铁水转增，成本支撑带动钢价低位回升 ——周报20251117 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：螺纹钢高炉周产量200万吨（环比-4.10%，同比-14.51%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量313.66万吨（环比-1.41%，同比+1.67%）。螺纹钢和热卷均呈现减产。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费216.37万吨（环比-0.98%，同比-7.61%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 313.59万吨（环比-0.23%，同比-1.23%）。螺纹钢和热卷表需均呈现小幅下降。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存576.17万吨（环比-2.76%，同比+29.33%），热卷总库存 | 震荡偏强 | | | | 410.52万吨（环比+0.02%，同比+27 ...

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Rebar Weekly Report: Weak Demand, Rebar Prices Weakly Operating" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The latest inventory of the five major steel products decreased at a slower rate compared to the previous period, with hot-rolled coils slightly accumulating inventory and other varieties slightly reducing inventory [8] - The profitability rate of steel mills dropped to the lowest point of the year, and the production cut efforts of steel mills increased. In addition, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas became stricter, leading to limited production in some steel mills. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, and the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly [8] - The total apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased compared to the previous period. The demand is gradually shifting to the traditional off-season, which has an adverse impact on construction consumption. In addition, the latest single-month steel exports in October showed a year-on-year negative growth, and the impact of overseas trade barriers is gradually emerging, with demand likely to weaken marginally [8] - Recently, the profitability of steel mills has been poor, the steel profit has been continuously narrowing, and the production cut efforts of steel mills have increased. The steel supply has significantly contracted, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The downstream demand has shown a seasonal marginal weakening, with a decrease in demand from the construction and manufacturing industries. Coupled with the pressure on external demand exports, both supply and demand have weakened. Currently, the weak industrial supply-demand fundamentals have significantly suppressed rebar prices, and rebar prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8] - The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3080 [8] Summary by Section 1. Data Overview - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13% (a month-on-month increase of 1.38%), the capacity utilization rate was 87.81% (a month-on-month decrease of 0.80%), the profitability rate was 39.83% (a month-on-month decrease of 5.19%), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.3422 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 11,400 tons). The operating rate of 90 independent electric furnaces was 67.03% (a month-on-month decrease of 1.8%), the capacity utilization rate was 50.87% (a month-on-month decrease of 1.12%), and the scrap consumption was 249,900 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 13,100 tons). The total output of the five major steel products was 8.5674 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 185,500 tons), including 2.0854 million tons of rebar (a month-on-month decrease of 40,500 tons), 864,700 tons of wire rod (a month-on-month decrease of 33,400 tons), 3.1816 million tons of hot-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 54,000 tons), 838,400 tons of cold-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 21,300 tons), and 1.5973 million tons of medium and heavy plates (a month-on-month decrease of 36,300 tons) [10] - **Demand**: The average daily trading volume of traders (MA5) was 96,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 3,600 tons), the procurement volume of wire rods and rebars in Shanghai was 19,200 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1,100 tons), the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1852 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 136,700 tons), the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 3.143 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 175,900 tons), the apparent demand for wire rods was 888,300 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 102,300 tons), the apparent demand for cold-rolled coils was 853,200 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 36,900 tons), and the apparent demand for medium and heavy plates was 1.5994 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 43,100 tons) [10] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.0357 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 101,700 tons), including 5.9254 million tons of rebar (a month-on-month decrease of 99,800 tons), 4.1045 million tons of hot-rolled coils (a month-on-month increase of 38,600 tons), 1.3069 million tons of wire rod inventory (a month-on-month decrease of 23,800 tons), 1.745 million tons of cold-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 14,800 tons), and 1.9539 million tons of medium and heavy plates (a month-on-month decrease of 2,100 tons) [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market - As of November 7, 2025, the RB2601 contract closed at 3,034 yuan/ton, and the HC2601 contract closed at 3,245 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rebar was 156 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shanghai hot-rolled coils was 15 yuan/ton [17] - As of November 7, 2025, the RB01 - 05 contract spread closed at -63 yuan/ton, and the HC01 - 05 contract spread closed at -15 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai was -70 yuan/ton, and the screw - coil spread of the main contract was -211 yuan/ton [33]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The steel price is operating at a low level and faces short - term downward pressure. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. 