美元兑加元可能处于"楔形"模式的形成过程中。相对强弱指数(RSI)低于60，该动能指标也显示卖方压 力较大。上行方面，初步阻力位可关注1.3878附近，若能突破可能缓解短期下行压力；下行方面，重要 支撑则关注1.3758水平，若有效跌破该支撑，可能会确认下行趋势的延续，进一步目标看向1.3375下 方。 周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，美元兑加元最新价报1.3856，涨幅0.02%，开盘价为1.3855。牛津经济研究 院经济学家迈克尔·达文波特表示，核心通胀率依然过于坚挺，加拿大央行官员难以放心降息。 7月份，由于加拿大取消了消费者碳税，能源价格下降，总体通胀率降至1.7%。然而，达文波特表示， 食品、住房和耐用品价格上涨抵消了这一影响，耐用品价格上涨可能反映了关税的影响。他补充说，该 公司预计，随着美加关税争端的成本逐渐转嫁到零售价格，总体通胀率和核心通胀率（目前仍高于 3%）在短期内都将缓慢上升。达文波特预计，加拿大央行将在9月17日维持其政策利率在2.75%不变。 ...

产量：2025Q2 黄金产量 86.60 万盎司（26.94 吨），同比减少 3.3%，环比减少 0.9%。2025Q2 和 2025H1 黄金产量与上年同 期相比有所下降，主要原因是 Meadowbank（驯鹿迁徙时间长 于预期，影响了采矿和选矿作业）、Fosterville（品位和产量较 低）和 CanadianMalartic（产量较低）的产量较低，但 Macassa 和 LaRonde（品位较高）的产量较高，部分抵消了下降的产 量。 销量：2025Q2 黄金销量 84.68 万盎司（26.34 吨），同比减少 3.1%，环比增加 0.5%。 售价：2025Q2 黄金平均售价为 3288 美元/盎司（761.1 元/ 克），同比增长 40.4%，环比增长 13.7%。 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 1 日 [Table_Title] Agnico Eagle 2025Q2 年黄金产量分别环比减少 0.9%至 26.94 吨，净利润环比增长 31.2%至 10.69 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报 ...

一项民意调查显示，巴西总统卢拉的支持率九个月来首次超过不支持率，而当前巴西与美国的争端日益 加剧。7月初，美国总统特朗普表示，他将对巴西出口产品征收50%的关税，理由是巴西总统卢拉的右 翼竞争对手、前总统博索纳罗遭到"政治迫害"。卢拉政府进行了反击，称特朗普是不受欢迎的"皇帝"， 并称制裁是"不可接受的"。AtlasIntel/彭博的民意调查显示，卢拉的支持率为50.2%，高于两周前的 49.7%，这也是自去年10月以来，卢拉支持率首次超过不支持率。 在关税争端之际，巴西总统卢拉的支持率上升 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Germany is shifting from a dialogue-based approach to a more hardline stance against the U.S. due to escalating tariffs, aligning more closely with France's call for strong countermeasures [1][2][5] - The U.S. has announced a 30% tariff on EU goods starting August 1, with existing tariffs on steel and aluminum at 50% and on automobiles at 25%, significantly impacting EU exports [2][4] - Germany's economy, heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., is facing substantial pressure, with exports to the U.S. dropping 7.7% in May, marking a three-year low [4][5] Group 2 - The European Commission is considering activating a coercive tool to impose trade and investment restrictions on countries attempting to pressure EU member states economically [3] - Experts suggest that the U.S. may be overestimating its negotiating leverage, as many German high-end industrial products have no substitutes in the U.S. market [6] - Despite the hardening stance, both the U.S. and EU are still open to negotiations, with the EU planning to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if talks fail [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in Germany's stance towards the U.S. regarding trade tariffs, moving from a more conciliatory approach to a stronger opposition, aligning more closely with France's hardline position [1][4][5] - The U.S. has raised its demands in trade negotiations with the EU, seeking to impose minimum tariffs of 15% to 20% on EU goods, which could provoke retaliatory measures from the EU [2][3] - Germany's initial strategy was to quickly reach an agreement with the U.S., but recent developments have led to a unified stance among EU countries to prepare for potential retaliation against U.S. tariffs [4][5][6] Group 2 - The EU is still hopeful for a trade agreement with the U.S., but the increasing demands from the U.S. have made it difficult to reach a consensus [2][3] - Germany's economic dependence on the U.S. market has historically influenced its more moderate approach, but the current aggressive stance from the U.S. has forced Germany to consider stronger countermeasures [6][7] - The shift in Germany's position may encourage other EU member states to adopt a similar hardline approach, potentially leading to a more unified EU response against U.S. tariffs [7]

