交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-24 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1028元/吨，基差为-84元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5855.80万重量箱，较前一周增加0.57%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 2、深加工行业资金回款不乐观，贸易商、加工厂心态谨慎，消化原片库存为主。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给低位企稳 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-11 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货968元/吨，FG2601收盘价为964元/吨，基差为4元，期货贴 水现货；中性 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5944.20万重量箱，较前一周减少4.68%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数量历史同期低位。 ...

12月4日，玻璃期货行情呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主力合约小幅下跌1.66%，报1006.00元/吨。 机构观点 光大期货：整体来看，玻璃供应下降利好因素已被消化，市场暂无新增驱动。玻璃期货盘面情绪持续回落，当前估值再次进入极低区间，关注前 方低点支撑位，另需关注产能变化、现货成交持续情况、本周库存数据、宏观情绪及政策变化。 新湖期货：整体来讲，当前基本面弱现实虽为基调，但盘面已过度反应悲观情绪，超跌后博弈空间显现。当前核心利多因素聚焦于：12月国内宏 观会议政策积极信号、偏强冷修预期、外加盘面绝对低估值修复潜在动能。操作上，建议考虑12月阶段性反弹博弈，低多为主，并持续关注冷修 兑现情况，谨防不及预期；此外基于弱现实，01合约短期注意平水附近套保压力，持续跟踪现货价格变化。 【消息面汇总】 截至12月3日，全国浮法玻璃均价1166.71元/吨，较11月份低点上涨21元/吨，上涨区域主要体现在华中，华中均价上涨80元/吨，明显超过周边区 域。 上周玻璃平均开工率环比-0.34%，周供应量环比-0.63万吨，样本企业库存环比-94.1万重箱。 11月沙河地区已有4条燃煤产线因"煤改气"政策停产冷修，12月或有后 ...

后市来看，玻璃期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 12月3日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，玻璃期货主力合约开盘报1034.00元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至发稿，玻璃主力最高触及1039.00元，下方探低1015.00元，跌幅达1.83%附近。 11月21日-11月27日，剔除长停样本，中国LOW-E玻璃样本企业开工率环比下降1.1%至75.1%。不剔除 样本情况下，本期LOW-E开工率45.4%,环比回落1.1%，处于近几年同期低位。 据隆众资讯，本溪福耀浮法玻璃有限公司600吨生产线，11月29日点火。截至12月1日，全国深加工样本 企业订单天数均值环比增加2.4%至10.1天，同比下降17.9%。 安彩高科（600207）公告，公司拟对全资子公司河南安彩光伏新材料有限公司的900t/d光伏玻璃生产线 进行升级改造。 混沌天成期货表示，后市将逐步进入玻璃需求淡季，玻璃供给和库存压力较大，价格跌至历史低位，部 分厂家将开始冷修，玻璃盘面反弹。玻璃利润较差，价格继续下跌将会有更多厂家冷修，价格基本见 底，建议逢低买入，01合约淡季交割压力仍较大，建议逢低买入远月，关注玻璃厂家冷修落实情况和政 ...

Core Viewpoints - Glass futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 1051.00 yuan, closing at 1053.00 yuan, down 1.86% [1] - Various institutions predict a bearish outlook for the glass market in the near term, with expectations of weak performance and limited recovery in supply-demand dynamics [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - Wenkang Futures expects the glass market to maintain a weak operating trend in the short term due to a lack of strong support from supply-demand fundamentals [1] - Hualian Futures suggests that glass prices will operate within the range of 1050-1160 yuan, influenced by recent production adjustments and cautious downstream purchasing attitudes [1] - Guoxin Futures indicates that the glass market may experience bearish fluctuations, with a decrease in daily melting volume and production profits across different fuel types [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The glass market is facing a decline in production and profits, with natural gas-fueled float glass showing a weekly average profit of -157.70 yuan/ton, down 37.14 yuan/ton [2] - Total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises reached 63.136 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.654 million heavy boxes or 4.03% from the previous period, but an increase of 29.05% year-on-year [2] - Despite a reduction in supply, demand remains weak, leading to expectations of continued price pressure in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures experienced a rapid increase, with the main contract peaking at 1241.00 yuan, closing at 1240.00 yuan, reflecting a 5.00% rise [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Wulian Futures expects glass prices to maintain a fluctuating trend due to overall weak terminal demand and cautious downstream purchasing behavior [2] - Jianxin Futures anticipates that the main glass futures contract will exhibit a short-term fluctuating trend, with supply slightly increasing but still at a low level, and demand remaining weak [3] - Donghai Futures predicts short-term fluctuations in the glass market, citing stable supply and limited demand growth, alongside fluctuating policy sentiment [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows limited adjustments in production lines, leading to a relatively abundant market supply, with regional inventory performance varying significantly [2] - The overall glass production is stable, with a slight week-on-week change, while downstream processing orders have increased slightly, indicating a minor improvement in demand [4] - The float glass market is experiencing significant price increases driven by strong demand, contrasting with the overall weak demand for new housing glass [3]

