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地缘局势升级,短期油脂延续偏强走势
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 12:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and the price of crude oil may remain strong in the new week. The trading of U.S. biodiesel continues, and external disturbances outweigh the industrial fundamentals, leading to a short - term bullish trend in both domestic and foreign oils and fats. It is recommended to pay attention to the Middle East situation. The September spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil has returned above 1,200, and the previous position for widening the spread should be held cautiously. Attention should also be paid to the January soybean contract. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Points - Last week, the price centers of both domestic and foreign oils and fats moved significantly higher. In the producing areas, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 10 - 17% in the first 20 days of June, and production decreased by 4% in the first half - month. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 43.3% month - on - month in May. The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, the U.S. soybean crush in May was 192.829 million bushels, and the U.S. soybean oil inventory was 1.373 billion pounds. In China, the imports of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseeds in May were 180,000 tons, 110,000 tons, and 336,000 tons respectively. Last week, the spot trading of soybean oil was good, and downstream palm oil buyers restocked. The inventories of soybean oil and palm oil increased to 850,000 tons and 410,000 tons respectively. [7] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price centers of both domestic and foreign oils and fats moved significantly higher. [9] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **External Factors**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and the policy of U.S. biodiesel is becoming clearer, continuously disturbing the crude oil and oils and fats markets. The POGO spread has continued to decline. [12][13] - **U.S. Soybeans**: The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than expected. The NOPA's U.S. soybean crush in May was 192.829 million bushels, the highest in the same period over the years, and the U.S. soybean oil inventory in May was at a multi - year low. The premium of Brazilian soybeans rose to 100 cents per bushel. [12] - **Palm Oil**: In the first half - month of June, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4%, and exports increased by 10 - 17% in the first 20 days. Indonesia's palm oil exports continued to increase in May. India lowered the basic import tax on crude edible oils and cancelled some palm oil orders for July - September. [12] - **Imports and Crushing**: China imported 1.3918 million tons of soybeans in May, with a cumulative import of 3.7108 million tons from January to May, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The imports of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseeds in May were 180,000 tons, 110,000 tons, and 335,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 8.4%, - 20.3%, and - 26.12%. The soybean crushing rate continued to rise, and the soybean inventory in oil mills stopped increasing. The rapeseed crushing rate was low, and the rapeseed inventory in oil mills continued to decline. [12] - **Inventory**: As of mid - June, the soybean oil inventory increased for 7 consecutive weeks to 850,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 810,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month; the palm oil inventory increased slightly to 410,000 tons. The total inventory of the three major oils and fats increased to 1.94 million tons, compared with 1.66 million tons in the same period last year. [12] - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats rose. As of June 20, the price of soybean oil was 8,400 yuan/ton, a 4.5% increase from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 8,863 yuan/ton, a 3.2% increase; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,936 yuan/ton, a 4.22% increase. [12] - **Demand**: Last week, the spot trading volume of soybean and rapeseed oils increased, and palm oil was purchased for rigid demand. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 138,200 tons, compared with 106,600 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 2,308 tons, compared with 12,965 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 47,000 tons, compared with 20,000 tons in the previous week. [12] 3.4 Spread Tracking No detailed content provided other than the section title.