Core Viewpoint - In a rapidly changing economic environment, individuals with 200,000 yuan in cash face a crucial financial decision regarding whether to deposit it in a bank or explore alternative investment options. Financial professionals emphasize the importance of considering safety, liquidity, and yield when making this decision, tailored to individual financial situations and risk tolerance [1]. Investment Strategies - Traditional fixed deposits may not be the only option; a diversified investment strategy is recommended. A pyramid asset allocation model is suggested, distributing funds across different risk levels to balance returns and risks [1]. Conservative Base (40-60% of funds) - Large Time Deposits: Starting from 200,000 yuan, rates typically exceed regular fixed deposits by 30-50 basis points. For instance, a three-year large time deposit from a joint-stock bank can yield up to 3.25% [3]. - Savings Bonds: Backed by national credit, these are highly secure. The three-year savings bond for 2025 has a coupon rate of 3.12%, while the five-year bond offers 3.32%, making them ideal for conservative investors [3]. Balanced Middle (30-40% of funds) - Cash Management Products: These offer high liquidity, often allowing T+0 redemption, with annual yields ranging from 2.3% to 2.8%. For example, the "Zhaozhao Bao" from China Merchants Bank is flexible and accessible [4]. - Pure Bond Funds: Primarily investing in the bond market, these have relatively low risk, with a three-year annualized return of approximately 4.5% to 5.2% and volatility below 1.5% [4]. Aggressive Top (10-20% of funds) - Index Fund Regular Investment: Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, the annualized return over the past decade has reached 6.8%, indicating substantial long-term investment returns [6]. - Gold ETFs: With inflation-resistant properties, these saw a 9.2% increase in the first half of 2025, serving as an effective tool against currency depreciation [8]. Innovative Deposit Products - In response to market competition, banks are launching innovative deposit products to balance yield and liquidity [9]. - Tiered Interest Products: For example, the "Tianjin Jinbao" from Bohai Bank offers a rate of 3.0% to 3.2% for 1-3 years, allowing for tiered interest even with early withdrawals [9]. - Special Savings: The "Happiness Savings" from Citic Bank supports monthly interest payments, with a five-year rate of up to 3.85%, providing stable cash flow [9]. - Structured Deposits: These capital-protected products typically linked to foreign exchange or indices have expected returns between 1.5% and 2.0% [11]. Personalized Investment Strategies - Different asset allocation strategies should be adopted based on individual risk tolerance and financial goals [11]. - Conservative Investors (55+ years): Recommended to allocate 70% to large time deposits, 20% to bonds, and 10% to money market funds for capital safety [13]. - Steady Investors: Suggested allocation includes 50% in smart deposits, 30% in pure bond funds, 15% in gold ETFs, and 5% in equity funds for stable growth [13]. - Aggressive Investors (under 35 years): Recommended to invest 40% in index fund regular investments, 30% in mixed products from bank wealth management subsidiaries, 20% in structured deposits, and 10% in QDII funds for higher returns [13]. Key Operational Reminders - Interest Rate Cycle Assessment: When the central bank is in a rate-cutting phase, longer-term deposit products are advisable; conversely, short-term products should be chosen during rate hikes for flexibility [14]. - Fund Planning Techniques: The "12 Time Deposit Method" involves depositing 16,000 yuan monthly in fixed deposits to maintain liquidity while enjoying higher rates [14]. - Tax Optimization: Interest income from bonds is exempt from personal income tax, while large time deposit interest must be reported as part of comprehensive income, necessitating tax planning [14]. - Bank Selection: City commercial banks typically offer deposit rates 30-50 basis points higher than state-owned banks, warranting investor attention [15]. Market Trends - The proportion of clients opting for pure fixed deposits has decreased to 38% in 2025, down 23 percentage points from 2020, indicating a shift towards a "core-satellite" strategy, where stable products form the core, supplemented by a small portion of high-risk, high-reward products for diversified asset growth [15].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share index has reached a nearly 10-year high, prompting a shift in investment strategies among wealth management products, with a notable outflow of funds from cash management and pure fixed-income products towards equity-related investments [1][2][5]. Fund Flow Dynamics - Different types of wealth management products are experiencing varying levels of outflow pressure, with cash management and pure fixed-income products facing significant challenges due to lower yields compared to the rising stock market [2][5]. - As of July, the annualized yields for cash management and pure fixed-income products were only 1.46% and 2.38%, respectively, underperforming the 3.5% increase in the CSI 300 index [2]. - In contrast, mixed and equity-based wealth