Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Dow Jones index increasing by approximately 300 points, up 0.69% to 45,478.26 [1] - The NASDAQ rose by 0.12% to 20,973.14, while the S&P 500 gained 0.38% to 6,392.96 [1] Sector Performance - Financial shares saw a notable increase of 1.6% on Monday [2] - In contrast, industrial stocks experienced a decline of 0.6% [2] Economic Indicators - The Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell to -0.2 in March, down from 0.2 in the previous month [3][7] Commodity Prices - Oil prices rose by 2.3% to $101.94, while gold increased by 1.7% to $4,570.20 [4] - Silver prices went up by 1.9% to $71.125, and copper saw a slight increase of 0.2% to $5.5075 [4] European Market Performance - European shares showed positive movement, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising by 0.8% [5] - Spain's IBEX 35 Index increased by 0.9%, London's FTSE 100 surged by 1.5%, Germany's DAX gained 0.9%, and France's CAC 40 rose by 0.8% [5] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets mostly closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling by 2.79% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declining by 0.81% [6] - China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.24%, while India's BSE Sensex dipped by 2.22% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The recent rebound in the lithium carbonate futures market is due to the continued export ban in Zimbabwe with no sign of recovery, which may exceed market expectations. The supply-demand imbalance persists as the resumption time in Jianxiaowo and Zimbabwe remains uncertain. Although the new energy vehicle demand decreased year-on-year in March, it showed improvement week-on-week, providing support for lithium carbonate prices. With low inventory levels, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong, and short-term interval operations are recommended [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 25, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 156,880 yuan/ton and closed at 159,120 yuan/ton, a 4.34% increase from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 233,304 lots, and the open interest was 251,957 lots, down from 260,696 lots the previous day. The current basis is -5,480 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 618 lots to 31,460 lots [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 147,000 - 158,000 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 144,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton, also up 5,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,155 US dollars/ton, up 75 US dollars/ton [1]. - Most lithium salt plants have resumed production, and the domestic supply is generally stable. However, the export policy in Zimbabwe may restrict future supply growth. The weekly total production of lithium carbonate is 24,186 tons, including 14,914 tons from spodumene, 3,197 tons from mica, 3,565 tons from salt lakes, and 3,565 tons from recycling [1]. Inventory - The spot inventory is 98,873 tons, a decrease of 86 tons from the previous week. Among them, the smelter inventory increased by 316 tons to 16,608 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 458 tons to 46,105 tons, and other inventories decreased by 860 tons to 36,160 tons. The market is still in a destocking pattern, but the pace has slowed down [2]. Comprehensive Review - The export ban in Zimbabwe has lasted for a month with no sign of recovery, which may exceed market expectations. The resumption time in Jianxiaowo and Zimbabwe is still uncertain, and the supply-demand imbalance persists [2]. - From March 1 - 22, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 495,000 units, a 17% year-on-year decrease but a 66% increase from the previous month. Although the year-on-year decline is significant, the week-on-week improvement is obvious, indicating the resilience of electric vehicle demand and providing support for lithium carbonate prices [2]. Strategy - The recent futures market has been highly volatile. With the easing of the Middle East conflict, commodities have generally risen, and funds have rotated among sectors. The energy and chemical sectors, especially crude oil, have corrected, while the non-ferrous sector has rebounded. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong, and its price performance is more robust [3]. - Given the current low inventory levels, future attention should be paid to supply changes, downstream stocking rhythms, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market. Short-term interval operations are recommended, and buying on dips is advisable [3]. - For trading strategies, short-term operations are recommended for single contracts, and there are no recommendations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is at a high level technically, with intensified fluctuations [2] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate strongly due to high sentiment in the raw material sector [2] - Ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate strongly due to sector sentiment resonance [2] - Silicomanganese has high bullish sentiment, and attention should be paid to position risks [2] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate strongly as market sentiment ferments [2] - Steam coal has strong sentiment, and port transactions have moved up [2] - Log prices are strengthening marginally and rebounding [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 819.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.43%. The price of various iron ore types increased to varying degrees, with the price of domestic iron ore rising more significantly. The basis and spreads also changed [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: The rise in iron ore prices is driven by cost and inventory structural contradictions, such as increased energy costs, low available port inventory, and restricted deliverable products. The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, and the 247 steel enterprises' daily hot metal output increased [4][5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 1 [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 increased, with trading volumes and positions changing. Spot prices in various regions also rose. The basis and spreads had corresponding changes [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: In early March 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased, and production decreased. In March 19th steel union weekly data, production increased, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. There were also data on real estate investment, industrial added value, and steel import and export [10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 1 [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures increased, and spot prices also changed. