钢材：钢材转向累库，钢价延续震荡 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量191.04万吨（+2.82），热卷小样本产量305.51万吨（+1）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日均 229.5万吨（+2.07），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率34.8%（-0.8）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3385 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-44.58元/吨左右，谷电成本3220（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润 +120元/吨。近期废钢供到货继续增长，电炉成本出现上涨，导致电炉利润下滑，而近期铁水复产，电炉产能利用率 小幅下降，废钢日耗在50.53万吨，预计后续仍有可能陆续减产；长流程钢利润维持盈利，铁水产量本周继续增加。 需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price will continue to fluctuate. The supply of rebar is rising while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, but the policy expectation is relatively positive [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". The overall view is "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the steel price continues to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the spot price of steel products remained stable, and the supply - demand pattern of rebar was weakly stable. Construction steel mills resumed production, and the rebar output continued to rise with an unabated expectation of further increase, weakening the positive effect of the low - supply pattern. The rebar demand was weak, with high - frequency demand indicators falling and remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industries did not improve, and the demand continued the seasonal weakness, putting pressure on the steel price. Currently, the supply of rebar is increasing while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, and the relatively positive factor is the policy expectation. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

Section 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Section 2: Core View - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to continue its low - level oscillation. The current situation is weak, with supply at a low and stable level and demand weakly stable. Although there is cost support and policy expectations, the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price is still under pressure [1][2]. Section 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The overall view is low - level oscillation due to the weak real - world situation [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both stabilized. Supply has slightly increased but remains at a low level for the year, providing support for steel prices. However, with the improved profits of short - process steel mills, supply is expected to rise. Demand is weakly stable, with high - frequency demand indicators increasing month - on - month but still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Downstream industries have not improved, and off - season demand will continue to weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. The steel price is expected to continue its low - level oscillation, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Steel Industry**: Steel prices continue the low - level rebound trend. The basis of rebar is slightly stronger, while that of hot - rolled coil is weaker. Coke and coking coal prices may affect steel price stability. Steel mills are reducing production and inventory, but the inventory of plates is rising year - on - year. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the steel export licensing system on export expectations. When the hot metal production drops to a low level, one can participate in the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio of the January and May contracts [2] - **Iron Ore Industry**: The iron ore futures rebounded in a volatile manner. The global shipment volume of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded. Steel mills continued to cut production, hot metal production decreased, and the profitability of steel mills declined. The iron ore port inventory increased, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore decreased. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract of iron ore at low prices and conduct a positive spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of iron ore [5] - **Coke Industry**: Coke futures rebounded after over - falling. The second round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 12th, and there is still an expectation of further cuts in the short term. The supply side shows that the price reduction range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, and coking profits have been slightly repaired. The demand side indicates that steel mills are increasing maintenance due to losses, and the hot metal production has declined. The inventory of coke has increased in coking plants, ports, and steel mills, and the supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, bet on short - term rebound expectations, or conduct a reverse spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coke [6] - **Coking Coal Industry**: Coking coal futures rebounded after over - falling. The spot price in Shanxi continued to fall, and the Mongolian coal price decreased. The supply side shows that coal mine shipments have worsened, daily production has slightly declined, and coal mines are accumulating inventory again. The demand side indicates that steel mills are increasing maintenance due to losses, and the demand for replenishment is weak. The inventory has increased in steel mills, coal mines, washing plants, ports, coking enterprises, and ports. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, bet on short - term rebound expectations, or conduct a reverse spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of coking coal [6] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different trends, with some prices increasing and some remaining stable. The profit of steel products showed a downward trend, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly [2] - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal production, the output of five major steel products, rebar production, and hot - rolled coil production all decreased. The output of electric - arc furnace rebar and converter rebar also declined [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased [2] - **Trading and Demand**: The trading volume of building materials increased, but the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil decreased [2] Iron Ore Industry - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt cost of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed [5] - **Supply**: The weekly global shipment volume and the 45 - port arrival volume of iron ore increased, but the monthly national import volume decreased [5] - **Demand**: The weekly daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume, the monthly national pig iron production, and the monthly national crude steel production all decreased [5] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased [5] Coke Industry - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coke varieties remained stable, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The coking profit decreased [6] - **Supply**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased, while that of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6] - **Demand**: The weekly hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants, and the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased slightly [6] - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased [6] Coking Coal Industry - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some coking coal varieties remained stable, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The profit of sample coal mines decreased [6] - **Supply**: The weekly raw coal production and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly [6] - **Demand**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased, while that of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased [6]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华安期货投研 核心观点： 本周五大材库存继续环降 2.45%至 1332.09 万吨，创今年春节以来最低，产量环比减少 2.74%至 806.22 万吨，表观需求续降至 839.72 万吨为近年来同期最低位，环比降幅达 2.83%。具体来看，螺纹钢周产 量环降 5.56%，库存降幅达 4.81%，表需降幅扩大至 6.4%；线材表需降幅收窄至 3.94%；热卷表需环比 降幅同样收窄至 0.92%，其钢厂库存环增 5.14%；中厚板表需环降逾 4%；仅冷轧表需环增 2.54%，其 产量亦增加 0.92%。 目前，宏观短期有预期支撑，但基本面产业数据一般，钢材供需双弱格局不变，其中螺纹减产加速，供 需关系有所改善，叠加库存持续下降，螺纹支撑增强。热卷供需数据变化不大，供需宽松，库存高位压 力不减。综合来看，上下驱动均不强，难走较大趋势行情，预计钢价震荡偏弱走势。 后市展望：震荡偏弱 | 钢材 | 观点 | 分析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 五大材产量 | 偏躲 | 本周 Mysteel 统计分五大材产量周度产量合计为806. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of rebar 2601 is weak and volatile, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends showing a weak and volatile pattern, due to the weak and stable supply - demand pattern and low - level fluctuations of steel prices [1]. - The steel price is expected to continue the low - level volatile operation, as the fundamentals have no substantial improvement with increasing supply and seasonally weakening demand, despite short - term positive factors [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all weak and volatile, and the core logic is the weak and stable supply - demand pattern and low - level fluctuations of steel prices [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Both supply and demand of rebar have increased. Rebar production has rebounded from a low level, and inventory is relatively high, so the supply pressure remains. Meanwhile, rebar demand has improved, but its sustainability is questionable, and the main downstream industries are still weak, with demand likely to weaken seasonally [2]. - Short - term positive factors such as position transfer and low warehouse receipts support the low - level rebound of steel prices. However, due to the seasonal weakening of demand and increasing supply, the fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the steel price is under pressure with limited upward driving force [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of steel products, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory, and the iron ore and coking coal and coke markets have cost support. The macro - environment has slightly improved risk appetite, and the third round of the fifth batch of central ecological environmental protection inspections has been launched, which may affect steel production [3][4][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The decline in rebar demand slowed down, and the decline in inventory increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils changed little, and the decrease in production slowed down the increase in total inventory. The end of the US government "shutdown" slightly improved market risk appetite, and prices were supported at low levels. Futures fluctuated, and most spot prices remained stable [9]. - Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions increased, and futures prices of related contracts also generally rose. The long and short positions of some contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads of some products changed. Rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [10]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production both decreased slightly. Rebar blast furnace and electric furnace production decreased. The blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly [13][15][17]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils improved compared with the previous period [27]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased slightly. The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions increased [31]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased more, and both factory and social inventories declined. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down, with social inventory stable and factory inventory rising slightly [36][40]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and land improved compared with the previous period. In the automotive market, in October 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][48]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly [53]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal increased month - on - month, and the port clearance volume continued to increase [58]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continued to rise, and the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises increased slightly [63]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines increased, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level [70]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased slightly [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of coking coal decreased, and the inventory of coking plants decreased slightly. The port inventory of coke decreased, and the inventory of coking plants remained at a low level [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continued [96]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread of rebar increased slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore increased [102][106].

