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市场策略周报:土储专项债重启,收储节奏有望提速-20250319
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-02-20 03:12
Core Insights - The report indicates that the resumption of land reserve special bonds is expected to improve the cash flow statements of local state-owned enterprises and urban investment companies [2][4][6] - The issuance of local government bonds is projected to significantly increase in the coming week, with a total issuance scale of 1.39 trillion yuan [4][9] - Special refinancing bonds are being issued at a faster pace compared to new local bonds, with a total issuance scale of 711.5 billion yuan, accounting for 51% of local bond issuance [4][9] Group 1: Land Reserve Special Bonds - As of February 16, the disclosed scale of land reserve special bonds in Guangdong Province is 39.7 billion yuan, with urban investment and state-owned enterprises accounting for 93.9% of the total [4][6] - The acquisition of idle land primarily focuses on land from 2021 to 2023, with respective proportions of 25.0%, 28.5%, and 20.6% for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, totaling 74.1% [4][6] Group 2: Local Government Bond Issuance - Currently, 859.1 billion yuan of local government bonds have been issued, with an expected issuance of 527.5 billion yuan in the upcoming week [4][9] - The new local bonds (including new general bonds and new special bonds) have a total scale of 581.5 billion yuan, with Guangdong, Hebei, Hubei, Beijing, and Sichuan leading in issuance amounts [4][9][12] Group 3: Credit Market Overview - In the past week, the overall valuation of non-financial credit bonds and perpetual bonds has increased, with specific yield changes for various ratings of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds [15][18] - The net financing in the primary market for non-financial credit bonds turned negative, with a total issuance of 199 billion yuan [18][19]