成材：原料走强 钢价跟涨 逻辑：中钢协数据显示，8 月中旬重点钢企粗钢平均日产 211.5 万吨， 日产环比增长 2.0%；钢材库存量 1567 万吨，环比上一旬增加 60 万吨， 增长 4.0%。8 月 25 日，上海市住建委、市财政局等六部门联合印发《关 于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》，出台包括调减住房限购、优化 住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完善个人住房房产税等政策。据国际 船舶网，8 月 18 日至 8 月 24 日，全球船厂共接获 16+4 艘新船订单。其 中中国船厂接获 8+3 艘新船订单；韩国船厂接获 6 艘新船订单，美国船厂 也获得相关新船订单。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 成材昨日反弹上涨，一方面焦煤涨幅较大带动成材跟涨，另一方面上 海优化调整本市地产政策措施，A 股地产板块异动，间接带动成材价格上 行。目前成材面临的问题是下游偏弱，是否地产政策的调整能带动价格走 强仍需进一步观察，且近期钢价走势受原料影响较大。 观点：短期波动较大，震荡偏弱运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；供给侧减产情况；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 成材 原材料： 冯艳 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,389 | +28↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 938245 | -59902↓ | | 期货市场 | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -69,010 | -14157↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 12 | +3↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 27749 | -5366↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 251 | +9↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,450.00 | +10.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,420.00 | +30.00↑ +20.00↑ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,460.00 | +10.00↑ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,380.00 | | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 61.00 | -18.00↓ 杭州热卷-螺纹钢价差 ...

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年08月25日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金：JH会议鲍威尔放鸽 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲顶前高 | 3 | | 铜：美元回落，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：累库放缓 | 12 | | 氧化铝：横盘小涨 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：市场情绪提振 | 18 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡，以逢低做多为主 | 18 | | 铁矿石：短期估值仍有来自宏微观的支撑 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 28 | | 对 ...

Global Economic Trends - Global economic growth is expected to be 2.8% in 2025, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the average growth rate from 2010 to 2019[14] - The World Bank predicts a global economic growth of only 2.3% in 2025, down from earlier forecasts[15] - International trade growth is anticipated to decline, with a projected decrease of 0.2% in global merchandise trade volume in 2025[16] China's Economic Outlook - China's GDP is projected to grow by approximately 4.7% in the second half of 2025, with a nominal GDP growth of 4.3% in the first half[27][28] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) may turn negative in the second half of 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by around 3.0% for the year[30] - The unemployment rate for urban areas averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year[27] A-Share Market Performance - A-share companies' overall market value creation ability decreased by nearly 40 basis points in 2024 compared to 2023[40] - The performance of A-share companies is increasingly diverging from nominal GDP growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector[40] - The return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) for A-share companies continued to decline in 2024[40] Sector-Specific Insights - The first industry saw a significant recovery in asset returns due to rising pork prices, while the second and third industries experienced declines[10] - R&D investment in some sectors continued to rise in 2024, although some industries began to see a decrease[10] - The manufacturing sector is facing severe "involution" competition, impacting profitability and pricing power[30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as high - level oscillation, slight decline, waiting for policy guidance, etc. [2][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12, up 0.32%. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: Forecasted to decline slightly, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9162, up 1.31%. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 28. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Waiting for the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance, with narrowing price fluctuations and a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 78,630, down 0.30%. PT Smelting's smelting plant extended its maintenance period due to equipment failure. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22240, down 0.11%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: Supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16745, up 0.12%. Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 1481 tons. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Forecasted to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 266,480, down 0.51%. [2][21][24] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20590. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 57.90 million tons, down 0.70 million tons. [2][25][27] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,830. [2][28][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,795. [2][29][34] Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Supported by macro - sentiment premium, with expected increase in import costs. [5] - **Propylene**: With tightening supply - demand and price support. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long term. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating trend, with short - term strengthening. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak and in consolidation, with a slight rebound in the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market. [5] - **PTA**: Due to unplanned device shutdown, a long - spread strategy is recommended. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4860, up 1.72%. [2][61][62] - **MEG**: Expected to show a strong trend. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4473, down 0.09%. [2][61][62] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Compressing profit margins. [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market. [2] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel exemption volume may be lower than expected, leading to an increase in international oil prices. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating and consolidating at a high level. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the large increase in US soybeans overnight, Dalian soybean meal may rebound. [5] - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to run weakly. [5] - **Sugar**: Oscillating within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, waiting for new drivers. [5] - **Egg**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens. [5] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the end - of - month spot verification. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5] Others - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the fact that the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined. The closing price of the iron - ore futures contract was 772.5, up 0.46%. [2][43][44] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the RB2510 contract was 3,121, down 0.03%. [2][46][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the HC2510 contract was 3,375, down 0.44%. [2][47] - **Silicon Iron**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the silicon - iron 2511 contract was 5638. [2][51] - **Manganese Silicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the manganese - silicon 2511 contract was 5820. [2][51] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1664, down 0.8%. [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1147, down 1.3%. [2][54] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 804.5, down 0.1%. [2][57][58] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy shows strong growth as the US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly reached a three - year high, but it may also affect the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm due to inflation concerns [7]. - For the soybean sector, the rise in US soybean prices is driven by a Reuters report and a market rumor. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic and move with US soybean prices [8][10]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to oscillate and correct after the macro - sentiment cools down, as the driving force for the previous rise has weakened [11]. - The copper market lacks a clear driver, with a narrowing price range, but the downside support is relatively clear. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. - The PTA market has a strong unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Indicators - The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, with the output and backlog of orders reaching highs since mid - 2022, and new orders reaching the highest since February 2024. The services PMI initial value was 55.4, a two - month low, and the composite PMI initial value was 55.4, a nine - month high [7]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Analyses 3.2.1 Beans - Reuters reported that the Trump administration is expected to rule on small refinery biofuel exemption applications on Friday, and a supplementary rule on large refineries may be released next week. A market rumor said that China plans to buy US soybeans, driving up US soybean prices. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic [8][10]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous rise was due to the expected supply contraction of coking coal under anti - involution policies. Recently, the driving force has weakened as the policy window has passed, the macro - sentiment has cooled, the exchange has restricted positions and increased handling fees, and the actual supply remains high with weakening fundamentals. Coke's seventh price increase is expected to be implemented today, but steel mills' acceptance of price increases is decreasing [11]. 3.2.3 Copper - Macroscopically, the market is waiting for Fed Chairman Powell's speech and interest - rate cut expectations. Fundamentally, overseas smelters are reducing production due to raw - material shortages and losses. The tight supply of recycled copper may also affect production. The domestic consumption season is approaching, and inventories are low. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. 3.2.4 PTA - The unexpected shutdown of the Hengli Huizhou PTA plant is expected to cause significant inventory reduction in August - September. The polyester device's operating rate has increased, and the PTA supply - demand relationship will turn to a tight balance. Attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3.3 Other Commodity Trends - Gold is in high - level oscillation, and silver has a slight decline [19]. - Zinc is in a weak oscillation, and lead's price is supported by inventory reduction [19][33][36]. - Tin is in range - bound oscillation, and aluminum is in a range - bound state, with alumina slightly falling and cast aluminum alloy following electrolytic aluminum [19][40][43]. - Nickel is in low - level oscillation, and stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between expectations and reality [19][46][47]. - Lithium carbonate's weekly inventory is decreasing again, and it is in range - bound oscillation [19][53]. - Industrial silicon is affected by market news, and attention should be paid to the upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to this week's meeting information [19][57]. - Iron ore still has support as the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined [19][61]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [19][64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations [19][69]. - Coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations [19][72]. - Logs are in repeated oscillations [75].