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Rebar Weekly Report: Weak Demand, Rebar Prices Weakly Operating" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The latest inventory of the five major steel products decreased at a slower rate compared to the previous period, with hot-rolled coils slightly accumulating inventory and other varieties slightly reducing inventory [8] - The profitability rate of steel mills dropped to the lowest point of the year, and the production cut efforts of steel mills increased. In addition, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas became stricter, leading to limited production in some steel mills. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, and the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly [8] - The total apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased compared to the previous period. The demand is gradually shifting to the traditional off-season, which has an adverse impact on construction consumption. In addition, the latest single-month steel exports in October showed a year-on-year negative growth, and the impact of overseas trade barriers is gradually emerging, with demand likely to weaken marginally [8] - Recently, the profitability of steel mills has been poor, the steel profit has been continuously narrowing, and the production cut efforts of steel mills have increased. The steel supply has significantly contracted, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The downstream demand has shown a seasonal marginal weakening, with a decrease in demand from the construction and manufacturing industries. Coupled with the pressure on external demand exports, both supply and demand have weakened. Currently, the weak industrial supply-demand fundamentals have significantly suppressed rebar prices, and rebar prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8] - The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3080 [8] Summary by Section 1. Data Overview - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13% (a month-on-month increase of 1.38%), the capacity utilization rate was 87.81% (a month-on-month decrease of 0.80%), the profitability rate was 39.83% (a month-on-month decrease of 5.19%), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.3422 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 11,400 tons). The operating rate of 90 independent electric furnaces was 67.03% (a month-on-month decrease of 1.8%), the capacity utilization rate was 50.87% (a month-on-month decrease of 1.12%), and the scrap consumption was 249,900 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 13,100 tons). The total output of the five major steel products was 8.5674 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 185,500 tons), including 2.0854 million tons of rebar (a month-on-month decrease of 40,500 tons), 864,700 tons of wire rod (a month-on-month decrease of 33,400 tons), 3.1816 million tons of hot-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 54,000 tons), 838,400 tons of cold-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 21,300 tons), and 1.5973 million tons of medium and heavy plates (a month-on-month decrease of 36,300 tons) [10] - **Demand**: The average daily trading volume of traders (MA5) was 96,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 3,600 tons), the procurement volume of wire rods and rebars in Shanghai was 19,200 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1,100 tons), the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1852 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 136,700 tons), the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 3.143 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 175,900 tons), the apparent demand for wire rods was 888,300 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 102,300 tons), the apparent demand for cold-rolled coils was 853,200 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 36,900 tons), and the apparent demand for medium and heavy plates was 1.5994 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 43,100 tons) [10] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.0357 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 101,700 tons), including 5.9254 million tons of rebar (a month-on-month decrease of 99,800 tons), 4.1045 million tons of hot-rolled coils (a month-on-month increase of 38,600 tons), 1.3069 million tons of wire rod inventory (a month-on-month decrease of 23,800 tons), 1.745 million tons of cold-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 14,800 tons), and 1.9539 million tons of medium and heavy plates (a month-on-month decrease of 2,100 tons) [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market - As of November 7, 2025, the RB2601 contract closed at 3,034 yuan/ton, and the HC2601 contract closed at 3,245 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rebar was 156 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shanghai hot-rolled coils was 15 yuan/ton [17] - As of November 7, 2025, the RB01 - 05 contract spread closed at -63 yuan/ton, and the HC01 - 05 contract spread closed at -15 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai was -70 yuan/ton, and the screw - coil spread of the main contract was -211 yuan/ton [33]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The steel price is operating at a low level and faces short - term downward pressure. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. 3) Summary by Related Contents - **Production Situation**: In October, some steel mills in Northeast China resumed production, but their winter production enthusiasm was low. In Liaoning, 2 steel mills have resumed production, 1 will resume at the end of the month, 1 will resume in early November, and 2 are undetermined; 1 in Jilin has resumed production, and 2 in Heilongjiang have both resumed production. Additionally, 3 Liaoning steel mills will conduct another overhaul. Currently, the daily average output in Northeast China has decreased by 44,000 tons, and there are 19 overhauled production lines [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the average tax - free hot metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,245 yuan/ton, and the average tax - included billet cost was 3,003 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton. Compared with the factory price of common billets of 2,940 yuan/ton on October 22, steel mills had an average loss of 63 yuan/ton [3]. - **Funds in Construction Projects**: As of October 21, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.06%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 52.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points [3]. - **Market Performance**: The finished steel rebounded slightly yesterday, with the price still at the current level and little fluctuation. The industry's fundamentals are relatively calm, and demand restricts price increases. If there are no incremental policies in relevant meetings, steel prices will still face pressure [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was strong, but the prices of finished steel products fluctuated downward. The demand for steel is currently weak, and although Trump's remarks caused short - term disturbances to commodity prices, the long - term trend of steel prices has not changed fundamentally in the context of a gradually loosening macro - environment. In the short term, the weak demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the intensity and direction of policies issued around the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [9][10]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to make an overall plan for the economic development in the next five years, which is of great guiding significance for the macro - economic trend. Other factors such as the meeting's stance and the progress of Sino - US negotiations also need to be focused on [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cost End - The profit of hot - rolled blast furnaces was - 46 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of hot - rolled coils shrank rapidly. The spot price was about 136 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a neutral - to - low valuation [7]. 3.2 Supply End - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 4.4% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.7%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, remaining above 2.4 million tons during the peak season. The profit of blast furnaces for producing rebar in East China remained around - 51 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit declined significantly. The loss of electric - arc furnace plants expanded, with the off - peak electricity profit at - 60 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Demand End - This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 205,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.1% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. The slow recovery of demand led to an insignificant inventory reduction effect. The growth rate of export demand decreased significantly, which may further drag down the demand for sheet metal [8]. 3.4 Inventory - This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.1919 million tons, rising for five consecutive weeks and reaching the highest level in the past five years [9]. 3.5 Transaction Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with no specific profit - loss ratio, recommended cycle, core driving logic, recommended grade, or first - proposed time provided [11].