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads all had corresponding fluctuations [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Some silicon - iron furnaces were put into production, and the impact of cyclone on manganese ore was being evaluated. There was data on manganese ore import volume and inventory, and the procurement prices of some steel mills for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed [11][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 1 [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Data**: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 increased, and spot prices of some coking coals and cokes remained unchanged. The basis and spreads changed [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index increased, and the coking coal online auction had no unsold lots, with prices rising. The first round of price increase for coking coal by mainstream coking enterprises was officially launched [14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 0 [16] Steam Coal - **Price Data**: The prices of steam coal in production areas, ports, and overseas all had certain changes, and the long - term agreement prices also changed [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 23rd, the sentiment in the northern port market was positive, and it was expected that port prices would continue to rise. From January to February 2026, the national raw coal output decreased slightly [20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal (based on the spot price of steam coal in northern ports) is 1 [20] Logs - **Price Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed. The prices of log spot markets in different regions and varieties had different degrees of change, and the spreads also changed [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: The increase in demand, the rapid increase in port departure, and the increase in sea freight led to a price rebound. The GDP growth target was adjusted in the 2026 government work report, and the Shanghai real estate policy was optimized [23] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 1 [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillation [1] - Soybean Meal: Up [1] - Oils and Fats: Up [1] - Eggs: Oscillation [2] - Pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to ferment, with the rise in crude oil prices providing bullish support to the commodity market. The macro - bullish factors and the large supply of wheat in the fundamental situation create a mixed situation, causing the corn futures price to oscillate. The supply - demand fundamentals of the corn market have no significant changes, and attention should be paid to the subsequent policy - grain auctions [1]. - The CBOT soybeans closed higher on Thursday, supported by the strengthening of crude oil prices and the impact on fertilizer supply. The domestic protein meal oscillates. The decline in pig prices and the increase in losses reduce the enthusiasm for feed input, which is not conducive to the demand outlook of protein meal. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - The BMD palm oil rose on Thursday, ending a two - day decline. The domestic oils and fats oscillate, with palm oil performing weaker than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The spot market is sluggish, and high prices suppress demand. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation and the sentiment of commodities. It is recommended to reduce long positions [1][2]. - The egg futures price declined on Thursday. The short - term egg prices in the production areas may be mostly stable with a slight increase. Feed raw materials strengthen, providing some support to the egg spot price. Attention should be paid to the supply - side data and the impact of surrounding commodity prices on egg prices [2]. - The pig futures price continued to decline on Thursday. The demand support is insufficient, and most farmers have a strong willingness to sell. The pig price is in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to the impact of feed costs and surrounding commodity prices on pig prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - The Israeli military action against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks, with thousands of targets remaining to be attacked [3]. - The Pentagon is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - At the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [3]. - In 2026, China will strengthen bottom - line thinking, closely monitor changes in the international financial market and internal and external environments, and strengthen the joint monitoring and supervision of domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets [3]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 17,187.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.66 tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 317.90 tons, an increase of 6.82 tons. The number of ships at ports was 110, a decrease of 2 [3]. - The rebound in iron ore prices at the end of February was mainly due to sentiment and technical repair, lacking support from supply - demand fundamentals [3]. - The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and oil products stranded at sea [3]. - China will organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve (nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizers) to meet the fertilizer demand during the spring plowing [4]. - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, energy prices such as oil and natural gas soared, and the international fertilizer supply chain was significantly impacted. The price of the urea futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange increased by more than 20% compared to before the attack on February 28 [4]. - Iraq is ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, with a daily export volume of no more than 300,000 barrels. The Natural Resources