1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is improving, and steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line and the demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a weak bias". The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is improving and steel prices are stabilizing with fluctuations [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Futures price increases have boosted the market, and steel spot prices rose slightly on the weekend with average trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved. Rebar production has been continuously declining, but the intensity of production cuts needs to be monitored, and inventory is at a high level for the same period, so the positive effect of supply contraction is not strong. However, rebar demand has improved during the peak season, with high - frequency indicators rising from low levels, but the downstream industries have not improved, and the quality of the peak season is still in doubt. In general, the fundamentals of rebar have marginally improved under the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain. The improvement intensity needs to be monitored. The relatively positive factor is the increase in costs. Under the game of multiple and short factors, steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The construction steel market is expected to experience short-term price fluctuations with a slight upward trend due to narrowing profits for steel mills, reduced production, and improved market expectations [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent profit margins for steel mills have decreased, leading to a slight reduction in construction steel production [1] - The support from raw materials continues, contributing to the market's stability [1] - The increase in rebar inventory has slowed down, indicating a potential balance in supply and demand [1] Group 2: Demand and Pricing Outlook - Some market traders have reported a slight increase in terminal procurement compared to previous periods, although overall demand remains at a seasonal low [1] - If demand does not improve, steel prices may revert to a fluctuating pattern [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as having an oscillatory and weakly downward trend [3] Report's Core View - The steel price of finished products is expected to run in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner, with supply pressure increasing after enterprises resume production post - parade, while downstream demand remains weak [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Construction Funds and Steel Mill Costs - As of September 2, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points. The average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton week - on - week, resulting in an average loss of 21 yuan/ton compared with the ex - factory price of 2,950 yuan/ton on September 3 [2] Steel Mill Orders - As of August 31, the steel billet hand - held order volume of sample steel mills was 1.267 million tons, a 27% increase (270,000 tons) from the previous survey. In terms of order receipt, domestic trade orders were 668,000 tons, an increase of 128,000 tons, and direct export orders were 599,000 tons, an increase of 142,000 tons [2] Construction Site Construction Dynamics - A total of 66 traders, sub - terminals, and downstream enterprises in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region stopped work from late August to September 4, and are expected to resume work on the afternoon of September 3 and September 4 [2] Market Performance of Finished Products - Finished products continued to be weak yesterday. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils closed with small negative lines, with the overall center of gravity shifting downward [2]

Group 1 - The black metal sector in the domestic futures market is mostly in the red, with rebar futures showing a downward trend and a decline of 2.27% [1] - Rebar futures opened at 3150.0 yuan/ton, with a high of 3161.00 yuan and a low of 3101.00 yuan during the day [1] - Supply pressure is increasing due to a rebound in rebar production to a yearly high, while downstream demand has not shown significant improvement [1] Group 2 - Current market conditions for rebar are weak, with no restrictions on steel production mentioned in the 2025-2026 growth policy, leading to sustained high supply levels [2] - Although there is a slight recovery in construction material demand, overall total demand is expected to show a clear pattern of high early in the year and low later on [2] - Steel mills are experiencing an increase in inventory, and despite the traditional peak season approaching, rebar demand remains weak, leading to continued pressure on prices [2]

1. Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are in a weak downward trend. The spread between the October and January contracts of rebar has stopped falling and risen, and the near - month rebar has turned from weak to strong. The spread between the October and January contracts of hot - rolled coils has continued to strengthen. The difference in the month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils is due to the widening of the near - month spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has fallen from a maximum of 290 to around 250 yuan. In August, the supply of rebar increased while demand decreased, especially the demand dropped significantly, which affected the weakening of steel prices, and the decline of rebar was greater than that of hot - rolled coils. - Last week's data showed that rebar production decreased again, and apparent demand stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will decline from a high level. From the perspective of total apparent demand, last week's demand data showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding, but it was still at an off - season level. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering that steel demand has not stalled and coking coal has not resumed production, it is expected that steel prices will remain in a high - level volatile pattern, but recently steel prices are weaker than iron ore and coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed a downward trend. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3361 to 3348 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 20 yuan to 3010 yuan, and the price of slab billets remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan to 3345 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 22 yuan to 133 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average pig - iron output increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 to 878.1 tons, with a growth rate of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 5.8 to 214.7 tons, a decrease of 2.6%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.7 to 325.2 tons, an increase of 3.1% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 to 1441.0 tons, with a growth rate of 1.8%. Rebar inventory increased by 19.8 to 607.0 tons, a growth rate of 3.4%, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 to 361.4 tons, a growth rate of 1.