Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation is weak, but the cost is relatively strong. The game for the 01 contract may continue until delivery. Without unexpected production cuts, a bearish view is maintained for the glass and soda ash 01 contracts [6]. - Structural contradictions still exist. The reduction in glass supply is insufficient to change the oversupply situation, and the high inventory in the middle - stream puts great pressure on the 01 contract. The expectation of glass cold - repair is rising again, which is negative for the rigid demand of soda ash, but the cost side is relatively firm [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.31% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.4%. For soda ash, the monthly price range forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.69% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 9.8% [1]. Market Data - **Glass Futures**: On November 7, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1225, 1315, and 1091 respectively, with daily changes of - 2, - 4, and - 10, and daily change rates of - 0.16%, - 0.3%, and - 0.91% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Glass Spot**: Some glass spot prices in different regions showed little change on November 7, 2025. For example, the safety brand in the Shahe area remained at 1130, while the Great Wall brand increased by 5 to 1126 [8]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On November 7, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1294, 1363, and 1210 respectively, with daily changes of 1, - 1, and 3, and daily change rates of 0.08%, - 0.07%, and 0.25% compared to the previous day [8]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: On November 7, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in some regions such as North China and South China remained unchanged, while the light - alkali market price in some regions had slight changes [9][10]. Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, shorting glass futures (FG2601) and selling call options (FG601C1200) are recommended. When the procurement inventory is low and worried about price increases, buying glass futures (FG2601) and selling put options (FG601P1000) are recommended [1]. - For soda ash inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price drops, shorting soda ash futures (SA2601) and selling call options (SA601C1400) are recommended. When the procurement inventory is low and worried about price increases, buying soda ash futures (SA2601) and selling put options (SA601P1200) are recommended [1]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The cost of glass and soda ash (fuel & raw materials) still has an upward expectation, which affects the far - month pricing. The industrial policy expectation cannot be completely excluded and may be repeatedly traded [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The inventories of glass and soda ash in the upper and middle reaches are high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable. The supply pressure remains, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change. After the glass spot price increases, the production and sales have weakened, and the sustainability needs to be observed [5][6].