Market Overview - The tightening liquidity is suppressing risk appetite, leading to a pullback in the market [5][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3891.86, down 0.80%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to 13478.06 [1][8] - The overall market saw a decline with 1008 stocks rising and 4372 stocks falling, with a total trading volume of 20059.05 billion [9] Economic Insights - Eurozone's March CPI preliminary year-on-year increase is 2.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.2% [15][16] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 325 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40% [17][18] - China's Purchasing Managers' Index returned to the expansion zone in March, indicating economic recovery [19][20] Company Dynamics - **Lens Technology (300433.SZ)**: Reported a 2025 annual revenue of 744.10 billion yuan, up 6.46%, and a net profit of 40.18 billion yuan, up 10.87% [27][28] - **Kailai Ying (002821.SZ)**: Expected revenue growth of 19%-22% in 2026, with a 2025 revenue of 66.70 billion yuan, up 14.91% [29][30] - **China Duty Free Group (601888.SH)**: Reported a 2025 revenue of 536.94 billion yuan, down 4.92%, and a net profit of 35.86 billion yuan, down 15.96% [31][32] - **Reap Bio (300119.SZ)**: Achieved a net profit of 4.01 billion yuan in 2025, up 33% [33][34] - **Anhui Heli (600761.SH)**: Reported a revenue of 198.19 billion yuan, up 11.35%, with a net profit of 12.25 billion yuan, down 8.50% [35][36] - **Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH)**: Achieved a net profit of 84.1 billion yuan in 2025, up 41.2%, with total revenue of 897 billion yuan [38][39] - **Zoomlion (000157.SZ)**: Reported a revenue of 521.07 billion yuan, up 14.58%, and a net profit of 48.58 billion yuan, up 38.01% [40] Industry Trends - The steel industry is undergoing deep adjustments, with companies focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green transformations [41] - The Chinese duty-free and tourism retail market is highly concentrated, with China Duty Free Group maintaining a leading position through its comprehensive layout and supply chain advantages [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 31, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 oscillated weakly, giving back the previous day's gains. The news is relatively bearish for the expected steel cost and price. From the fundamental perspective, the demand continues to recover but fails to drive the steel price to strengthen further. Instead, it declines under the drive of cost expectations. It is expected that the steel price may first decline and then rise in the future. It is still recommended to buy for hedging at low prices in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to the further development of the BHP event and changes in the Middle East situation [6][10][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On March 31, the prices of individual rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets declined. The rebar prices in Wuxi, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, and Hangzhou markets decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the rebar price in Taiyuan market rose by 30 yuan/ton. The hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai and Nanjing markets both decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2605 contract and the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract are moving downward. The J and K values of the rebar 2605 contract have turned down, and the D value continues to decline. The daily MACD indicator of the rebar 2605 contract shows a death cross, and the daily MACD red bar of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract has significantly narrowed, approaching a death cross [8] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - **News**: (1) According to US officials, the US President has indicated to his aides that he is willing to end the military operation against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. US government officials estimate that forcing the reopening of the waterway would extend the military operation beyond the original 4 - 6 week time frame. Based on this, the President has decided to gradually end the current military operation after achieving the main goals of weakening Iran's navy and its missile capabilities. (2) According to a report by The West Australian on March 15, some domestic steel mills have received notice to temporarily relax the restrictions on a certain iron ore variety of BHP. It is reported that some domestic steel mills have been allowed to extract the BHP Jimblebar iron ore that was previously积压 at the port due to the ban [9][10] - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output of the five major steel products decreased slightly after three consecutive weeks of recovery from a low level. The destocking of factory and social inventories accelerated, and the weekly demand quickly recovered to a new high since the end of November last year. In terms of raw materials, the port iron ore inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks from the record high since December 2015. The steel mills' iron ore inventory briefly dropped to a 21 - day supply level and then replenished to 23 days. The shipment volume of imported iron ore in the past four weeks decreased by 2.9% month - on - month, and the arrival volume increased by 5.5% month - on - month. Although the supply will decline in the future, the current trend of loosening remains unchanged. From March 23 to 28, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased slightly compared with the previous week, with an average increase of 0.4% at the Ganqimaodu Port, generally in the range of 16.6 - 20.5 tons. The coking coal inventory of coking plants has significantly recovered from a low level in the past three weeks, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills has increased steadily [10] 3.2 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing business climate. The Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, showing an improvement in the non - manufacturing business climate. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating an overall positive business climate for Chinese enterprises [12] - **Coal Production**: In mid - March, the output of key monitored coal enterprises reached 67.56 million tons, an increase of 3.12 million tons or 4.8% compared with early March, and an increase of 2.52 million tons or 3.9% year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first and middle ten - days of March was 1.32 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [12] - **Company Performance**: - Ansteel Co., Ltd. reported an operating income of 96.052 billion yuan in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 8.61%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was - 4.068 billion yuan, compared with - 7.122 billion yuan in the previous year [12] - Valin Steel's operating income in 2025 was 121.138 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.94%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.611 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.49%. The non - recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.309 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.80% [12] - Bayi Iron & Steel's operating income in 2025 was 18.748 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was negative again, with the loss expanding to 1.879 billion yuan, marking the company's fourth consecutive year of losses [12] - China Shenhua's operating income in 2025 was 294.916 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 52.849 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% [13] - Yankuang Energy's operating income in 2025 was 144.933 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 8.381 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 41.9% [13] - Xinji Energy's operating income in 2025 was 12.28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.51%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.136 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.73%. The non - recurring net profit was 2.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.37% [13] - **Company Investment and Contracts**: - Baofeng Energy announced that it will jointly establish the Beijing Beijiao United Lingyue No. 2 Equity Investment Center (Limited Partnership) with Beijing Beijiao United Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd. The total subscribed capital of the fund is 96.6 million yuan, and Baofeng Energy, as a limited partner, will subscribe 93.6 million yuan, accounting for 96.89%. The fund mainly invests in AI technology application projects [13] - China State Shipbuilding Corporation announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd., jointly with China Shipbuilding Trading Co., Ltd., signed a contract on March 30, 2026, with a well - known domestic shipowner for the construction of 10 very large crude carriers (VLCCs). The contract amount is between 8 billion and 9 billion yuan, to be paid in US dollars, with delivery dates from 2028 to 2030. The contract is subject to English law, and disputes will be resolved through London arbitration. The implementation of this contract will have a positive impact on the company's future operating income and profit, and is conducive to improving the company's medium - and long - term market competitiveness and profitability [13] - **International News**: - Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said that Russia will not supply oil to countries that maintain price caps. Russian President Vladimir Putin has extended the counter - measures against the price caps on Russian oil and oil products until June 30, 2026 [13] - Rio Tinto announced on March 30 that the operation of its iron ore ports in the Pilbara region of Western Australia has returned to normal after bad weather [13] - Affected by the Middle East conflict, the prices of diesel and regular gasoline in Germany have risen significantly recently. The German Federal Ministry of Economics announced on March 30 that measures to limit the number of price increases at gas stations to once a day at noon will take effect on April 1. Gas stations can still reduce prices at any time. The German government said that this measure aims to suppress sharp price fluctuations and improve price transparency [13] - According to foreign media reports, Indian Power Ministry Deputy Minister Shripad Naik said on March 30 that due to the shortage of natural gas supply caused by the US - Iran conflict, India is accelerating the approval process for the commissioning of wind power projects and battery energy storage systems [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the weekly output of the five major steel products, steel mill inventories, social inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average hot metal output, apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices and the May contracts [16][17][22][27][28][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets are expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are given, and specific trading strategies are proposed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore closed higher, and they also closed higher during the night session [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The US government proposed a 15 - item conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, and is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [1]. - US President Trump said the US is communicating with the "right people", and Iran "wants to reach an agreement", also claiming success in the Iran issue [1]. - Iran's new supreme leader's military advisor emphasized that Iran will stop the war only after getting all compensations, having all economic sanctions lifted, and obtaining international legal guarantees of US non - interference [1]. - In February 2026, the total energy consumption of member enterprises