Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate significant disagreement among policymakers regarding the continuation of interest rate cuts in December, with the probability of a rate cut dropping from 60% to around 30% [1] - Global iron ore production has reached a historical high, with an expected output of approximately 2.613 billion tons in 2025, an increase of 32.98 million tons year-on-year [2] - Jiangsu province has initiated a yellow alert for heavy pollution, but the impact on steel prices is expected to be limited due to the majority of steel companies already meeting environmental standards [3] Industry Analysis - **Steel Market Trends**: - Construction steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight decline due to increased production and weakened cost support from raw materials [4] - Plate steel prices are under pressure from high inventory levels and limited domestic manufacturing demand, leading to a bearish outlook [6] - The price of section steel is also anticipated to decline as supply pressures increase and demand remains weak [7] - Pipe prices are stable but facing downward pressure due to reduced demand from end markets [8] - **Raw Material Trends**: - Coking coal prices have dropped, influenced by government efforts to stabilize energy supply, with a significant number of independent coking plants reporting losses [9] - Steel billet prices are expected to decline as production slows and inventory levels remain high [10] - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to reduced demand from steel mills and a decrease in shipments from Australia and Brazil [11] - Scrap steel prices are expected to remain weak as supply exceeds demand, with steel mills adjusting their scrap usage based on profitability [13] Price Forecast - The steel market is facing downward pressure due to a lack of macroeconomic support and ongoing production adjustments, with expectations of further price declines in the short term [14]