活动背景 在全球贸易格局变化中的市场洞察 尽管多数商品价格出现下跌，2025年大宗商品市场的不确定性和波动性却显著增强，成为企业 运营和战略规划中的重要挑战。 2025年，大宗商品市场在全球经济放缓与地缘政治紧张的双重影响下，呈现出"价格走低、波动 加剧"的复杂局面。能源、金属、农产品等板块走势分化，传统供需逻辑被打破，企业在成本控 制、供应链稳定和战略转型方面面临前所未有的挑战。这一年，不仅是市场的重塑期，更是企 业重新定义韧性与竞争力的关键节点—— 铂金钯金期货即将上市 ，它们又有着怎样的产品核心 价值并会对产业和全球市场带来哪些变化？ 伦敦证券交易所集团在杭州举办的大宗商品线下研讨会将从这一背景出发，邀请您一起探讨 "十五五"规划对铜市场带来的机遇，了解我们的金银铂钯独家数据发布内容，如何以及如何应 用LSEG天气数据预测农产品市场行情。 活动时间 日期： 2025年12月4日（周四） 时间： 15:00 – 17:00 地点： 浙江，杭州君悦酒店 活动议程 14:30 - 15:00 签到 15:00 - 15:10 开场致辞 15:10 - 15:25 主题分15享:2：5 -金1银5:4铂5钯新数 ...

徐绍祖（联系人） PE农膜订单好于预期， 高产量压力暂时缓解 聚烯烃周报 2025/11/22 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场止跌后大幅反弹，大宗商品市场跟涨。 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货），聚丙烯周度涨幅（成本＞现货＞期货）。 成本端：上周WTI原油上涨1.62%，Brent原油上涨1.28%，煤价无变动0.00%，甲醇下跌-4.52%，乙烯下跌-0.47%，丙烯上涨2.94%， 丙烷上涨2.52%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率83.77%，环比上涨0.06%，同比去年上涨2.17%，较5年同期下降-7.82%。PP产能利用率77.71%，环比下降- 3.85%，同 ...

今日导读>> 美联储公布了10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，决 策者对12月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。 03 江苏7市启动重污染天气黄色预警 产业新闻 01 FOMC在10月会议上以10比2的投票结果通过了降息25个基点的决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.75%-4.00%。 分析师解读：美联储降息预期降温，从之前的60%的概率下降到30%左右，美元仍处于高位，利空大宗 商品市场价格，利空钢价走势。 02 全球铁矿石产量突破历史新高 在海外国家积极布局下，一大批新增产能项目陆续投产或即将投产，当前全球铁矿石市场正处于一个产 能释放周期的关键阶段。得益于此，过去两年全球铁矿石产量逐年增加，2025年同比增量较2024年有所 减少。全球矿山数据库最新结果显示，2025年全球铁矿石产量约为26.13亿吨，同比增加3298万吨。 钢材走势分析 01 建材：昨日价格主稳个跌 受双焦大幅下跌拖累，负反馈加剧，成本端支撑走弱，而本周建材产量增加7.96至207.96万吨，库存下 降22.83至553.34万吨，原料走弱给钢厂让利，铁水流向建材生产，建筑钢材产量增加，而 ...

活动背景 在全球贸易格局变化中的市场洞察 尽管多数商品价格出现下跌，2025年大宗商品市场的不确定性和波动性却显著增强，成为企业 运营和战略规划中的重要挑战。 2025年，大宗商品市场在全球经济放缓与地缘政治紧张的双重影响下，呈现出"价格走低、波动 加剧"的复杂局面。能源、金属、农产品等板块走势分化，传统供需逻辑被打破，企业在成本控 制、供应链稳定和战略转型方面面临前所未有的挑战。这一年，不仅是市场的重塑期，更是企 业重新定义韧性与竞争力的关键节点。 LSEG在杭州举办的大宗商品线下研讨会将从这一背景出发，邀请您一起探讨"十五五"规划对铜 市场带来的机遇，以及如何应用LSEG天气数据预测农产品市场行情。 活动时间 活动议程 14:30 - 15:00 签到 15:00 - 15:10 开场致辞 15:10 - 15:30 主题分15享:3：0 -棕1榈5:5油0市场与展望 主题分享："十五五"规划对铜市场带来的机遇 15:50 - 16:00 交流&茶歇 16:00 - 16:20 主题分享：关税变局下的棉花市场展望 16:20 - 17:00 日期： 2025年12月4日（周四） 时间： 15:00 – 1 ...

