农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年11月25日星期二 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 。 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力01合约下跌，午后收于8144（日变动-24或 -0.29%）。产地棕榈油超预期增产，棕榈油价格下挫带动豆油价格 走低。目前国内豆油库存较为充足，并且市场担忧美豆油生 ...

盘面来看，玉米期价总体偏强震荡，谨慎追涨。 | 观点总结（ | 随着新季玉米上市量逐步增加，原料玉米供应较为充裕，行业开机率持续回升，供应端压力增加。不过，当前供需结构良好，下游 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | 需求尚可，企业走货顺畅。截至11月19日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量110.9万吨，较上周下降2.40万吨，周降幅2.12%，月 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | 降幅1.68%；年同比增幅25.59%。盘面来看，近日淀粉随玉米市场同步上涨。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期 ...

2025 年 11 月 25 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.31%报 115.570 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.04%报 108.430 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.06%报 105.855 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.460 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，11 月 21 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3750 亿元 7 ...

缓。盘面来看，前期走强后，近日玉米期价略有回落，短期观望。 | 观点总结（ | 随着新季玉米上市量逐步增加，原料玉米供应较为充裕，行业开机率持续回升，供应端压力增加。不过，当前供需结构良好，下游 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | 需求尚可，企业走货顺畅。截至11月19日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量110.9万吨，较上周下降2.40万吨，周降幅2.12%，月 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | 玉米系产业日报 2025-11-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -7 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 吨) 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 1 玉米淀粉月间价差(1-3):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -13588 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2168 -69 932364 | | 2473 0 219992 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market environments [5]. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a decline in treasury bond futures. With the current macro - economic situation and market conditions, there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day showed mixed performance. Given the current domestic economic situation, market sentiment, and external factors, the risk of a significant decline is low, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day witnessed price increases. Considering the global trade and financial environment, central bank actions, and the current price level, it is advisable to wait and see for a long - position opportunity [10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Alumina supply is relatively loose, and aluminum needs to beware of seasonal consumption pressure and profit - taking, with a possible phased correction [49]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day remained flat. With tight supply of zinc concentrates and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Due to supply and demand factors, lead prices are expected to operate within a range [54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. With tight supply and certain demand support, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [56]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day had an increase. Facing supply - demand contradictions, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Considering supply - demand relationships and technical aspects, prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With a weak supply - demand pattern and technical resistance, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day had a significant decline. Based on supply - demand changes and technical analysis, there may be a short - term correction, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during the correction [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day had a decline. With high - level production decline, weak demand recovery, and cost support, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [18]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day had an upward trend. Considering supply - demand factors and market news, there are concerns about supply surplus, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the short - term [20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With mixed supply - demand factors, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [23][24]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With improved downstream demand in some areas, investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With supply and demand factors, there is still room for short - term price increases, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities [31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day had a decline. With an oversupply situation, attention should be paid to supply - side changes [33]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. It is expected that the market will decline slightly in the next period, but the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day had an increase. With improved short - term supply - demand structure, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and investors can participate in the range [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day had an increase. With low processing fees, low inventory, and cost factors, it is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and caution is needed [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day had a decline. With increased supply and inventory, it is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory and supply changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With high - level supply, stable demand, and enhanced cost - driving, it is expected to fluctuate with costs [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day had an increase. With raw material price support and stable supply and demand, it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day had a significant increase. With strong supply and demand, inventory is being depleted, and attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [45]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day had different performances. With sufficient soybean supply and improved demand for soybean oil, investors can focus on long - position opportunities for soybean oil and consider exiting long positions for soybean meal [59]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day had an increase. Affected by supply - demand factors, investors can consider long - position opportunities during corrections [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day had a decline. With supply - demand and external factors, investors can consider a long - position strategy for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With increased global and US production and inventory, and domestic supply and demand factors, cotton prices are expected to be weak [66]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day had a decline. With global production expectations and domestic supply pressure, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [70]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day had a high - level volatile operation. With current inventory and market conditions, apple prices are expected to operate strongly [74]. - **Pigs**: The previous trading day had a price increase. With sufficient supply and uncertain demand, investors can consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day had a price decline. With high - level supply and weak demand, investors can consider closing short positions gradually [79]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day had an increase. With new - season corn supply pressure and inventory factors, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [81].

