **Outlook**: The supply may shrink due to price and cost factors. The market is affected by the geopolitical situation [87][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: On Tuesday, the main 05 contract of soybean oil closed at 8594 (daily change -146 or -1.67%). International oil prices dropped significantly, driving down the prices of oils and fats and oilseeds. The relaxation of customs clearance and inspection for Brazilian soybeans has alleviated the near - term supply concerns. The market still has high expectations for biodiesel. Consider laying out long positions in the 09 contract. The support level for the main 09 contract is 8360 - 8400 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On Tuesday, rapeseed oil futures declined significantly. The main 2605 contract settled down 1.38% at 9813. The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is uncertain, and the oil price first dived and then showed signs of recovery. Before the arrival of Canadian rapeseed, the domestic inventory remains at a low level. After the continuous rise of Canadian rapeseed, the import cost has strong support. The geopolitical situation keeps the oil price oscillating at a high level, which is favorable for the price of oils and fats. Pay attention to the implementation of the US biodiesel policy in March. Rapeseed oil may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Consider waiting for the market to stabilize before going long. The resistance range for the 05 contract is 10000 - 10100, and the support range is 9450 - 9460 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: On Tuesday, palm oil futures tumbled. The main 2605 contract settled down 3.00% at 9644. The overall situation between the US and Iran has eased, and the oil price dived. Geopolitical conflicts have significantly pushed up diesel prices, and the POGO spread has continued to narrow. Indonesia is considering restarting the B50 program, driving up the market's bullish sentiment. The February MPOB report was generally bearish, but high - frequency data showed a significant month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports in March, and the inventory in the main producing areas may continue to decline. In China, the demand is still weak, and with the concentrated arrival of purchased ships, the port inventory pressure is still high. There are still positive factors in exports and biodiesel. Under the high volatility of oil prices, the palm oil market also fluctuates greatly. Consider waiting for the market to stabilize before replenishing long positions. The resistance range for the main contract is 10200 - 10220, and the support range is 9400 - 9410 [4]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, the CBOT soybean 05 contract declined, temporarily closing at around 1159 cents per bushel in the afternoon. The main 05 contract of soybean meal closed at 2961 (daily change -46 or -1.53%), and the main 05 contract of soybean No. 2 closed at 3743 (daily change -70 or -1.84%). The repeated situation in the Middle East and the significant decline in international oil prices have driven down the prices of oils and fats and oilseeds. The relaxation of customs clearance and inspection for Brazilian soybeans has alleviated the near - term supply concerns, and the decline of the near - term contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 has widened. The cost of soybean imports remains firm, and the long - term bullish view on soybean No. 2 and soybean meal remains unchanged. Consider laying out long positions in the 09 contract, and do not recommend going long on the near - term contracts for now. The support level for the main 05 contract of soybean meal is 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 3030 - 3050 yuan/ton. The support level for the main 05 contract of soybean No. 2 is 3680 - 3700, and the resistance level is 3800 - 3830 [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On Tuesday, rapeseed meal futures declined. The main 2605 contract settled down 1.42% at 2365. The overall situation between the US and Iran has eased, and the sharp drop in oil prices has driven down the prices of oilseeds. The impact of rapeseed meal import news has temporarily ended, and its own fundamentals lack strong driving forces. The port inventory is at a low level, but with a large number of purchased ships arriving, the future supply may gradually become loose. The decline in the price of soybean meal after the supply problem is alleviated has a certain drag on rapeseed meal. Pay attention to the arrival of rapeseed and domestic demand. Rapeseed meal prices may continue to oscillate and bottom out in the short term. Consider waiting for the market to stabilize before going long. The support level for the RM main contract is 2340 - 2350, and the resistance level is 2740 - 2750 [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On Tuesday, the prices declined slightly. The impact of geopolitical conflicts continues, and the price fluctuations are repeated. In the overseas market, the ending inventory of US corn is at a high level, which suppresses the price. However, the supply - demand situation of the new season is expected to improve, and the increase in the crude oil price center has strengthened the cost support. The CFTC net position has turned bullish, and the US corn futures price is expected to continue to move up. In the domestic corn market, the low inventory in the channels and the tight supply of high - quality grain sources continue to provide medium - term support. The market has high concerns about geopolitical risks in the short term, and the futures price is expected to be supported. However, the increasing pressure of farmers' grain sales and the increase in wheat supply limit the price increase. In the corn starch market, with the strong raw material price and low inventory, the spot price has risen significantly recently, boosting bullish sentiment. As long as the crude oil price does not drop significantly, the futures price will still be supported. Consider going long on corn and corn starch futures when the price is low. The support range for the corn 2605 contract is 2250 - 2280, and the resistance range is 2450 - 2480. The support range for the corn starch 05 contract is 2670 - 2680, and the resistance range is 2850 - 2860. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: On Tuesday, the main 05 contract of soybean No. 1 declined, closing at 4655 in the afternoon (daily change -115 or -2.41%). Recently, the quantity of soybean auction sales has gradually increased, and there have been cases of unsold lots. On the 26th, Cofco Grain and Oil has a plan to auction more than 100,000 tons of domestic soybeans. The market supply is increasing, and the price - holding mentality of the middle and upper reaches may relax. The price of soybean No. 1 is expected to be weak. The valuation of soybean No. 1 is high, and the bullish driving force is weakening. Consider shorting the main contract with a light position. The resistance level for the 05 contract of soybean No. 1 is 4740 - 4760 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4500 - 4530 yuan/ton [8]. - **Live Pigs**: On Tuesday, the commodity trends showed a sharp divergence, and the live pig futures price opened low and closed high. This week, the pig price continued to decline, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change fundamentally. Last week, the National Development and Reform Commission held a new round of regulatory symposium, but the specific measures are not clear yet. It is expected that the purchase and storage efforts may increase. This week, the feed price continued to rebound, and the live pig futures price continued to increase positions at a low level. After breaking through the support, the far - month contracts accelerated their decline. After the spot price fell below the cash flow, the breeding side has a passive pressure - holding sentiment, and the weight has increased passively. The national average price is 9.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of about 0.15 yuan/kg compared with last week. This week, the slaughter volume rebounded seasonally, but the slaughter enterprises are still in a loss. In January, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. Currently, it is 101.6% of the normal inventory. The data for February has not been released. This week, the price of piglets has dropped to around 270 yuan/head, and the loss of self - breeding and self - raising has widened. Currently, the far - month contracts of live pig futures have a premium over the near - term spot and near - month contracts. Wait for further confirmation of capacity reduction in the medium term, and the far - month premium may continue to widen. Conservative investors can wait and see. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 10000 - 10400 (support) and 11000 - 11200 (resistance). Aggressive investors can wait for the spot pressure to be released and then go long on the 2607 contract at a price below 11000. Hold a covered call strategy combination, that is, hold a long futures position and sell deep out - of - the - money call options [8][9]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, the egg futures price oscillated weakly, and the far - month contracts fell to near the previous lows again. This week, the egg spot price rebounded, consumption recovered, and the egg price strengthened marginally. The national average price is about 3.16 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.04 yuan/jin compared with yesterday. Currently, the average cash cost of eggs in the industry has rebounded to 2.95 - 3.05 yuan/jin following the prices of corn and soybean meal. The breeding profit is seasonally in a loss. Since farmers have been in deep losses since the fourth quarter, the number of culled chickens has increased. At the same time, the number of newly - opened laying hens from February to March is small, which has alleviated the supply pressure to some extent. The supply - demand pressure may continue to improve. In terms of futures prices, the far - month peak - season contracts of eggs have a large premium over the current off - season spot. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see. Aggressive investors can go long on the 05 contract when the price is below 3400. Do not chase short on the near - month contracts at historical low prices. The support level for the 2605 contract is 3300 - 3400 points, and the resistance level is 3500 - 3620 points [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Soybean No. 1 05**: The increase in reserve supply has cooled the bullish sentiment. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider shorting with a light position. The support level is 4500 - 4530, and the resistance level is 4740 - 4760 [12]. - **Soybean No. 2 05**: The repeated situation in the Middle East and the firm Brazilian soybean premium. The cost of soybean imports in China is expected to be supported. It is in a wide - range adjustment. Temporarily wait and see [12]. - **Soybean Oil 05**: The repeated situation in the Middle East, strong biodiesel consumption expectations, and continuous bullish driving forces, but short - term fluctuations have intensified. Consider going long after the market stabilizes. The support level is 8450 - 8500, and the resistance level is 8950 - 9000 [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil 05**: The USDA has raised the annual production forecast, and pay attention to the implementation of the US biodiesel policy in March. It is in a wide - range oscillation. Temporarily wait and see [12]. - **Palm Oil 05**: The export and biodiesel expectations in March are positive, but beware of the risk of geopolitical relaxation. Consider replenishing long positions after the market stabilizes. The support level is 9400 - 9410, and the resistance level is 10200 - 10210 [12]. - **Soybean Meal 05**: The repeated situation in the Middle East and the firm Brazilian soybean premium. The cost of soybean imports in China is expected to be supported, and the consumption of soybean meal is still resilient. It is in an oscillatory adjustment. Temporarily wait and see [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05**: Its own fundamentals have limited driving forces, and the price mainly fluctuates in resonance with the prices of Canadian rapeseed and soybean meal. Consider going long after the market stabilizes. The support level is 2340 - 2350, and the resistance level is 2740 - 2750 [12]. - **Corn 05**: Geopolitical risks boost market bullish sentiment. The futures price may be supported in the short term. The medium - term support of low channel inventory and tight supply of high - quality grain sources continues, but the pressure of farmers' grain sales and the increase in wheat supply limit the price increase. Consider going long when the price is low. The support level is 2240 - 2250, and the resistance level is 2480 - 2500 [12]. - **Corn Starch 05**: The spot price has risen significantly, and it may be supported by the cost in the short term. Consider going long when the price is low. The support level is 2670 - 2680, and the resistance level is 2850 - 2860 [12]. - **Live Pigs 05**: The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction has strengthened. It is in an oscillatory bottom - finding process. Wait and see [12]. - **Eggs 05**: The decrease in newly - opened laying hens and the expectation of a consumption peak season. It is in an oscillatory bottom - finding process. Wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties such as soybean No. 1 5 - 9, soybean No. 2 5 - 9, etc., it is recommended to wait and see. For corn 5 - 9, consider shorting at high prices; for live pigs 5 - 7, hold a reverse arbitrage position [13]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For most inter - variety spreads such as 05 soybean oil - palm oil, 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, etc., it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 