二、能源与航运期货 原油市场呈现上行趋势，油价攀升至盘中高点，WTI原油价格升破每桶60美元关口[7]。 来源：喜娜AI 美国至11月14日当周API原油库存增加444.8万桶，前值为增加130万桶，库存增幅超预期[8]。 此外，阿根廷政府宣布将取消常规石油的出口税，可能对国际原油供应格局产生影响[9]。 三、金融期货 恒指期货夜盘表现积极，收涨0.48%，报26039.10点，高水109.07点[10]。 一、贵金属期货 现货黄金价格表现强劲，日内多次突破关键点位，先后突破4070美元/盎司和4080美元/盎司关口，日内 涨幅分别达到0.04%、0.65%和近1%[1][2][3][4]。 纽约期金同步走高，同样突破4070美元/盎司和4080美元/盎司，日内涨幅分别为0.08%和0.13%[5][6]。 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）宣布，本周将开始发布交易商持仓报告，首份报告预计将于当地时 间周三下午发布，市场将密切关注持仓变化对期货市场的指引[11]。 四、农产品期货 农产品期货中，豆粕连续主力合约日内下跌1%，现报3026.00元/吨[12]。 纯碱连续主力合约同样走弱，日内跌2%，现报1195 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant uncertainty and volatility in the commodity market for 2025, driven by global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, leading to a complex situation of "falling prices and increased volatility" [2] Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, the commodity market is expected to face challenges in cost control, supply chain stability, and strategic transformation due to the breakdown of traditional supply-demand logic [2] - The year is characterized as a period of market reshaping and a critical juncture for companies to redefine resilience and competitiveness [2] Group 2: Event Details - A seminar hosted by LSEG in Hangzhou will explore how to find certainty amid uncertainty, aiming to help businesses seize more opportunities [2] - The event is scheduled for December 4, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:00, with specific details to be provided in a confirmation letter [6] Group 3: Expert Contributions - The seminar will feature expert speakers, including Chen Xiaoyan, Director of Agricultural Products Research at Dadi Futures, and Fu Xiaoyan, Senior Director at Nanhua Futures Research Institute, both of whom have extensive experience in the commodity market [8][9] - Kian Pang Tan, Head of Agriculture Research at LSEG, will provide insights into palm oil and sugar markets, leveraging over ten years of experience in agricultural research [10] Group 4: Data and Analysis Solutions - LSEG offers comprehensive data management solutions and trading execution capabilities to provide a competitive edge in commodity trading [12] - The company emphasizes the importance of structured data utilization, including fundamentals, supply-demand, and alternative data sources, to enhance trading decision-making [14][15]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a positive outlook for the Hang Seng Index (HSI) due to easing US-China trade tensions, with expectations for the index to return to 27,000 points [2][3] - The HSI closed at 26,649 points, up 407 points or 1.55%, with a total market turnover of 214.79 billion [3] Group 2: Macro & Industry Dynamics - The Hong Kong government proposes three recommendations to expand the commodity market, aiming to enhance economic resilience and solidify its status as an international financial center [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need to strengthen the spot trading foundation before developing futures trading, which will gradually increase demand for related derivatives [6] - Key commodities such as gold, iron ore, copper, and aluminum are identified as having significant growth potential due to strong demand from mainland China and global energy transition trends [6][7] Group 3: Company News - Nissin Foods reported a 2.73% increase in net profit for the first three quarters, amounting to HKD 258 million, driven by robust performance in Hong Kong and other regions [10] - HKTVmall's total order value in October increased by 6.01% month-on-month, although it decreased by 4.31% year-on-year, reflecting changing consumer patterns and increased competition [11] - Boyaa Interactive anticipates a doubling of profits for the first three quarters, primarily due to an increase in the fair value of digital assets [12]

Core Insights - The global energy market is experiencing volatility due to rapid industry development, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand imbalances [1] - The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index has risen nearly 15% for 2025, but the underlying fundamentals appear unstable [3][8] - There is a significant divergence between the soaring gold prices and the declining oil prices, reminiscent of the 2008 market conditions [3][8] Commodity Price Trends - Gold is trading around $4,000 per ounce, while oil is at approximately $40 per barrel, indicating a stark contrast in performance [3] - The WTI crude oil is entering a "low-price recovery" phase, which will impact natural gas and gasoline prices, currently around $2 per million BTU and $2 per gallon, respectively [3][8] - The agricultural sector, particularly soybeans, is becoming a focal point, with $11 per bushel for soybeans seen as a critical resistance level for 2026 [4][8] Agricultural Market Outlook - If soybeans can maintain above $11 per bushel, it may signal bullish