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved a profit distribution plan for the first half of 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 1.186 yuan per 10 shares, which reflects a commitment to shareholder returns and aligns with regulatory requirements [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company is named Nanjing Steel Group Co., Ltd., with the stock code 600282 [5]. - The report period covers January to June 2025, with the report date being June 30, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Financial Data - The financial data for the reporting period is presented in RMB, but specific figures are not detailed in the provided text [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - The report includes information on the top 10 shareholders, although specific details are not provided in the text [2]. Group 4: Significant Events - The company’s associate, Jiangsu Tiangong Technology Co., Ltd., has received approval to publicly issue shares and list on the Beijing Stock Exchange, which may enhance the company's investment portfolio [3]. - The company has revised its articles of association to eliminate the supervisory board, transferring its responsibilities to the audit and internal control committee, in compliance with the new Company Law [5][6][8]. Group 5: Regulatory Compliance - The revision of the articles of association is in line with the new Company Law effective from July 1, 2024, and aims to improve corporate governance and operational standards [6][8].

晨报 成材 成材：受原料拖累 钢价回调 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 逻辑：中钢协：2025 年 7 月，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 6680 万 吨,同比下降 3.2%，日产 215.48 万吨，环比下降 5.6%。据奥维云网(AVC) 线下市场监测数据显示，7 月彩电线下零售额规模同比增长 13.6%；冰箱 同比增长 15.7%；洗衣机同比增长 15.7%；空调同比增长 36.5%8 月 18 日， Mysteel 统计 76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3352 元/吨，日 环比减少 3 元/吨，平均利润为-76 元/吨，谷电利润为 25 元/吨，日环比 减少 7 元/吨。8 月 18 日，唐山迁安普方坯资源出厂含税下调 20，报 3050。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日震荡回落，双 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential imposition of high tariffs on semiconductor products by the U.S. government, which could significantly impact the semiconductor industry and supply chain dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - U.S. President Donald Trump plans to announce tariffs on semiconductor products within two weeks, with potential rates exceeding 100% [1]. - Trump suggested that the actual tariff rates could be as high as 200% or 300%, indicating a significant escalation in trade policy [1][3]. Group 2: Impact on Industry - The lack of a clear timeline or rules regarding the tariffs forces semiconductor manufacturers, electronics brands, and AI companies to create contingency plans that may never be utilized, consuming resources and slowing down actual investments [4]. - The ongoing uncertainty regarding whether these tariffs will be implemented creates a dilemma for companies, potentially leading them to hastily shift production to the U.S. without a guarantee of the promised tariff adjustments [4]. Group 3: Investigation and Compliance - The U.S. Department of Commerce has been investigating the semiconductor and pharmaceutical industries since April, as part of a national security review under Section 232, which allows for tariff adjustments based on national security concerns [3][6]. - The timeline for the conclusion of this investigation remains uncertain, adding to the complexity and unpredictability for the affected industries [6].

朝闻国盛 建筑央国企矿产资源重估价值有多大？ 今日概览 重磅研报 【固定收益】"搬家"的存款还是存款——20250814 【固定收益】可转债产业链大图谱———2025 年 8 月——20250814 【建筑装饰】建筑央国企矿产资源重估价值有多大？——20250814 【房地产】公募 REITs 二季报业绩点评：分化成主基调，择时为关键— —20250814 研究视点 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 08 15 年 月 日 【钢铁】甬金股份（603995.SH）-季度盈利环比改善，规模持续扩张— —20250814 作者 | 分析师 林志朋 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680518100004 | | | | | 邮箱：linzhipeng@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 18.3% | 31.9% | 77.3% | | 电子 | 12.3% | 16.8% | 61.6% | | 有色金属 | 10.5% | 20 ...