Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile. The intraday trend is slightly weaker. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the seasonal recovery of supply and demand and the volatile operation of steel prices [2]. - The rebar market is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the improvement in the fundamentals is limited. The steel price is under pressure, and the strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **品种观点参考 (Variety Viewpoint Reference)** - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly weaker. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the seasonal recovery of supply and demand and the volatile operation of steel prices. There are also explanations for the calculation of price fluctuations and the definitions of different market trends [2]. - **行情驱动逻辑 (Market Driving Logic)** - The supply and demand of rebar have a seasonal recovery. Short - process steel mills' resumption of production has led to a continuous increase in rebar output, and the high inventory level has increased the supply pressure. The rebar demand has a seasonal improvement, but it is still at a relatively low level, and the demand improvement is limited. Currently, the supply has risen to a relatively high level, and the demand has a seasonal improvement. In the situation of increasing supply and demand, the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the steel price is under pressure. The strong raw materials provide cost support, and the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize, with the demand performance being the focus [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices rose today. The black sector as a whole surged in the morning, with coking coal hitting the daily limit, but the market pulled back in the afternoon. Spot steel transactions were generally favorable, with active spot and futures purchases and improved rigid demand. The basis narrowed. Last week, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly, with an increase in rebar output and a shift to increased hot-rolled coil output. Steel mills were still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovered seasonally, but inventories continued to accumulate rapidly, especially for rebar, and inventory shifted from mill warehouses to social warehouses. Last week, the capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country improved, with better capital availability for housing construction projects than non-real estate projects. The "Two Sessions" announced this year's economic growth target, with the GDP growth rate lower than last year, and the other targets remaining the same as in 2025. Since capital expenditure in the first quarter may fall short of expectations, the demand recovery situation remains to be seen. The pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the height of hot metal production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. However, overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and the oil price has soared due to the impact of the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global energy prices in the short term and raising the cost of steel raw materials. Therefore, steel prices are likely to remain volatile and slightly stronger in the near term, but there is still a chance for steel prices to return to fundamentals in March, and pressure on steel prices remains. Follow-up attention should be paid to hot metal production, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: RB05 rose 31 yuan to 3088 yuan/ton, RB10 rose 32 yuan to 3147 yuan/ton, and RB01 rose 33 yuan to 3174 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts also changed. The 05 contract rebar disk profit decreased by 10 yuan to -151 yuan/ton, the 10 contract decreased by 6 yuan to -108 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract decreased by 9 yuan to -99 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot**: The prices of rebar in different regions increased to varying degrees. The cheapest deliverable was 3190 yuan/ton, and the basis for different contracts also changed. The regional spreads and spot profits also showed different trends [2] 3.1.2 Hot-rolled Coil - **Futures**: HC05 rose 40 yuan to 3270 yuan/ton, HC10 rose 38 yuan to 3282 yuan/ton, and HC01 rose 28 yuan to 3291 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts changed. The 05 contract hot-rolled coil disk profit decreased by 1 yuan to 0 yuan/ton, the 10 contract remained unchanged at 27 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract decreased by 14 yuan to 18 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot**: The prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions increased. The cheapest deliverable was 3260 yuan/ton, and the basis for different contracts also changed. The regional spreads and spot profits also showed different trends [2] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Relevant Prices - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3190 yuan (+30), Beijing Jingye was 3130 yuan (+30), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil was 3260 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil was 3180 yuan (+40) [5] 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Unilateral**: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [9] 3.2.3 Important Information - In February 2026, the national consumer price index increased by 1.3% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month. The average consumer price from January to February increased by 0.8% compared with the same period last year [8][10] - In February 2026, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and increased by 0.4% month-on-month. The average industrial producer price from January to February decreased by 1.2% compared with the same period last year [10] 3.3 Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the price trends, basis, spreads, and disk profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils, as well as the cash