Group 1: Glass Futures Market Overview - The glass futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1178.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1214.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.89% [1] - The overall market sentiment is positive due to improved fundamentals, with sales in Hubei recovering and processing plants in North China resuming operations [1] - The market is expected to remain volatile within the range of 1150 to 1200 CNY, influenced by supply-side production halts and seasonal demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Glass production remains stable with little week-on-week change, while demand growth is limited despite entering the peak season [1] - The overall supply-demand balance is loose, with policy sentiment fluctuating, leading to expectations of short-term price oscillations [1] - Companies are facing pressure on supply due to new production lines coming online, with daily melting capacity slightly increasing to 160,000 tons [2] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - Corporate inventory has shifted from increasing to decreasing, with spot prices remaining stable to slightly strong [2] - The real estate sector is experiencing a widening decline in completed area, contributing to weak terminal demand [2] - The market strategy suggests a cautious approach, with increased volatility at lower price levels and a focus on observing market trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures have shown a slight upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 1021.00 yuan and closing at 1007.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.31% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Century Futures indicates that glass prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with no substantial positive factors in the fundamentals. The current weak trend in glass spot prices is expected to continue, with daily melting volume dropping below 156,000 tons in the short term due to both production line ignition and shutdown [2] - Hualian Futures notes that the glass market is in a demand off-season, with companies reducing prices to stimulate sales. Inventory levels are slightly fluctuating at high levels, and the short-term supply-demand balance is unlikely to improve, leading to continued downward pressure on glass prices [3] - Zhonghui Futures highlights a significant decline in real estate completions from January to May, with a 5% decrease in downstream processing orders in mid-June compared to historical levels. The overall glass demand is expected to remain weak, with continued inventory accumulation upstream and a lack of significant drivers for price recovery [3] Group 2: Production and Inventory - New Century Futures reports that the total inventory of float glass among sample enterprises remains high compared to the same period in the past two years, indicating significant inventory pressure [2] - Hualian Futures mentions that one production line has been shut down, leading to a slight decrease in operating rates, while inventory levels have increased slightly in most regions, except for slight reductions in Central and Eastern China [3] - Zhonghui Futures states that the current production and daily melting volume are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with costs decreasing and market prices below production costs, indicating a low valuation despite weak fundamentals [3]

Group 1 - The main contract for glass futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 996.00 yuan, with a current price of 988.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.92% [1] - New Century Futures indicates that the glass market lacks upward momentum due to weak fundamentals, emphasizing the need to monitor the recovery of downstream demand [2] - New Lake Futures views the glass market as a short-selling opportunity, noting that the current inventory levels remain high and demand is weak, particularly as the market transitions from peak to off-peak season [3] Group 2 - The float glass industry operates at a capacity utilization rate of 78.62%, with a daily production of 15.75 million tons, marking a five-week high [2] - National float glass inventory decreased by 0.46% to 67.769 million heavy boxes, marking the first decline from a two-month high [2] - The real estate sector is still in an adjustment phase, with housing completion area down by 28.2%, leading to a challenging environment for glass demand recovery [2]