Oil Market Overview - Oil prices experienced a rebound in early trading, recovering from previous losses due to stronger-than-expected economic indicators from major oil-consuming nations and easing global trade tensions [1] - U.S. crude oil inventories saw a significant decline of 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million, surpassing the expected draw of 552,000 barrels, indicating robust refinery operations and heightened demand [2] - Despite the rise in crude prices, unexpected increases in gasoline and diesel inventories suggest a supply overhang in refined products [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's economic snapshot indicated a modest pickup in activity, but the overall outlook remained "neutral to slightly pessimistic," with businesses concerned about inflation from higher import tariffs [4] - Chinese economic data showed a slower second-quarter growth, but crude oil processing in June rose by 8.5% year on year, indicating strong fuel demand [5] Global Trade Outlook - President Trump expressed optimism regarding trade negotiations with major partners, hinting at progress with China, an imminent trade agreement with India, and potential deals with Europe [6] Sector Performance Gainers - Energy sector, particularly the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), is expected to benefit from rising oil prices as exploration and production companies increase output [9] - Steel producers, represented by the VanEck Vectors Steel ETF (SLX), are likely to gain from rising oil prices as they supply materials for oil drilling operations [10] Losers - Retail sector, represented by the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), may suffer as rising energy prices squeeze consumer spending [12] - Oil refiners, represented by the VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK), could face profitability challenges due to higher crude prices impacting their input costs [13] - Airlines, represented by the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS), are expected to perform better in a falling crude price scenario, as energy costs significantly affect their overall expenses [14] - Gold miners, represented by the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), may face pressure on operating margins due to higher oil prices, which constitute a significant portion of their production costs [15]

