1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation. The overall view is that the prices of oils and fats will rise in the medium and long term. Rapeseed oil may start to rise first, and soybean and palm oils should be traded with the idea of buying on dips [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Supply**: Palm oil is bullish, while soybean and rapeseed oils are neutral. The floods in Sabah, Malaysia, and the deterioration of high - frequency production data bring positive drivers from the origin. Sino - US diplomatic negotiations may affect the trade flow of US soybeans, and the new - crop production of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase [5]. - **Demand**: Neutral to bearish. The high - demand expectation has been priced in before, and there are recent bearish disturbances. The biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US is lower than previously expected, and the trading volume of oils and fats in the domestic peak season is lower than the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: Neutral to bearish. The total inventory of domestic oils and fats continued to accumulate last week, which is a bearish deviation from the previous expectation of "peak inventory and then de - stocking". Rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking with a strengthening basis, while soybean and palm oils are accumulating inventory with a weakening basis [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral to bearish. Trump's visit to China may bring expectations of trade talks. Indonesia is expected to implement B45 next year, and there is still uncertainty about the US biodiesel RVO [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Investment View**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on oils and fats, with rapeseed oil leading the rise, and a strategy of buying on dips for soybean and palm oils [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy on dips. For options, buy out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, go long on oils and short on meals in the far - month contracts, and conduct a positive spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of rapeseed oil [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences between different contracts and varieties, such as P1 - 5 spread, Y1 - 5 spread, OI1 - 5 spread, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][9][15]. 3.3 Supply - and - Demand Fundamentals of Oils and Fats - **Southeast Asia**: Analyzes the weather conditions in Southeast Asia, including precipitation and temperature forecasts, and the monthly supply - and - demand situation of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia, covering production, consumption, exports, and ending inventory [18][30][36]. - **India**: Shows India's monthly imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the international price difference between soybean and palm oils [43]. - **China**: Analyzes China's palm oil import profit, supply, and demand, including import volume, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit. It also covers the situation of US soybeans (including weather, growth rate, export), Brazilian soybeans (export volume), and the supply - and - demand situation of rapeseed and rapeseed oil (including weather, export, domestic arrival, production, and inventory) [49][61][101].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Palm Oil - Malaysian crude palm oil futures may gradually rebound and return to 4,500 ringgit, and then start an upward trend. Domestic palm oil futures will remain range - bound in the short term and may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil later, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. Soybean Oil - Analysts expect the NOPA members' soybean oil inventory in August 2025 to decrease by 5.8% compared to July. Domestic soybean oil has both long and short factors, with supply being sufficient and consumption increasing, and the basis quote fluctuating narrowly [1]. Corn - Short - term market supply and demand are loose, the futures market is oscillating weakly; in the medium term, it will remain weak, and short - selling should be cautious [2]. Sugar - The international raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar market has spot pressure, and the futures market may stabilize around 5,500 in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and a high - selling strategy is recommended [6]. Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and after the new cotton is listed, prices will face pressure [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to rise to the annual high, but the high inventory and cold - storage eggs may suppress the increase. After the traders' replenishment next week, demand may weaken, and local egg prices may decline slightly [9]. Meal - The domestic meal market has a weak demand pattern, but cost support is strong. It is expected that the 01 contract will operate in the 3,050 - 3,150 range [11]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is currently weak, but the decline space is limited. Demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can absorb the supply is uncertain. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [13][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry Price Changes - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton; the futures price (Y2601) rose by 28 yuan to 8,076 yuan/ton, with a 0.72% increase; the basis (Y2601) decreased by 28 yuan to 534 yuan/ton, a 9.80% decline [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 9,320 yuan/ton; the futures price (P2601) rose by 112 yuan to 9,174 yuan/ton, a 1.24% increase; the basis (P2601) decreased by 112 yuan to 146 yuan/ton, a 43.41% decline [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,940 yuan/ton; the futures price (Ol601) rose by 15 yuan to 9,511 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the basis (Ol601) decreased by 115 yuan to 429 yuan/ton, a 21.14% decline [1]. Spread Changes - The soybean oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) decreased by 4 yuan to 300 yuan/ton, a 1.32% decline; the palm oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) rose by 14 yuan to 248 yuan/ton, a 5.98% increase; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) rose by 28 yuan to 380 yuan/ton, a 7.76% increase [1]. Corn Industry Price Changes - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 30 yuan to 2,167 yuan/ton, a 1.37% decline; the basis increased by 30 yuan to 143 yuan/ton, a 26.55% increase [2]. - The futures price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 31 yuan to 2,443 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline; the basis increased by 31 yuan to 117 yuan/ton, a 36.05% increase [2]. Sugar Industry Price Changes - The futures price of sugar 2601 rose by 9 yuan to 5,520 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the