3) Summary by Related Contents - **Production Situation**: In October, some steel mills in Northeast China resumed production, but their winter production enthusiasm was low. In Liaoning, 2 steel mills have resumed production, 1 will resume at the end of the month, 1 will resume in early November, and 2 are undetermined; 1 in Jilin has resumed production, and 2 in Heilongjiang have both resumed production. Additionally, 3 Liaoning steel mills will conduct another overhaul. Currently, the daily average output in Northeast China has decreased by 44,000 tons, and there are 19 overhauled production lines [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the average tax - free hot metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,245 yuan/ton, and the average tax - included billet cost was 3,003 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton. Compared with the factory price of common billets of 2,940 yuan/ton on October 22, steel mills had an average loss of 63 yuan/ton [3]. - **Funds in Construction Projects**: As of October 21, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.06%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 52.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points [3]. - **Market Performance**: The finished steel rebounded slightly yesterday, with the price still at the current level and little fluctuation. The industry's fundamentals are relatively calm, and demand restricts price increases. If there are no incremental policies in relevant meetings, steel prices will still face pressure [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was strong, but the prices of finished steel products fluctuated downward. The demand for steel is currently weak, and although Trump's remarks caused short - term disturbances to commodity prices, the long - term trend of steel prices has not changed fundamentally in the context of a gradually loosening macro - environment. In the short term, the weak demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the intensity and direction of policies issued around the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [9][10]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to make an overall plan for the economic development in the next five years, which is of great guiding significance for the macro - economic trend. Other factors such as the meeting's stance and the progress of Sino - US negotiations also need to be focused on [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cost End - The profit of hot - rolled blast furnaces was - 46 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of hot - rolled coils shrank rapidly. The spot price was about 136 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a neutral - to - low valuation [7]. 3.2 Supply End - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 4.4% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.7%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, remaining above 2.4 million tons during the peak season. The profit of blast furnaces for producing rebar in East China remained around - 51 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit declined significantly. The loss of electric - arc furnace plants expanded, with the off - peak electricity profit at - 60 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Demand End - This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 205,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.1% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. The slow recovery of demand led to an insignificant inventory reduction effect. The growth rate of export demand decreased significantly, which may further drag down the demand for sheet metal [8]. 3.4 Inventory - This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.1919 million tons, rising for five consecutive weeks and reaching the highest level in the past five years [9]. 3.5 Transaction Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with no specific profit - loss ratio, recommended cycle, core driving logic, recommended grade, or first - proposed time provided [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content - **Production Data**: According to weekly data from Steel Union, rebar production decreased by 22,400 tons to 2.0116 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 14,500 tons to 3.2184 million tons, and the total production of the five major steel products decreased by 63,600 tons to 8.5695 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 185,900 tons to 6.4105 million tons, hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 62,900 tons to 4.1919 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 184,600 tons to 15.8226 million tons [1]. - **Apparent Demand Data**: Rebar apparent demand increased by 737,400 tons to 2.1975 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 245,800 tons to 3.1555 million tons, and the total apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 1.3996 million tons to 8.7541 million tons [1]. - **Steel Mill Operating Rate**: The operating rate of 29 section steel production enterprises in Tangshan was 40%, and the capacity utilization rate was 47.48%. It is expected that some section steel mills in Tangshan will resume production on October 17th, and the operating rate will rise significantly [1]. - **Sales Policy**: On October 16th, Guangdong Zhongnan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Yangchun New Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., and Zhuhai Yueyufeng Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. issued a notice on price - limited sales [1]. - **Market Situation**: After reaching a new low yesterday, steel products rebounded slightly. In terms of variety fundamentals, rebar's apparent demand increased rapidly and there was a slight inventory reduction, so its fundamentals were stronger than that of hot - rolled coil. Overall, the demand for steel products remained sluggish, with no improvement in the real estate market and a slowdown in the automotive and home appliance industries. Recent Sino - US trade frictions also led to a negative macro - market. Under the resonance of macro and fundamentals, steel prices were running weakly [1].

