Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.80 CNY based on a 20x P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The recovery in external demand and new domestic scenarios are expected to drive a bottom-up recovery in the sweetener market [2]. - The price of sucralose experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, alongside a notable increase in the prices of basic chemical products like sulfur and sulfuric acid [3]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.92 billion CNY, 8.18 billion CNY, and 8.70 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a recovery trajectory after a decline in previous years [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to be 5,412 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 2.1%, followed by 6,436 million CNY in 2026, reflecting an 18.9% increase [5]. - The company's net profit for 2025 is estimated at 592 million CNY, with a projected growth of 6.3% in 2026, reaching 818 million CNY [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.2% in 2025 to 23.0% in 2026, while the net margin is projected to rise from 10.9% to 12.7% in the same period [5]. Market Dynamics - The supply landscape for sweeteners is anticipated to continue optimizing, with signs of recovery in sucralose exports and positive external demand signals emerging [10]. - The approval of sucralose as a new feed additive for weaned piglets marks a significant opportunity for the company, potentially leading to a demand exceeding 3,500 tons in the domestic market during the five-year regulatory protection period [10].

外需回暖及内需新场景有望带动甜味剂底 部复苏 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于三氯蔗糖价格 25 年出现了较大波动，同时基础化工品硫磺、硫酸价格又出现了 较大上涨，我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 5.92、8.18、8.70 亿元（原 25- 26 年归母净利润为 12.73、14.94 亿元），按照可比公司 26 年 20 倍市盈率，给以目 标价 28.80 元并维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 产品和原材料价格波动；需求不及预期；市场空间、价格假设等测算相关风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,311 | 5,303 | 5,412 | 6,436 | 6,628 | | 同比增长 (%) | -26.7% | -0.1% | 2.1% | 18.9% | 3.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 798 | 657 | 692 | 955 | 1,012 | | 同比增长 (%) | -59.1% | -1 ...