trends for the grain and energy markets [4] - However, the likelihood of sustained prices above 2025 averages for soybeans, corn, wheat, oil, and natural gas is low due to oversupply concerns [4][8] - Historical patterns suggest that after significant price increases, commodities tend to correct, indicating potential downward pressure on prices [4][7] Market Dynamics and Risks - The overall commodity price increase is primarily driven by the metal sector, with gold's surge diverging from fundamental values [7][8] - The performance of the Bloomberg Commodity Index relative to the S&P 500 and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index indicates potential systemic risks if the U.S. stock market experiences a downturn [11]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of US-China trade negotiations on the commodity market, particularly focusing on copper and soybean markets [3][4][6]. Key Points on Copper Market - Global supply risks from free ports have driven copper prices up, with expectations of a structural shortage in the market due to low inventory and long-term demand from new energy sectors [4][6]. - Currently, there are no signs of copper being overbought, indicating potential for continued price increases [4]. Key Points on Gold Market - Recent gold price declines are attributed to reduced risk aversion and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, leading to a downward adjustment in December rate cut probabilities [4][5]. - Central bank gold purchases have slowed, contributing to short-term price pressures, but gold remains attractive as a long-term hedge against uncertainty [5]. Key Points on Soybean Market - The projected soybean production for the 2025-2026 season is 117 million tons, but this may be adjusted due to the USDA shutdown [6]. - Soybean exports are expected to be 45.86 million tons, with approximately 13 million tons directed to China. However, insufficient prior purchases from China have created a surplus pressure of about 12 million tons for US farmers [6][7]. - The forecast for US soybean export pressure in 2025 is between 10 to 12 million tons, significantly influenced by US-China procurement agreements [7][8]. Price Dynamics and Scenarios - Three scenarios for soybean price movements are proposed: 1. **Conservative Estimate**: If tariffs remain and first-quarter purchases are below 3 million tons, prices may quickly decline [8]. 2. **Baseline Scenario**: If imports range between 6 to 8 million tons, prices may stabilize around 1,100 cents per bushel [8]. 3. **Optimistic Scenario**: If China purchases around 12 million tons in the first quarter, prices could rise above 1,150 cents, potentially reaching 1,200 cents [8]. Chinese Soybean Market Dynamics - The Chinese soybean market is shifting from gap pricing to cost pricing, with ample supply leading to price declines in Q4 [9]. - If US-China relations improve in Q1, prices may stabilize based on Brazilian and US soybean procurement costs, with potential for profit recovery [9][10]. Impact of Chinese Procurement on Futures - The pace of Chinese soybean procurement directly affects the March futures contracts. Slow procurement and insufficient margins may lead to price increases post-Spring Festival [10][11]. Agricultural Planting Decisions - Rising soybean prices may shift planting decisions towards soybeans over corn, creating a seesaw effect in planting areas [12]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the interconnectedness of US-China trade negotiations, commodity pricing, and agricultural production decisions, emphasizing the need for close monitoring of procurement agreements and market dynamics.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current supply is relatively balanced with an increase in the north and a decrease in the south, and the overall supply will gradually decline in November. The demand in the polysilicon segment will weaken after November due to the dry - season and quota production, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that the short - term market will remain range - bound, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [6]. - For polysilicon, the current supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. However, it is supported by industrial policies and market expectations, and it is expected to remain in high - level oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract rebounded slightly, closing at 8920 yuan/ton on October 24 [6]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's output increased due to newly ignited silicon furnaces, while the start - up in the northwest (Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu) changed little. Yunnan had a small reduction in production under high - cost pressure, and the start - up rate is expected to decline further in November. Sichuan's start - up decreased gradually during the dry season. Overall, the output increased slightly this month and is expected to decline next month [6]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon production decreased slightly, reducing the consumption of industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon was basically stable, and a small amount of monomer production capacity under maintenance will resume next week. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, with primary aluminum alloy running stably and recycled aluminum alloy restricted by the tight supply of scrap aluminum. In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70200 tons, an 8% decrease from the previous month and an 8% increase year - on - year [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 559000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week [6]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 52305 yuan/ton on October 24 [7]. - **Supply**: Three enterprises resumed production and increased output in October, and the production is expected to increase slightly this month. According to the fourth - quarter production plans of each enterprise, some production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be gradually shut down for maintenance during the dry season in November, and the production will gradually decline from November to December [7]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, and component and cell manufacturers have a weak willingness to purchase. Downstream purchasing enterprises are mainly waiting and watching, and no actual transactions have been made. A new round of transactions is expected to be carried out in batches next week. In September, the import volume of polysilicon was 1291.8 tons, a 28% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 2149.5 tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is on the rise, and the purchasing pace of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. Price and Spread - **Industrial Silicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, and 421 oxygen - passed was 9100 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [10]. - **Industrial Silicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, and the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [14]. - **Polysilicon Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, P - type dense material was 33000 yuan/ton, and P - type cauliflower material was 30500 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [18]. - **Polysilicon Spread**: As of October 24, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17000 yuan/ton, and the premium over P - type cauliflower material was 19500 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [22]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica Stone**: As of October 24, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1140 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang silicon coal was 1700 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica stone was 340 yuan/ton, Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [26]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shandong port Saudi petroleum coke was 1555 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from last week. The electricity price in Xinjiang was 0.375 yuan/kWh, Sichuan was 0.325 yuan/kWh, and Yunnan was 0.33 yuan/kWh, all unchanged from last week [30]. - **Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Yunnan wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, Yunnan charcoal was 2450 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes were 12750 yuan/ton, all unchanged from last week [34]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of October 24, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.34, 1.34, 1.365, and 1.69 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week. Due to weak terminal demand, second - tier and tail enterprises actively lowered prices [37]. - **Batteries**: As of October 24, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.315, 0.315, 0.285, and 0.31 yuan/watt respectively, with decreases of 0.003, 0.003, 0.002, and 0 yuan/watt respectively from last week. Overseas market demand has declined, and export order support has weakened [41]. - **Components**: As of October 24, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.68, 0.7, 0.68, and 0.7 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and cost pressure has increased [45]. Other Related Products - **Organic Silicon**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up was stable, and the price remained stable [49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of October 24, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20800 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from last week. Aluminum alloy enterprises maintained stable start - up, the primary aluminum sector was relatively stable, and recycled aluminum alloy was restricted by scrap aluminum supply [53].