management products achieved average annualized returns of 6.52% and 37.14% over the past month, attracting more investment [2][5]. Redemption Concerns - Wealth management companies are cautious about potential redemption pressures, having redeemed funds from several bond funds to manage risks [4][5]. - The redemption pressure is particularly high for cash management products with annualized returns below 1.5%, as investors seek better returns in the equity market [7][8]. - The overall redemption pressure is somewhat mitigated by the return of bank deposit funds to the wealth management market after meeting semi-annual deposit assessment tasks [7][8]. Market Volatility and Strategy Shift - The current market volatility necessitates a shift from traditional single-asset strategies to diversified asset allocation, as reliance on a single investment strategy is becoming increasingly challenging [10][11]. - Wealth management firms are recognizing the need for enhanced multi-asset allocation capabilities to navigate market uncertainties and seek new return opportunities [10][11][12]. Challenges in Asset Diversification - Achieving effective asset diversification requires wealth management companies to develop strong research capabilities across various asset classes, including bonds, commodities, currencies, and equities [12][13]. - Companies must transition from traditional experience-based approaches to quantitative analysis for investment decision-making, which poses a challenge due to a lack of qualified talent in quantitative investment [12][13]. - The shift in investment logic from fixed-income to multi-asset strategies necessitates a transformation in product positioning and the overall product system within wealth management firms [13].

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 2025 年以来 | | | 固收产品收益 | 含权债基>高等级同业存单指基>现金 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金> | | | 回顾 | 管理>短债基金>中长期借審 现金管理 > 中长期债基 近一个月,供给端"反内卷"和需求 | | | | 1 月偏强震荡,2 月-3 月中旬债市大幅回 端基建、民生政策落地,基本面修复 调,4月初债市快速走强后回归震荡,5月下 | | | 债市回顾 | 预期强化,市场风险偏好抬升,资金 | 旬小幅回调，6月回归震荡,7月以来有所回 | | | 面维持相对宽松。长债弱于短债，信 | | | | 用债弱于利率债。 | 调。 | | | | 1.财政部、税务总局明确自８月８日起,对新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券 | | 行业事件跟踪 | 利息收入恢复征收增值税。 | | | | | 2.近期多家头部保险公司宣布下调产品预定利率，将于 8 月 31 日前完成产品切换。 | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个 ...

Core Viewpoints - The wealth management market has significant potential but is currently constrained by a "low interest rate, low growth, and low risk appetite" environment, leading to structural challenges for institutions [3][7] - Industry needs to focus on long-term investment philosophy, technological empowerment, asset allocation optimization, and enhancing customer experience [3][7] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - On August 7, China Merchants Bank held the "Wealth New Journey Bay Area Co-creation - 2025 Wealth Cooperation Partner Forum," which has become an important window to observe changes in the wealth management market [3][7] - The bank's president proposed several development initiatives, including focusing on long-term value creation, enhancing global asset allocation capabilities, deepening AI and finance integration, and adhering to market standardization [7] Peer Innovation Dynamics - Huibin Wealth Management launched the "Star Huibin+" multi-asset multi-strategy product system, aiming to integrate various investment strategies to achieve a complete closed loop of investment strategy, strategy index, and product labeling [3][8] - Xingyin Wealth Management successfully completed Fujian Province's first stock option registration business, marking a breakthrough in the province's stock option registration from zero to one [3][9] Yield Performance - For the week of August 4-10, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.34%, down 2 basis points, while money market funds remained stable at 1.21% [4][10] - Most fixed income and fixed income+ products saw a rebound in annualized yields, particularly for products with a maturity of over one month [4][12] Market Conditions - The bond market exhibited a volatile pattern due to the interplay of various factors, including the central bank's liquidity support and the ongoing stock-bond seesaw effect [5][12] - The 10-year government bond yield remained stable at 1.69%, with a slight narrowing of credit spreads [5][13] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 0.91%, down 1.44 percentage points, with credit spreads also narrowing by 1.81 basis points [5][16] - The current credit spread is at a historical low since September 2024, indicating limited cost-effectiveness [5][16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry [3]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management market is facing challenges due to a "low interest rate, low growth, and low risk appetite" environment, which is impacting profitability and asset allocation [4][11]. - There is a significant potential for growth in the wealth management market, necessitating a focus on long-term investment philosophies, technological empowerment, and enhanced customer experiences [4][11]. - Recent trends indicate a recovery in bank wealth management product yields, driven by