2026.02. 11 在往年春节前后往往迎来季节性扩张的银行理财市场，2026年开年却显得克制。 多家机构数据显示，1月银行理财规模不增反降，未现传统意义上的"开门红"。规模波动背后，是资 金在存款、理财、保险与权益资产之间的再平衡，也是理财公司在费率、产品与投资策略层面的主动 调整。业内人士认为，随着到期存款陆续释放，理财市场或进入新一轮结构调整期，全年规模有望增 长3万亿元左右。 1月理财规模缩减千亿 多家市场机构测算的数据显示，2026年首月，银行理财市场未现"开门红"。华西证券发布的数据显 示，今年1月份最后一周（1月26日至1月30日），银行理财规模再度承压至33.18万亿元，环比下 降1788亿元。从全月看，在去年12月理财规模回表约5100亿元的背景下，今年1月并未如市场预期 般回升，而是延续缩量态势，月度环比下降1142亿元。 回溯近四年数据，除2023年受"赎回潮"冲击出现大幅下滑外，2022年至2025年1月理财规模大多 呈季节性增长。今年1月的回落因此显得颇为反常。 从机构层面看，不同理财公司规模出现分化。Wind数据显示，截至2026年1月末，管理规模超万亿 元的14家银行理财公司（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management market is experiencing a contraction in January 2026, with expectations for a rebound of approximately 1 trillion yuan in February, driven by the release of maturing deposits and a structural adjustment in the market [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, the banking wealth management scale decreased by 178.8 billion yuan, reaching 33.18 trillion yuan, marking a month-on-month decline of 1.142 trillion yuan [2]. - The decline in January is notable as it contrasts with the seasonal growth typically observed in previous years, where the market usually sees a "New Year opening" boost [2][4]. - The top 14 wealth management companies, managing over 1 trillion yuan, saw a combined scale decrease of approximately 122.2 billion yuan, continuing a downward trend for the second consecutive month [2]. Group 2: Product Issuance and Performance - The issuance of new wealth management products in January 2026 fell to 2,533, a decrease of 305 from the previous month, with average performance benchmarks slightly adjusted downwards [3]. - Despite the scale contraction, the net value of pure debt wealth management products maintained positive growth, indicating stability in product performance [3]. - The average annualized yield for open-ended fixed-income wealth management products rose to 3.00%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points month-on-month [3]. Group 3: Reasons for Contraction - The decline in wealth management scale is attributed to several factors, including the inertia of year-end balance sheet effects and increased cash demand from residents as the Spring Festival approaches [4]. - Banks are focusing on loan and deposit marketing strategies, which has temporarily weakened wealth management sales [4]. - Market sentiment has shifted towards equities, diverting funds away from wealth management products [4][5]. Group 4: Company Responses - Wealth management companies are responding to scale pressures by reducing fees and innovating product offerings to enhance competitiveness [6]. - Several institutions have lowered management and service fees, with some products even reaching "zero fee" status to attract investors [6]. - Companies are also exploring diverse investment strategies, including participation in A-share IPOs and launching new product lines to adapt to market conditions [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts express cautious optimism for February, predicting a potential recovery of around 1 trillion yuan in wealth management scale, with an overall annual growth expectation of approximately 3 trillion yuan [7]. - The historical trend indicates that wealth management scales typically experience fluctuations around the Spring Festival, with a rebound expected post-holiday as liquidity returns to the market [7].