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华宝期货晨报成材:宏观与基本面共振钢价走弱-20251016
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 02:52
Group 1 - Report's investment rating for the industry: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Steel prices are running at a low level, facing short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. The industry fundamentals remain sluggish, and steel prices are weakly operating under the resonance of macro and fundamentals [1][3] Group 3 - Summary based on related content: - Policy and international situation: The US threatens to impose a 100% tariff on China, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds that this is not the right way to get along with China. Hebei Province issues measures to support key industries' environmental performance, and steel industry leading enterprises may not reduce or reduce the proportion of crude steel production [2] - Cost and profit: The average hot - metal cost of Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills is 2247 yuan/ton, and the average billet cost is 3006 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the billet price on October 15th, the average loss per ton of steel mills is 86 yuan [2] - Real estate data: The total sales of 17 key real - estate enterprises from January to September 2025 are 1055.724 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. In September, the sales are 113.85 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 1.7% [2] - Engineering machinery data: In September, the monthly operating rate of China's main engineering machinery products is 55.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.08 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The operating rate of excavators is 54.5% [2] - Market performance: Steel prices continued to hit new lows yesterday. Rebar is approaching 3000, and hot - rolled coils are approaching 3200 [2]