improved sentiment in the bond market [5][14]. Summary by Sections Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - On August 7, 2025, China Merchants Bank hosted a forum highlighting the wealth management market's potential and the structural challenges faced by institutions [4][11]. - The industry is urged to enhance long-term investment strategies, optimize asset allocation, and improve customer experiences [4][11]. Peer Innovation Dynamics - Huibin Wealth Management launched the "Star Huibin+" multi-asset strategy product system, integrating various investment strategies to enhance risk diversification and return optimization [4][12]. - Xingyin Wealth Management successfully completed the first equity subscription registration project in Fujian Province, marking a significant milestone in their service offerings [4][13]. Yield Performance - For the week of August 4-10, 2025, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.34%, down 2 basis points from the previous week [5][14]. - The bond market exhibited a volatile pattern influenced by various factors, including central bank liquidity support and stock market performance [5][15]. Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products decreased to 0.91%, down 1.44 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in credit spreads [5][24]. - The current credit spread remains at a historical low, suggesting limited value for investors [5][24].

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to a 3% value-added tax (VAT) [3][7] - As of August 3, 2025, 43 out of 46 public equity bank wealth management products have positive annualized returns this year, with 17 products exceeding 10% [3][8] - Ningyin Wealth Management has actively participated in IPO offline subscriptions, engaging in three instances within ten days [3][9][10] - Su Yin Wealth Management launched a "Wealth Management + Charity" product, directing excess returns to support leukemia patients from low-income families [3][11] Yield Performance - For the week of July 28 to August 3, 2025, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.38%, up 3 basis points from the previous week [3][13] - The bond market sentiment improved due to multiple factors, including sustained liquidity support from the central bank and favorable outcomes from political meetings and US-China tariff negotiations [3][17] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 3 basis points to 1.70%, while credit spreads continued to widen but at a slower pace [3][17] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 2.22%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points week-on-week, with credit spreads widening by 1.28 basis points [3][20] - The relationship between net value ratios and credit spreads is generally positive, indicating potential redemption pressure when net value ratios exceed 5% [3][20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The scale of wealth management products has returned to 30 trillion yuan, and it is expected to remain stable above 30 trillion in the second half of 2025. The scale of hybrid products is expected to continue to rise. [2] - The number and scale of wealth management products of bank institutions have decreased significantly, and the market is concentrating towards wealth management companies. It is expected that by the end of 2026, the wealth management market will continue to shift to wealth management companies. [2] - In the first half of 2025, wealth management products increased their allocation of public - offering funds and reduced their allocation of bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit. The proportion of public - offering funds may continue to increase in the second half of the year. [2] - In the low - interest - rate era, the average yield of wealth management products has weakened, and the performance comparison benchmark of newly issued products of wealth management companies has continued to decline. [2] - The bond market may not have a trending market in the second half of 2025. It is recommended to focus on certain types of bonds and conduct interval trading. [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Wealth Management Product Scale - As of H1 2025, the scale of the bank wealth management market was 30.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.72 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024. The scale of cash - management products was 6.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.9 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, and the proportion dropped from 24.4% to 20.87%. The scales of fixed - income (excluding cash), hybrid, and equity wealth management products were 23.4 trillion, 0.8 trillion, and 0.1 trillion yuan respectively, with proportions of 76.3%, 2.5%, and 0.2% respectively, increasing by 3.38 pct, 0.07 pct, and 0.02 pct respectively compared to the end of 2024. [2] - It is expected that the scale of wealth management products in the second half of 2025 may remain stable above 30 trillion yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Concentration - By the end of H1 2025, there were 226 wealth management institutions in the market, including 194 bank institutions and 32 wealth management