交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 影响因素总结 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2026-2-27 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润小幅修复，冷修不及预期，供给低位；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱， 库存同期历史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1058元/吨，基差为-114元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存7600.80万重量箱，较前一周增加37.32%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 利多： 1、玻璃生产利润低位，产量下行。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数 ...

行情回顾 玻璃主力合约连续三天下跌，但成交量逐步萎缩。截至2026年2月6日夜盘收盘，玻璃2605收盘报价1057 元/吨，较前一交易日结算价下跌15元/吨，跌幅1.40%。那么市场为何再度陷入低迷？后续行情如何演 绎？ 来源：华创期货 【摘要】玻璃主力合约连续三天下跌，但成交量逐步萎缩。 【温馨提醒】市场风云变幻，期市波动起伏。光靠看盘可不够！加入我们的专属社群，专业分析师实时 直播、金牌客服推送核心研报等。点击专属客服通道，立即加入交流群！立即进群>> 供应端：生产保持刚性，同比收缩态势延续 据Mysteel最新统计数据显示，截至2026年2月6日当周，浮法玻璃开工率为71.86%，环比持平，同比下 降3.84个百分点；同期浮法玻璃产量为1055765吨，环比下降1200吨，降幅0.11%，同比减少34450吨， 降幅3.16%。数据表明，尽管临近春节，但生产企业维持高负荷运行的意愿较强，供应收缩幅度极为有 限。这背后一方面是企业出于维持现金流和市场份额的考虑；另一方面，当前原料及燃料成本相对稳 定，也为生产线保持开工提供了客观条件。然而，同比数据的下滑也提示我们，行业产能经过前期调整 已进入一个相对平稳 ...

Group 1 - The glass futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 1085.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1120.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a price increase of 3.82% [1] - Market sentiment is primarily loose, with short-term price increases influenced by trading emotions and hedging activities, but there is a caution to return to fundamental risks [2] - The overall trading activity is declining as downstream processing plants approach the end of their operations before the Spring Festival, leading to a stable supply and limited demand growth [2] Group 2 - The glass market is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the short term, with the main contract price range projected between 1025-1125 CNY/ton [2] - Recent news of cold repairs from various enterprises has led to a price rebound, but the overall market lacks strong driving factors, resulting in a prevalent wait-and-see sentiment [2] - Manufacturers are primarily adopting strategies of steady pricing and inventory reduction, with limited willingness to adjust prices significantly [2]

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 1035.00 yuan and closing at 1039.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.35% [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The glass market sentiment has shifted from strong to weak, leading to price corrections and a wide range of fluctuations expected in the short term [2] - The overall supply-demand balance in the glass market remains loose, with no significant marginal drivers anticipated, and the main contract is expected to trade within a range of 1015-1125 yuan/ton [2] - The macroeconomic sentiment is weakening, contributing to the weak performance of glass prices, with a slight increase in production capacity to 15.07 million tons [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily melting volume of glass remains low, and there are no clear plans for significant production recovery in the short term [2] - Demand from downstream processing plants is subdued as they enter holiday mode, with overall inventory levels still significantly higher than the same period last year [2] - Recent data indicates a slight decrease in national float glass inventory, but trade merchants are still facing considerable inventory pressure [3][4] Group 3: Regional and Seasonal Factors - Inventory reduction has been more pronounced in specific regions such as Shahe and Hubei, while major sales areas like South China and East China have also seen slight inventory declines [4] - The market is facing seasonal pressures as the upcoming Spring Festival may lead to increased inventory accumulation during the off-peak season [4] - The order days for deep processing increased by 7.9% month-on-month and 86.4% year-on-year, indicating better-than-expected demand in the short term [4]

1. Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating of the glass industry is "shock", indicating short - term volatility [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the interest rate cut news, market sentiment cooled, downstream hesitation increased, and there is an expectation of supply contraction before the Spring Festival. It is expected that glass prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with the possibility of weakening if the price breaks below the 20 - day moving average later. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold repair situations [4] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass futures main contract opened high and closed low, with a short - term weakening signal. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 355,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 20,430 lots. The closing price was 1086 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.55% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: Most glass enterprises maintained stable prices, with only a few enterprises in some regions raising prices. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 66 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of float glass was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The industry's average operating rate was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million weight boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. The overall glass enterprise inventory is showing a downward trend [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and home - improvement orders are mainly small - value scattered orders [2] Macro - news - On January 15, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to support economic structural transformation and optimization [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with unimpressive production profit recovery and supply contraction falling short of expectations. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level. The short - term outlook is for glass to oscillate weakly [2]. - The supply of glass has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories have risen. It is expected that glass will oscillate weakly at a low level [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - size boards was 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the main basis was - 84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.45% from the previous value [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - No specific content on cost - side data is summarized other than mentions of glass production profit sources (from Longzhong and Steel Union) [15][20]. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 219, with an operating rate of 73.90%, at a historically low level during the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 155,000 tons, with production capacity at a historically low level during the same period [23][25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [28]. - Regarding downstream factors, the real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level during the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventories [5]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 58.558 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.57% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [44]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Table - The float glass annual supply - demand balance table shows production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, production was 55.1 million tons, consumption was 53.1 million tons, production growth rate was 3.94%, and consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors include the "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe region and industry cold repairs, resulting in production losses [4]. - Negative factors include weak real - estate terminal demand and low order numbers for glass deep - processing enterprises during the same period, as well as the cautious attitude of traders and processors due to poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak. The production profit recovery is sluggish, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized at a low level, deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising, leading to an expected low - level weak - fluctuation in glass prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 984 yuan/ton to 964 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.03%. - The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards decreased from 972 yuan/ton to 968 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. - The main basis changed from - 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a change of - 133.33% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamentals - Cost Side No specific content about the cost - side analysis is provided other than the mention of glass production profit. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%, at a historically low level in the same period. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [25][27]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [30]. - There are mentions of housing sales, new construction, construction, completion areas, and downstream processing factory operations and orders, but no specific data is provided other than the consumption data. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 59.442 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [43]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Consumption (10,000 tons) | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 5354 | 5263 | 5229 | | | - 1.734 | | 2018 | 5162 | 5098 | 5091 | - 3.59% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 5027 | 5061 | - 2.13% | - 0.59% | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 5014 | 5064 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.289 | | 2021 | 5494 | 5507 | 5412 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.244 | | 2022 | 5463 | 5418 | 5327 | - 0.56% | - 1.57% | - 0.834 | | 2023 | 5301 | 5252 | 5372 | - 2.97% | 0.84% | - 0.934 | | 2024E | 5510 | 5461 | 5310 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [44] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: "Coal - to - Gas" in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the glass futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract down by 1.66% to 1006.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] - As of December 3, the national average price of float glass is 1166.71 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 21 yuan/ton from the low point in November, particularly driven by an 80 yuan/ton increase in the Central China region [2] - Last week, the average operating rate of glass production decreased by 0.34% week-on-week, with a week-on-week supply reduction of 0.63 thousand tons and a significant inventory drop of 941 thousand heavy boxes [2] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the decline in glass supply has been largely priced in, and there are currently no new driving factors in the market, leading to a continued drop in futures sentiment [4] - New Lake Futures suggests that while the current fundamentals are weak, the market has overreacted to pessimistic sentiments, indicating potential for a rebound due to positive macro signals from December's domestic policy meetings and expectations of production cuts [4] - The recommendation is to consider a phase of rebound trading in December, focusing on low buying positions while monitoring the actual implementation of production cuts and the pressure from the January contract near the break-even point [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows a downward trend, with glass futures main contract opening at 1034.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of approximately 1.83% [1] - The operating rate of China's LOW-E glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.1% to 75.1% from November 21 to November 27, indicating a low level compared to previous years [2] - The average order days for deep processing sample enterprises increased by 2.4% to 10.1 days, but this represents a year-on-year decline of 17.9% [2] Group 2 - Future market expectations indicate that the glass demand will enter a seasonal decline, with significant supply and inventory pressures leading to historically low prices [2] - The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 941,000 heavy boxes, reaching the lowest level since October [3] - The ongoing decline in real estate completions is negatively impacting demand, and the ability to stabilize prices will depend on the progress of production line repairs and macroeconomic conditions [3]

Core Viewpoints - Glass futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 1051.00 yuan, closing at 1053.00 yuan, down 1.86% [1] - Various institutions predict a bearish outlook for the glass market in the near term, with expectations of weak performance and limited recovery in supply-demand dynamics [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - Wenkang Futures expects the glass market to maintain a weak operating trend in the short term due to a lack of strong support from supply-demand fundamentals [1] - Hualian Futures suggests that glass prices will operate within the range of 1050-1160 yuan, influenced by recent production adjustments and cautious downstream purchasing attitudes [1] - Guoxin Futures indicates that the glass market may experience bearish fluctuations, with a decrease in daily melting volume and production profits across different fuel types [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The glass market is facing a decline in production and profits, with natural gas-fueled float glass showing a weekly average profit of -157.70 yuan/ton, down 37.14 yuan/ton [2] - Total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises reached 63.136 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.654 million heavy boxes or 4.03% from the previous period, but an increase of 29.05% year-on-year [2] - Despite a reduction in supply, demand remains weak, leading to expectations of continued price pressure in the market [2]