市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 1月制造业PMI录得49.3，景气度再度回落。高频数据来看：生产端年初表现平稳，需求端地产略有改 善，价格端食品分化、大宗商品有色金属价格冲高回落。 海外市场 特朗普总统宣布将提名鹰派理事凯文·沃什担任下届美联储主席。10年期美债收盘在4.26%，较前周上行 2BP。 权益市场 上周A股冲高回落，万得全A收跌1.59%。板块分化，军工、汽车、计算机等领跌，有色板块在交易极 端过热后大跌。成交放量，上周日均成交量3.06万亿，周度日均成交量增加2643.04 亿。截至2026年1月 29日，全A融资余额27221.87 亿，较1月22日增加146.79亿。 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为0亿、4393亿和1850亿，净融资额为-1133 亿、3109亿和1830亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模718亿，净融资额526亿。非金信用债共计发 行规模2945亿，净融资额1498亿。转债暂无新券发行。 二级市场回顾 债市情绪继续修复，十年期国债收益率临近1.8%。主要影响因素包括：配置盘机构行为、房地产政 策、股市波动。 流动性跟踪 地方债发行加速，叠加跨月扰动， ...

市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为5150亿、2316亿和1875亿，净融资额为3443 亿、2032亿和1875亿。非金信用债共计发行规模3226亿，净融资额1519亿。转债新券发行2只，预计融 资规模29亿元。 二级市场回顾 上周利率普遍下行，超长债及普信债表现较好。主要影响因素包括：债券配置需求旺盛、央行投放增 加、股市震荡。 流动性跟踪 上周公开市场净投放2295亿，央行超量7000亿续做MLF，国库现金定存到期1500亿，税期资金体感不 紧。 政策与基本面 财政部：2026年财政总体支出力度"只增不减"，央行：今年降准降息还有一定的空间。2025年四季度实 际GDP同比4.5%，全年增长5%，12月工增超预期，但投资消费低于预期。 海外市场 美欧就格陵兰岛问题发生纠纷，叠加日本政府提前解散众议院为财政扩张做准备，美日长债收益率一度 大幅上行，特朗普撤销对欧关税威胁及日本发声维稳后恐慌情绪明显转暖。全周来看，美元指数跌 1.9%，贵金属大涨，美欧股指普跌，美债利率基本持平。 市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别 ...

一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为2070亿、748亿和1698亿，净融资额为-2992 亿、656亿和411亿。非金信用债共计发行规模2786亿，净融资额490亿。转债新券发行2只，预计融资规 模21.8亿元。 二级市场回顾 上周利率债收益率下行，国债及二永债表现较好。主要影响因素包括：结构性降息落地、央行投放增 加、股市震荡。 流动性跟踪 上周公开市场净投放8128亿，央行超量3000亿续做6个月期买断式逆回购，资金有所转松。 政策与基本面 央行下调结构性货币政策工具利率，换房退个税政策第二次延期。12月出口及金融数据好于预期，但 M1增速继续回落。 海外市场 中东局势持续发酵，美国核心通胀降温，鲍威尔称收到美国司法部传票。上周美元小幅升值，美股下 跌，美债收益率上行。 权益市场 上周A股指数高位震荡，万得全A收涨0.49%。电子、有色领涨，资金回归业绩与景气兼具的方向。成 交放量，上周日均成交量3.47万亿，周度日均成交量增加6131.10 亿。截至2026年1月15日，全A融资余 额27012.16 亿，较1月8日大幅增加980.73亿。 债市策略展望 政策端对"十五五 ...

市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为2070亿、748亿和1698亿，净融资额为-2992 亿、656亿和411亿。非金信用债共计发行规模2786亿，净融资额490亿。转债新券发行2只，预计融资规 模21.8亿元。 二级市场回顾 上周利率债收益率下行，国债及二永债表现较好。主要影响因素包括：结构性降息落地、央行投放增 加、股市震荡。 流动性跟踪 上周公开市场净投放8128亿，央行超量3000亿续做6个月期买断式逆回购，资金有所转松。 政策与基本面 海外市场 央行下调结构性货币政策工具利率，换房退个税政策第二次延期。12月出口及金融数据好于预期，但 M1增速继续回落。 中东局势持续发酵，美国核心通胀降温，鲍威尔称收到美国司法部传票。上周美元小幅升值，美股下 跌，美债收益率上行。 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为2070亿、748亿和1698亿，净融资额为-2992 亿、656亿和411亿。非金信用债共计发行规模2786亿，净融资额490亿。转债新券发行2只，预计融资规 模21.8亿元。 权益市场 上周A股指数高位震荡，万得全A收涨0.49%。电子 ...