Department of the Kurdish region refuses to resume oil exports [4]. - Due to the near - stagnation of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, Bahrain Aluminium has started a phased shutdown to reserve raw materials [4]. - As of March 12, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 54.80 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.2 tons compared to March 5 [4][5]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and basis charts, including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis of these spreads is provided [6][7][8][12][14][15][19][22][26] 3.3 Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college students' practice competition in 2023 [29]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. Her team won the title of the most potential agricultural product futures R & D team of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2013 and the top ten R & D teams in 2019, and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college students' practice competition in 2023 [29]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in the top ten R & D teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and won the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college students' practice competition in 2023 [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic lithium carbonate destocking trend continues. Although the lithium carbonate spot market has not shown significant looseness, recent macro disturbances are frequent. Geopolitical wars have impacted the non - ferrous metals sector, and capital has rotated among sectors. The lithium carbonate market is driven by sentiment, and prices are in wide - range fluctuations. However, the trends of industry inventory destocking and tight supply - demand have not reversed. Future attention should be paid to supply changes, downstream stocking rhythms, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. In the short term, interval operations are recommended, and short - term unilateral operations should be mainly on the sidelines [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 18, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 155,000 yuan/ton and closed at 150,120 yuan/ton, with a - 4.43% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume on that day was 205,889 lots, and the open interest was 307,422 lots (the previous day's open interest was 308,842 lots). According to SMM spot quotes, the current basis is 4,020 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day were 35,769 lots, a change of - 696 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 151,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 148,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,180 US dollars/ton, a change of - 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - According to the latest SMM data statistics, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate output is reported at 23,426 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7%. In February 2026, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 83,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.1% and a year - on - year increase of 29.7%. The output from January to February increased by 43.0% year - on - year [1] - The energy storage sector still maintains a good growth expectation, but the growth rate expectation of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down. This downward transmission has led to a weakened willingness of cathode material manufacturers and battery enterprises to replenish inventory, shifting from "replenishing inventory at low prices" to "purchasing on demand" [1] Inventory Analysis - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 98,959 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 414 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,292 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,184 tons; the downstream inventory is 45,647 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,890 tons; other inventories are 37,020 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,120 tons. The downstream inventory has increased, while the smelter and other inventories have decreased, and the overall destocking pattern is still maintained [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly on the sidelines in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3]

Report Overview - The report analyzes the impact of the Iran geopolitical conflict on major domestic futures varieties, covering aspects such as liquidity risk, market expectations, and volatility changes [3]. - Due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the supply gap of crude oil is relatively clear, with an upward - trending and volatile market. For downstream chemical products, most commodity valuations have reached relatively high levels, and chasing high prices is not recommended. Crude oil prices also affect the price of the oil and fat sector [3]. Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report's overall industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views by Category Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: With the continuous blockade of the Strait, the supply gap is clear, and the trend is upward with fluctuations [8]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply - demand contradictions in the near - term have been resolved by previous inventories and near - end supplies, and the market has entered a short - term adjustment phase [8]. - **P - Xylene, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, and Bottle Chips**: Short - term valuations are in place, and chasing high prices is not advisable [8]. - **Polypropylene**: Geopolitical risks continue to escalate. The supply of crude oil and propane is reduced due to shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has affected domestic supply and provided support for near - end prices [8]. - **Polyethylene**: The continuous strength of crude oil prices provides cost support. The supply of upstream cracking raw materials may be severely tightened, and domestic cracking operations are reducing production, leading to a stronger near - end of derivatives [8]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The spot price of Maersk increased by $400 to $2700/FEU in the first week of April (a 10% increase in the central price), and the valuation center of 2604 has shifted to 2000 - 