关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 重点推介 "存款搬家"：市场误解了什么？ 误解一：可能低估超额储蓄；"存款搬家"不只是存款 市场关于"超额储蓄"的讨论多关注定期存款、忽视了理财资金规模。基于存款计算的超额储蓄少于4万亿，但考 虑各类资金后全口径超额储蓄接近10万亿，市场算法或低估入市资金。 误解二：可能低估入市速度；非银存款无法准确跟踪"搬家" "非银存款"常被跟踪"搬家"规模，但该指标包括同业业务扰动。"非银净负债"可剔除上述扰动，"9.24"以来其出 现两轮高增，或预示居民出现两轮"存款搬家"，今年下半年更明显。 误解三：可能低估投资属性；超额储蓄主体对资产价格敏感度较高 2021年来居民超额储蓄过度配置固收类资产，但后者超额收益明显下行，较难满足房价下行加快背景下居民的 再投资意愿。2026年伴随名义GDP逐步修复，资金"再平衡"过程或得以延续。 周度研究成果汇总 （12.13-12.19） 首经观点 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见系列" 第61期: 《流动性 "顺风"》 2、"洞见系列" 第106期: 《两个美国: "K型经济"的成因与出路》 3、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "deposit migration" and highlights three common misconceptions in the market regarding excess savings and their implications for investment behavior [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Misunderstanding One: Underestimating Excess Savings - The market's discussion on "excess savings" often focuses on fixed deposits while neglecting the scale of wealth management funds. The excess savings calculated based on deposits is less than 4 trillion, but when considering all types of funds, the total excess savings approaches 10 trillion, indicating that the market may underestimate the funds available for investment [2]. Misunderstanding Two: Underestimating the Speed of Investment - "Non-bank deposits" are commonly tracked to gauge the scale of "migration," but this metric includes interbank business disturbances. By using "non-bank net liabilities," which excludes such disturbances, two rounds of high growth have been observed since September 24, suggesting that residents are experiencing two rounds of "deposit migration," with a more pronounced effect expected in the second half of this year [3]. Misunderstanding Three: Underestimating Investment Sensitivity - Since 2021, residents have excessively allocated their excess savings to fixed-income assets, which have seen a significant decline in excess returns. This situation makes it challenging to meet residents' reinvestment intentions amid a backdrop of accelerating declines in housing prices. The process of "rebalancing" funds may continue into 2026 as nominal GDP gradually recovers [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the technological revolution is irreversible, supported by China's vast market, which allows for multiple rounds of trial and error, forming a complete industrial and supply chain that external fluctuations cannot shake. This perspective was shared by Zhao Wei, Chief Economist at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, during the Southern Finance Forum 2025 [4]. Economic Outlook - Zhao Wei predicts that the economic trend in 2026 will enter a "non-typical recovery" phase characterized by "stable volume and rising prices," where prices shift from a downward spiral to a moderate recovery, leading to improved corporate profits and micro-level confidence [4]. - Structural differentiation will continue, with significant disparities in policy support across different economic sectors, resulting in an unbalanced recovery [4]. A-share Market Insights - Regarding the current discussions on the revaluation of A-shares, Zhao Wei suggests focusing on "capital rebalancing" rather than "value revaluation." He notes that after 2022, the market was overly pessimistic about fundamentals, with the overall A-share dividend yield exceeding the national bond yield by 100 basis points, indicating a severe mispricing of the market [5]. - Four major events have reversed market expectations: changes in the policy environment post-September 2024, the emergence of DeepSeek shifting investment thinking from macro to micro, concerns over U.S. policy stability due to "reciprocal tariffs," and discussions on "anti-involution" leading to a shift of fixed-income funds towards equity assets [6]. Technological Revolution and Investment Opportunities - Zhao Wei maintains an optimistic view on the AI bubble, asserting that the fourth technological revolution will not end due to short-term market fluctuations. He highlights China's unique advantage of a large consumer market that allows for extensive trial and error, ultimately leading to a robust industrial and supply chain [6]. - As the process of "capital rebalancing" deepens in 2026, opportunities in the A-share market are expected to emerge continuously, encouraging investors to seize investment opportunities arising from the non-typical recovery and the new technological revolution [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the technological revolution is irreversible, supported by China's vast market, which allows for multiple rounds of trial and error, forming a complete industrial and supply chain that is resilient to external fluctuations [6][8]. Economic Outlook - In 2026, the economy is expected to enter a "non-typical recovery" phase characterized by "stable volume and rising prices," where prices shift from a downward spiral to a moderate recovery, leading to improved corporate profits and micro-level confidence [6]. - Structural differentiation will continue, with significant disparities in policy support across different economic sectors, resulting in an unbalanced recovery [6]. A-Share Market Insights - Instead of focusing on "value re-evaluation," it is more pertinent to discuss "capital rebalancing." The market has been overly pessimistic about fundamentals, with the overall A-share yield exceeding government bond yields by 100 basis points, indicating a severe mispricing [7]. - Four key events have shifted market expectations: changes in the policy environment post-September 2024, the emergence of DeepSeek shifting investment focus from macro to micro, U.S. tariff policies raising concerns about non-U.S. capital stability, and discussions on "anti-involution" leading to a shift of fixed-income funds towards equity assets [8]. Technological Revolution and Investment Opportunities - The article expresses optimism regarding the AI bubble, asserting that the fourth technological revolution will not be halted by short-term market fluctuations. China's large consumer market allows for extensive trial and error, leading to substantial industrial and supply chain development [8][9]. - As the "capital rebalancing" process deepens in 2026, opportunities in the A-share market are expected to emerge, driven by the non-typical economic recovery and the new wave of technological revolution [9].