ICE raw sugar main contract rose by 0.15 cents to 15.96 cents/pound, a 0.95% increase [6]. Industry Data - The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory also increased. The sugar import volume increased by 160% [6]. Cotton Industry Price Changes - The futures price of cotton 2605 rose by 30 yuan to 13,850 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase; the ICE U.S. cotton main contract rose by 0.06 cents to 66.82 cents/pound, a 0.09% increase [7]. Industry Data - Commercial and industrial inventories decreased month - on - month, while imports increased by 66.7%. The textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [7]. Egg Industry Price Changes - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract rose by 103 yuan to 3,143 yuan/500KG, a 3.39% increase; the egg producer price rose by 0.12 yuan to 3.66 yuan/jin, a 3.45% increase [9]. Industry Data - The egg - to - feed ratio rose by 0.07 to 2.50, a 2.88% increase; the breeding profit increased by 4.71 yuan to - 17.89 yuan/feather, a 20.84% increase [9]. Meal Industry Price Changes - The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 20 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton, a 0.66% decline; the futures price (M2601) decreased by 37 yuan to 3,042 yuan/ton, a 1.20% decline [11]. - The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 50 yuan to 2,600 yuan/ton, a 1.89% decline; the futures price (RM2601) decreased by 27 yuan to 2,504 yuan/ton, a 1.07% decline [11]. Spread Changes - The oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract rose by 0.05 to 2.75, a 1.87% increase; the soybean - to - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market rose by 30 yuan to 430 yuan/ton, a 7.50% increase [11]. Pig Industry Price Changes - The futures price of the pig 2511 contract rose by 20 yuan to 13,275 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase; the Henan spot price decreased by 150 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton [13]. Industry Data - The sample slaughter volume decreased by 590 to 148,082; the self - breeding profit decreased by 35.8 yuan to 17 yuan/head, a 68.02% decline [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. The tight situation in Southeast Asia has quickly eased with the arrival of the production season, but the high output at the beginning of the season has raised concerns about over - exhausting subsequent production. With strong expected exports, inventory accumulation will be slow. The Indonesian B40 policy has been well - implemented, which may support consumption. Domestic near - month imports are expected to decline year - on - year, with little supply - demand contradiction [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The y2601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Overseas, US soybean planting area is down, but the yield per unit is up due to good conditions, and the bearish factors are mostly digested. Brazilian selling pressure has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, but it will turn tight from the fourth quarter [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The Ol601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Globally, the inventory pressure of rapeseed is limited in 2024/25, but the price may be suppressed in 2025/26. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but future supply is expected to tighten [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures prices were mainly in a weak oscillation this week, with the center of gravity moving slightly down [15]. - **Malaysian Data**: As of the end of August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.18% to 2 million tons, production in August rose by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and exports decreased by 0.2% to 1.28 million tons. From September 1 - 10, exports decreased, and production in the south decreased [19]. - **Indonesian Data**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.6 million tons, up nearly 50% from May, and production was 5.29 million tons, up 30.62% year - on - year. The inventory in June decreased by 12.76% to 2.53 million tons. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in September [19]. - **Indian Market**: India lowered the import tariff of crude edible oils in May. Imports increased in June - July. Future imports are expected to remain high for festival stocking, but the import variety structure may change [31]. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybean futures rose after oscillation. The US soybean yield per unit is expected to be 53.5 bushels per acre, and the production will be 4.301 billion bushels. The carry - over inventory is up by 10 million bushels [39][40]. - **Crop Conditions**: As of September 7, the soybean pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 22%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 64%. As of September 9, about 22% of the soybean - producing areas were affected by drought [40][46]. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Production Forecast**: The USDA's August report slightly increased the production forecast for South America in 2024/25. Brazil's production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons [73]. - **Export Situation**: Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong due to the extension of Sino - US tariffs [72][73]. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Supply Situation**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. In 2025/26, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. China has imposed anti - dumping deposit policies on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter [83]. - **Production Forecast**: Canada is expected to produce 19.937 million tons of rapeseed in 2025/26, and the EU is expected to produce 18.84 million tons in 2025/26 [91]. Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: This week, the three major domestic oils maintained an oscillating pattern. Palm and soybean oils declined slightly, while rapeseed oil was basically flat [111]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: Palm oil inventory accumulation will be slow, and the p2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean oil supply will turn tight from the fourth quarter, and the y2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [112][113]. - **Production and Consumption**: In the 36th week, the actual soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 437,700 tons. As of September 5, the rapeseed - pressing volume in southern coastal factories was 29,000 tons. This week, the national key oil - mill palm oil trading volume was 13,833 tons [115][116]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import cost and import profit of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report [131][135][136]. - **Inventory**: As of September 8, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% from last week and an increase of 22.24% year - on - year [139].