南非顶级投资公司Ninety One Plc的资深基金经理指出，鉴于南非非大宗商品类企业股价目前深度折 价，且2025年表现落后于本地债券及整体股指，这类股票明年有望迎来反弹。 今年以来，贵金属价格飙升推动南非基准股票指数以美元计涨幅超50%，跑赢欧洲、新兴市场及美国股 指。以ALBI指数衡量的本地政府债券回报率达38%，十年期兰特债券收益率从4月高点骤降四分之一至 8.36%。 目前，其Value Fund已增持本土股票，目前投资组合中南非股票占比达50%(远超基准指数的约35%配置 比例)，他还计划，若股价进一步下探，将继续加仓。 据Bickard透露，该基金约半数资金配置于股息收益率近6%的中型企业，Bidvest Group Ltd.和 Woolworths Holdings Ltd.等股息率约4%的大型本土企业占比约20%。整体而言，该基金的市盈率约为8 倍，综合股息率接近5%。 Bickard解释道，若采用未来现金流折现估值法(通常以国债收益率等无风险利率作为折现率)计算，聚焦 本土的股票理应获得更高估值。"这完全不合逻辑，因为股票本质上是债券的杠杆化估值。尽管众人称 赞南非债券表现优异且持续看好 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes investing in high-growth opportunities across various industries while employing a value investing approach that prioritizes robust business models and strategic foresight [1] - The focus is on companies that have the potential to significantly influence the global landscape in the coming years [1] - The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation methodology is primarily used, but the analysis remains adaptable to various valuation techniques [1] - Business model frameworks from institutions like Harvard Business School are leveraged for in-depth analysis, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of a company's intrinsic value and strategic positioning [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is centered on long-term growth potential and risk mitigation [1] - The approach includes a thorough analysis of a company's business model to facilitate informed investment decisions [1] - The analyst's educational background includes an MBA from IESE Business School and being a chartered financial analyst with the CFA Institute, which adds credibility to the analysis [1]