当前宏观经济形势与大 宗商品市场基本研判 教授 北京工商大学证券期货研究所 所长、 技术创新闻网报色转型、行业自信助力和谐发展 主办单位:中国有色金属工业协会 胡俞越 嘉宾简介： 胡俞越，经济学家和著名期货专家，1983 年毕业于南京大学，北京工商大学证券期货研 究所所长，教授。兼任全国人大《期货法》起草小组顾问，中国农业大学、中南大学、青岛 大学、山东工商学院兼职教授，中国商业史学会副会长，中国期货业协会研究发展委员会委 员、中国上市公司协会独董委员会委员和学术顾问委员会委员，中国市场学会金融工作委员 会主任、首都企业改革与发展研究会常务理事，北京工商管理学会理事，上海期货交易所产 品委员会委员，大连商品交易所战略咨询委员会委员，郑州商品交易所咨询顾问委员会委 员，大连商品交易所研究院专家委员会副主任，中物联大宗商品市场分会专家委员会副主 任，新华社、中央电视台和北京电视台特约评论员。担任多家上市公司、期货公司、基金公 司独立董事。 胡俞越长期从事证券期货、宏观经济、市场理论、流通理论和中国近现代市场等方面的教 学研究工作，著有 30 多部专著，发表学术论文 500 多篇。曾主持国家社科基金、国家自科 基金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may fluctuate in the short - term due to weak Sino - US economic data. The oil and fat sector may be relatively strong, while the precious metals sector may adjust with fluctuations. Each sub - sector has different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - economic factors [1]. - The non - ferrous sector may face pressure due to weak Sino - US economic data and low demand during the off - season. The black sector may fluctuate, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade. The energy sector may see oil prices fluctuate weakly, and the chemical sector has different trends for different products [2]. - The agricultural sector has different trends for different products. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The commodity market rose slightly by 0.52% last week, with agricultural products leading the rise at 1.25%. Non - ferrous and energy - chemical sectors rose by 0.99% and 0.59% respectively, while precious metals and black sectors fell by 1.23% and 0.27% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were palm oil (5.11%), soda ash (4.73%), and cotton (2.32%), and the top - losers were fuel oil (2.71%), methanol (2.55%), and eggs (2.3%) [1]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased slightly, with the agricultural and black sectors showing an upward trend in volatility. The overall market scale decreased slightly, and the out - flowing funds were mainly concentrated in the precious metals sector [1]. Sector Outlook - **Precious Metals**: The sector declined significantly last week. With the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, it may adjust with fluctuations in the short - term [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Sino - US economic data is weak, and the demand is at a low level during the off - season. The sector may face pressure in the short - term [2]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term, with attention on the limit - production intensity near the military parade [2]. - **Energy**: The market's expectation of a loose supply - demand relationship is strengthened, and the oil price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: The terminal demand for polyester products is expected to rebound, and the valuation of PX is improving. The glass price is supported by cost, while soda ash may face pressure [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA August report is positive for US soybeans. The oil and fat sector may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, while the rapeseed sector may face pressure [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs had an overall decline of 1.28%, and the total commodity ETFs had a decline of 0.51%. Different commodity ETFs had different performance in terms of net value, yield, scale, share change, and trading volume [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures on August 15, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, with different products showing different trends such as weakening, oscillating, or having support [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand pressure increases, with a weakening trend. On August 14, the price dropped to $824 per ton. Suggest focusing on terminal order repairs starting from late August, and PXN has short - term support [5][8][13]. - **PTA**: Processing fees are at a low level. Attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts. The polyester start - up rate has increased to 89.4%. It is recommended to hold a mid - term long MEG and short PTA position, and consider a 9 - 1 month spread positive arbitrage [5][10][13]. - **MEG**: The trend is weakly oscillating. There are two sets of MEG devices in East China with a total annual capacity of 1.9 million tons that are currently shut down for 1 - 2 days. It is recommended to hold a mid - term long MEG and short PTA position, operate the 9 - 1 spread within the - 50 to 0 range, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [5][10][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume has increased, and the position of the top 20 members' net short has decreased. The finished product inventory of semi - steel tire enterprises remains high, and the order situation is weak [14][15][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate within the week. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports has increased, and the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased. In the short term, there is a correction, and in the medium term, it oscillates within the valuation range [19][20][21]. Asphalt - The shipment in East China has improved locally. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The weekly output has decreased slightly, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][29][35]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The macro environment has limited changes, the cost has decreased due to falling oil prices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [36][37][39]. PP - Short - term short - chasing needs to be cautious, and the trend still faces pressure. The trend strength is 0. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, and the supply pressure is increasing, but there is uncertainty in the cost [41][42][43]. Caustic Soda - It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The trend strength is 1. The cost support is strong, and there is an expectation of demand in the peak season, especially with the expected production of 3.6 million tons of alumina capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year [45][47][48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. The price is affected by supply contraction expectations, tightened domestic circulation sources, and marginal improvement in demand, but the rebound space is limited [50][52][53]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is - 1. The domestic float glass price is weakly stable, and the downstream is more cautious in purchasing due to the decline in the futures market [56][57]. Methanol - It is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the port market is weakly oscillating, while the inland market has continued to rise [59][62][63]. Urea - It is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise inventory has increased, and the short - term downward pressure is due to the decline in the commodity index and increased fundamental pressure [64][66][67]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The trend strength is 0. The downstream demand for styrene is weak, but pure benzene is temporarily strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to positions that compress styrene profit [68][69]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The trend strength is - 1. The supply has increased slightly, and the downstream demand is stable, with a light and stable oscillation expected in the short term [71][73][74]. LPG - The disk valuation is low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction. The trend strength is 0. The expected price of Saudi CP has decreased, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [77][82][83]. Propylene - Supply and demand are tightening, and the price has certain support. The trend strength is 0. The PDH start - up rate has increased, and the spread between propylene and relevant contracts has changed [78][82]. PVC - It is expected to oscillate weakly. The trend strength is - 1. The industry profit has expanded, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [85][86][87]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session oscillates, and the short - term weakness continues. The trend strength is 0. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fluctuation intensifies, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The trend strength is 0 [88]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in oscillating consolidation, and 10 short positions can be held at discretion. The freight rate index has declined, and the trading volume and position of relevant futures have changed [90].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the dry bulk shipping industry, focusing on the impact of various economic and policy factors on shipping demand and supply dynamics [1][2][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Anti-Competition Policies**: The anti-competition policies have led to an increase in domestic coal prices, widening the price gap between domestic and imported coal, which stimulates coal imports and supports dry bulk shipping demand, particularly in the context of China's reliance on thermal power [1][4]. 2. **Iron Ore Market Dynamics**: High steel production levels and recovering profits have resulted in low iron ore inventories at ports, creating strong replenishment demand. The increase in iron ore imports from Brazil, despite longer shipping distances, is expected to benefit the dry bulk shipping market [1][5][6]. 3. **Commodity Price Trends**: The dry bulk shipping market is closely tied to commodity prices. In the first half of 2024, despite falling commodity prices, traders balanced inventory costs with low-priced iron ore, supporting the shipping market. A rebound in iron ore prices in the second half of 2025 is anticipated to drive strong replenishment demand [1][7][8]. 4. **Global Economic Conditions**: The entry of major economies (US, China, Europe) into a monetary easing cycle is expected to increase liquidity in the commodity market, despite downward pressure on iron ore supply. This trend is likely to stimulate replenishment activities among traders, enhancing shipping market conditions [8][9]. 5. **Vale's Production Plans**: Vale plans to increase iron ore production by 120 million tons, which represents about 7% of the global shipping volume. This is expected to positively impact the market in the latter half of 2025 [8][10]. 6. **Alumina Market Growth**: The alumina market, particularly imports from Guinea, is expected to grow significantly, benefiting large bulk carriers due to long shipping distances and increasing downstream consumption [2][12]. 7. **Shipping Market Recovery**: The shipping market is gradually recovering, aided by the elimination of older vessels due to environmental regulations, which alleviates pressure from new ship deliveries [2][15]. 8. **BDI Index Trends**: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has stabilized around 2000 points since June 2025, with expectations to reach 2500 to 3000 points during the peak season, indicating a recovery in the shipping market [16]. 9. **Company Performance**: - **Zhongshan Shipping**: The largest dry bulk fleet operator, with significant profit elasticity. A rise in BDI by 1000 points could increase profits by approximately 1.2 to 1.3 billion yuan [17]. - **Haitong Development**: Despite a significant profit decline in the first half of the year, potential profit could double if the BDI index recovers to 2500 points next year [18]. - **Guohang Ocean**: Noted for its stock volatility, but is expected to be a key player as the shipping market recovers [19]. Other Important Insights - The relationship between the commodity market and dry bulk shipping is influenced by both downstream consumption and supply-side release rhythms, with disruptions in miner shipping schedules affecting transport efficiency [6]. - Environmental regulations are expected to accelerate the retirement of older vessels, which may improve overall shipping efficiency despite the influx of new ships [14][15]. - The disparity in quality and pricing between domestic and imported iron ore suggests that domestic ore will primarily be used for supply security, while imported high-quality ore will be more competitive in the market [11].