bean oil - meal ratio and 05 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, take a bullish approach; for 05 corn - starch, consider shorting at high prices [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties such as soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, etc. [14] 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods, such as the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, etc. [15][16] - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and fats and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, etc., and the operating rates of soybean and rapeseed oil plants [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and different months, including CNF price, arrival duty - paid cost, etc. [17] - **Weekly Data**: It includes the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of starch enterprises of corn in deep - processing enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, such as the spot price, price change, and key weekly data of live pigs and eggs [18][19][20][21] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes a series of charts related to the livestock farming end (live pigs, eggs), oils and fats and oilseeds, and feed end, such as the closing price of live pig and egg futures, the production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil, etc. [22 - 109] 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils and Fats It shows the historical volatility of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, etc., and the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [93 - 99] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Rece

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries show different trends, and investors need to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to specific situations [5][8][10] - Some industries may face price fluctuations and uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [13][15][18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.52% to 111.240 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.02% to 108.165 yuan, the 5 - year main contract was flat at 105.915 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% to 102.478 yuan [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 1.41%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract rose 1.66%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 2.72%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract rose 3.09% [7] - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9] 3.3 Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed at 977.28 with a 3.97% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 17,085 with a 10.86% increase [10] - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [10][11] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,990 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,120 - 3,240 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,280 - 3,300 yuan/ton [12] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound but with limited space. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [13][14] 3.5 Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The PB powder port spot price was 795 yuan/ton, and the Super Special powder spot price was 680 yuan/ton [15] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may support prices, but the impact may be limited. From a technical perspective, iron ore futures may rebound in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [15][16] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated at high levels [17] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. For coking coal, the supply may increase, and attention should be paid to the pressure. For coke, the supply is stable, and the increase in demand supports prices. From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [18][19] 3.7 Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.43% to 6,480 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.20% to 6,100 yuan/ton. The Tianjin manganese - silicon spot price rose 80 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - iron price rose 80 yuan/ton to 5,680 yuan/ton [20] - The cost of ferroalloys has limited downward space, and the overall oversupply pressure continues. The recent improvement in profitability in the main production areas weakens the cost support. The short - term surplus of silicon - iron may increase, and the inventory continues to accumulate [20] 3.8 Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the US delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and the possibility of negotiations between the US and Iran [21] - The increase in net long positions in CFTC futures and options shows that US funds are more optimistic about the future of crude oil. However, the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed, and the US and Iran may cease fire for a month for negotiations. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for INE crude oil [22][23] 3.9 Polyolefins - Last trading day, the Hangzhou PP market mostly declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE market also fell [24] - Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure has increased, the futures fluctuate frequently, and the industry's operating rate has continued to decline. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for polyolefins [24][25] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.06%. The mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Shandong remained stable at 16,600 - 17,000 yuan/ton [26] - The current main contradiction is cost - driven. The short - term price may maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance in the second half of the month, the trend of crude oil prices, and changes in tire export orders [26][28] 3.11 Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.37%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 2.27%. The Shanghai spot price of whole - latex increased to around 16,300 yuan/ton [29] - The current core contradiction is the game between the increase in synthetic rubber cost and the expected substitution demand for natural rubber due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the approaching domestic production area opening and slow demand recovery and inventory pressure. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and the price may maintain a wide - range oscillation [29][30] 3.12 PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell 4.41%, and the spot price in the East China region decreased by 250 yuan/ton [31] - The current core contradiction is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts, the start of domestic spring demand, and high inventory. In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price may oscillate strongly, but the upward space is restricted by high inventory. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength [31][33] 3.13 Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.06%, and the spot price in Shandong Linyi increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,880 yuan/ton [34] - The recent main contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price oscillates weakly, but the cost support and the arrival of the demand peak season limit the downward space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether the export policy will be adjusted and the demand connection after April [34][35] 3.14 PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell 4.22%. The PX profit has dropped significantly, and the PXN spread has dropped to around 65 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread has dropped to around 88 US dollars/ton [36] - Affected by the supply concerns of upstream raw materials, domestic refineries have reduced their loads. The short - term PXN spread and short - process profit are continuously compressed, and the processing fee has room for repair. The PX price may oscillate widely in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [36][37] 3.15 PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 4.15%. The PTA processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton [38] - Affected by the shrinkage of raw material supply, PTA production cuts have increased. The cost support has collapsed recently. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and cautious operation is recommended, paying attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and changes in crude oil prices [38] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 6.23%. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 66.45%, and the inventory in some main ports in East China has increased [39][40] - The short - term Strait passage has loosened, and the import is expected to shrink. The inventory may gradually decrease, and there is support below. The short - term geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and cautious treatment is required, paying attention to the negotiation progress and Strait situation [40] 3.17 Short Fibers - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fell 3.28%. The short - fiber device load has slightly decreased [41] - Recently, the short - fiber supply has declined, and the terminal factory inventory has decreased. The overall supply - demand has weakened slightly. The short - term still trades based on the cost logic. Attention should be paid to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and the resumption progress of downstream factories [41] 3.18 Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle - chip 2605 main contract fell 3.38%. The bottle - chip processing fee is adjusted to around 1,200 yuan/ton [42] - The supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much, and the processing fee continues to repair. The manufacturer's price - holding intention is relatively strong. Due to the changeable Middle East situation, the price fluctuations of crude oil and PTA may increase. Cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the geopolitical situation, device operation dynamics, and cost changes [42][43] 3.19 Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,240 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase [44] - The supply of soda ash remains high, the inventory has decreased to some extent, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The short - term price may oscillate steadily under emotional support [44] 3.20 Glass - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1,064 yuan/ton with a 1.12% decrease [45] - The glass production line continues to shrink, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and the downstream order recovery is slow. The cost support is still there, and the subsequent market sentiment may fluctuate [45][46] 3.21 Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,557 yuan/ton with a 1.27% decrease [47] - The supply of caustic soda has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also decreased. The price of alumina has risen, which supports the price of caustic soda. The 50% and 32% caustic soda prices are bifurcated. Attention should be paid to overseas device dynamics, export order implementation, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [47][48] 3.22 Pulp - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5,210 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase [49] - The port inventory of pulp continues to decrease, and the domestic supply has changed little. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The risk of needle - leaf pulp fluctuation is relatively large, and broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable with cost support [49] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 6.11% to 152,940 yuan/ton [50] - The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and the demand in the consumer end is improving. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict [50] 3.24 Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 94,670 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase [51] - The inflation expectation has almost erased the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the global risk preference is suppressed. The supply of refined copper is at risk of contraction, and the demand has a solid bottom. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak oscillation with a bottom [51][52] 3.25 Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,810 yuan/ton with a 0.42% increase, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,962 yuan/ton with a 2.18% decrease [53] - Alumina shows a cost - driven passive rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The price of alumina may enter an oscillatory adjustment state, and the price of electrolytic aluminum may oscillate weakly, but there is support at the bottom [53][55] 3.26 Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,880 yuan/ton with a 0.52% decrease [56] - The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, and the domestic refined zinc production has increased. The real - estate sector may drag down the galvanizing field. The zinc price may be under pressure due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the strong - dollar logic [56][57] 3.27 Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,470 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [58] - The production of primary lead enterprises is increasing, and the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises is delayed. The demand is flat, and the lead price may run weakly due to the lack of fundamental highlights and macro - pressure on the non - ferrous sector [58][59] 3.28 Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.81% to 348,620 yuan/ton [60] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The supply of refined tin is slightly eased, and the demand has short - term support. The short - term price of tin has support below, but the overseas situation is still highly uncertain, and attention should be paid to risk control [60][61] 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract fell 0.59% to 133,890 yuan/ton [62] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is still in an oversupply pattern. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [62] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.60% to 2,961 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.97% to 8,594 yuan/ton [63] - Brazil's soybean harvest progress is over 60%, and the domestic soybean import has slowed down. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. The price of oil and meal may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [63][64] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing tense situation in the Middle East and the firm operation of international energy prices effectively support the prices of oils, fats, and oilseeds. The prices of related products are expected to show different trends, and investors are advised to adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [3][4][5]. - For different agricultural products, such as soybeans, palm oil, and corn, their prices are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [3][4][7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: - **Bean 1 05 Contract**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The source of beans is concentrated in the middle - stream, and the downstream still has replenishment demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. - **Bean 2 05 Contract**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The tense situation in the Middle East continues, and the Brazilian premium is firm. The cost - end support for China's soybean imports is expected to continue. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: - **Soybean Oil 05 Contract**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The consumption expectation of biodiesel is strong, and the bullish driving force continues, but the short - term amplitude increases. It is recommended to go long after the market stabilizes [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil 05 Contract**: It is expected to fluctuate. The USDA has raised the annual production forecast, and the resumption expectation suppresses the market. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the US biodiesel policy in March. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Palm Oil 05 Contract**: It is expected to rise with fluctuations. The export and biodiesel expectations of Malaysian palm oil in March are positive, but the risk of geopolitical relaxation needs to be vigilant. It is recommended to replenish long positions after the market stabilizes [12]. - **Proteins**: - **Soybean Meal 05 Contract**: It is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations. The tense situation in the Middle East continues, and the cost - end support for China's soybean imports is expected to continue. The consumption of soybean meal still has resilience. It is recommended to go long after the market stabilizes [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05 Contract**: It is expected to fluctuate. Its own fundamental driving force is limited, and the price mainly resonates with the prices of Canadian rapeseed and soybean meal. It is recommended to go long after the market stabilizes [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: - **Corn 05 Contract**: It is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations. Geopolitical risks boost the bullish sentiment in the market. The medium - term support of low channel inventory and tight supply of high - quality grain sources continues, but the selling pressure of farmers at the grass - roots level and the increase in wheat supply will limit the increase in prices. It is recommended to go long on dips [12]. - **Starch 05 Contract**: It is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations. The spot price has increased significantly, and it may follow the cost to be stronger in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [12]. - **Livestock Farming**: - **Live Pig 05 Contract**: It is expected to find the bottom with fluctuations. Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Egg 05 Contract**: It is expected to find the bottom with fluctuations. The number of newly - opened laying hens decreases, and there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, such as bean 1 5 - 9, bean 2 5 - 9, etc., it is recommended to wait and see. For corn 5 - 9, it is recommended to short on rallies; for live pig 5 - 7, it is recommended to hold reverse arbitrage positions [13]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For most varieties, such as 05 soybean oil - palm oil, 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, etc., it is recommended to wait and see. For 05 soybean oil - meal ratio and 05 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach; for 05 corn - starch, it is recommended to short on rallies [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils and fats, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods, including arrival premiums, CBOT futures prices, CNF arrival prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and different months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn and corn starch [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and key data related to supply, demand, and profit [18][19][20][21]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related prices such as piglet prices, white - striped pork prices, chicken苗 prices, and culled chicken prices [23][24][26][27][28][30]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: It includes production, export volume, inventory, import margin, and other data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as domestic palm oil inventory, trading volume, and basis [32][34][35][37]. - **Soybean Oil**: It includes US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, inventory, trading volume, and basis [39][40][41][44]. - **Peanuts**: It includes domestic peanut arrival and shipment volume, pressing profit, operating rate, inventory, and import volume [47][48]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: It includes the closing price, spot price, basis, inventory, sales progress, import volume, and consumption of corn [50][52][53][55]. - **Corn Starch**: It includes the closing price, spot price, basis, operating rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch [57][61][62]. - **Rapeseed**: It includes the spot price, basis, inventory, and pressing profit of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [64][66][68][69][78]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes the growth rate, inventory, basis, and price ratio of US soybeans [73][77][79][86]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils and Fats It provides the option - related data of various varieties, including price differences, historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest [89][90][92]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils and Fats It provides the warehouse receipt data of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [96][99][100][104].