companies, a decrease of 24 and an increase of 1 (Zheshang Bank Wealth Management) compared to the end of the previous year respectively. [2] - In terms of the number of products in existence, there were 13,900 products of bank institutions and 27,900 products of wealth management companies, a decrease of 2,100 and an increase of 3,600 respectively compared to the end of the previous year. [2] - In terms of the scale of products in existence, the scales of bank institutions and wealth management companies were 3.19 trillion and 27.48 trillion yuan respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 24.0% and + 13.0%. [2] 3.3 Asset Allocation - From the end of 2024 to H1 2025, the scales of bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased from 13.03 trillion and 4.31 trillion yuan to 12.82 trillion and 4.23 trillion yuan respectively. The allocation ratio of interest - rate bonds increased from 2.33% to 3.01%, and the scale reached 0.99 trillion yuan in H1 2025. The allocation ratio of credit bonds decreased from 41.11% to 38.79%, and the scale reached 12.79 trillion yuan in H1 2025. The allocation of public - offering funds increased significantly by 0.42 trillion yuan (the proportion in H1 2025 was 4.2%, an increase of 1.3 pct compared to the end of 2024) to 1.29 trillion yuan. [2] - The proportions of cash and bank deposits and non - standard debt assets in H1 2025 were 24.8% and 5.5% respectively, an increase of 0.9 pct and 0.1 pct respectively compared to the end of 2024. [2] 3.4 Product Yield - The annualized yield of wealth management products has been declining since H1 2023. In the first half of 2025, the average annualized yield of wealth management products was 2.12%, a decrease of 0.53 pct compared to the full - year yield in 2024. [2] - According to Puyi Standard, the performance comparison benchmark of newly issued products of wealth management companies has continued to decline, from 3.21% in Q1 2024 to 2.56% in Q2 2025, and it is expected that the lower limit of the benchmark may reach 2.0%. [2] 3.5 Bond Market Outlook - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term, expecting the 10 - year Treasury bond yield to return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, it is recommended to focus on certain types of bonds such as urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance subordinated bonds. [2] - It is predicted that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and there may not be a trending market. The possibility of a significant bear market in the bond market is low, and it is also difficult for the bond market to have a significant bull market. It is recommended to conduct interval trading. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the development status of wealth management for small and micro enterprises, analyzing their characteristics and the challenges faced in the current business development process, while proposing targeted strategic recommendations [1][2]. Group 1: Current Status and Characteristics - Wealth management for small and micro enterprises involves professional management of various forms of wealth, providing a comprehensive solution for asset allocation centered around client needs [1]. - Jiangsu region has rich market resources and abundant funds, with a high demand for asset preservation and appreciation among clients [1]. - The Bank of Construction has made significant breakthroughs in the number of clients and business scale in wealth management for small and micro enterprises over the past three years [1]. - The majority of small and micro enterprise clients in wealth management are corporate clients and individual businesses, with private enterprises being the core force [1]. - The top five industries among small and micro enterprise clients in wealth management are retail, wholesale, business services, construction and decoration, and software and information technology services [1]. - Overall, small and micro clients prefer low-risk and medium-low risk investment products, exhibiting a conservative investment style [1]. Group 2: Challenges in Wealth Management - Current challenges in advancing wealth management for small and micro enterprises include slow response to wealth allocation needs, low efficiency in customer acquisition through digital platforms, lack of comprehensive and personalized product configuration, and the need for improved professional capabilities among wealth management personnel [2]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - It is recommended to align with national strategies and deepen the inclusive financial service concept in wealth management for small and micro enterprises, enhancing customer financial service experiences [3]. - Product strategies should be refined to utilize a full range of wealth management products, focusing on low volatility, low-risk, and stable return products, with regular updates to product offerings based on performance indicators [3]. - Marketing collaboration and a precise customer service system should be established, providing personalized product configurations and enhancing customer trust through effective asset allocation services [4]. - Strengthening team capabilities at all levels