1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, the oil and fat market is expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term. The market is influenced by factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, U.S. biofuel policies, and supply - demand dynamics of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5][59]. - Malaysia's palm oil (MPOB) may continue to reduce inventory in March, but the inventory will remain at a relatively high level. The supply - demand situation of Indonesian palm oil is also a key factor affecting the market, and the possible implementation of the B50 biofuel policy may increase palm oil consumption [14][25]. - Indian palm oil imports are expected to decline in March, while overall edible oil imports may slightly decrease [38]. - In the domestic market, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil inventories are relatively high. The prices of these oils are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and import - export conditions [42][43][46]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In March, the overall oil and fat market showed a significant upward trend. At the beginning of the month, due to the Middle - East geopolitical war, the封锁 of the Strait of Hormuz, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the prices of oils and fats also increased. Later, due to factors such as the weakening of crude oil and the adjustments of margin and price limits by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the prices of oils and fats declined slightly. Subsequently, expectations of U.S. biofuel policies, speculation on Indonesia's B50 biofuel policy, and delayed soybean arrivals led to another increase in prices. Recently, due to the news of U.S. - Iran negotiations, the prices of crude oil and oils and fats have been fluctuating at high levels [4][10]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Considering the possible recurrence of geopolitical factors, the short - term oil and fat market is expected to remain volatile at high levels. In terms of fundamentals, Malaysian palm oil may continue to reduce inventory in March but will remain at a relatively high level. Soybean oil is supported by geopolitical factors, positive expectations of U.S. biofuel policies, and delayed soybean arrivals, so it is likely to remain volatile at high levels and is more likely to rise than fall. Rapeseed oil has a relatively low inventory level. Before the arrival of a large amount of Canadian rapeseed and during the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war, it will follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market and remain volatile at high levels [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Due to the ongoing geopolitical disturbances, the oil and fat market may remain volatile at high levels in the short term. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In March, the overall oil and fat market showed a significant upward trend, with palm oil rising by more than 9%, rapeseed oil rising by about 7%, and soybean oil rising by about 5%. Similar to the previous description in the preface summary, geopolitical factors, biofuel policies, and supply - demand relationships have affected the price fluctuations of oils and fats. The Y - 9 05 spread has continued to narrow to around - 1200 [10]. 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil - In February, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. The production decreased by 18.6% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22% to 1.13 million tons [13]. - For March, it is estimated that the production of Malaysian palm oil may increase slightly to about 1.35 million tons, and exports are performing well. The inventory may be reduced to around 2.3 million tons, but it will still be at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly and may continue to decline slightly as the production season approaches. Malaysia has raised the reference price for the export of crude palm oil in April, and the export tax rate has been increased to 9.5% [14][15]. 3.2.3 Indonesian Palm Oil - In 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was about 56.55 million tons, an increase of 7% year - on - year. Exports were 32.34 million tons, an increase of 9% year - on - year, and domestic consumption was 24.77 million tons, an increase of 4% year - on - year. The carry - over inventory was 2.07 million tons, lower than that at the end of 2024 and at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history [24]. - Recently, the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra has been rising, and the CPO tender price has also increased slightly. As the production season approaches, the CPO spot price may continue to decline slightly but is expected to remain relatively high. The POGO spread has decreased significantly, and the biofuel profit has improved, increasing the expected demand for palm oil in biofuel. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 biofuel policy is going well, and there is speculation about the B50 policy. If the B50 policy is implemented in the second half of this year, the additional consumption of palm oil in the biofuel sector is estimated to be about 2 million tons. It is estimated that the CPO reference price in April may be around $995, and the Tax tax may be increased, which will support the palm oil price to some extent [24][25][26]. 3.2.4 Indian Palm Oil - In February, India's edible oil imports were 1.29 million tons, and the cumulative imports in the 2025/26 fiscal year were 5.17 million tons, higher than the same period last year. Among them, palm oil imports were 0.85 million tons, and the cumulative imports in the 2025/26 fiscal year were 2.76 million tons, higher than the same period last year [37]. - In February, India's port inventory decreased slightly to 0.82 million tons, with palm oil inventory increasing to a relatively high level of 0.53 million tons, while soybean oil and sunflower oil inventories decreased to 0.17 million tons and 0.12 million tons respectively. The apparent consumption in India this year has been at a neutral to slightly high level but has declined compared to the same period last year [37]. - Currently, India has occasional import profits for soybean oil and sunflower oil but poor import profits for palm oil. It is expected that India's palm oil imports will decline in March, and the total edible oil imports may slightly decrease to about 1.16 million tons, slightly higher than the five - year average [38]. 