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 9.1 tons, with a growth rate of 9.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 22.0 to 853.0 tons, a growth rate of 2.6%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 4.9 to 194.8 tons, a growth rate of 2.6%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 6.5 to 321.3 tons, a growth rate of 2.1% [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the 2601 contract of iron ore showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the global shipment volume of iron ore has declined from a high level on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume in the future will increase periodically. - On the demand side, last week, the profit margin of steel mills was at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and pig - iron output increased slightly at a high level and remained at around 240,000 tons per day. It is expected that pig - iron output will decrease this week due to production in Tangshan. From the data of five major steel products, it can be seen that the apparent demand of downstream products has increased on a month - on - month basis recently, which supports steel prices. - In terms of inventory, port inventory has decreased slightly, the port clearance volume has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore has decreased on a month - on - month basis. Looking forward, pig - iron output will decline slightly at a high level at the end of August. The market sentiment was overdrawn by the futures price increase on Monday. Currently, the fundamentals are difficult to drive a significant increase, so the price rose on Tuesday and then fell back. After the military parade, steel mills will resume production, and pig - iron output will increase, which will support raw materials. Coupled with the relatively low port inventory compared to the same period last year and the high daily consumption of steel mills, the futures price still has a basis for rebound. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and an iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread is recommended for arbitrage [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore powders has increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased from 19.2 to 40.7 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 112.2%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at - 43.0, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.0, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 22.0 [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of most iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the price of Jinbuba powder decreased by 2 yuan to 725.0 yuan/ton. The price of the Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap decreased by 0.3 to 101.7 dollars/ton, and the price of the Platts 62% Fe decreased by 1.1 to 102.0 dollars/ton [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 83.3 to 2393.3 tons, a decrease of 3.4%. The weekly global shipment volume decreased by 90.8 to 3315.8 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 8.9 to 325.7 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The national monthly pig - iron output decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude - steel output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8 tons, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 46.5 to 13798.68 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 to 9065.5 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [3]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints Coke - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot price of coke has risen after the seventh - round price increase was implemented, and the port trade quotation has followed the increase. On the supply side, due to the implementation of the price increase, the coking profit has improved, and the start - up rate of coking enterprises has increased slightly. On the demand side, the pig - iron output from blast furnaces has fluctuated at a high level, and downstream demand still has resilience. It is expected that pig - iron output will decline slightly in August due to production restrictions in Tangshan. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants has started to accumulate, the port inventory has decreased slightly, and the steel - mill inventory has decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to tight supply - demand and logistics factors, downstream steel mills still have a need to replenish inventory, and the arrival of goods is delayed, so they finally accepted the seventh - round price increase of coke. Yesterday, the futures price decreased, and the futures price has a slight premium for wet - quenched coke but is at a discount to the warehouse - receipt cost of dry - quenched coke, and the hedging space has narrowed. Production restrictions in Tangshan are beneficial to finished steel products, and Shandong and Henan also have production - restriction requirements for coking. The short - term supply - demand tightness will be maintained, but as the coking profit improves, the supply of coke will gradually become looser. The futures price has recently followed the decline of coking coal. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke is recommended. Pay attention to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. Coking Coal - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coking - coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot auction price is stable to weak, and the Mongolian - coal quotation has decreased slightly. On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal - mine production - suspension rectifications, the coal - mine start - up rate has decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and shipments have slowed down. Coal mines are selling at a reduced profit, the market supply - demand situation has eased, some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, and the price of imported Mongolian coal has followed the decline of futures. Due to the relatively high price, downstream users have been cautious about replenishing inventory recently. On the demand side, the start - up rate of coking has increased slightly, the pig - iron output from downstream blast furnaces has fluctuated at a high level, and the downstream demand for inventory replenishment has slowed down. Considering the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the military parade, pig - iron output will decline periodically at the end of August. In terms of inventory, coal mines, ports, and steel mills have slightly increased their inventory, while coal - washing plants and coking plants have slightly decreased their inventory. The overall inventory has decreased slightly from a medium level. The spot market has stabilized after a slight correction. The approaching delivery of the near - month contract exerts some pressure on the 09 contract, and the far - month valuation still has a premium over the near - month Mongolian - coal warehouse receipt. The mine accident in Fujian and the production - suspension of some coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi have triggered expectations of production restrictions, which drove the price increase on Monday, but the spot market is still running weakly and stably, and the price has given back the previous rebound in the past two trading days. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended. Pay attention to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Prices and Spreads - For coke, the 09 - contract price decreased from 1610 to 1601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64%, and the 01 - contract price decreased from 1681 to 1670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. For coking coal, the 09 - contract price decreased from 1031 to 1012 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9%, and the 01 - contract price decreased from 1161 to 1154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 65.5 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The raw - coal output of sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 860.4 tons, with a growth rate of 0.4%, and the clean - coal output increased by 3.4 to 442.7 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8% [6]. Demand - The weekly pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 65.5 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.2 to 888.6 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.9 to 64.4 tons, a growth rate of 3.04%, the steel - mill coke inventory decreased by 0.2 to 609.6 tons, a decrease of 0.0%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.5 to 214.6 tons, a decrease of 0.24%. The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 5.7 to 117.6 tons, a growth rate of 5.1%, the coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 10.5 to 966.4 tons, a decrease of 1.1%, and the steel - mill coking - coal inventory increased by 6.5 to 812.3 tons, a growth rate of 0.8% [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are accumulating and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - Due to weak market sentiment, poor supply - demand pattern, and weak demand in the off - season, steel prices are under pressure. However, the recent increase in cost limits the downward space, and it is expected that steel prices will continue the weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and intraday trends are oscillating weakly, the medium - term trend is oscillating. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has weakened, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is poor. Supply has shrunk but the profit per ton is okay with limited production reduction space. Demand continues the seasonal weakness, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and the weak demand restricts steel prices. Although the cost has increased recently, the downward space is limited. Overall, steel prices are expected to continue the weak operation trend [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term price of finished steel products fluctuates greatly and runs weakly in a volatile manner. Whether the adjustment of real estate policies can drive the price up needs further observation, and the recent steel price trend is greatly affected by raw materials [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Steel Production and Inventory - In mid - August, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.115 million tons, with a daily output increase of 2.0% month - on - month. The steel inventory was 15.67 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons or 4.0% compared with the previous ten - day period [3]. Real Estate Policy - On August 25, six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust local real estate policies, including reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident funds, optimizing personal housing credit, and improving personal housing property tax [3]. Shipbuilding Orders - From August 18th to August 24th, global shipyards received 16 + 4 new ship orders. Chinese shipyards received 8 + 3 new ship orders, South Korean shipyards received 6 new ship orders, and US shipyards also got relevant new ship orders [3]. Price Movement Reasons - The price of finished steel products rebounded yesterday. On one hand, the large increase in coking coal prices drove the follow - up rise of finished products. On the other hand, the optimization and adjustment of real estate policies in Shanghai led to fluctuations in the A - share real estate sector, indirectly driving up the price of finished products [3]. Later Focus - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Rebar 2601 contract fell 2.05%. On Friday night, affected by coking enterprise production restrictions, coking coal drove up steel prices. The black market outlook remains bullish, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. [5] - The operation suggestions are to take a bullish approach on dips for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell deep out - of - the - money put options opportunistically. [5][39] Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Focuses on the daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract [8] Spot Price - As of August 22, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Tianjin, it was 3,260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [12][15] Basis and Spread - Involves the rebar basis (active contract) [18] Important Market Information - On August 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term. [19] - The vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association stated that the steel industry will continue its stable and positive trend. Domestic steel consumption has decreased from nearly 1 billion tons to 892 million tons in recent years and is expected to continue to decline slowly but will remain above 800 million tons before 2030. [19] Supply - side Situation - Covers the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan and rebar production [20][22] Demand - side Situation - As of July 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 50.6, a 2.2% month - on - month decrease; the purchasing managers' index for the steel circulation industry was 49.8, a 4.2% month - on - month increase. [27] - This section also includes data on construction new starts, construction and completion floor areas, commercial housing sales, and Shanghai's terminal wire and screw purchases. [29][30][32] Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,444.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 62.63 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 341.04 million tons, a decrease of 5.76 million tons. At 45 ports, the total inventory was 13,845.