2200 points. The far - month is priced according to seasonality [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The driving force is upward, but the short - term valuation is slightly high. Affected by the Middle East situation, overseas caustic soda production has been passively reduced, and the export price has increased significantly. However, the futures price has a large premium, and overseas device dynamics and Chinese export orders need to be continuously monitored [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Affected by the Iran situation, the production of chlor - alkali in South Korea and other places has been reduced, and the domestic production capacity of ethylene - based PVC has also decreased. The future Asian ethylene - based production capacity faces production reduction pressure. The market focus is on the impact duration of the Middle East situation [8]. - **LPG**: The supply problem in the Middle East remains unresolved, and there is support at the lower end. Attention should be paid to cost - end changes [8]. - **Propylene**: The import of raw material propane is blocked, and PDH devices are expected to shut down centrally. PL is expected to rise further due to cost increase and supply tightening. Attention should be paid to cost - end changes [8]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The outer - market US soybeans fluctuate greatly due to events such as China - US economic and trade consultations and the postponement of Trump's visit to China. The domestic soybean meal market sentiment is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the further progress of China - US trade events [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The trading of palm oil's energy attribute continues. The long - term high price of crude oil is likely to lead to a trend - like increase in the palm oil market after fundamental resonance [9]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of the energy attribute in the oil and fat sector continues. However, attention should be paid to the impact of the Iran event on China - US economic and trade consultations. The fluctuation of US soybeans may become a resistance for soybean oil to follow the upward trend [9]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict in the near - term has increased energy costs and disrupted spot procurement, driving the price rebound of near - end iron ore contracts. The long - term impact is small. Strategies include focusing on the 5 - 9 positive spread of iron ore and selling call options on the 09 contract with an exercise price of 850 yuan/ton [10].

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 3000 points, a decrease of more than 6% [2]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea also fell over 6%, with a peak decline of more than 7% [2][3]. Commodity Market - In the commodities market, spot gold prices fell by over 2% [3]. - Oil prices surged dramatically, with both WTI and Brent crude oil exceeding $100 per barrel, reaching a peak of $110 per barrel during trading [5][6]. Geopolitical Developments - The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and Kuwait Petroleum announced production cuts, citing storage demand and threats to shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz as reasons for the reductions [5]. - Iran's media reported the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader of Iran, following the death of the previous leader [6]. - U.S. President Trump issued threats regarding the legitimacy of Iran's new leadership, stating that the new leader must receive U.S. approval to remain in power [7]. - The Israeli Defense Forces declared intentions to target the new Iranian Supreme Leader and members of the Assembly of Experts, indicating heightened tensions in the region [8].

Market Overview - The Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 3,000 points, a decrease of more than 6% [2]. The KOSPI index in South Korea also fell by over 6%, with a peak decline exceeding 7% [2]. Commodity Market - In the commodity market, spot gold prices fell by more than 2% [3]. - Oil prices surged dramatically, with both WTI and Brent crude oil surpassing $100 per barrel, reaching a peak of $110 per barrel during trading [5]. Geopolitical Developments - The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and Kuwait Petroleum announced production cuts, with Adnoc adjusting offshore production levels to meet storage demands, while Kuwait attributed its cuts to threats from Iran regarding maritime safety in the Strait of Hormuz [5]. - Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was appointed following the death of the previous leader, Ali Khamenei. This appointment occurred amidst significant internal and external pressures, including a bombing that resulted in casualties among staff and security personnel [6]. - U.S. President Trump issued stern warnings regarding the new Iranian leadership, stating that the new leader must receive U.S. approval to remain in power, suggesting potential military involvement if a leader aligned with the previous regime is appointed [7]. - The Israeli Defense Forces declared intentions to target the new Iranian Supreme Leader and all members of the Assembly of Experts, indicating a continuation of aggressive posturing towards Iran [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Awaiting steel mill复产, the ore price rebounds from a low level [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke: The first round of price cuts has started, with wide - range fluctuations; coking coal: Wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Steam coal: Lack of upward support, short - term price with narrow - range fluctuations [2][20]. - Logs: A game between expectations and reality, with small - scale fluctuations [2][23]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of I2605 was 752.