随着基金半年度报告陆续出炉，作为"基金专业买手"，公募FOF的调仓思路更清晰地展现在投资者面 前。总体来看，在今年上半年业绩和规模实现双增长的公募FOF依旧认可权益资产的吸引力，以及行情 的结构性特征，并将继续捕捉轮动中的市场机会。具体来看，绩优FOF产品对稀土、创新药、科技、黄 金等方向依然看好并重仓持有，对部分短期涨幅过大的板块执行再平衡策略，还有部分基金经理已经开 始左侧布局消费方向，力争精准"卡位"行业拐点。 ...

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 13 日 华峰化学 (002064) ——氨纶盈利韧性凸显，己二酸短期承压，业绩符合预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 7.90 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 9.24/6.41 | | 市净率 | 1.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.90 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 39,094 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,665.92/11,351.63 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.39 | | 资产负债率% | 25.69 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 4,963/4,949 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-12 09-12 10-12 11-12 12-12 01-12 02-12 03-12 04-1 ...

报告导读： 通过对比煤炭行业当前与其他周期性行业（如多晶硅、玻璃）在供给组成上的 深层次差异，我们认为煤炭行业已经摆脱"现金流压力下的囚徒困境"， 2025Q2 或将成为 中期行业基本面底部区域。 法律声明 投资建议：我们认为煤炭行业已经走出过往"现金流压力下的囚徒困境"，从供给和需求两方面看板块基本 面或已经到达此轮周期底部 ， 维持行业"增持"评级 。 从多晶硅、玻璃到 2015 年的煤炭：囚徒困境下的现金流博弈。 从微观经济学原理，当产品价格跌破平 均总成本时企业应减产；跌破平均可变成本（现金成本） 时则关停，但是实际经济运行中，我们发现 2015 年的煤炭、 2025 年的多晶硅、光伏玻璃等行业跌至甚至跌破现金成本仍然在生产。我们总结 为"现金流压力下的囚徒困境"，即相关行业实际运行与经济学原理产生相悖的原因来自于重资产、供给侧 民营企业主导特征，由于新增产能近期集中投放导致行业负债率及偿债压力高企，即使面对行业供需格局 的快速恶化，为了"生存"被迫进入"内卷"境遇，如果没有外部扰动因素，需要等到行业内标致性的头部企 业出清出市场，行业可能才至底部。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry is showing signs of profit margin improvement, indicating a potential industry turning point [3] - In 2024, China's cumulative installed capacity of power batteries reached 548.4 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 41.5%, maintaining a high growth rate [8][6] - The industry is experiencing a concentration of profits towards the battery segment, with the net profit of the lithium battery and materials industry reaching 61.52 billion yuan in 2024, of which 59.09 billion yuan came from the battery segment, accounting for 96% of the total [12][10] Demand Trends - The cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China for 2024 is 548.4 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.5% [8][6] - The overall demand for lithium battery materials remains robust, with the total sales of power and other batteries in 2024 reaching 1,039.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [8] Supply Trends - Since 2024, there has been a continuous resistance in quantity and price on the supply side, with clearer marginal changes in segments like copper foil [9] - Events such as production cuts and price adjustments in the lithium battery supply chain have contributed to the supply-side dynamics [9] Profitability Indicators - The net profit growth rate for the lithium battery and materials industry turned positive in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 32%, marking the first positive growth since 2023 [12][10] - The profitability of the industry is increasingly concentrated in the battery segment, with the battery segment's net profit margin improving [12][10] Cash Flow Analysis - The overall cash flow in the industry, measured as "cash on hand minus short-term borrowings," has been experiencing negative year-on-year growth, with CATL accounting for approximately 95% of the industry's cash flow [15][17] - As of Q1 2025, the cash flow situation for segments like iron lithium, negative electrodes, and copper foil remains negative [19] Capital Expenditure Trends - In Q1 2025, the capital expenditure in the lithium battery industry showed a year-on-year growth of 6%, marking the first positive growth in nearly two years, primarily driven by the battery segment [20][22] - Excluding CATL, the overall capital expenditure in the industry continues to decline year-on-year, although the rate of decline has narrowed [25] Inventory Levels - The current inventory levels in the industry are considered rational, with the inventory-to-total-assets ratio showing positive year-on-year growth since Q4 2024 [26][27]

Investment Rating - The report recommends an overweight allocation to leading companies in the chemical industry at this time [1] Core Viewpoints - The recovery of the real estate market is significantly supporting the demand for chemical materials, particularly in new and second-hand home renovations, with a notable increase in transaction volumes in major cities [3][4] - Anticipated policy measures from the upcoming Two Sessions are expected to benefit the chemical industry, particularly in refining and ethylene sectors, by optimizing industrial layout and increasing high-end capacity supply [3][4] - The cost pressures on chemical companies have substantially eased due to a significant decline in coal prices and oil prices, which enhances profitability [4] - The valuation of leading chemical stocks is at historical lows, with the price-to-book ratio of CITIC's segmented chemical leaders at only 2.03 times, indicating potential for value re-evaluation [5] - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for the petrochemical industry, with capital expenditures declining and new capacity releases concluding, leading to a gradual improvement in industry conditions [6] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Impact - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with a 3% year-on-year increase in transaction volume across 30 major cities and a 45% increase in second-hand home transactions in key cities, which supports chemical demand [3][4] Policy Expectations - The upcoming Two Sessions may introduce favorable policies for the chemical industry, focusing on eliminating outdated capacity and enhancing high-end production [3][4] Cost Pressure Relief - Recent declines in coal prices (down 200-300 RMB/ton) and oil prices (around $70/barrel) have significantly reduced cost pressures for major chemical companies, improving their profitability [4] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-book ratio for leading chemical stocks is at a low historical level, suggesting a disconnect between stock prices and fundamental improvements, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [5] Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a recovery phase post-2025, following a three-year down cycle, with capital expenditures decreasing and new capacity reaching its peak [6] Company-Specific Developments - Wanhua Chemical is facing challenges but has strong fundamentals in its MBIA business, with prices for key products at high levels, indicating potential for profit growth [7][8] - Hualu Hengsheng's urea business is performing well with over 3 million tons of capacity and improving profitability despite price fluctuations [12] - Longbai Group is expected to see improved profitability due to limited global titanium ore supply and increased production capacity [21] - Baofeng Energy is benefiting from lower coal prices, leading to significant profit growth in its coal-to-olefins projects [22]