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 296 billion, 40 billion, and 40.1 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -47.3 billion, 28.1 billion, and 40.1 billion [1][6] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance scale of 135.6 billion, with a net financing amount of 25 billion. Non-financial credit bonds had an issuance scale of 251.1 billion, with a net financing amount of 56.7 billion. No new convertible bonds were issued [1][6] Secondary Market Review - The sentiment in the bond market continues to recover, with short- to medium-term interest rates performing well. Key influencing factors include central bank open market operations, expectations of interest rate cuts, and institutional behavior in bond allocation [2][7] - The central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase agreement, signaling support for the year-end funding situation. The final R001 and R007 rates increased by 0.4 basis points and 0.7 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [2][7] Policy and Fundamentals - November economic data fell short of expectations, with weak performance in investment and consumption. High-frequency data indicates a weak production sector towards year-end, a downturn in real estate demand, a rebound in exports, and a mixed price trend with food prices diverging and most production material prices strengthening [3][8] Overseas Market - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for November showed resilience, but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) weakened beyond expectations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.16%, down 3 basis points from the previous week [4][9] Equity Market - The A-share index experienced significant fluctuations last week, with the Wind All A index slightly down by 0.15%. There was structural differentiation, with retail trade and basic chemicals leading gains, while electronics and power equipment lagged. The market lacked major sector opportunities, with average daily trading volume decreasing to 1.76 trillion, down 192.5 billion from the previous week. As of December 18, 2025, the total financing balance for All A was 24,825.32 billion, a decrease of 7.597 billion from December 11 [5][10] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market remains in a volatile state. The central bank's willingness to cut reserve requirements or interest rates in the short term is limited, focusing instead on facilitating the monetary transmission mechanism. The downward space for bond yields is yet to be opened, while the upward space remains constrained. The adjustment of long-term interest rates at year-end is primarily driven by sell-off operations to balance duration risk in a volatile market. The current yield spread for 10-30 year government bonds has risen to 40 basis points, approaching a risk balance point. However, the bond market is expected to trend towards a stronger stance as year-end approaches, with continued allocation from banks and insurance companies. The convertible bond index is also experiencing fluctuations, with a shift from "extraordinary" to "normal" settings in important meetings. Liquidity and institutional behavior remain key indicators, with a focus on risk-reward ratios in the convertible bond market [11]

智通财经整理） 交易所债券市场收盘，据Choice 数据统计显示，今日交易所市场非金信用债涨幅排行前五的分别是： 22万科04、24深铁06、22万科02、23万科01、21万科04。具体如下： | | | | | 交易所非金信用债涨幅TOP10 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 最新收盘价 | 液幅(%) | 成交额(万元) | 最新YTM | YTM漆跌BP | 债券评级 | | 149931 | 22万科04 | 26.6525 | 18.46 | 2.85 | 55.4134 | -850.35 | AAA | | 148641 | 24元 06 | 100.3095 | 2.96 | 1404.33 | 2.93 | -27.04 | AAA | | 149815 | 22万科02 | 23.3245 | 2.28 | 81.54 | 239.25 | -475 | AAA | | 148380 | 23万科01 | 25.0166 | 2.13 | 819.28 | 504,294 | -13 ...

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 223 billion, 108.7 billion, and 99 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -33.8 billion, 60.5 billion, and -106.5 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance scale of 134.6 billion, with a net financing amount of 71.4 billion. Non-financial credit bonds had an issuance scale of 220.7 billion, with a net financing amount of 61 billion [1] - Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 270 million [1] Secondary Market Review - Long-term bonds continue to face pressure, leading to another adjustment in the bond market. Key influencing factors include the central bank's November government bond trading volume, the Vanke incident, and the political bureau meeting [2] Liquidity Tracking - At the beginning of December, the funding environment is seasonally loose. The final R001 and R007 rates decreased by 5.3 basis points and 2.6 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - He Lifeng held a video call with the U.S. Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative to promote stable and positive Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations. High-frequency data shows a mixed performance on the production side, weak demand in real estate exports, and a mixed price trend with most production material prices rebounding [4] Overseas Market - U.S. employment data showed mixed results, while expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan increased, leading to a decline in U.S. long-term bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.14%, up 12 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - Last week, A-shares were positively influenced by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, with prices of silver, copper, and aluminum rising, resulting in a notable performance in the non-ferrous sector with a weekly increase of 5.35%. The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.70 trillion, down 40.745 billion from the previous week. As of December 4, 2025, the total financing balance across A-shares was 24,664.78 billion, an increase of 11.493 billion from November 27 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market's oscillating pattern remains unbroken, but short-term pressure on long-term bonds continues. On one hand, the basic economic outlook for 2026 suggests marginal stabilization, but the upward slope is not steep. Before a clear recovery in fundamentals, the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a necessity for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates. The market's short-term expectations for monetary policy are relatively pessimistic [7] - On the other hand, the trend of deposit liquidity has increased the instability of banks' liabilities but has also effectively reduced their costs. After the disturbances from deposit disintermediation dissipate, the cost-effectiveness of banks in bond allocation is expected to rise again. Additionally, the central bank's resumption of government bond trading serves dual purposes of fiscal and monetary coordination and yield curve adjustment, indicating that bond yields still have an upper limit [7] - The traditional bond market configuration in mid to late December is still anticipated. The convertible bond index is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with recent movements in convertible bond funding being a major focus. The long-term logic of convertible bonds remains intact, with no reversal in supply-demand relationships and policy support for economic stability not fully dissipated [7]