is essential, focusing on product configuration skills and complex product sales, while fostering collaboration between different departments to create a comprehensive financial service mechanism [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant growth in the scale of joint venture wealth management products in 2025, with a notable increase in management sizes for specific companies, indicating a positive trend in the industry [2][6]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The scale of joint venture wealth management has seen a remarkable increase, with five companies reaching a total of 191.7 billion yuan by July 23, 2025, representing an increase of over 50% since the beginning of the year [2][6]. - Among these, the management scale of BNP Paribas and BlackRock's joint venture reached 61.1 billion yuan and 42.8 billion yuan respectively, both showing substantial growth this year [2][6]. - BNP Paribas focuses on stable returns with a strategy centered on fixed income, while BlackRock adopts a multi-strategy approach, enhancing product returns and risk control [6]. Peer Innovation Dynamics - Minsheng Wealth Management has upgraded the redemption speed for its cash management products, allowing for faster access to funds, which enhances investment efficiency and reduces idle cash periods [7]. Yield Performance - For the week of July 14-20, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.37%, down 3 basis points from the previous week, while money market funds yielded 1.22%, down 1 basis point [8]. - The yield gap between cash management products and money market funds narrowed by 3 basis points [8]. - In pure fixed income products, yields for those with maturities under six months generally increased, while those over six months saw a decline [9]. Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spread has been narrowing since May, currently at historical low levels since September 2024, indicating limited value [11][15]. - The net asset value of bank wealth management products has a low break-even rate of 0.84%, down 0.02 percentage points, suggesting stability in the market [15]. Market Outlook - The article suggests that the ongoing regulatory adjustments and low interest rate environment may continue to pressure the yields of wealth management products in the medium to long term [12]. - Companies are expected to focus on low-volatility, high-liquidity assets to manage fluctuations effectively, which may limit potential returns [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products in the context of the bond market, highlighting the stability of short-term interest rates and the potential for credit bonds to outperform interest rate bonds in the near future [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Review of Fixed Income Product Returns - In the past month, the bond market experienced low volatility with positive returns across various fixed income products. The leading performance was observed in rights-embedded bond funds, followed by medium to long-term bond funds [3][8]. - As of July 17, the returns for different products over the past month were: rights-embedded bond funds at 0.89% (previously 0.54%), medium-term bond funds at 0.22% (previously 0.31%), short-term bond funds at 0.19% (unchanged), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.17% (previously 0.15%), and cash management products at 0.11% (unchanged) [3][8]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has shown low volatility with mixed performance between short and long-term bonds. The market sentiment improved due to "anti-involution" policies and the delayed imposition of tariffs by the U.S., which bolstered optimistic expectations [10][11]. - The liquidity in the banking sector was relatively relaxed, with the central bank's actions leading to a slight decrease in short-term interest rates. The one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate fell to 1.63% [11][15]. Industry Events Tracking - On July 11, the National Financial Supervision Administration released the "Financial Institutions Product Suitability Management Measures," effective from February 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing consumer protection and regulating financial institutions' suitability management [37]. Outlook for the Bond Market - Short-term expectations indicate stable interbank certificate of deposit rates, while the long-term outlook remains bullish for bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% [1][31]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to perform better than interest rate bonds, with a focus on maintaining a balanced duration strategy and considering high-grade long-term credit bonds for potential gains [1][40]. Fixed Income Product Strategy and Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, maintaining cash-like products is advisable, while for conservative investors, holding pure bond products with a potential extension of duration is recommended [40][41]. - For more aggressive investors, the article suggests considering fixed income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets, with strategies such as quantitative neutral, index enhancement, and multi-asset approaches [42].