12月17日，比特币在第四季度的表现明显落后于股市，这种弱势为明年一月可能出现的反弹提供了积极 信号。周二上午市场交易活跃后，比特币在美国交易时段下午趋于平稳，价格徘徊在87500美元左右， 過去24小时累计上涨约2%。FPG财盛国际表示，包括以太坊ETH 2947.87美元、瑞波币XRP 1.9262美元 以及索拉纳SOL 128.24美元在内的主要山寨币也呈现类似的上涨走势，显示整体加密资产在短期内出现 一定修复。 与此同时，加密相关股票在周一大幅回调后出现反弹。Strategy MSTR上涨约3%，Coinbase COIN上涨 约1%，表明市场风险偏好在一定程度上得到恢复。FPG财盛国际认为，这种现象显示投资者在年底前 依然保持谨慎乐观的态度，核心比特币仓位被保留，而资金在其他资产间仍在观望。 随着年末临近，比特币的季度弱势可能带来资金再平衡的机会。根据K33研究主管Vetle Lunde的分析， 当比特币在第一季度表现落后于标普500指数时，通常会在下一季度迎来上涨；相反，当其表现优于股 票市场时，则可能在随后季度初出现回调。FPG财盛国际认为，第四季度，比特币落后标普500指数幅 度高达26%，显 ...

摘要 近期市场对"存款搬家"重视度上升，但截至目前仍至少存在三点误解。 （一）误解一：可能低估超额储蓄；"存款搬家"不只是存款。 居民存款≠居民全口径储蓄，存款下降≠储蓄入市。 市场关于"存款搬家"的讨论多关注定期存款，认为定 期存款"活期化"是主要途径；但近十年居民定期存款变化多源于"存款与理财转换"的结构性影响，并非 进入股市，譬如2023年以来，以及2018年（资管新规导致表外资金回表，推高居民存款）。我们构建涵 盖居民存款、理财等各类资金的全口径储蓄指标，更准确跟踪居民储蓄变化。 超额储蓄规模大于超额存款，居民将理财资金转配股市也值得关注。 市场基于存款测算居民"超额储 蓄"规模为3.7万亿左右，忽视了理财形成的"超额储蓄"；我们基于全口径储蓄指标，以储蓄率额外上升的 幅度来刻画超额储蓄，目前居民储蓄率达近十五年新高（29.8%），对应超额储蓄规模达9.4万亿以上； 该指标也囊括理财进入股市的潜在规模，更准确跟踪入市资金。 参考历史经验，未来居民储蓄进入股市的潜在规模或在万亿级别以上。 复盘两轮牛市经验，2007年前， 居民超额储蓄规模少，但储蓄进入股市规模达1.6万亿（存量储蓄进入股市）；2014年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the market has misunderstood the concept of "deposit migration," highlighting three main misconceptions regarding excess savings, the speed of market entry, and the investment attributes of excess savings [2][9]. Group 1: Misunderstanding Excess Savings - The discussion around "deposit migration" often equates a decrease in deposits with an increase in market investments, overlooking the role of wealth management products [3][10]. - The constructed comprehensive savings indicator shows that excess savings are significantly larger than excess deposits, with current excess savings estimated at over 9.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 29.8% savings rate, the highest in 15 years [3][26]. - Historical analysis indicates that potential market entry from excess savings could exceed one trillion yuan, with past bull markets showing substantial amounts of savings entering the stock market [4][31]. Group 2: Underestimating Market Entry Speed - The reliance on "non-bank deposits" to track migration is flawed, as it includes interbank business disturbances, leading to an underestimation of the speed at which residents are entering the market [5][34]. - The "non-bank net liabilities" metric provides a more accurate reflection of market entry, showing significant increases since September 2024, suggesting a potential addition of 8,000 billion yuan to securities trading margin [5][37]. - Auxiliary indicators, such as margin deposits and financing balances, indicate a notable "deposit migration" phenomenon, with significant increases in both metrics since mid-2024 [6][41]. Group 3: Investment Sensitivity of Excess Savings - Unlike overseas experiences, excess savings in China since 2021 have shown a stronger investment characteristic, primarily influenced by changes in asset allocation rather than direct consumption support [7][49]. - The reduction in housing expenditures has been a major contributor to excess savings, with a significant decline in housing consumption from 7.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025 [7][53]. - The current environment of declining fixed-income asset yields is pushing residents to seek new investment opportunities, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation behavior [7][63].

