Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass fundamentals are weak, with supply at a low level, dismal orders from downstream deep - processing plants, and rising glass factory inventory. The glass is expected to oscillate weakly at a low level in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1104 yuan/ton to 1076 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.54%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board decreased from 976 yuan/ton to 972 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The main basis increased from - 128 yuan/ton to - 104 yuan/ton, a change of - 18.75% [6]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but cold - repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 210, with an operating rate of 70.81%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,500 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [19][21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [25]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 79.637 million weight boxes, an increase of 4.77% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [40]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [41]. 3.8 Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: Glass production profit is at a low level, and production volume is decreasing [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The terminal demand in the real estate industry is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market is currently in a weak state. With a slight recovery in production profit, cold - repair is less than expected, resulting in low supply. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level. The short - term outlook is for a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1064 yuan/ton to 1058 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.56%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remained unchanged at 944 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 120 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton, a change of - 5.00% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Glass production profit has slightly recovered, but the production line start - up rate and daily melting capacity are at historically low levels. The number of national float glass production line starts is 211, with a start - up rate of 71.86%, and the daily melting capacity is 14.98 tons [18][20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 469.44 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level. The funds recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [24][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 76.008 million weight boxes, an increase of 37.32% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [39]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and net import ratios. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 5510 tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is 5310 tons, with a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [40].

Market Overview - The main glass futures contract has experienced three consecutive days of decline, with trading volume gradually shrinking. As of February 6, 2026, the glass 2605 contract closed at 1057 RMB/ton, down 15 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.40% from the previous trading day [1] Supply Side - According to Mysteel's latest statistics, as of February 6, 2026, the float glass operating rate was 71.86%, unchanged from the previous week, but down 3.84 percentage points year-on-year. The float glass production was 1,055,765 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons week-on-week (0.11% drop) and a year-on-year decrease of 34,450 tons (3.16% drop). This indicates that despite the upcoming Spring Festival, production enterprises are maintaining a strong willingness to operate at high capacity, resulting in limited supply contraction [4] Demand Side - As of January 30, 2026, the order days for deep processing enterprises were 6.35 days, a decrease of 2.95 days month-on-month but an increase of 1.35 days year-on-year. This reflects a seasonal slowdown in new order activities as downstream processing enterprises begin to halt operations for the Spring Festival. Although year-on-year order days have increased, the month-on-month decline dominates market sentiment. The recent "guarantee delivery" policies in the real estate sector are supportive, but the transmission of funds to actual glass purchases will take time. Additionally, the growth rate of automobile production and sales has also shown signs of slowing [5] Inventory Situation - As of February 6, 2026, the inventory of float glass enterprises was 53.064 million weight boxes, an increase of 500,000 weight boxes (0.95% rise) week-on-week, but a year-on-year decrease of 7.08 million weight boxes (11.77% drop). In the Shihe region, trader inventory was 6.72 million weight boxes, an increase of 320,000 weight boxes (5% rise) week-on-week and an increase of 2.22 million weight boxes (49.33% rise) year-on-year. The significant year-on-year decline in factory inventory indicates lower overall inventory pressure compared to last year, providing some price support. However, the increase in trader inventory suggests a bottleneck in the flow of goods from production to end-users, which may lead to selling pressure if downstream recovery and restocking do not meet expectations [8] Market Outlook - The current glass market is characterized by "weak supply and demand, and inventory transfer." The rigid supply, seasonal demand vacuum, and high social inventory collectively suggest that prices are unlikely to perform strongly before the holiday, likely remaining in a low-level fluctuation. Post-holiday market performance will hinge on two key factors: the pace of downstream resumption and new order situations, which will determine the speed of real demand activation, and the path of social inventory digestion, which will directly impact market sentiment and price volatility. Investors should closely monitor the progress of downstream resumption and changes in factory inventory in the first week after the Spring Festival [11]

Group 1 - The glass futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1085.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1120.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a price increase of 3.82% [1] - Market sentiment is primarily loose, with short-term price increases influenced by trading emotions and hedging activities, but there is a caution to return to fundamental risks [2] - The overall trading activity is declining as downstream processing plants approach the end of their operations before the Spring Festival, leading to a stable supply and limited demand growth [2] Group 2 - The glass market is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the short term, with the main contract price range projected between 1025-1125 CNY/ton [2] - Recent news of cold repairs from various enterprises has led to a price rebound, but the overall market lacks strong driving factors, resulting in a prevalent wait-and-see sentiment [2] - Manufacturers are primarily adopting strategies of steady pricing and inventory reduction, with limited willingness to adjust prices significantly [2]

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 1035.00 yuan and closing at 1039.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.35% [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The glass market sentiment has shifted from strong to weak, leading to price corrections and a wide range of fluctuations expected in the short term [2] - The overall supply-demand balance in the glass market remains loose, with no significant marginal drivers anticipated, and the main contract is expected to trade within a range of 1015-1125 yuan/ton [2] - The macroeconomic sentiment is weakening, contributing to the weak performance of glass prices, with a slight increase in production capacity to 15.07 million tons [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily melting volume of glass remains low, and there are no clear plans for significant production recovery in the short term [2] - Demand from downstream processing plants is subdued as they enter holiday mode, with overall inventory levels still significantly higher than the same period last year [2] - Recent data indicates a slight decrease in national float glass inventory, but trade merchants are still facing considerable inventory pressure [3][4] Group 3: Regional and Seasonal Factors - Inventory reduction has been more pronounced in specific regions such as Shahe and Hubei, while major sales areas like South China and East China have also seen slight inventory declines [4] - The market is facing seasonal pressures as the upcoming Spring Festival may lead to increased inventory accumulation during the off-peak season [4] - The order days for deep processing increased by 7.9% month-on-month and 86.4% year-on-year, indicating better-than-expected demand in the short term [4]

1. Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating of the glass industry is "shock", indicating short - term volatility [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the interest rate cut news, market sentiment cooled, downstream hesitation increased, and there is an expectation of supply contraction before the Spring Festival. It is expected that glass prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with the possibility of weakening if the price breaks below the 20 - day moving average later. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold repair situations [4] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass futures main contract opened high and closed low, with a short - term weakening signal. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 355,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 20,430 lots. The closing price was 1086 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.55% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: Most glass enterprises maintained stable prices, with only a few enterprises in some regions raising prices. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 66 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of float glass was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The industry's average operating rate was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million weight boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. The overall glass enterprise inventory is showing a downward trend [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and home - improvement orders are mainly small - value scattered orders [2] Macro - news - On January 15, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to support economic structural transformation and optimization [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with unimpressive production profit recovery and supply contraction falling short of expectations. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level. The short - term outlook is for glass to oscillate weakly [2]. - The supply of glass has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories have risen. It is expected that glass will oscillate weakly at a low level [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - size boards was 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the main basis was - 84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.45% from the previous value [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - No specific content on cost - side data is summarized other than mentions of glass production profit sources (from Longzhong and Steel Union) [15][20]. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 219, with an operating rate of 73.90%, at a historically low level during the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 155,000 tons, with production capacity at a historically low level during the same period [23][25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [28]. - Regarding downstream factors, the real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level during the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventories [5]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 58.558 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.57% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [44]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Table - The float glass annual supply - demand balance table shows production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, production was 55.1 million tons, consumption was 53.1 million tons, production growth rate was 3.94%, and consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors include the "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe region and industry cold repairs, resulting in production losses [4]. - Negative factors include weak real - estate terminal demand and low order numbers for glass deep - processing enterprises during the same period, as well as the cautious attitude of traders and processors due to poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak. The production profit recovery is sluggish, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized at a low level, deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising, leading to an expected low - level weak - fluctuation in glass prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 984 yuan/ton to 964 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.03%. - The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards decreased from 972 yuan/ton to 968 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. - The main basis changed from - 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a change of - 133.33% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamentals - Cost Side No specific content about the cost - side analysis is provided other than the mention of glass production profit. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%, at a historically low level in the same period. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [25][27]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [30]. - There are mentions of housing sales, new construction, construction, completion areas, and downstream processing factory operations and orders, but no specific data is provided other than the consumption data. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 59.442 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [43]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Consumption (10,000 tons) | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 5354 | 5263 | 5229 | | | - 1.734 | | 2018 | 5162 | 5098 | 5091 | - 3.59% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 5027 | 5061 | - 2.13% | - 0.59% | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 5014 | 5064 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.289 | | 2021 | 5494 | 5507 | 5412 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.244 | | 2022 | 5463 | 5418 | 5327 | - 0.56% | - 1.57% | - 0.834 | | 2023 | 5301 | 5252 | 5372 | - 2.97% | 0.84% | - 0.934 | | 2024E | 5510 | 5461 | 5310 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [44] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: "Coal - to - Gas" in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the glass futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract down by 1.66% to 1006.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] - As of December 3, the national average price of float glass is 1166.71 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 21 yuan/ton from the low point in November, particularly driven by an 80 yuan/ton increase in the Central China region [2] - Last week, the average operating rate of glass production decreased by 0.34% week-on-week, with a week-on-week supply reduction of 0.63 thousand tons and a significant inventory drop of 941 thousand heavy boxes [2] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the decline in glass supply has been largely priced in, and there are currently no new driving factors in the market, leading to a continued drop in futures sentiment [4] - New Lake Futures suggests that while the current fundamentals are weak, the market has overreacted to pessimistic sentiments, indicating potential for a rebound due to positive macro signals from December's domestic policy meetings and expectations of production cuts [4] - The recommendation is to consider a phase of rebound trading in December, focusing on low buying positions while monitoring the actual implementation of production cuts and the pressure from the January contract near the break-even point [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows a downward trend, with glass futures main contract opening at 1034.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of approximately 1.83% [1] - The operating rate of China's LOW-E glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.1% to 75.1% from November 21 to November 27, indicating a low level compared to previous years [2] - The average order days for deep processing sample enterprises increased by 2.4% to 10.1 days, but this represents a year-on-year decline of 17.9% [2] Group 2 - Future market expectations indicate that the glass demand will enter a seasonal decline, with significant supply and inventory pressures leading to historically low prices [2] - The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 941,000 heavy boxes, reaching the lowest level since October [3] - The ongoing decline in real estate completions is negatively impacting demand, and the ability to stabilize prices will depend on the progress of production line repairs and macroeconomic conditions [3]