profits of different steel products and the cost of electric furnaces [15][17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Lantern Festival, downstream demand is slowly recovering, and seasonal inventory accumulation continues. Due to the expected "Golden March and Silver April" demand peak season and strong cost support from energy prices, prices are supported at low levels. Futures trends are stronger than spot, and the basis is shrinking. Steel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [7][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot prices: The price of 20MM HRB400E rebar in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton; the price in Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3100 yuan/ton; the price in Guangzhou increased by 30 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton. The price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton; the price in Tianjin remained unchanged at 3140 yuan/ton; the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged at 3240 yuan/ton. The price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) at Qingdao Port increased by 15 yuan/wet ton to 764 yuan/wet ton. The price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Lvliang decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1340 yuan/ton, and the price of low-sulfur primary coking coal in Linfen decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1460 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The RB01 contract increased by 17 yuan/ton to 3141 yuan/ton; the RB05 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton to 3088 yuan/ton; the RB10 contract increased by 15 yuan/ton to 3115 yuan/ton. The HC01 contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3263 yuan/ton; the HC05 contract increased by 15 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton; the HC10 contract increased by 11 yuan/ton to 3244 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The basis of Shanghai rebar (05 contract) increased by 31 yuan/ton to 102 yuan/ton; the basis of Beijing rebar (05 contract) increased by 11 yuan/ton to 12 yuan/ton; the basis of Guangzhou rebar (05 contract) increased by 51 yuan/ton to 302 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai hot-rolled coil (05 contract) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the basis of Tianjin hot-rolled coil (05 contract) increased by 15 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton; the basis of Guangzhou hot-rolled coil (05 contract) increased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [7]. - Spreads: The RB05 - 10 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to -27 yuan/ton; the HC05 - 10 spread increased by 4 yuan/ton to -14 yuan/ton; the 05HC - 05RB spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to 142 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The rebar futures warehouse receipt increased by 17318 tons to 16646 tons; the hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipt increased by 119968 tons to 472215 tons. The rebar mill inventory increased by 5 tons to 237.93 tons; the rebar social inventory increased by 70 tons to 637.75 tons; the rebar total inventory increased by 75 tons to 875.68 tons. The hot-rolled coil mill inventory increased by 5 tons to 90.08 tons; the hot-rolled coil social inventory increased by 24 tons to 381.61 tons; the hot-rolled coil total inventory increased by 20 tons to 471.69 tons [7]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Production: The weekly production of rebar was 173.31 tons (a week-on-week increase of 4.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.06%), and the weekly production of national hot-rolled coils was 301.11 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.35%). The weekly production of rebar in blast furnaces was 161.62 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.54% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.35%), and the weekly production of rebar in electric furnaces was 11.69 tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.50 and a year-on-year decrease of 61.39%) [13][17]. - Capacity utilization rate: The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 77.71% (a week-on-week decrease of 3.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.74%), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 24.71% (a week-on-week increase of 144% and a year-on-year decrease of 63.08%) [21][22]. - Profit: The profit of rebar was +72 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 11 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 65 yuan/ton), and the profit of hot-rolled coils was -12 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 78 yuan/ton) [25]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of rebar was 98.23 tons (a week-on-week increase of 21.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.42%), the 5-day average of national building materials transactions was 5.66 tons (a week-on-week increase of 35.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.45%), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 281.57 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.46%) [30]. - Inventory: The rebar inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, but both mill and social inventories still increased. The rebar mill inventory was 237.93 tons (a week-on-week increase of 2.19% and a year-on-year increase of 3.88%), the rebar social inventory was 637.75 tons (a week-on-week increase of 12.33% and a year-on-year increase of 1.09%), and the rebar total inventory was 875.68 tons (a week-on-week increase of 9.38% and a year-on-year increase of 1.84%). The hot-rolled coil inventory increase has slightly expanded, with the social inventory continuing to rise and the mill inventory falling. The hot-rolled coil mill inventory was 90.08 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 4.96% and a year-on-year increase of 2.33%), the hot-rolled coil social inventory was 381.61 tons (a week-on-week increase of 6.78% and a year-on-year increase of 14.98%), and the hot-rolled coil total inventory was 471.69 tons (a week-on-week increase of 4.32% and a year-on-year increase of 9.97%) [35][40]. - Downstream real estate: The transactions in the commercial housing and land markets have both declined. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 8.75% week-on-week and 24.76% year-on-year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 36.30% week-on-week and increased by 188% year-on-year [43]. - Downstream automotive: In January 2026, automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million vehicles respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year-on-year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.041 million and 945,000 vehicles respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year-on-year. In January, the export of complete automobiles was 681,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%. The export of new energy vehicles was 302,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 100% [46]. 3.3 Spread Analysis - The rebar basis continued to shrink, and the rebar 5 - 10 spread continued to widen. The coil - rebar spread continued to shrink, and the iron ore 5 - 9 spread continued to widen [48][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the next month, steel prices may experience an opportunity for a volatile rebound. The core logic is that after the Spring Festival, downstream construction sites resume work intensively and infrastructure projects are accelerated, pushing steel demand into a seasonal period. Although the supply side will also increase, limited by the narrow profit margin of steel mills, the overall production increase power is limited, laying the foundation for the inventory to reach its peak and decline. The policy signals released during the Two Sessions have provided some confidence to the market. The reference price range for rebar is 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coil, it is 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton [3][47][48]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In February, steel futures fluctuated weakly. The main rebar contract reached a monthly high of 3,139 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a low of 3,005 yuan/ton, closing at 3,067 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 1.95%. The hot-rolled coil also declined, hitting a six - month low. Holiday factors led to the accumulation of industrial contradictions. With terminal construction sites shut down, demand weakened seasonally, while steel mill production remained stable. Under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, inventory increased significantly. After the Spring Festival, rebar rebounded and stabilized after reaching the key level of 3,000 yuan/ton, and the price showed signs of stabilization at the end of the month. In March, with the convening of the Two Sessions, the macro - economic outlook improved, and combined with the seasonal increase in post - holiday demand, the low - level support for steel futures strengthened [8]. 3.2 Steel Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Recovery - In February, steel production was generally stable, but there was a differentiation between long - and short - process production. The blast furnace production was relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remaining around 80%. The electric furnace production contracted significantly, with the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces dropping sharply from 70.66% to 10.14%, and the capacity utilization rate decreasing from 55.71% to 7.35%. The short - process production decreased from 32.21 tons to 2.6 tons. The weekly production of rebar was 165 tons, a decrease of 35 tons from the previous month, while the weekly production of hot - rolled coil was 310 tons, a slight increase of 0.4 tons. In March, steel production is expected to increase steadily. After the Two Sessions, steel mill production will accelerate, and overall molten iron production is expected to gradually recover to around 240 tons. The production of hot - rolled coil will be affected to some extent. After the Spring Festival, the concentrated resumption of electric furnace production will lead to a rapid increase in rebar production. However, limited by the profit situation, the production increase power is insufficient, and the overall production will be stable [13][14]. 3.2.2 Pay Attention to the Peak Rhythm in Mid - March - In February, steel inventory increased during the Spring Festival due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with significant differentiation among varieties. As of March 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 1,952 tons, an increase of 614 tons from the previous month and 91 tons more than the same period last year. Although the total inventory is at a relatively low level in recent lunar years, it is significantly higher year - on - year. The social inventory and mill inventory both increased. The social inventory reached 1,403 tons, an increase of 462 tons, mainly due to the stagnation of spot trading during the holiday and the passive inventory increase of traders. The mill inventory was 549 tons, an increase of 151 tons, mainly from the backlog of construction steel in the mills. The inventory of construction steel increased the most, with the total rebar inventory reaching 876 tons, an increase of 356 tons from the previous month and 15 tons more than the same period last year. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 472 tons, an increase of 112 tons from the previous month and 43 tons more than the same period last year, reaching the highest level in recent lunar years. After the Lantern Festival, the construction of downstream construction sites resumed, and the inventory of construction steel is expected to reach its peak in mid - March [19]. 