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats rose first and then fell. The Y2601 soybean oil contract dropped 1.18% to close at 8,358 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract declined 2.88% to close at 9,316 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract decreased 1.02% to close at 9,789 yuan/ton [5][28][29]. 2. Important News - **Palm Oil**: On Tuesday, senior Indonesian government officials revealed that the US has in principle agreed to exempt Indonesian exports of palm oil, cocoa, and rubber products from the 19% tariff imposed by President Trump since August 7. Although the decision is not final, it represents an important step in Indonesia - US economic and trade relations. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 3.40% [6][28]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US Department of Agriculture will release the monthly oilseed crushing report at 3:00 am on September 3, Beijing time. Before the report, a survey of analysis institutions showed that the estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July is expected to increase to 6.218 million short - tons, or 207.2 million bushels. If the average estimate of nine analysis institutions is correct, the crushing volume will increase by 5.1% compared to 197.1 million bushels in June and 7.2% compared to 193.3 million bushels in July 2024. US soybeans fell 0.50% this week [7][29]. 3. Market Outlook - Currently, the impact on international oils and fats is bearish. The end of the fuel consumption peak season has put pressure on crude oil, dragging down the entire vegetable oil market. Coupled with the expected high - yield of US soybeans and the ongoing production - increasing season of Southeast Asian palm oil, vegetable oil prices have declined, leading to a drop in domestic oil and fat prices. However, the increased consumption driven by the start of schools has curbed the decline. If the supply - side pressure persists and the demand side does not improve significantly, the futures prices of oils and fats may continue to oscillate weakly [8][29]. 4. Spot Analysis - As of August 29, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at an average level compared to the past 5 years [9]. - As of August 29, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,320 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of August 29, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,870 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at an average level compared to the past 5 years [12]. 5. Other Data - As of August 22, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 47,000 tons to 1.367 million tons. On August 27, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 49,000 tons to 534,000 tons [16]. - As of August 29, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,854,550 tons [18]. - As of August 29, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 212 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [20]. - As of August 29, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 4 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of August 29, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 81 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The main logic currently is that the global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. The main risk factor is El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The main long positions in soybean oil have increased, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [3][4]. - The spot price of soybean oil is 8,600, with a basis of 66, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. Daily Views - Palm Oil - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [5]. - The spot price of palm oil is 9,500, with a basis of 40, indicating a neutral situation [5]. - On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [5]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - The main short positions in palm oil have decreased, indicating a bearish signal [5]. - The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [5]. Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 143, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [6]. - The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [6]. - The main short positions in rapeseed oil have increased, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production reduction season [7]. - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply - Imported soybean inventory [8] - Soybean oil inventory [10] - Soybean meal inventory [12] - Oil mill soybean crushing [14] - Palm oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed oil inventory [22] - Rapeseed inventory [24] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [26] Demand - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

Group 1 - The USDA unexpectedly reduced U.S. soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres, leading to a short-term bullish sentiment for CBOT soybeans, despite record-high yields limiting price increases [1] - Domestic soybean meal market shows stable basis with good demand, while soybean crushing is expected to increase from 2.1775 million tons last week to 2.3695 million tons this week [1] - The palm oil market in Malaysia saw an increase in exports by 23.67% for the first ten days of August, with production and inventory levels showing growth, but still below expectations [1] Group 2 - The U.S. soybean market is currently undervalued with a supply surplus, lacking clear directional drivers, and may test previous low levels [1] - The Indonesian government plans to implement a B50 biodiesel blending policy by 2026, which may face delays due to testing requirements [1] - Domestic palm oil prices are supported by stable demand and low inventory levels in Southeast Asia, with expectations of strong price fluctuations in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy [1]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term but has limited upside potential, facing resistance at the [9200] price level for the 2509 contract. The tight supply situation in Southeast Asia has eased quickly with the arrival of the production season, but high initial yields have raised concerns about over - production. The Indonesian B40 policy has been effective, and domestic near - term arrivals are increasing, while far - term purchases are limited. Overall, the inventory build - up in Southeast Asia is slow, and the palm oil 2509 and 2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly. [3][4] - Soybean oil is also likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the [8500] price level for the y2509 contract. South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken after the third quarter, and the premium has an upward trend. The good condition of US soybeans, the 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff agreement, and the pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports put pressure on CBOT soybeans. Domestically, near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations, and the supply in the fourth quarter is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. [3] - Rapeseed oil is likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the 9800 price level for the O1509 contract. The global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, providing short - term support for international rapeseed prices. The expected recovery of global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season may suppress the price. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but rapeseed purchases after July have decreased year - on - year, and far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. Overall, rapeseed oil shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. [3] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, the domestic three - major oil indices continued to diverge. Soybean oil continued to rise, while palm oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated widely. As of August 8, the closing price of the 2509 soybean oil contract was 8880 yuan/ton, the 2509 palm oil contract was 8888 yuan/ton, and the 01509 rapeseed oil contract was 9571 yuan/ton. [94] - The BMD crude palm oil futures prices in Malaysia fluctuated widely this week, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. CBOT soybeans fluctuated sideways, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. [14][34] Supply and Demand Analysis Palm Oil - In Malaysia, different institutions' data show that palm oil exports in July decreased compared to June, while production increased. For example, ITS data shows a 6.7% decrease in exports, and SPPOM data shows a 7.07% increase in production. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly, and inventory decreased. The reference price and export tax of Indonesian crude palm oil in August have been raised. [17][18] - India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oils in May, which led to an increase in imports in June - July. However, the palm oil import volume in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons. [29] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated the 2024/25 South American soybean production. Brazil is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, and Argentina is expected to be 49.9 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to rise seasonally. [69] - As of August 3, the US soybean's flowering rate, pod - setting rate, and good - to - excellent rate are relatively good, and the drought - affected area is about 3%. The old - crop US soybean exports are basically completed, and the 24/25 annual export is expected to be 50.3 million tons. [40] - Domestically, the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations. [96] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply has tightened marginally, with significant impacts in Canada and the EU. The USDA expects a recovery in production in the 2025/26 season, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will rise slightly to 10.64%. [77] - Canada's Statistics Bureau predicts a decline in the rapeseed planting area in 2025, and the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture estimates a 200,000 - ton reduction in the 2025/26 rapeseed production. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. [77][82] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - Traders with palm oil or soybean oil inventory should seek to sell at high prices, while those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices to build inventory. Oil - using enterprises should pay attention to price changes when purchasing raw materials. [5][7] - For rapeseed oil, traders with inventory should also seek to sell at high prices, and those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices. Oil - using enterprises need to purchase raw materials and are worried about price increases. [7] Cost - Profit and Inventory - The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report, showing certain fluctuations. [111][113][118] - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 234,300 tons. Among them, soybean and rapeseed oil inventories increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly. [120][121][122] CFTC Positions and Warehouse Receipts - CBOT soybean and soybean oil non - commercial net long positions and their proportions are presented, showing certain trends. - The warehouse receipt volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil as of August 7, 2025, are provided. [136][143][145]

Report Date - The report is dated August 10, 2025 [1] Last Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - Domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but without strong supply themes, the price was hard to rise further and mainly fluctuated at a high level, waiting for the inventory - reduction inflection point in the producing areas. The palm oil 09 contract rose 0.79% last week [2] Soybean Oil - A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders ignited trading enthusiasm, the soybean - palm oil price spread narrowed significantly, and soybean oil showed signs of a catch - up rise. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.52% last week [2] This Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - Malaysia's inventory peak this year has been gradually digested by the market since April. There is no new significant negative factor in the palm oil fundamentals, and the market has started to trade the inventory - reduction trend in the second half of the year. Domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high [3] - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to be less than 180 tons, and the export volume in the first 25 days was poor, estimated to be less than 140 tons. With the continuous driving effect of European biodiesel, the demand in the producing areas is expected to remain high. Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory in July, but conservatively estimated not to exceed 2.2 million tons [3] - In Indonesia, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia remains high, and the prices of various palm oil products and bunches in the Indonesian producing areas are high. The sentiment of traders reflected in the CPO export premium is relatively positive, and palm oil is quite resistant to price drops at present [3] - Rumors of Indonesia's B50 policy and export ban are considered to have a low correlation with the recent price increase of palm oil. The production recovery in Indonesia may fall short of expectations again under the strong demand for European biodiesel raw materials, and the inventory will hover between 1.5 and 3 million tons this year [3] - In the consumer areas, except for sunflower oil, the import profit of crude palm oil has been higher than that of crude soybean oil. Channel inventory reconstruction is underway. As long as the monthly import volume can be maintained above 800,000 tons, it is difficult for Malaysia's palm oil inventory to exceed 2.3 million tons [3] - The market has great differences in Malaysia's palm oil production this year. If Malaysia and Indonesia maintain good yields in August as in the same period last year and from April to May this year, there will be greater inventory - accumulation pressure from August to September. If Malaysia's palm oil inventory cannot exceed 2.3 million tons, the market may have gradually digested this year's inventory peak [3] - August is the last window for the release of palm oil supply pressure. If no effective price pressure is formed during this period, it will be difficult for significant negative supply - side factors to appear in the later oil market. If inventory accumulates more than expected from August to September, combined with the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and potential downward pressure on the crude oil side, palm oil may not reflect potential positive factors in the fourth quarter prematurely and may still have room for correction. However, be vigilant about the positive sentiment caused by earlier - than - expected inventory reduction due to lower - than - expected production from August to September [3][4] - The soybean - palm oil price spread does not have the driving force to return to parity this year. Continuously pay attention to opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [4] Soybean Oil - In mid - to - late July, multiple major producing areas in the US Midwest received good rainfall, which is conducive to the improvement of yield expectations. Before the release of the USDA August report, if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation. Only positive news from Sino - US trade negotiations can drive the rebound of US soybeans [4] - The weak domestic situation of soybean oil has been reversed by a large number of recent export orders. Oil mills' crushing operations are maintained at a very high level. Although domestic apparent demand and提货 are poor, oil mills actively export after finding export trade profits. If this trend continues, it is expected to drive the Chinese soybean - palm oil price spread closer to the international spread [4] - If US soybeans for the October shipment have not been actually purchased, there is still some upward space for the monthly spread and Brazilian premiums, and the prices of oil tanks may be underestimated, which may benefit soybean oil [4] - After the high - production period of palm oil in the third - quarter end, if Sino - US trade issues lead to a soybean import gap, there may be potential upward themes for Brazilian premiums, and there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [4] Overall View - As the last window for the release of palm oil supply pressure, if the production increase in August fails to form effective price pressure, it will be difficult for significant negative supply - side factors to appear later. Be vigilant about the positive sentiment caused by earlier - than - expected inventory reduction due to lower - than - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia from July to August [5] - The soybean - palm oil price spread does not have the driving force to return to parity this year. Continuously pay attention to opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [5] - The current driving factors for soybean oil are US soybean weather, the sustainability of soybean oil exports, and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. After the high - production period of palm oil in the third - quarter end, if Sino - US trade issues lead to a soybean import gap, there may be potential upward themes for Brazilian premiums, and there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil. Currently, the soybean sector lacks its own effective driving force and mainly follows the trend of the oil sector, and the soybean - palm oil price spread fluctuates in a range with a slightly upward trend [5] Disk Basic Market Data Price and Volume Data - Palm oil main contract: opened at 8,918 yuan/ton, reached a high of 9,076 yuan/ton, a low of 8,746 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The trading volume was 2,637,135 lots, a decrease of 70,357 lots, and the open interest was 305,714 lots, a decrease of 88,427 lots [7] - Soybean oil main contract: opened at 8,274 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,486 yuan/ton, a low of 8,210 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,388 yuan/ton, up 1.52%. The trading volume was 2,707,492 lots, an increase of 5,182 lots, and the open interest was 642,331 lots, an increase of 142,575 lots [7] - Rapeseed oil main contract: opened at 9,516 yuan/ton, reached a high of 9,672 yuan/ton, a low of 9,442 yuan/ton, and closed at 9,574 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The trading volume was 3,475,013 lots, a decrease of 133,717 lots, and the open interest was 140,480 lots, a decrease of 48,633 lots [7] - Malaysian palm oil main contract: opened at 4,180 ringgit/ton, reached a high of 4,304 ringgit/ton, a low of 4,159 ringgit/ton, and closed at 4,254 ringgit/ton, up 0.21% [7] - CBOT soybean oil main contract: opened at 53.89 cents/pound, reached a high of 54.55 cents/pound, a low of 52.29 cents/pound, and closed at 52.43 cents/pound, down 2.73% [7] Spread Data - Rapeseed - soybean 09 spread: closed at 1,174 yuan/ton this week, down 6.08% from last week [7] - Soybean - palm 09 spread: closed at - 580 yuan/ton this week, up 8.81% from last week [7] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: remained unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton [7] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: closed at 12 yuan/ton this week, down 75.00% from last week [7] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: closed at 13 yuan/ton this week, down 77.59% from last week [7] Warehouse Receipt Data - Palm oil warehouse receipts: remained unchanged at 570 lots [7] - Soybean oil warehouse receipts: increased by 17,370 lots to 20,370 lots [7] - Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts: remained unchanged at 3,487 lots [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The slowdown of Malaysia's palm oil export data, combined with overseas institutions raising the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America being realized, increased soybean supply pressure, and favorable weather in the US soybean producing areas all put pressure on the oil market [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,838.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -72 yuan and a change rate of -0.81% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,250.