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (- 0.20%); the open interest decreased by 7,288 hands. Among spot prices, the price of most varieties declined slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on the afternoon of March 4; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26 [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,071 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,212 yuan/ton, unchanged. In terms of spot prices, the prices in some regions decreased slightly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee discussed the draft outline of the 14th Five - Year Plan and the government work report on February 27; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26; steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data showed changes in late February [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of silicon - iron contracts increased, and the trading volume and open interest were at certain levels. Spot prices of some varieties increased. There were changes in various price spreads [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of silicon - iron and silicomanganese in some regions increased; the manganese ore quotes for April 2026 from multiple mines increased; the silicon - iron electricity prices in some regions changed; the manganese ore freight rates increased; South Africa's manganese ore export volume in January 2026 increased [12][13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 increased, and the open interest decreased. Most spot prices remained stable, with a small decline in some varieties. There were changes in various price spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index decreased on March 4; the coking coal online auction on March 4 had a 28% non - successful bid rate, with prices rising and falling [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [18]. Steam Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices of steam coal in different regions and at different calorific values showed different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year. The long - term agreement prices in February decreased [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 4, the sentiment in the northern port market was average, with low trading volume. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. Indonesia set its 2026 domestic coal supply target and preliminary production target [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity based on the northern port steam coal spot price is 0 [22]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts showed different changes. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with small increases in some [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on March 4; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic situation is complex, affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy adjustments, and commodity price fluctuations. The Middle - East conflict has a significant impact on energy prices, and the economic data of various countries shows different trends. For example, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI have certain fluctuations, and the US economic expectations are generally optimistic but also face challenges [18][22]. - In the financial market, the bond market is affected by factors such as risk aversion and policy expectations, and the stock market shows different trends in different regions, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks both experiencing declines [25][35]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different price trends. For example, metals such as aluminum and platinum have supply - demand changes, and energy prices are affected by geopolitical factors [6][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP: In Q4 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of GDP at constant prices was 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - PMI: In February 2026, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points. The S&P manufacturing PMI was 52.1, the service PMI was 56.7, and the comprehensive PMI was 55.4 [1][2]. - Social Financing and Money Supply: In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 7220.8 billion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 2.7%, 4.9%, and 9.0% respectively [1]. - CPI and PPI: In January 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of CPI was 0.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of PPI was - 1.4% [1]. - Investment and Consumption: In December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3.7% [1]. - Foreign Trade: In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import amounts were 6.60% and 5.70% respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Affected by the Spring Festival, China's February official manufacturing PMI decreased, non - manufacturing PMI increased slightly, and the comprehensive PMI output index decreased. The S&P manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMIs all increased [2]. - Multiple futures exchanges adjusted the trading margin and price limit of some contracts, such as fuel oil, crude oil, and methanol futures [2][3]. - On March 4, 29 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 40 had negative basis. The basis of Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, and Zhengzhou cotton was the largest, while that of butadiene rubber and apple was the smallest [4][5]. - The US imposed a maximum 143.3% temporary counter - subsidy tax on Indonesian photovoltaic cells and components, and Indonesia was preparing countermeasures [5]. - On March 4, the container shipping index (European line) futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange mostly rose, with the April contract having the largest increase [5]. 3.2.2 Metals - On March 3, Qatar Aluminum Company started an orderly shutdown, causing the London aluminum price to soar by more than 3.8% [6]. - The Thailand Futures Exchange suspended the online futures trading of silver and expanded the daily price limit [6]. - The global platinum market will have a supply shortage of 240,000 ounces in 2026, with total demand expected to decrease by 8% and total supply expected to increase by 2% [6]. - In January, the net gold purchase of global central banks was 5 tons, significantly less than the average of the past 12 months [7]. - As of March 4, the positions of the world's largest silver and gold ETFs decreased [8]. - On March 3, the copper and tin inventories in the London Metal Exchange reached new highs, while the nickel, zinc, aluminum, and lead inventories decreased [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Indonesia reduced the nickel ore quota in 2026 by 30% compared with 2025, reformed the resource tax mechanism, and expected a domestic supply gap of 1.2 billion tons [9]. - Indonesia adjusted the nickel ore production plan to maintain supply - demand balance