3.2.3 The Intensity of Demand Recovery Remains to be Observed - In February, steel demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and all varieties declined. The national building materials trading volume decreased by 29.40% month - on - month. The rebar delivery volume in Hangzhou dropped to 10,300 tons, and the cement delivery volume dropped to 22 tons, both reaching new lows in recent years. The apparent demand data also weakened. The minimum apparent demand for rebar dropped to 41 tons, for hot - rolled coil to 247 tons, and for five major steel products to 537 tons. The terminal performance was generally weak, with real estate investment being poor. From January to February, the total land acquisition amount of key real estate enterprises decreased by 52.4% year - on - year, and the new construction and construction recovery were weak. The formation of physical work in infrastructure was lagging, with limited short - term pulling effect. In the manufacturing sector, passenger car sales decreased month - on - month, the production schedule of three major white goods in March decreased by 4% year - on - year, and external demand was affected by RMB appreciation and tariffs, with export orders declining marginally. In March, with the resumption of construction sites and the development of infrastructure, demand may improve marginally, but concerns in the real estate and manufacturing sectors still exist, and the intensity of the recovery remains to be observed [22]. 3.2.4 Positive and Steady Macroeconomic Policies, Real Estate Still at Risk - Fiscal policy continues to be positive, aiming at "increasing efforts and improving efficiency" by moderately expanding the expenditure scale, optimizing the expenditure structure, and providing direct support to key areas such as technological innovation, green transformation, and people's livelihood. Tax cuts and fee reductions are also continued to stimulate market vitality. Monetary policy remains prudent and flexible, emphasizing "precision and effectiveness". It maintains reasonable and sufficient liquidity, deepens the use of structural tools, and guides financial resources to weak links such as small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and rural revitalization. - In the real estate sector, policies focus on "stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and benefiting people's livelihood". On the supply side, the primary goal is to "ensure the completion of buildings", promoting the resumption of work on suspended projects through special loans. Land supply is optimized, with high - inventory cities reducing supply and population - inflow cities increasing the supply of affordable housing land. On the demand side, policies are implemented according to the local situation. Core cities relax purchase and loan restrictions, lower down - payment ratios and interest rates to support rigid and improved housing needs. Third - and fourth - tier cities issue subsidies and increase the housing provident fund quota to stimulate consumption. At the same time, pre - sale funds are strictly managed to prevent the debt risks of real estate enterprises, and high - quality real estate enterprises are supported in financing to promote the industry's transition to a new development model. - The government report emphasizes infrastructure as an important means to stabilize growth and adjust the structure, focusing on the coordinated development of traditional and new infrastructure. Traditional infrastructure focuses on short - board areas such as transportation, water conservancy, and energy, while new infrastructure targets 5G base stations, data centers, and charging piles. The report also emphasizes the optimization of investment structure, strict control of inefficient and repetitive construction, and the improvement of the whole - life - cycle efficiency of infrastructure. - In the manufacturing sector, it is emphasized to focus on the real economy, promoting the high - end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. R & D investment is increased, enterprises are supported to break through key core technologies, and "little giants" and advanced manufacturing clusters are cultivated. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [24][26][27][28]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Supply side: In February, steel supply was generally stable, with blast furnace production remaining stable and the electric furnace operating rate dropping sharply, leading to a significant decline in rebar production. Hot - rolled coil supply remained high due to the support of long - process production. In March, with the concentrated resumption of electric furnace production after the Spring Festival and the recovery of blast furnace operation after the Two Sessions, steel supply will gradually increase, but limited by the low profit margin of steel mills, the overall production increase power is insufficient, and the supply will show a moderate recovery trend. - Demand side: In February, steel demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday and weakened. The apparent consumption of rebar dropped to a minimum of 41 tons, showing typical seasonal off - peak characteristics. The terminal performance was generally weak, with real estate enterprises significantly reducing land acquisition, new construction and construction recovery being weak, and the formation of physical work in infrastructure being lagging. In the manufacturing sector, automobile sales declined month - on - month, and the production schedule of home appliances decreased. Looking forward to March, with the concentrated resumption of downstream construction sites and the development of infrastructure projects, demand will enter a seasonal recovery channel, but the drag from the real estate sector still exists, and concerns in the manufacturing sector remain. The intensity of demand recovery remains to be observed [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, steel prices declined slightly, with rebar performing stronger than hot-rolled coils. The overall spot steel trading volume was generally weak, with weak rigid demand and stable spot prices. This week, the data from Steel Union showed a slight increase in the production of the five major steel products, with an increase in rebar production and a shift to increased production of hot-rolled coils. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has seasonally recovered, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, with rebar inventory accumulating faster and shifting from mill inventory to social inventory. This week, the capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved, and the capital availability of housing construction projects is better than that of non-real estate projects. The "Two Sessions" released this year's economic growth target, with the GDP growth rate lower than last year, and the other targets remaining the same as in 2025. Since capital expenditure in the first quarter may fall short of expectations, the demand recovery situation remains to be seen. The pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the height of pig iron production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. Recently, overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and the resonance of oil and precious metals has driven up the prices of black metals. If the frictions intensify in the future, it may drive up the raw material costs of steel. However, after the Two Sessions, steel prices may still return to the fundamentals, and there is still pressure on steel prices. In the future, it is still necessary to pay attention to the pig iron production situation, downstream demand performance, overseas geopolitical frictions, and the results of the Two Sessions [6]. - Unilateral trading: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 contracts increased by 4 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC05 - RB05 decreasing by 7 yuan/ton, and RB01 - RB05 decreasing by 3 yuan/ton. The disk profits of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of rebar in different regions were stable or slightly increased. The basis of different contracts in different regions also varied, with the cheapest delivery product having a 05 basis of 65 yuan/ton, a 10 basis of 36 yuan/ton, and a 01 basis of 8 yuan/ton. The regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and the spot profits in different regions decreased to varying degrees [2]. 3.1.2 Hot-rolled Coils - **Futures**: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 contracts decreased by 3 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC01 - HC05 decreasing by 2 yuan/ton, and HC10 - HC01 increasing by 3 yuan/ton. The disk profits of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 17 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and 13 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions were stable or slightly increased. The basis of different contracts in different regions also varied, with the cheapest delivery product having a 05 basis of 21 yuan/ton, a 10 basis of 0 yuan/ton, and a 01 basis of -18 yuan/ton. The regional price differences changed to some extent, and the spot profits in different regions decreased to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3160 yuan, that of Beijing Jingye rebar was 3100 yuan, that of Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil was 3240 yuan, and that of Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil was 3140 yuan [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information**: In 2026, China plans to set the deficit ratio at around 4%, the target for the increase in the consumer price index at around 2%, issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, 300 billion yuan of special treasury bonds, and 4.4 trillion yuan of local special bonds. The expected economic growth target for 2026 is 4.5 - 5%. The government work report emphasizes strengthening anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition, and regulating "involutionary" competition [8][9]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends, basis, spreads, and disk profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils, as well as the cash profits of different steel products and the cost of electric furnaces in different regions [10][13][15][17][21][24][27][30][32][33][35][36][38][40][42][46][48][50][52][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The total steel inventory has turned to accumulation, but hot - rolled steel is still de - stocking. Seasonal factors have weakened the demand for building materials, and steel exports have declined in January. Although there is cost support, the weakening demand also limits the upward space of steel prices. [7] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 191.04 million tons (+2.82), and that of hot - rolled coil was 305.51 million tons (+1). The daily average hot - metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 229.5 million tons (+2.07), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel plants was 34.8% (-0.8). The profit of electric - arc furnace steel has declined, and the long - process steel profit remains profitable with an increase in hot - metal output. [4] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 174.96 million tons (-25.48), and that for hot - rolled coil was 308.34 million tons (-2.43). Building material demand has seasonally declined, while hot - rolled coil demand is affected by pre - holiday restocking in the manufacturing industry but shows a decline in apparent demand due to a rapid drop in exports in January. Domestic project investment has insufficient growth, the real estate market is still weak, but the manufacturing industry shows some positive trends, and the auto industry maintains strong growth. [4] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 16.08 million tons in total, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.83 million tons in total, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.77 million tons. [4] - **Outlook and Strategy**: The steel price will maintain a volatile trend with a short - term correction. It is recommended to short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and hold the short position of the ratio between hot - rolled coil and coking coal. It is advisable to wait and see for options. [7][9] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Price**: The rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3310 yuan (+10), and in Beijing was 3170 yuan (+20). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan (+10), and in Tianjin was 3190 yuan (+10). [13] - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric - arc furnace was - 44.58 yuan (-16.3), and the off - peak electricity profit was 120 yuan (-16). [32] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **International Trade**: Mexico imposed preliminary anti - dumping duties on hollow profiles from China and the US, and Vietnam made a positive final ruling on the sunset review of cold - rolled carbon steel coils from China. [34] - **Monetary Policy**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. [34] - **US Economy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations. [34] - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: In November, the new social financing was 248.88 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 39 billion yuan. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was - 2.60%. Real estate development investment was - 15.9%, manufacturing investment was +1.9%, and infrastructure investment was +0.13%. [39] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 229.5 million tons (+2.07), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel plants was 34.8% (-0.8). The small - sample production of rebar was 191.04 million tons (+2.82), and that of hot - rolled coil was 305.51 million tons (+1). [56][61] - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 174.96 million tons (-5.5% year - on - year in the lunar calendar, - 25.48 million tons month - on - month), and that for hot - rolled coil was 308.34 million tons (-1.7% year - on - year in the lunar calendar, - 2.43 million tons month - on - month). Building material demand has declined, and hot - rolled coil exports may decline in January. [64][76] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased in total, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price will continue to fluctuate. The supply of rebar is rising while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, but the policy expectation is relatively positive [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". The overall view is "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the steel price continues to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the spot price of steel products remained stable, and the supply - demand pattern of rebar was weakly stable. Construction steel mills resumed production, and the rebar output continued to rise with an unabated expectation of further increase, weakening the positive effect of the low - supply pattern. The rebar demand was weak, with high - frequency demand indicators falling and remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industries did not improve, and the demand continued the seasonal weakness, putting pressure on the steel price. Currently, the supply of rebar is increasing while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, and the relatively positive factor is the policy expectation. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

Section 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Section 2: Core View - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to continue its low - level oscillation. The current situation is weak, with supply at a low and stable level and demand weakly stable. Although there is cost support and policy expectations, the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price is still under pressure [1][2]. Section 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The overall view is low - level oscillation due to the weak real - world situation [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both stabilized. Supply has slightly increased but remains at a low level for the year, providing support for steel prices. However, with the improved profits of short - process steel mills, supply is expected to rise. Demand is weakly stable, with high - frequency demand indicators increasing month - on - month but still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Downstream industries have not improved, and off - season demand will continue to weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. The steel price is expected to continue its low - level oscillation, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Steel Industry**: Steel prices continue the low - level rebound trend. The basis of rebar is slightly stronger, while that of hot - rolled coil is weaker. Coke and coking coal prices may affect steel price stability. Steel mills are reducing production and inventory, but the inventory of plates is rising year - on - year. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the steel export licensing system on export expectations. When the hot metal production drops to a low level, one can participate in the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio of the January and May contracts [2] - **Iron Ore Industry**: The iron ore futures rebounded in a volatile manner. The global shipment volume of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded. Steel mills continued to cut production, hot metal production decreased, and the profitability of steel mills declined. The iron ore port inventory increased, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore decreased. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract of iron ore at low prices and conduct a positive spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of iron ore [5] - **Coke Industry**: Coke futures rebounded after over - falling. The second round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 12th, and there is still an expectation of further cuts in the short term. The supply side shows that the price reduction range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, and coking profits have been slightly repaired. The demand side indicates that steel mills are increasing maintenance due to losses, and the hot metal production has declined. The inventory of coke has increased in coking plants, ports, and steel mills, and the supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, bet on short - term rebound expectations, or conduct a reverse spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coke [6] - **Coking Coal Industry**: Coking coal futures rebounded after over - falling. The spot price in Shanxi continued to fall, and the Mongolian coal price decreased. The supply side shows that coal mine shipments have worsened, daily production has slightly declined, and coal mines are accumulating inventory again. The demand side indicates that steel mills are increasing maintenance due to losses, and the demand for replenishment is weak. The inventory has increased in steel mills, coal mines, washing plants, ports, coking enterprises, and ports. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, bet on short - term rebound expectations, or conduct a reverse spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coking coal [6] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different trends, with some prices increasing and some remaining stable. The profit of steel products showed a downward trend, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly [2] - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal production, the output of five major steel products, rebar production, and hot - rolled coil production all decreased. The output of electric - arc furnace rebar and converter rebar also declined [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased [2] - **Trading and Demand**: The trading volume of building materials increased, but the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil decreased [2] Iron Ore Industry - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt cost of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed [5] - **Supply**: The weekly global shipment volume and the 45 - port arrival volume of iron ore increased, but the monthly national import volume decreased [5] - **Demand**: The weekly daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume, the monthly national pig iron production, and the monthly national crude steel production all decreased [5] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased [5] Coke Industry - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coke varieties remained stable, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The coking profit decreased [6] - **Supply**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased, while that of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6] - **Demand**: The weekly hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants, and the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased slightly [6] - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased [6] Coking Coal Industry - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coking coal varieties remained stable, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The profit of sample coal mines decreased [6] - **Supply**: The weekly raw coal production and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly [6] - **Demand**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased, while that of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased [6]

Core Insights - The inventory of five major steel materials decreased by 2.45% to 13.32 million tons, the lowest since this year's Spring Festival, while production fell by 2.74% to 8.06 million tons, and apparent demand dropped to 8.40 million tons, marking a recent historical low with a decline of 2.83% [2][52][47] - The macroeconomic outlook has short-term support, but the fundamental industry data remains average, indicating a persistent weak supply-demand balance in the steel market [2][52] Supply Analysis - The weekly production of five major steel materials totaled 8.06 million tons, a decrease of 227,300 tons compared to the previous week [53] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points week-on-week and 1.92 percentage points year-on-year [67] - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.29 million tons, marking the first time it fell below 2.30 million tons since March of this year [36][67] Demand Analysis - Short-term macro expectations have temporarily settled, but the recovery of terminal real estate data is below expectations, particularly for rebar demand, which is at a historical low [28][77] - As of December 9, the funding availability rate for sample construction sites was 59.74%, with non-residential projects at 60.89% and residential projects at 54.13% [28][77] Inventory Analysis - The social inventory of steel in major cities was 9.41 million tons, down 368,100 tons week-on-week, while the inventory of steel mills increased by 33,100 tons to 3.90 million tons [30][79] - The total inventory of social and mill steel reached 13.32 million tons, a decrease of 33,500 tons, indicating a clear trend of seasonal destocking [30][79] Profitability Analysis - The average profit margin for saturated production increased by 5 yuan to -24 yuan per ton, while profits from electric arc furnaces rose to 84 yuan per ton, the highest in over four months [36][53] - The proportion of profitable independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 4.13% to 34.71%, while the proportion of loss-making mills decreased by 2.48% to 14.88%, the lowest in three and a half months [36][53] Price Movement - The main rebar contract RB2605 fluctuated weakly, closing at 3,069 yuan per ton, down 106 yuan week-on-week, with an open interest of 1.6021 million lots [54] - The hot-rolled coil contract HC2605 also showed a weak trend, closing at 3,238 yuan per ton, down 94 yuan week-on-week [56]