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -24.00 yuan and a change rate of -0.29% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,542.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +18.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.19% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,800.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -130.00 yuan and a change rate of -1.46%. The spot basis was P09 + -38.00, with a month-on-month change of -58.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,370.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +20.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.24%. The spot basis was Y09 + 120.00, with a month-on-month change of +44.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,630.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +20.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.21%. The spot basis was OI09 + 88.00, with a month-on-month change of +2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Consultation Palm Oil - According to SGS, the estimated palm oil export volume from Malaysia from July 1 - 31 was 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease compared to the same period last month - Reuters survey showed that the estimated palm oil inventory in Malaysia in July 2025 was 2.25 million tons, an 10.8% increase from June; the estimated production was 1.83 million tons, an 8% increase from June; the estimated export volume was 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% increase from June [2] Soybean - StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% year-on-year increase - Celeres estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 177.2 million tons (previous season: 172.8 million tons) and the export volume would be 110 million tons (previous season: 106 million tons) [2] Other - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 574 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 564 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1,155 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1,129 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1,035 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,015 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 445 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 439 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 468 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotation: Mexico Gulf (September shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 9 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; US West Coast (September shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, a decrease of 9 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 288 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market Situation**: The overall situation of the rapeseed - related market is complex, with various factors influencing the prices of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal. The market is affected by international trade, weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and related policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to high oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory accumulation, expected decline in pig存栏, and policies for reducing soybean meal substitution. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand provide some support. The market is volatile and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is constrained by the off - season of consumption, high inventory in oil mills, and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply. But the reduction in oil - mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease the supply pressure. The market is in an overall volatile state with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil (active contract) were 9542 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), rapeseed meal (active contract) were 2678 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), ICE rapeseed (active) were 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton (down 12.1 Canadian dollars), and rapeseed (active contract) were 5122 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 month spread of rapeseed oil was 70 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal was 246 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 24449 lots (up 6537 lots) and for rapeseed meal were 20192 lots (up 3504 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3487 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal was 1200 (unchanged) [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed was 4855.38 yuan/ton (down 69.12 yuan). The oil - meal ratio was 3.64 (up 0.05) [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 76 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 78 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan) [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8420 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8820 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), and the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 15 tons (up 4 tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 tons (down 5 tons), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 16.52% (up 1.59%) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.65 tons (up 1.1 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 tons (up 0.8 tons); the East China rapeseed oil inventory was 55.5 tons (down 0.77 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 33.41 tons (down 1.72 tons); the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5.7 tons (up 0.15 tons), and the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 26.1 tons (down 0.9 tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 3.27 tons (up 0.36 tons), and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 3.43 tons (up 1.11 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.58% (down 2.02%), and that of put options was 22.57% (down 2.04%); for rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 13.16% (down 2.15%) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 19.06% (up 0.1%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 17.35% (up 0.08%); for rapeseed oil, the 20 - day historical volatility was 11.5% (down 0.16%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 12.39% (down 0.02%) [2]. Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Friday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 1.9% to a two - week low due to heavy selling by speculative funds [2]. - **Soybean Conditions**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the previous week was 68%, and the same period last year was 67% [2]. Key Points to Watch - **Data**: The rapeseed oil - mill operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in each region reported by Myagric on Monday [2]. - **Trade Disputes**: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the United States [2].