人民财讯7月31日电，国泰海通证券研报表示，通过对比煤炭行业当前与其他周期性行业(如多晶硅、玻 璃)在供给组成上的深层次差异，国泰海通证券认为煤炭行业已经摆脱"现金流压力下的囚徒困境"， 2025年第二季度或将成为中期行业基本面底部区域，维持行业"增持"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry has emerged from the "cash flow pressure prisoner’s dilemma," with the second quarter of 2025 potentially marking the bottom of the mid-term industry fundamentals [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal industry has transitioned from a state of "cash flow pressure prisoner’s dilemma," with significant improvements in supply and demand fundamentals, indicating that the sector may have reached the bottom of the current cycle, maintaining an "overweight" rating [2]. - The supply-side reform has led to central state-owned enterprises dominating the industry, accounting for approximately 85% of the top 50 market share [3]. - From 2021 to 2024, the industry is expected to see substantial profit improvements and a rapid decline in debt ratios, alleviating repayment pressures [3]. - The National Energy Administration has indicated a shift away from "involution" in the coal industry, with a recovery in total electricity demand and a projected increase in coal demand by over 1% starting in May 2025 [4]. Price and Production Dynamics - The price of coal at ports fell below 650 RMB/ton in April 2025, leading to a significant reduction in production, aligning with economic principles of self-induced production cuts due to economic conditions [3]. - The combination of government regulatory measures and a decrease in imported coal is expected to stabilize total supply while allowing for a gradual decline [4].

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，2015年的煤炭、2025年的多晶硅、光伏玻璃等行业跌至甚至 跌破现金成本仍然在生产。如果没有外部扰动因素，需要等到行业内标致性的头部企业出清出市场，行 业可能才至底部。该行认为当前煤炭行业已经走出过往"现金流压力下的囚徒困境"，从供给和需求两方 面看板块基本面或已经到达此轮周期底部，维持行业"增持"评级。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 从多晶硅、玻璃到2015年的煤炭：囚徒困境下的现金流博弈 1)供给侧改革后央国企成为行业主导(TOP50中央国企占比约85%份额);2)2021-2024年盈利大幅度改善， 行业负债率快速下降，基本已无偿债压力;3)政府具备技术监管手段及产能限制政策(安监局要求产能利 用率不能超过110%)，共同促进煤炭行业供给格局大幅度改善，已经"不一样"。从2025年4月港口价格 跌破650元/吨，全国出现大范围大规模的产量下降，就是印证了经济学原理"经济性导致的企业自发减 产"行为。 供需走出底部，国家能源局发声煤炭"反内卷" 该行认为2025Q1暖冬天气因素导致的总量需求不及预期已经过去，随着全社会用电总量的快速恢复，5 月开始电煤需求已经开始恢复1 ...