Core Viewpoint - The APPEC (Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference) aims to enhance information sharing and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific energy market, focusing on "energy security" and "sustainable development" for the 2025 conference, which will strengthen the region's role in global energy transition [1]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The APPEC has evolved over 40 years into a key platform connecting governments, businesses, and academia, with its discussions often referenced in global energy policy-making [1]. - The 2025 APPEC will feature the "China Energy Futures Seminar" organized by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), focusing on energy derivatives markets and international cooperation [1]. Group 2: Event Details - The seminar is scheduled for September 10, 2025, from 14:00 to 17:00 at LSEG's Singapore office [3]. - The agenda includes a welcome address, discussions on crude oil market challenges and opportunities, and the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Asian petrochemical industry [4][5]. Group 3: Expert Participation - Key speakers include Victor Rubtsov, Emril Jamil, and Sok Peng Chua, who will provide insights on market trends and the implications of geopolitical events on the oil and petrochemical markets [9]. - The seminar will also feature discussions on the opening process of China's futures market and opportunities for foreign investors [6].

供需：周内除中海壳因装置问题损失部分产量外，其它装置均稳定生产；华东主港因台风影响，到货小 于提货，库存下幅下降，但市场供应仍充足。主力下游三S周产量预计小增，但月初现货采购意向低 迷。供需基本面延续弱势。 预测：本周苯乙烯价格主要跟随大宗商品市场涨跌波动，短期原料端仍难有单边指向，自身供需基本面 延续弱势，而京博思达睿装置投产后或进一步加剧供需矛盾，施压价格弱势运行。 来源：卓创资讯 本周苯乙烯价格跌后小幅反弹，截至8月6日江苏市场收盘均价在7325元/吨，较上周三下跌75元/吨，跌 幅1.01%。 成本：油市利空消息连续释放，国际油价连续下跌，截至8月6日收盘，布伦特油价较上周三下跌 8.67%；纯苯先跌后涨，下跌主要受原油及期货盘面弱势影响，而上涨一方面受期货盘面反弹提振，另 一方面北方供应趋紧带动涨幅扩大，截至8月6日收盘，华东市场均价较上周三小跌20元/吨。原料端仍 缺乏单边驱动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market has cooled down significantly after a period of exuberance, with major declines observed in various commodities such as coking coal and lithium carbonate [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Coking coal prices fell over 10%, while coking coal and lithium carbonate dropped by 7.44% and 7.98% respectively [2] - Other commodities like glass and soda ash also experienced declines exceeding 7% [2] - The Wind coal index dropped by 2.79%, with specific companies like Zhongshan Xifeng Coal and Zhengzhou Coal Power seeing declines of over 5% [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent supply-side contraction expectations have led to significant price increases in coking coal (over 40%) and coking coal (over 20%) in the previous week [2] - Research indicates that most coal mines in Shanxi have not received formal notices regarding overproduction, and production has not yet been affected [3] - In regions like Shaanxi, some coal mines are still in self-inspection stages without halting production, while others in Henan, Shandong, and Anhui report low production capacity due to resource depletion [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The recent price increases in coking coal and coking coal have been driven by expectations of reduced production, with the price of metallurgical coke reaching 1430 yuan/ton [3] - Steel mills have reduced maintenance and increased production, which may lead to a rise in output in the coming week [4] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has implemented trading limits on coking coal futures to manage market volatility [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment for bulk commodities is strong, and methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The international methanol device operating rate has slightly increased, imports are gradually recovering, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories are accumulating. The domestic coal price continues to decline, the profit of coal - to - methanol has expanded to the highest level in history, and the domestic supply is loose. However, the recent strong rebound of domestic bulk commodities has improved the market atmosphere [4]. - Trading strategies suggest a bullish and fluctuating trend for unilateral trading, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw material coal**: As of July 24, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 48%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was around 4 million tons, with good demand and firm pit - mouth prices [4]. - **Supply side**: The price of raw material coal is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is firm, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, with continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - **Import side**: The international methanol device operating rate continues to rise, the US dollar price has slightly decreased, imports are back in a positive spread situation. Iranian devices are gradually increasing their loads, non - Iranian devices are operating stably, the external market operating rate has reached a new high this year, the European and American markets continue to decline, the price difference between China and Europe has flattened, the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 600,000 tons in July, and continues to lower the price for tendering. Some Indian supplies are flowing to China, non - Iranian supplies are increasing, the arrival in Taicang is increasing, and inventory accumulation is accelerating [4]. - **Demand side**: The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, but some MTO devices are operating at less than full capacity [4]. - **Inventory**: The arrival of imports has increased, port inventories are accumulating, and the basis is firm; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of July 24, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 70.37%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week but an increase of 8.22 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 65.47%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From July 19 - 25, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol output was 1,056,853 tons, an increase of 19,250 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 72.45%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of July 23, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 173,800 tons [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of July 24, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 79.28%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 86.08%, with a slight decrease in the load of East China olefin enterprises [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 5.19%, remaining the same as last week; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 92.69%, a slight increase; the formaldehyde operating rate was 37.74%, a decrease from last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous statistical date, a year - on - year decrease of 17.46% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 244,800 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.70% [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of July 23, 2025, the total port inventory was 725,800 tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Valuation**: In the northwest region, the profit of coal - to - methanol was around 735 yuan/ton. The price difference between the port and the north line was 440 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the port and northern Shandong was 150 yuan/ton. The MTO loss was narrowing, and the basis was weakening [5]. - **Spot prices**: The price in Taicang was 2480 (+110), and the price in the north line was 2040 (+70) [8].

Core Insights - Extreme weather events are increasingly impacting global commodity markets, with significant effects on supply and demand dynamics across various sectors [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact on Commodity Markets - The extreme heat in the Northern Hemisphere has led to record high temperatures in regions such as Spain, France, and Italy, while the Southern Hemisphere is experiencing unprecedented cold [1] - Extreme weather is identified as a key factor affecting global economic stability, with events like heatwaves and droughts posing significant threats to agricultural supply chains [2][3] - High temperatures are causing electricity shortages in certain areas, which may disrupt industrial production continuity [2][3] Group 2: Price Movements and Market Reactions - The coal, non-ferrous metals, and steel sectors in the A-share market have seen significant price increases, with indices rising by 7.22%, 10.75%, and 17.94% respectively since July [3] - In the futures market, coal and steel indices have surged by 38.47% and 2.56% respectively, reflecting strong demand driven by extreme weather conditions [3][4] - Agricultural markets are experiencing mixed effects, with high temperatures potentially leading to reduced yields for crops like corn and wheat, while also benefiting others like soybeans under certain conditions [3][4] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios to mitigate risks associated with extreme weather, particularly in sectors highly sensitive to climatic changes [6][7] - The use of weather derivatives, such as temperature index futures, is recommended for hedging against potential declines in agricultural yields and price increases in commodities [8] - The development of weather-related financial instruments in China is progressing, with new temperature indices being introduced to help manage weather risks in agriculture and other sectors [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, marking the first rate reduction since March 2020, which has led to a temporary pullback in the commodity market but subsequently strong growth, particularly in rubber futures [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The federal funds rate is now set in the range of 4.75% to 5.00, reflecting a significant monetary policy shift [1] - This rate cut has immediate implications for various markets, including commodities [1] Group 2: Rubber Futures Market - Rubber futures prices surged, with a closing price of 18,020 yuan/ton on September 19, reaching a seven-year high [1] - From July 31 to September 19, the main rubber futures contract saw a notable increase of 17.47% over 35 trading days [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent natural disasters, including typhoons, have heightened uncertainty in production areas, contributing to the rapid increase in rubber prices [1] - The growth in tire production and sales is identified as the primary driver of rubber demand, while demand from other sectors remains stable [1] - There has been a continuous decline in natural rubber inventory at ports and bonded zones this year, primarily due to reduced import volumes [1] Group 4: Future Price Influencing Factors - Key factors expected to influence rubber futures prices include the duration of adverse weather in major production areas, trends in domestic inventory, and the capacity of downstream tire companies to absorb rising rubber prices [1] - The overall fundamental landscape for natural rubber has not significantly changed, with expectations for a strong market performance in the short term [1]