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.93 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 325.74 million tons, a decrease of 8.93 million tons. [35][36] - In July, the national raw coal output was 38,099 million tons, the lowest since May 2024, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.52%. [36] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.42%, an increase of 0.08%; the average daily coke output was 65.45 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons; the coke inventory was 64.37 million tons, an increase of 1.86 million tons; the total coking coal inventory was 966.41 million tons, a decrease of 10.47 million tons; the available days of coking coal were 11.1 days, a decrease of 0.13 days. [36] - There are rumors that Shandong coking enterprises will limit production by 30% - 50% from August 16 to early September. Currently, a few Shandong coking enterprises have further increased production restrictions to 20% - 30%, and the restriction ratio will continue to rise. [5][36] - In July 2025, global crude steel production was 150 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%; from January to July, it was 1.0862 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. China's steel output in July was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. [5][36] - In mid - August, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 400,000 tons (5.0% increase); compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 1.72 million tons (16.9% decrease). Different regions had different inventory changes. [37] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 5.89%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.25%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.95%; the steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year increase of 63.64%; the average daily hot metal output was 2.4075 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. [37] - The PPA data shows that the iron ore exports from Port Hedland in July 2025 decreased to 45.9693 million tons from 54.5848 million tons in June. [37] 后市展望 (Outlook) - The outlook for the black market remains bullish, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. [38] Operation Strategy - For single - side trading, take a bullish approach on dips. - For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. - For options, sell deep out - of - the - money put options opportunistically. [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [2]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [2]. - In the future, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main rebar RB2510 contract fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.6365 million lots, an increase of 8,300 lots. The main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract also fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.2918 million lots, a decrease of 136,700 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved down. As of August 14, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,290 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved down. As of August 14, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,420 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar RB2510 contract against the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 131 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract against the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 78 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 243 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 118,900 tons year - on - year [21]. - The weekly output of the five major steel products totaled 871,630 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons week - on - week. Among them, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline [21]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [21]. 2.2 Demand - The State Council has approved a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan. The project has officially started, and the future demand for steel in infrastructure construction is promising. In addition, the truce period for Sino - US tariffs has been extended by 90 days, and the tariffs on China remain the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions, and there are expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the path for the realization of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [32]. 2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel in major cities across the country was 990,840 tons, an increase of 28,340 tons week - on - week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 425,130 tons, an increase of 12,270 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.41597 million tons, an increase of 40,610 tons week - on - week. The overall inventory is at a low level for the same period, and steel mills are in a relative de - stocking stage, transferring inventory downstream. However, the overall de - stocking trend has ended, and inventory has begun to accumulate [38]. 2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [46]. - The supply and circulation of scrap steel were tight this week, and price support remained. However, the improvement in downstream terminal demand during the off - season was limited, and the upward trend of steel prices gradually slowed down. The spreads between rebar and scrap steel and between hot - rolled coils and scrap steel first expanded and then narrowed, and the profitability of steel mills also began to decline slightly. As a result, the daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, as of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country increased by 0.49% to 57.39%, and the average operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39% [48]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials moved up. Among them, the price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,089 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,420 yuan/ton [56]. Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 40,610 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [59]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [59].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for rebar 2510 are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways with a downward bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level at the MA20 line. The core logic is that strong raw materials drive the steel price to fluctuate higher [2]. - The rebar market fundamentals continue to show seasonal weakness. Although both supply and demand have increased, the fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are defined, and the view reference is to focus on the MA20 line support. The core logic is the strong raw materials driving up the steel price. Also, the calculation rules for price changes are provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The rebar fundamentals have seasonal weakness. Supply has increased significantly as construction steel mills are actively resuming production. Demand has also improved, mainly due to the release of speculative demand, but the improvement's sustainability is questionable. Supply disturbances support the strong rise of raw materials, raising costs and driving up the steel price. However, the weak fundamentals and the co - increase of supply and demand put pressure on the steel price, resulting in a sideways trend [3].