and support the nickel price [9]. - Indonesia's coal production target in 2026 is 733 million tons, and the coal output in January decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [9]. - A landslide occurred in a mining area in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on March 3, resulting in hundreds of people being buried [10]. - Vale expects the iron ore supply to slightly exceed demand by 2030, reaching 1.54 billion tons [11]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Due to the Middle - East situation, the EU may restart discussions on the Russian natural gas import ban, and the European natural gas price has soared by 75% this week [12]. - Thailand is one of the most vulnerable economies in Asia due to high energy import dependence. State - owned enterprises are under pressure to stabilize prices [12]. - Iraq is shutting down the production of its largest oil field due to the approaching exhaustion of oil storage space and may cut production by about 3 million barrels per day if the Holmuze crisis continues [12]. - The French economic minister said there is no risk of oil and gas shortage in the next few weeks and will not tolerate excessive fuel price increases [12]. - In the week ending February 27, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US was 3.475 million barrels, higher than expected [13]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In late February, most agricultural product prices in the circulation field rose, with cotton reaching a new high since June 2024, while most fertilizer and pesticide prices fell [14]. - US exporters sold 125,000 tons of corn to unknown buyers [15]. - Brazil's corn and soybean exports in March are expected to increase compared with the same period last year [15]. - Due to weather problems, Ukraine's rapeseed export price is expected to rise in 2026 [15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 4, the central bank conducted 40.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the same day was 369 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Important News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5 to 12, with a series of agendas and activities [17]. - The National Office of the State Council will hold a briefing on March 5 to interpret the Government Work Report [17]. - The spokesperson of the NPC said that the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft will be reviewed and approved, and policies such as expanding domestic demand and promoting the development of the private economy will be implemented [17]. - China's February official manufacturing and comprehensive PMIs decreased, while the non - manufacturing PMI increased slightly [18]. - China's February S&P manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMIs all increased [19]. - The former deputy governor of the central bank said that China's macro - policies in 2026 will be more active and moderately loose [19]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged all parties to stop military operations in the Holmuze Strait [20]. - Three departments announced tax - exemption policies for the China International Fair for Trade in Services from 2026 to 2027 [21]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the February China Commodity Price Index decreased slightly month - on - month but increased by 10.9% year - on - year [21]. - The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or more, and China will send a special envoy to the Middle - East [21]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court's veto of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the US will provide insurance for ships in the Persian Gulf [22]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination may face obstacles [22]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that the economic outlook is generally optimistic, but some regions' economic activities are flat or declining [22]. - The OECD said that the developed countries' government bond issuance scale will reach a record high of $18 trillion in 2026, and the bond market faces challenges [23]. - There are bond - related events such as overdue debts and bond redemptions of some companies [23]. - Some companies' credit ratings were adjusted [24]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China was strong, with the yields of interest - rate bonds falling, and the bond futures of most contracts rising [25]. - The exchange bond market had different trends for different bonds, and the real - estate and high - yield urban investment bond indexes rose slightly [26]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell [27]. - Most money - market interest rates showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [27][28]. - The yields of some financial bonds and treasury bonds were determined through bidding [29]. - European bond yields generally fell, while US bond yields rose [29][30]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On March 4, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted down [31]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities suggested pre - arranging South Korean government bonds as they will be included in the WGBI in April 2026, which is expected to bring $50 - 60 billion of passive funds [32]. - CITIC Securities analyzed the PPI cycle and pointed out that predicting PPI trends requires considering both domestic and foreign factors [32]. - Western Fixed - Income believes that the credit - bond market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern in March, and suggests controlling duration and using leverage strategies [33]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 5, 207 bonds will be listed, 154 bonds will be issued, 58 bonds will be paid, and 140 bonds will pay principal and interest [34]. 3.4 Stock Market News - A - shares adjusted with reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all falling. The market focus shifted to food and fertilizer sectors, and the grid equipment and military equipment sectors rose [35]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all fell, with significant corrections in the oil and shipping sectors and general declines in technology stocks [35][36]. - FTSE Russell will adjust the FTSE China A50 Index, including China State Shipbuilding, Tianfu Communication, and Wanhua Chemical, with the adjustment taking effect on March 20, 2026 [36].