玉米系产业日报 2025-11-19 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 偏强，市场收购量维持低位，深加工企业到货量尚可，能够满足企业日常需求，收购价格涨势明显放缓。 盘面来看，前期走强后，近日玉米期价略有回落，短期观望。 | 观点总结（ | 随着新季玉米上市量逐步增加，原料玉米供应较为充裕，行业开机率持续回升，供应端压力增加。不过，当前供需结构良好，下游 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | 需求尚可，企业走货顺畅。截至11月19日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量110.9万吨，较上周下降2.40万吨，周降幅2.12%，月 | | 重点 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire report industry are provided. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: The risk of a significant decline is low, and it is advisable to take long positions opportunistically [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily observe and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to correct in the short term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17] - **Ferroalloys**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] - **Crude Oil**: In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [22][23] - **Fuel Oil**: Focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [25][26] - **Polyolefins**: Temporarily observe [28] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] - **Natural Rubber**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] - **PVC**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [36][37] - **PX**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] - **PTA**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] - **Short - Fiber**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] - **Copper**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] - **Aluminum**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] - **Zinc**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] - **Lead**: Will operate within a range [53][54] - **Tin**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] - **Nickel**: May oscillate [57] - **Soybean Oil and Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] - **Palm Oil**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] - **Rapeseed Meal and Oil**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] - **Cotton**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] - **Sugar**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] - **Apples**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] - **Hogs**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] - **Eggs**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to observe for corn and wait for the release of supply pressure; corn starch may follow the corn market [83][86] Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw all treasury bond futures close higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising 0.06%, 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - **Open - Market Operations**: On November 18, the central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 37 billion yuan [5] - **Policy News**: 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support consumption infrastructure and the construction of the commercial circulation system [5] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures down 0.41%, 0.23%, 0.85%, and 0.69% respectively [8][9] - **Economic Data**: In October, the unemployment rates of different age - groups in the labor force were announced, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow [9] - **Market Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The risk of a significant decline is low [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures decline, with gold down 1.18% and silver down 1.96% [11] - **Positive Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and the expected Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals [11] - **Negative Factors**: The recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures [13] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. Supply is affected by poor profitability, and inventory is high [13] - **Outlook**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend [13] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate [15] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for iron ore has declined, but there was a recent increase in daily pig - iron output. Supply is abundant, and inventory is higher than last year [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and there may be resistance to rebounds [15] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures [17] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand is weak. Coke supply has decreased, and demand may weaken [17] - **Outlook**: May continue to correct in the short term [17] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures decline [19] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Manganese ore supply has decreased, and costs have increased. Production is declining, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating [19] - **Outlook**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open high and close low [21] - **Industry News**: The CFTC report is suspended, the number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and Russia has been attacked [21] - **Outlook**: There are concerns about oversupply, but the attack on Russia is beneficial to prices. In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities [22][23] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned, but there is an analysis of supply and demand [24] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative, while Russia's sanctions and reduced Sino - US trade frictions are positive [24][25] - **Outlook**: Focus on shorting opportunities [25][26] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a weak and volatile PP market in Hangzhou and a stable LLDPE market in Yuyao [27] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PP downstream demand has a mixed performance, with some industries seeing an increase and others remaining weak [27] - **Outlook**: Temporarily observe [28] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main synthetic rubber contract rise 0.91% [29] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Raw material prices have rebounded, production capacity utilization has increased, and inventory has increased [29][30] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main natural rubber contract rise 0.33% [32] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [32] - **Outlook**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PVC contract decline 1.46% [34] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory has decreased slightly [34][35] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main urea contract rise 0.36% [36] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is at a certain level [36] - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36][37] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PX contract decline 0.53% [38] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, and imports have decreased slightly [38] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PTA contract decline 0.55% [40] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has adjusted, demand is stable, and processing fees have decreased [40] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main ethylene glycol contract decline 0.64% [41] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, inventory has increased, and demand is limited [41] - **Outlook**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main short - fiber contract decline 0.64% [42] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization is high, demand is weak, and processing fees are at a certain level [42] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main bottle - chip contract decline 0.56% [43] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, export growth has slowed, and processing fees are at a certain level [43] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lithium carbonate contract rise 0.93% [44] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving, with inventory decreasing [44][45] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main copper contract decline 0.03% [46] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by mine production problems, and demand is weak except for the copper - foil sector [46] - **Outlook**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main aluminum contract decline 0.16%, and the alumina contract decline 0.36% [48] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Alumina supply is abundant, and aluminum demand is weakening [48] - **Outlook**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main