Group 1 - The core issue discussed is the escalation of the trade dispute between the EU and the US, particularly regarding the proposed 30% tariffs on EU imports by President Trump [1][2] - The EU is currently deliberating on how to respond to the US tariffs, with a focus on maintaining unity among member states while considering both negotiation and retaliation strategies [1][2] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has indicated a preference for negotiation, extending the suspension of retaliatory measures against US tariffs until August 1 [1][3] Group 2 - European Parliament's International Trade Committee Chairman Bernd Lange has expressed skepticism about the EU's approach, advocating for a stronger stance against Trump's tariffs, which he deems unreasonable [2] - French President Emmanuel Macron has emphasized the need for the EU to demonstrate its commitment to defending European interests, suggesting the use of all available tools, including countermeasures [2] - German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has stated that if negotiations fail, decisive countermeasures must be prepared to protect European jobs and businesses, although he does not advocate for immediate action [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada starting August 1, with Canada’s Prime Minister vowing to protect national interests and enhance global trade in response to the tariff threat [1] - In March, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico, leading Canada to retaliate with a 25% tariff on $155 billion CAD worth of U.S. goods, with immediate effect on $30 billion CAD worth of products [3] - The U.S. began imposing a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum on March 12, with a previous plan to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum being retracted [3] Group 2 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced that Canada would implement reciprocal measures by imposing a 25% tariff on U.S. imported cars that do not comply with the USMCA [5] - Carney emphasized the interdependence of the U.S. and Canadian automotive industries, noting that half of the parts in Canadian-made cars come from the U.S. [7] - In June, the U.S. raised tariffs on steel and aluminum from all trade partners to 50%, which Carney criticized as unreasonable and illegal, stating it would negatively impact both U.S. and Canadian industries [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn: The corn market is expected to be volatile and weak. The 9 - 1 spread is rapidly shrinking, and if the support is ineffective, the futures price may approach the 2200 range. Attention should be paid to the auction and transaction of imported corn [1]. - Soybean Meal: The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and weak. Due to concerns about tariff disputes and the upcoming USDA reports, the market lacks clear guidance, and the funds' attention has declined. Short - term unilateral participation and holding 91, 15 positive spreads are recommended [1]. - Edible Oils: The edible oil market is expected to be volatile and weak. The palm oil has led the rise, but the supply of domestic edible oils is generally loose, and the weak demand suppresses the spot market. Unilateral intraday trading is recommended [1]. - Eggs: The egg market is expected to be volatile. With the approach of the peak demand season after the plum - rain season, the demand will boost the egg price, but considering the supply pressure, the peak price is expected to be lower than last year. Attention should be paid to whether the futures market stabilizes [1][2]. - Pigs: The pig market is expected to be volatile. The pig price is under pressure but also has support. Short - term volatility is expected, and attention should be paid to the impact of the feed end and market sentiment on the futures price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Wednesday, the corn futures closed with a doji. The 9 - month contract fell to a low of 2310 and then rebounded. The weighted contract's position increased after two months of reduction. The spot price was under pressure due to imported corn auctions. In the Northeast, the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and in the North China, the price was weak. The sales area price remained firm. The China National Grain Reserves Corporation will continue the imported corn auction in mid - July [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean fell for the third consecutive day. Concerns about tariff disputes led to fund selling. The market is waiting for the export sales report and the USDA 7 - month supply - demand report. Domestically, the protein meal fluctuated narrowly, the spot market was weak, and the import cost decreased [1]. - **Edible Oils**: The BMD palm oil rose for three consecutive days, but the weak CBOT soybean oil limited its upside. The Canadian rapeseed fell more than 3% due to technical selling. The MPOB will release the supply - demand report. Domestically, the palm oil led the rise, but the soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively weak, and the overall supply was loose [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the egg futures rebounded in the afternoon. The spot price was stable, and with the approach of the peak demand season, the demand will support the price, but the supply pressure exists [1][2]. - **Pigs**: On Wednesday, the pig futures fluctuated and adjusted. The spot price was relatively stable. The northern market had price declines due to sales pressure, while the southern market had price support due to farmers' price - holding actions [2]. Market Information - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: BMI predicts that the Malaysian palm oil production will partially recover in the 2025/26 season, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons. However, the domestic consumption will decrease by 2% to 38 million tons due to slow biofuel target progress and stricter waste cooking oil trade restrictions [3]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the spot crushing profit of 8 - 9 month - shipping soybeans in South China is - 40 - 10 yuan/ton. The purchase of 8 - month - shipping soybeans is basically completed, over 60% of the 9 - month - shipping soybeans have been purchased, and there are no purchases for the 10 - 1 month - shipping soybeans [3]. - **USDA Report Forecasts**: Reuters' analysts predict that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is 169.25 million tons, the US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.334 billion bushels with a yield of 52.5 bushels/acre, the global 2025/26 soybean ending inventory is 126.31 million tons, the global 2025/26 corn ending inventory is 277.46 million tons, and the global 2025/26 wheat ending inventory is 262.69 million tons [3][4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [5][6][8][9][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [14][15][19][25][26].

Group 1 - The U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, expressed optimism about the trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada, believing a fair agreement will be reached soon [1] - Hoekstra highlighted that both President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney are negotiating for beneficial agreements for their respective countries, aiming for a "real win-win" situation [1] - Following the suspension of trade talks by Trump, Canada announced the cancellation of its digital services tax, aiming to finalize a trade agreement by July 21 [1] Group 2 - The background of the tariff dispute includes a trade agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, signed during Trump's first term, which was later disregarded by Trump in his second term [2] - In response to the U.S. imposing a 50% import tax on steel and aluminum, Canada implemented counter-tariffs on U.S. manufactured goods worth billions, including vehicles and consumer products [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney chose not to retaliate when Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum shortly after taking office [2]