Group 1: Misunderstandings about Excess Savings - The scale of excess savings is underestimated; excess savings exceed excess deposits, with a potential market entry scale of over 9.4 trillion yuan[2][33] - The current household savings rate has reached a 15-year high of 29.8%, indicating a significant increase in excess savings[2][33] - The market's calculation of excess savings based on deposits alone (approximately 3.7 trillion yuan) ignores the impact of wealth management products[2][30] Group 2: Underestimating Market Entry Speed - The use of "non-bank deposits" to track the scale of "deposit migration" may lead to underestimations of household funds entering the market, as this figure includes interbank business disturbances[4][38] - Non-bank deposits amount to 35 trillion yuan, while the actual funds entering the stock market (settlement margin) are only 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a significant discrepancy[4][39] - The "non-bank net liabilities" indicator provides a better tracking mechanism for household market entry, showing substantial increases since September 2024[4][41] Group 3: Investment Sensitivity of Excess Savings - Unlike overseas experiences, China's excess savings since 2021 have a stronger investment attribute, primarily driven by changes in asset allocation during real estate adjustments[6][59] - The reduction in housing expenditure has significantly contributed to excess savings, with annual housing consumption dropping from 7.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025[6][59] - Areas with high excess savings are experiencing more pronounced downward pressure on housing prices, indicating a pressing need for asset reallocation among residents[6][64]

Group 1: Misunderstandings about Excess Savings - The market underestimates the scale of excess savings, which is greater than excess deposits, with current excess savings estimated at over 9.4 trillion yuan[2][34]. - The household savings rate has reached a near 15-year high of 29.8%, indicating a significant increase in excess savings[2][34]. - The potential scale of household savings entering the stock market could exceed 1 trillion yuan, based on historical experiences from previous bull markets[3][38]. Group 2: Misunderstandings about Market Entry Speed - The use of "non-bank deposits" to track the scale of "deposit migration" may lead to underestimations, as this figure includes interbank business disturbances[4][42]. - Non-bank deposits total approximately 35 trillion yuan, while the actual funds entering the stock market are only about 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a mismatch in tracking methods[4][42]. - The "non-bank net liabilities" indicator provides a better tracking mechanism for household market entry, showing significant increases since September 2024[4][44]. Group 3: Misunderstandings about Investment Attributes - Unlike overseas experiences, China's excess savings since 2021 have a stronger investment attribute, primarily driven by changes in asset allocation during real estate adjustments[6][63]. - The reduction in housing expenditures has significantly contributed to excess savings, with annual housing consumption dropping from 7.7 trillion yuan to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025[6][63]. - Areas with high excess savings are experiencing more pronounced downward pressure on housing prices, suggesting a greater urgency for asset reallocation among residents[6][69].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the technological revolution is irreversible, supported by China's vast market, which allows for multiple rounds of trial and error, forming a complete industrial and supply chain that is resilient to external fluctuations [1] - In 2026, the economy is expected to enter a "non-typical recovery" phase characterized by "stable volume and rising prices," with a shift from a downward spiral in prices to a moderate recovery, leading to improved corporate profits and micro confidence [1] - Structural differentiation will continue, with significant disparities in policy support across different economic sectors, resulting in an uneven recovery [1] Group 2 - Regarding the current discussion on the revaluation of A-shares, the focus should shift from "value revaluation" to "capital rebalancing," as the market has been overly pessimistic about fundamentals since 2022 [2] - Four key events have reversed market expectations: changes in the policy environment post-September 2024, the emergence of DeepSeek shifting investment thinking from macro to micro, concerns over U.S. policy stability due to "reciprocal tariffs," and discussions on "anti-involution" leading to a shift of fixed-income funds towards equity assets [2] - The scale of "fixed income + products" has more than doubled in a few months, reflecting this context [2] Group 3 - The outlook on the AI bubble is optimistic, with the belief that the fourth technological revolution will not be halted by short-term market fluctuations, highlighting China's unique advantages in consumer market size and the ability to develop substantial industrial and supply chains through iterative innovation [2] - Geopolitical factors are noted as a potential risk, with the possibility of new changes in international relations leading to unexpected global inflation, which could become a risk point in 2026 [2] - The market's ups and downs will not affect the onset of this new era, and as the "capital rebalancing" process deepens, opportunities in the A-share market are expected to emerge continuously [3]