decreased by 2.91% year - on - year, the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.66% year - on - year, the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel decreased by 1.43% year - on - year, and the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 4.05% year - on - year [1]. - In February 2026, the crude steel output of 69 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - On the 24th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan, up 10 yuan [1]. - On the 24th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port remained stable. For example, 60.8% PB powder was 794 yuan per wet ton, unchanged [1]. - On the 24th, the spot market of port coke remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market improved, the quantity of coke collected at the two ports increased slightly compared with the previous working day, and the total inventory at the two ports continued to increase [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - It is expected that steel and ore will fluctuate with a bullish bias. The support level for rebar futures is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200; for hot - rolled coil, the support level is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350; for iron ore futures, the support level is 750, and the pressure level is 840 [1]. - For unilateral trading, short - term operations are recommended. For arbitrage, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. The closing spread on Tuesday night was 180, the stop - loss spread is recommended to be raised to 140, and the take - profit level is around 200 [1]. - The rebar - to - iron - ore ratio is 3.82. It is recommended to take the opportunity to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, that is, go long on rebar and short on iron ore, with the target ratio rising to 4 [1]. - Attention should also be paid to the possible impact of the later main contract roll - over [1][2].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Input-driven inflation combined with inventory reduction leads to limited price increases in downstream sectors[4] - Historical data shows that during inventory reduction cycles, domestic PPI remained negative despite external inflation pressures[10] - Current economic conditions indicate that most downstream industries are in an active inventory reduction phase, limiting their ability to pass on price increases[14] Group 2: Asset Allocation Opportunities - In the context of localized inflation, essential consumer goods are expected to see stable demand and limited price resistance, presenting investment opportunities[22] - Bond yields are expected to remain stable due to insufficient evidence of rising interest rates, despite input-driven inflation[24] - Commodity prices may see long-term upward adjustments, contingent on demand-side validation and inventory cycle rotations[27] Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Domestic economic fundamentals may change unexpectedly, impacting growth trajectories[28] - Geopolitical risks could spill over, affecting global economic stability and asset prices[28] - Uncertainties in overseas market fluctuations may lead to volatility in global asset prices, influencing domestic markets[28]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The recent price rebound of finished products is mainly driven by the increasing expectation of rising raw material costs. After the recent basis convergence, the upward momentum has slowed down, and the main contract is under pressure at the off - peak electricity cost. The short - term trend may be volatile and consolidating [3]. Group 3: Data Summary Futures Prices - On March 19, 2026, RB2605 closed at 3133, RB2610 at 3159, HC2605 at 3303, and HC2610 at 3305. The spread between RB2605 and RB2610 was - 26 yuan, and the spread between HC2605 and HC2610 was - 2 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for the May contract was 170 yuan, and for the October contract was 146 yuan [2]. Spot Prices - On March 19, 2026, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3210 yuan (- 20 yuan compared to the previous day), and the price of Shanghai Bensteel hot - rolled coil was 3280 yuan (- 10 yuan compared to the previous day) [2]. Supply, Inventory and Consumption - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 839.82 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.85 million tons, an increase of 2.3%. The total inventory was 1946.23 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.66 million tons, a decrease of 1.5%. The apparent consumption was 868.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% [2]. Construction Site Data - As of March 18, the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 62%, a month - on - month increase of 19.5 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.62 percentage points [2]. Commodity Trading Volume - On March 19, the iron ore trading volume at major ports nationwide was 61.30 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.3%. The trading volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 8.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [2]. Steel Mill Cost and Profit - On March 19, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3403 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The average profit was a loss of 89 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 22 yuan/ton [2]. Production Data - From January to February 2026, China's rebar production was 26.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1% [2]. Group 4: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to expect a volatile market [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For building materials, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the price center moving down and showing a weak operation [1][2] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to remain high in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment [3] Summary of Different Sections Building Materials - In the Yun - Gui region, short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one mill started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the other mills will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Building materials continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to move down continuously. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has declined. Due to energy, logistics, and geopolitical factors in Europe, the Middle East, etc., some production capacities have entered the cycle of production reduction or shutdown, strengthening the expectation of global supply - side contraction; domestic electrolytic aluminum maintains stable operation, and the overall supply side is stable [2] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% compared with the previous week, continuing the post - festival recovery trend, with all sectors increasing compared with the previous week, and the industry has generally entered the normal production rhythm [2] - The power grid investment has entered the concentrated delivery period, the aluminum cable sector is strong, the operating rate has increased by 2 more percentage points to 65%, the demand for UHV and overhead lines is strong, and the enterprise production schedule has covered March, showing a clear high - level operation trend [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 72.9%. There are both the recovery of demand in the traditional peak season and the short - term support of battery foils, but the Middle East war situation has dragged down air - conditioner exports, affecting the production schedule of air - conditioner foils and restricting the further improvement space [2] - High aluminum prices and macro uncertainties are continuously suppressing the release elasticity of demand, and the quality of the "Golden March" traditional peak season remains to be seen [2] - On Monday, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas increased by 18,500 tons compared with the previous day, and all three regions showed a trend of inventory accumulation. In the short term, after the Spring Festival, aluminum ingots have continued seasonal inventory accumulation. Affected by the market's bullish sentiment, it is expected that the premium and discount will continue to shrink [2] - Although the domestic social inventory continues to accumulate, the current Middle East geopolitical situation is the focus of global attention. The geopolitical conflict situation is changeable, the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain still exists, and the price volatility has increased. The overseas price support is strong, while the domestic market is in a stage of high inventory and weak reality, with weaker upward momentum than overseas, and the Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Scrap Steel Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: March 2, 2026 [1] Price Data - Scrap steel prices in different regions from February 13 to February 27, 2026 are presented. In the East China region, the price increased from 2190 on February 13 to 2193 on February 27; in the North China region, it increased from 2264 to 2266; in the Central region, it remained at 2063; in the South China region, it remained at 2220; in the Northeast region, it remained at 2215; in the Southwest region, it remained at 2107 [2] - The环比 (month - on - month) changes are 1 in East China and North China, and 0 in the Central, South China, Northeast, and Southwest regions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the market trends and industry outlook for the low-carbon steel plate sector in China from 2026 to 2032, indicating a decline in market prices for hot-rolled ordinary plates in early February 2026 compared to previous years [1] Price Trends - The market price for hot-rolled ordinary plates (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) in early February 2026 is reported at 3258.1 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.64% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.45% [1] - The highest recorded price in the same period over the past five years was in early February 2022, reaching 5065.9 yuan per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ghanaian government is implementing a ban on the export of scrap metal, which is expected to significantly impact the steel industry and the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The ban is projected to reduce steel imports by 20% to 30% [1] - It is anticipated to generate approximately $300 million annually in revenue from processed metal exports [1] - The initiative is expected to save the country several hundred million dollars in foreign exchange [1] Group 2: Employment Opportunities - The policy is expected to create 10,000 new jobs in the steel industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The agreement between China and South Korea on the price commitment in the hot-rolled coil anti-dumping case reflects mutual respect and understanding, signaling a positive development for bilateral economic cooperation [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - On February 23, 2026, South Korea announced a consensus with China regarding the price commitment plan in the final ruling of the hot-rolled coil anti-dumping case [1] - The industry in both countries welcomed the agreement, believing that replacing anti-dumping duties with price commitments aligns with the industrial interests of both nations [1] Group 2: Economic Relations - China and South Korea have closely intertwined economic ties, with deep integration of supply chains and mutual benefits from cooperation [1] - The resolution of the hot-rolled coil case under the framework of WTO rules demonstrates both countries' commitment to multilateralism and the maintenance of free and fair trade [1] - This agreement serves as a model for resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation, injecting positive energy into stabilizing international economic cooperation [1]