Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The core contradiction lies in the conflict between macro - expectations and industrial logic. There are disagreements in far - month pricing without a clear direction, and the destocking ability of the mid - stream during the peak season needs to be observed [2] - For glass, upstream and mid - stream inventories are high, and the phased restocking ability is weak. The supply - side daily melting is around 160,000 tons with a slight increase expectation. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 6 - 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] - For纯碱, the medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high. Normal maintenance continues, and in the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the inventory has been reduced to a relatively low level. The overall rigid demand for纯碱 is stable, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [3] Group 3: Price Forecast - The monthly price range of glass is predicted to be 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.34% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.2%. The monthly price range of纯碱 is predicted to be 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.83% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.7% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell FG2601 futures and FG601C1400 call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1400 for futures and 40 - 50 for options [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy FG2601 futures and sell FG601P1100 put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1100 - 1150 for futures and 50 - 60 for options [1] 纯碱 - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell SA2601 futures and SA601C1500 call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1550 - 1600 for futures and 50 - 60 for options [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy SA2601 futures and sell SA601P1200 put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1200 - 1250 for futures and 40 - 50 for options [1] Group 5: Market Price and Spread Glass - On September 10, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1279, down 10 (- 0.78%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 995, down 35 (- 3.4%); the 01 contract was 1181, down 11 (- 0.92%) [4] - The average price of glass in the Shahe area on September 10, 2025, was 1162.4, down 3.6 from the previous day [5] 纯碱 - On September 10, 2025, the price of the 纯碱 05 contract was 1353, down 5 (- 0.37%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1162, up 3 (0.26%); the 01 contract was 1281, up 3 (0.23%) [6] - The market price of heavy 纯碱 in the Shahe area on September 10, 2025, was 1186, up 3 from the previous day [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Glass - The current inventory of the mid - stream is at a high level. After the rapid decline of the futures price, the negative feedback continues, and the production and sales are weak. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and the low - price spot in Hubei is around 1020 yuan/ton after continuous price cuts. Further attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term rapid changes in sentiment [3]. 纯碱 - Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate. Supply - side stories, regardless of the reasons, will be repeatedly traded, increasing volatility. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches has reached a new historical high, and the cost side has increased slightly with the strong coal price. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand for纯碱 remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a historical percentile of 97.8% over 3 years. The monthly price range forecast for纯碱 is 1100 - 1500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a historical percentile of 75.6% over 3 years [1]. Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory and worried about price decline, they can short glass futures (FG2601) with a 50% ratio at 1450 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (FG601C1420) with a 50% ratio at 50 - 60 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises. - **Purchase Management**: For those with low purchase inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy glass futures (FG2601) with a 50% ratio at 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton to prevent price increases. They can also sell put options (FG601P1100) with a 50% ratio at 40 - 50 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [1]. 纯碱 - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory and worried about price decline, they can short soda ash futures (SA2601) with a 50% ratio at 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SA601C1600) with a 50% ratio at 60 - 70 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises. - **Purchase Management**: For those with low purchase inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy soda ash futures (SA2601) with a 50% ratio at 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton to prevent price increases. They can also sell put options (SA601P1200) with a 50% ratio at 50 - 60 yuan to reduce costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [1]. Core Contradictions - There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic. The 09 contract is facing delivery, and near - month trading is returning to reality [2]. 利多解读 - The increase in coal prices raises costs. There are still policy expectations, and supply - side stories may be repeatedly traded [2]. 利空解读 - The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is high, leading to a negative feedback. The actual demand is average [2]. Price and Spread Data Glass - On August 13, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1308, 1061, and 1214 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 22, 12, and 26 yuan/ton and daily decline rates of 1.65%, 1.12%, and 2.1% respectively. The spot prices of some glass products in different regions also had slight fluctuations [6][7]. 纯碱 - On August 13, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1437, 1276, and 1383 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 25, 16, and 26 yuan/ton and daily decline rates of 1.71%, 1.24%, and 1.85% respectively. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only a few regions showing price changes [7][8][9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, with increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - end warehouse receipt pressure is relatively large, and the market is starting to follow the delivery logic. There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is approaching delivery, causing trading to return to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price is predicted to be in the range of 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price is forecasted to be between 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For high glass inventory, sell FG2509 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs. For low glass inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1000 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1]. - **Soda Ash Inventory Management**: For high soda ash inventory, sell SA2509 futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio. For low soda ash inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Data - **Glass Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the glass 05 contract was at 1295 (down 0.23% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1102 (down 1.34%), and the 01 contract was at 1224 (unchanged). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 193 (up 12), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 122 (down 15), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 71 (up 3) [6]. - **Glass Spot**: The average price of glass in the Shahe area on August 1, 2025, was 1248, down 19.4 from the previous day. Prices in most regions decreased slightly [7]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was at 1379 (up 0.07% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1256 (up 0.72%), and the 01 contract was at 1333 (up 0.6%). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 123 (down 8), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 77 (up 1), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 46 (up 7) [8]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: The heavy - alkali and light - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged on August 1, 2025. The heavy - alkali price in Shahe was 1246, down 1 from the previous day [9].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the policy expectation persists, with the possibility of re - heating. From a practical perspective, there is significant short - term warehouse receipt pressure, and the delivery logic is starting to play out. The market is characterized by a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with the policy expectation yet to be falsified. There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there is huge short - term delivery pressure. The positive factors include the persistence of policy expectations and the logic of rising coal costs, while the negative factor is that the fundamental reality has not improved significantly, and the rigid demand is weakening [2] Group 3: Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is in the range of 1200 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 97.8%. The monthly price forecast for纯碱 is in the range of 1200 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 75.6% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: For high glass product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 50% of FG2509 futures at 1400 and sell 50% of FG509C1400 call options at 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For low glass procurement inventory, buy 50% of FG2509 futures at 1100 and sell 50% of FG509P1100 put options at 50 - 60 to lock in procurement costs [1] 纯碱 - **Inventory Management**: For high纯碱 product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 50% of SA2509 futures at 1600 and sell 50% of SA509C1500 call options at 40 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For low纯碱 procurement inventory, buy 50% of SA2509 futures at 1200 - 1250 and sell 50% of SA509P1260 put options at 40 - 60 to lock in procurement costs [1] Group 5: Glass Market Data Glass Futures - On July 29, 2025, the glass 05 contract price was 1368, up 34 (2.55%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1188, down 35 (-2.86%); the 01 contract was 1313, up 13 (1%) [4] Glass Spot - The average price of glass in Shahe on July 29, 2025, was 1278.2, down 7 from the previous day. Prices in different regions also showed fluctuations, such as a 10 - point decrease in North China and a 10 - point increase in South China [5] Group 6: Soda Ash Market Data Soda Ash Futures - On July 29, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract price was 1447, up 30 (2.12%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1318, up 2 (0.15%); the 01 contract was 1407, up 20 (1.44%) [6] Soda Ash Spot - The market prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on July 29, 2025, with some exceptions like a 50 - point increase in heavy and light soda ash prices in the Northeast region [7]