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 252.2 billion, 351.4 billion, and 112.5 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 39.1 billion, 325.9 billion, and 112.5 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance scale of 195.7 billion with a net financing amount of 143.9 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance scale of 328.1 billion and a net financing amount of 113.5 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The bond market showed weak performance due to concerns over bond fund redemptions and risks associated with real estate bonds, influenced by rumors of new redemption fees and the Vanke incident [2][9] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's MLF operations released signals of support, maintaining a stable funding environment across the month, with R001 and R007 rates rising by 3.8 basis points and 2.7 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3][11] Policy and Fundamentals - Industrial profits significantly declined in October, and the manufacturing PMI for November remained weak. High-frequency data indicates a divergence in production performance, with weak demand in real estate and exports but strong consumer spending related to travel. Prices for food and production materials have mostly rebounded [4][12] Overseas Market - Federal Reserve officials expressed dovish sentiments, and weak performance in the U.S. September PPI and sales data led to increased expectations for a rate cut in December FOMC. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.02%, down 4 basis points from the previous week [5][13] Equity Market - A-shares rebounded significantly last week, influenced by gains in U.S. tech stocks, with leading increases in the communication, electronics, and non-ferrous sectors. The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.74 trillion, down 128.1 billion from the previous week, with market activity concentrated in communication and non-ferrous sectors [6][14] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market has shown weak performance since November, primarily due to the market's weak capacity to absorb long-term bonds. The duration of fiscal bond issuance has been increasing, and some banks' interest rate risk indicators are nearing regulatory limits. As year-end approaches, the ability of banks to absorb long-term bonds is further weakened, compounded by poor performance in insurance products. The bond market curve may continue to steepen, with cautious investor sentiment expected to persist [7][15]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at a new high, influenced by the strong performance of risk assets [1] - Bond market yields rose, with the 5-7 year government bond yields increasing significantly, and the 10-year yield up by 0.4 basis points [1] Bond Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.26%, the 10-year down by 0.10%, the 5-year down by 0.08%, and the 2-year down by 0.01% [1] - As of 16:30, the yield on the 10-year government bond was reported at 1.805%, up by 0.4 basis points, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield was at 1.8765%, also up by 0.4 basis points [1] Auction Results - The weighted average rates for recent bond auctions were as follows: 1-year government bond at 1.4847%, 5-year at 1.7201%, and 10-year at 1.8921% [3] - The bid-to-cover ratios for these auctions were 2.86 for the 1-year bond, 2.82 for the 5-year bond, and 4.03 for the 10-year bond, indicating strong demand [3] Credit Bond Market - The top five gainers in the non-financial credit bond market included H0中骏02, 23万科01, and 23产融06, with respective price increases of 4.29% and 3.25% [4] - Conversely, the top five losers included 24金隅K1 and 22万科04, with declines of 5.77% and 4.99% respectively [4] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 190 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 972 billion yuan for the day [5] - Overnight SHIBOR fell to 1.3150%, down by 10 basis points, while the 7-day SHIBOR remained unchanged at 1.4740% [5] Interbank Rates - Most interbank repo rates declined, with FR001 down by 8 basis points to 1.4% and FR007 down by 1 basis point to 1.5% [5] - The rates for various tenors showed a general downward trend, indicating easing liquidity conditions in the market [5]

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 0 billion, 270.7 billion, and 142 billion respectively, with net financing of 0 billion, 178 billion, and 142 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 92.1 billion with a net financing of 24.7 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 218.7 billion and a net financing of 3.6 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The central bank announced the resumption of government bond trading operations, leading to a decline in bond market yields, influenced by signals of monetary easing and weak economic data [2] Liquidity Tracking - As the month-end approaches, the funding environment remains stable, with R001 and R007 rates rising by 2.7 basis points each compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - The October manufacturing PMI indicates significant downward pressure on traditional industries, with high-frequency data showing stable production at month-end, continued weakness in real estate consumption, and a mixed price performance [4] Overseas Market - The trade sentiment between China and the U.S. has improved, while Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has adopted a hawkish stance. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.11%, up 9 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - A-shares experienced a pullback after initially rising due to positive developments in U.S.-China negotiations and overcrowding in the tech sector. The Wind All A index fell by 0.52%, with power equipment and non-ferrous metals leading gains, while communications lagged [6] - The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 2.33 trillion, with a weekly average decrease of 528.02 billion. As of October 30, 2025, the total financing balance for all A-shares was 24,811.49 billion, an increase of 47.25 billion from October 23 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The resumption of government bond trading is expected to lead to a recovery period in the bond market, but caution is advised against chasing high prices. The central bank's focus on medium to short-term bonds is more certain, while long-term bonds may not perform as strongly in the short term [7] - In the credit bond sector, increased liquidity suggests a potential for higher allocation in flexible medium-duration investment-grade bonds and secondary capital bonds to capture capital gain opportunities [7] - For convertible bonds, the market has shown volatility influenced by U.S.-China tensions and domestic policy expectations, making it challenging to navigate. A risk-reward framework is recommended, focusing on dividend and value convertible bonds when the index approaches the upper range and on high-growth technology and export sectors when nearing the lower range [7]