zinc contract rise 0.11% [51] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply of zinc concentrate is tight, production has decreased, and demand is flat [51] - **Outlook**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lead contract decline 0.49% [53] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance, and demand is in the off - season [53] - **Outlook**: Will operate within a range [53][54] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main tin contract rise 0.68% [55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is tight, and demand has shown some resilience [55][56] - **Outlook**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main nickel contract decline 0.02% [57] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Nickel ore prices are stable, production may be affected, and demand is weak [57] - **Outlook**: May oscillate [57] Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw soybean meal down 0.33% and soybean oil up 0.60% [58] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil - mill压榨 is in a loss, and demand for both products has some improvement [58][59] - **Outlook**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures rose, and exports decreased in November [60] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Malaysian inventory is at a high level but may decrease, and domestic inventory is at a medium level [60] - **Outlook**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose [62] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Chinese rapeseed imports have decreased, and inventory is at different levels [62][63] - **Outlook**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures decline, and overseas cotton rose [65] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global and US cotton production and inventory have increased, and domestic supply pressure is high [65][67] - **Outlook**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic and overseas sugar futures decline [69] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Brazil is in the seasonal production - reduction period, India has strong production - increase expectations, and domestic imports are expected to be high [69][71] - **Outlook**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] Apples - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures oscillate at a high level [73] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is lower than last year, and quality is poor [73][74][75] - **Outlook**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] Hogs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main hog contract decline 1.16% [78] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is abundant, and demand is affected by the season. Inventory and cost are at certain levels [77][78] - **Outlook**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main egg contract decline 0.87% [82] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, but there are signs of improvement. Demand is weak [79][80][82] - **Outlook**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main corn contract decline 0.50% and the starch contract decline 0.96% [83] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Corn supply is abundant, and demand is growing slightly. Corn starch demand has improved, but inventory is high [83][84][86] - **Outlook**:

，基层种植惜售情绪升温，上量节奏有所放缓，同时本地粮质偏差，催生对东北粮源的采购需求，但车皮 紧张东北粮源入关不畅，市场供应逐步偏紧，企业价格继续小幅上调。盘面来看，近日受现货走强提振， 玉米期价整体走势有所偏强，短期观望。 | | 随着新季玉米上市量逐步增加，原料玉米供应较为充裕，行业开机率持续回升，供应端压力增加。不过， | | --- | --- | | 观点总结（ | 当前供需结构良好，下游需求尚可，企业走货顺畅。截至11月12日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量113.3 | | 玉米） | | | | 万吨，较上周下降0.50万吨，周降幅0.44%，月增幅0.44%；年同比增幅27.59%。盘面来看，近期淀粉随 | | 观点总结（ | 今日暂无消息 | | | 玉米市场同步震荡收涨，短期观望。 | | 淀粉） 重点关注 | 今日暂无消息 | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | 玉米系产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 -14 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock market, and various commodity markets show different trends and investment opportunities based on their respective fundamentals [6][9][13]. Group 2: Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts rose by 0.33%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 283 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 163.1 billion yuan on that day. From January to October, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. Group 3: Equities (Stock Index Futures) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures主力 contracts fell by 0.89%, 1.12%, 0.50%, and 0.26% respectively [8]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is low, the valuation of domestic assets is low, and there is room for repair. The risk of a sharp decline in the stock index is small, and investors can consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10][11]. Group 4: Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract closed at 929.46, down 2.49%, and the silver主力 contract closed at 11,933, down 3.57%. Japan's Q3 GDP showed a decline, while the EU raised its GDP growth forecast for the eurozone in 2025 [12]. - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see for long - entry opportunities [13][14]. Group 5: Ferrous Metals (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal and Coke, Ferroalloys) Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,090 - 3,230 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the price of rebar is likely to remain weak due to the weak demand from the real estate industry and high inventory. The trend of hot - rolled coil is expected to be similar. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound, and investors can consider shorting at high positions during the rebound [16]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The spot price of PB powder was 790 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special powder was 680 yuan/ton [18]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, the rebound may face resistance. Investors can consider shorting at high positions [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, while the demand for high - priced coking coal has decreased. The fourth - round increase in the spot purchase price of coke has been implemented [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Technically, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can consider buying on dips [21]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract rose 0.73% to 5,792 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose 1.38% to 5,566 yuan/ton. The supply of manganese ore has decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak [23]. - **Outlook**: The over - supply situation of ferroalloys has eased. After a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot is in the loss - making range [24]. Group 6: Energy (Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly and closed near the 5 - day moving average. The CFTC position report was suspended due to the US government shutdown. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased, and Russia was attacked, which affected the oil market [25]. - **Outlook**: Although the number of rigs has increased, the growth of US crude oil production is still uncertain. The attack on Russia is positive for oil prices, but there are still concerns about oversupply. It is advisable to wait and see [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward. The expected supply of fuel oil is sufficient, but the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions have positive effects [28][29][30]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for the fuel oil主力 contract [31]. Group 7: Chemicals (Polyolefins, Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber, PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Lithium Carbonate) Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed high - level loosening, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao adjusted. The average downstream industry start - up rate of domestic polypropylene increased slightly, and the demand for some packaging products increased [32]. - **Outlook**: Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [33]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力 contract fell 0.14%. The price of raw material butadiene rebounded, and the capacity utilization rate of the high - cis butadiene rubber industry increased [34]. - **Outlook**: The price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate widely with limited downward space. Pay attention to the raw material and supply situation [34]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力 contract rose 0.20%. The supply in domestic and overseas production areas is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises has decreased. Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year [35]. - **Outlook**: Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [35]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract fell 0.07%. The supply is still in excess, and the profit of the industrial chain has declined. The social inventory has decreased slightly [36]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the changes in exports and supply reduction after the festival [36]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract rose 0.79%. The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the industrial demand is insufficient. The inventory situation is different from the previous week's expectation [37]. - **Outlook**: The urea market is expected to decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [37][38]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX主力 contract fell 0.76%. The PXN spread is relatively stable, the supply has decreased slightly, and the cost is affected by the oil price [39]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX may fluctuate and adjust, with support at the bottom. Investors can participate in the range, pay attention to the oil price and macro - policies [39]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601主力 contract fell 0.42%. The supply load has been adjusted, the demand of the polyester industry is relatively stable, and the processing fee has decreased [40][41]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PTA may fluctuate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to the oil price [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力 contract rose 0.36%. The overall start - up load has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the demand support is limited [42]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ethylene glycol may be under pressure. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602主力 contract fell 0.16%. The supply load is high, the demand has not changed much, and the cost drive has increased [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2601主力 contract fell 0.24%. The processing fee has been adjusted, the supply load has decreased, the export growth has slowed down, but it is still at a high level [45]. - **Outlook**: In the future, bottle - chip is expected to fluctuate with the cost. Investors should control risks [45]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the主力 contract rose 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased [46]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Group 8: Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel) Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper主力 contract closed at 86,320 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The US government shutdown ended, and China's economic data in October was weak. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the terminal demand is affected by high raw material prices [47][48]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [48][49]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum主力 contract closed at 21,625 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the alumina主力 contract closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The supply of bauxite is stable, the supply of alumina is loose, and the demand is weakening [50]. - **Outlook**: There may be a phased correction [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc主力 contract closed at 22,390 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the production of refined zinc has decreased, and the demand is average [52][53]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [53][54]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead主力 contract closed at 17,275 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The supply of primary lead is affected by maintenance, the production of recycled lead is growing slowly, and the demand is in the off - season [55]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to run within a range [55][56]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the tin主力 contract fell 1.12% to 290,940 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows some resilience in emerging fields [57]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [57]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel主力 contract fell 0.71% to 116,990 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron is affected, and the demand is weak [58][59]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [59]. Group 9: Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil and Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal and Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn and Starch) Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.23% to 3,043 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.14% to 8,282 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slower, and the US soybean production is slightly adjusted. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the inventory of soybean oil and meal has different trends [60]. - **Outlook**: For soybean meal, investors can consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise. For soybean oil, pay attention to long - entry opportunities at the low - cost support level [61]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by the exchange rate and export data. The domestic palm oil imports have decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level. The catering industry shows growth [62]. - **Outlook**: Consider buying on dips [63]. Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed market is affected by the US soybean market. The import of Canadian rapeseed has not restarted, and the inventory of rapeseed, meal, and oil in China has different trends [64]. - **Outlook**: For rapeseed oil, consider a long - biased strategy [65]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US Department of Agriculture raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is expected to be high, and the demand is weak after the peak season [65][66]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to run weakly [66][67]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Brazilian sugar production is in the seasonal decline period, while India has a strong production increase expectation. The domestic sugar production in the north has started, and the import volume is expected to be high in the fourth quarter [68][69][70][71]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [72]. Apple - **Market Performance**: The domestic apple futures are oscillating at a high level. The inventory is lower than last year, and the quality of this year's apples is poor [73]. - **Outlook**: Apple prices are expected to run strongly [74]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs has decreased. The supply may increase in the second half of the month, and the demand is expected to be weak in the short term [75][77]. - **Outlook**: Consider shorting on rebounds and pay attention to changes in consumption [77]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The price of eggs has decreased slightly. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level but may decline slightly in November. The consumption may be supported after the temperature drops [78]. - **Outlook**: Consider gradually closing short positions [79]. Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The corn主力 contract was flat, and the corn starch主力 contract fell 0.60%. The US corn production was adjusted downward, and the demand for corn shows a slight increase. The inventory of corn and starch has different trends [80][81]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [82].

对东北粮源的采购需求，但车皮紧张东北粮源入关不畅，市场供应逐步偏紧，企业价格继续小幅上调。盘 面来看，近日受现货走强提振，玉米期价整体走势有所偏强，短期观望。 玉米系产业日报 2025-11-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -3 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2182 | | | 2489 | -16 | | | 吨) 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 6 玉米淀粉月间价差(1-3):(日,元/吨) | -61 | | | 2 | -3 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -13255 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 934047 | | | 227112 | -10823 | | | -1115 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -121652 | | | -53346 | -1874 | ...