Group 1 - Report's investment rating for the industry: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Steel prices are running at a low level, facing short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. The industry fundamentals remain sluggish, and steel prices are weakly operating under the resonance of macro and fundamentals [1][3] Group 3 - Summary based on related content: - Policy and international situation: The US threatens to impose a 100% tariff on China, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds that this is not the right way to get along with China. Hebei Province issues measures to support key industries' environmental performance, and steel industry leading enterprises may not reduce or reduce the proportion of crude steel production [2] - Cost and profit: The average hot - metal cost of Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills is 2247 yuan/ton, and the average billet cost is 3006 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the billet price on October 15th, the average loss per ton of steel mills is 86 yuan [2] - Real estate data: The total sales of 17 key real - estate enterprises from January to September 2025 are 1055.724 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. In September, the sales are 113.85 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 1.7% [2] - Engineering machinery data: In September, the monthly operating rate of China's main engineering machinery products is 55.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.08 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The operating rate of excavators is 54.5% [2] - Market performance: Steel prices continued to hit new lows yesterday. Rebar is approaching 3000, and hot - rolled coils are approaching 3200 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2601 is weak shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is also weak shock. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the steel price seeking the bottom weakly due to poor fundamentals [1] - The rebar fundamentals continue to be weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are not good, and it is expected that the steel price will continue the trend of seeking the bottom weakly [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term is weak shock, the medium - term is shock, and the intraday is weak shock. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and the steel price is seeking the bottom weakly [1] Market Driving Logic - The rebar fundamentals continue to be weak. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, supply is shrinking to a low level, but the kinetic energy of production reduction in the peak season is doubtful, and the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is limited. The demand for rebar is also poor, high - frequency indicators are declining weakly, and the downstream shows no improvement. The peak season is expected to be lackluster. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are poor, and the steel price is expected to continue the trend of seeking the bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the rebar supply - demand data released by Steel Union today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is improving, and steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line and the demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a weak bias". The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is improving and steel prices are stabilizing with fluctuations [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Futures price increases have boosted the market, and steel spot prices rose slightly on the weekend with average trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved. Rebar production has been continuously declining, but the intensity of production cuts needs to be monitored, and inventory is at a high level for the same period, so the positive effect of supply contraction is not strong. However, rebar demand has improved during the peak season, with high - frequency indicators rising from low levels, but the downstream industries have not improved, and the quality of the peak season is still in doubt. In general, the fundamentals of rebar have marginally improved under the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain. The improvement intensity needs to be monitored. The relatively positive factor is the increase in costs. Under the game of multiple and short factors, steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The construction steel market is expected to experience short-term price fluctuations with a slight upward trend due to narrowing profits for steel mills, reduced production, and improved market expectations [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent profit margins for steel mills have decreased, leading to a slight reduction in construction steel production [1] - The support from raw materials continues, contributing to the market's stability [1] - The increase in rebar inventory has slowed down, indicating a potential balance in supply and demand [1] Group 2: Demand and Pricing Outlook - Some market traders have reported a slight increase in terminal procurement compared to previous periods, although overall demand remains at a seasonal low [1] - If demand does not improve, steel prices may revert to a fluctuating pattern [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as having an oscillatory and weakly downward trend [3] Report's Core View - The steel price of finished products is expected to run in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner, with supply pressure increasing after enterprises resume production post - parade, while downstream demand remains weak [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Construction Funds and Steel Mill Costs - As of September 2, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points. The average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton week - on - week, resulting in an average loss of 21 yuan/ton compared with the ex - factory price of 2,950 yuan/ton on September 3 [2] Steel Mill Orders - As of August 31, the steel billet hand - held order volume of sample steel mills was 1.267 million tons, a 27% increase (270,000 tons) from the previous survey. In terms of order receipt, domestic trade orders were 668,000 tons, an increase of 128,000 tons, and direct export orders were 599,000 tons, an increase of 142,000 tons [2] Construction Site Construction Dynamics - A total of 66 traders, sub - terminals, and downstream enterprises in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region stopped work from late August to September 4, and are expected to resume work on the afternoon of September 3 and September 4 [2] Market Performance of Finished Products - Finished products continued to be weak yesterday. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils closed with small negative lines, with the overall center of gravity shifting downward [2]