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基本面弱现实为主导基调 玻璃期货盘面持续回落
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-04 06:13
12月4日,玻璃期货行情呈现震荡下行走势,截至发稿主力合约小幅下跌1.66%,报1006.00元/吨。 机构观点 光大期货:整体来看,玻璃供应下降利好因素已被消化,市场暂无新增驱动。玻璃期货盘面情绪持续回落,当前估值再次进入极低区间,关注前 方低点支撑位,另需关注产能变化、现货成交持续情况、本周库存数据、宏观情绪及政策变化。 新湖期货:整体来讲,当前基本面弱现实虽为基调,但盘面已过度反应悲观情绪,超跌后博弈空间显现。当前核心利多因素聚焦于:12月国内宏 观会议政策积极信号、偏强冷修预期、外加盘面绝对低估值修复潜在动能。操作上,建议考虑12月阶段性反弹博弈,低多为主,并持续关注冷修 兑现情况,谨防不及预期;此外基于弱现实,01合约短期注意平水附近套保压力,持续跟踪现货价格变化。 【消息面汇总】 截至12月3日,全国浮法玻璃均价1166.71元/吨,较11月份低点上涨21元/吨,上涨区域主要体现在华中,华中均价上涨80元/吨,明显超过周边区 域。 上周玻璃平均开工率环比-0.34%,周供应量环比-0.63万吨,样本企业库存环比-94.1万重箱。 11月沙河地区已有4条燃煤产线因"煤改气"政策停产冷修,12月或有后 ...
大越期货玻璃周报-20251103
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 04:53
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures first declined and then rose. The closing price of the main contract FG2601 decreased by 0.82% compared to the previous week, reaching 1083 yuan/ton. The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1048 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week [2][8][13]. - The glass supply has stabilized at a low level and is showing signs of recovery. The demand from the terminal real - estate sector remains weak, and the glass fundamentals are characterized by stable supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a downward - biased oscillation [3]. - Influenced by the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. However, the terminal real - estate demand is still weak, and the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has faded. The glass is expected to mainly operate with wide - range oscillations [5][6][7]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1092 yuan/ton to 1083 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.82%. The spot benchmark price dropped from 1052 yuan/ton to 1048 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The main basis decreased from - 40 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 12.50% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, was 1048 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week [13]. Fundamentals - Cost and Profit No specific content for cost and profit analysis provided other than the title. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%. The number of operating production lines is at a historically low level for the same period [23]. - The daily melting capacity of float glass nationwide was 161,300 tons, which is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and started to recover [25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [29]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of float glass enterprises nationwide was 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.24% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [43]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44].