玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/08/13 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1400 | 51.76% | 97.8% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1500 | 39.03% | 75.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 【利多解读】 煤炭价格上涨，抬升成本；政策预期尚存，供应端故事或反复交易 【利空解读】 上中游库存高企，存在负反馈；现实需求一般 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/08/01 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1400 | 51.76% | 97.8% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1500 | 39.03% | 75.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 存 | 产成品库存偏 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 1250 | | | | 高，担心 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the policy expectation persists, with the possibility of re - heating. From a practical perspective, there is significant short - term warehouse receipt pressure, and the delivery logic is starting to play out. The market is characterized by a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with the policy expectation yet to be falsified. There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there is huge short - term delivery pressure. The positive factors include the persistence of policy expectations and the logic of rising coal costs, while the negative factor is that the fundamental reality has not improved significantly, and the rigid demand is weakening [2] Group 3: Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is in the range of 1200 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 97.8%. The monthly price forecast for纯碱 is in the range of 1200 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 75.6% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: For high glass product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 50% of FG2509 futures at 1400 and sell 50% of FG509C1400 call options at 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For low glass procurement inventory, buy 50% of FG2509 futures at 1100 and sell 50% of FG509P1100 put options at 50 - 60 to lock in procurement costs [1] 纯碱 - **Inventory Management**: For high纯碱 product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 50% of SA2509 futures at 1600 and sell 50% of SA509C1500 call options at 40 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For low纯碱 procurement inventory, buy 50% of SA2509 futures at 1200 - 1250 and sell 50% of SA509P1260 put options at 40 - 60 to lock in procurement costs [1] Group 5: Glass Market Data Glass Futures - On July 29, 2025, the glass 05 contract price was 1368, up 34 (2.55%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1188, down 35 (-2.86%); the 01 contract was 1313, up 13 (1%) [4] Glass Spot - The average price of glass in Shahe on July 29, 2025, was 1278.2, down 7 from the previous day. Prices in different regions also showed fluctuations, such as a 10 - point decrease in North China and a 10 - point increase in South China [5] Group 6: Soda Ash Market Data Soda Ash Futures - On July 29, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract price was 1447, up 30 (2.12%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1318, up 2 (0.15%); the 01 contract was 1407, up 20 (1.44%) [6] Soda Ash Spot - The market prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on July 29, 2025, with some exceptions like a 50 - point increase in heavy and light soda ash prices in the Northeast region [7]