3.2.5 Domestic Oil and Fat Market - **Palm oil**: As of March 20, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 808,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,800 tons, a decrease of 4.01%. The import profit is negative, and the current far - month purchases are relatively small. The spot market trading is weak, and the basis is stable at a low level. Considering the geopolitical factors, palm oil is expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term. After the delayed arrival of palm oil in China ends, the inventory is expected to start to decline slightly at the end of March, but it will still be relatively high [42]. - **Soybean oil**: From January to February, China's cumulative soybean imports were 12.55 million tons. It is estimated that the imports in March and April will be about 6.7 million tons and 9.5 million tons respectively. As of March 20, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 860,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,200 tons, a decrease of 2.84%. The basis of soybean oil is stable with a slight decline. The market is concerned about the tightening of customs quarantine for Brazilian soybeans, which may lead to a slowdown in the arrival of Brazilian soybeans. The export of domestic soybean oil is increasing, which has a positive impact on the price. Overall, soybean oil is expected to remain volatile at high levels and is more likely to rise than fall, but the inventory is not expected to be tight, and the far - month basis is expected to decline [43][45]. - **Rapeseed oil**: In February, China's rapeseed crushing was only 32,000 tons. As of March 20, the rapeseed inventory in coastal oil mills was 128,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The market has been purchasing Canadian rapeseed recently, and it is expected that there will be no shortage of rapeseed before June. As of March 20, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 281,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons. The spot market trading is light, and the basis of rapeseed oil is stable with a slight decline. The Middle - East geopolitical war has disrupted the transportation of rapeseed oil, and the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil has been interrupted. In the short term, before the arrival of a large amount of Canadian rapeseed and during the ongoing geopolitical war, rapeseed oil is expected to remain volatile at high levels. However, if the geopolitical situation eases and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [46]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The Middle - East geopolitical war remains the focus of the oil and fat market. Considering the possible recurrence of geopolitical factors, the oil and fat market is expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term. Malaysian palm oil may continue to reduce inventory in March but will remain at a relatively high level. Soybean oil is supported by geopolitical factors, positive expectations of U.S. biofuel policies, and delayed soybean arrivals, so it is likely to remain volatile at high levels and is more likely to rise than fall. Rapeseed oil has a relatively low inventory level. Before the arrival of a large amount of Canadian rapeseed and during the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical war, it will follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market and remain volatile at high levels. However, if the geopolitical situation eases and a large amount of Canadian rapeseed arrives in April, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [59].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) fluctuated and declined. The news of the auction of 100,000 tons of domestic soybeans produced in 2022 on March 26 affected the market, and the tight supply of soybean spot is expected to be alleviated. Coupled with the changes in the Middle East situation, the oil prices are under pressure [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 134 yuan and a decline of - 1.39% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,550.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 44.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.51% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,707.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 106.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.08% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,480.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 200.00 yuan and a decline of - 2.07%. The spot basis was P05 + - 30.00, with a month - on - month change of - 66.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 100.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 1.13%. The spot basis was Y05 + 170.00, with a month - on - month change of - 56.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,240.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 100.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.97%. The spot basis was OI05 + 533.00, with a month - on - month change of + 6.00 yuan [1] Market News - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase from the same period last month - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,389,549 tons, a 51% increase from the same period last month - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 595 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 605 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,255 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1,205 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,130 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1,110 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was 509 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) was 503 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was 478 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 231 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (April shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (April shipment) was 149 cents/bushel, down 1 cent/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is expected to be strongly influenced by the upcoming RVO announcement and is likely to run strongly. Soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans and will experience short - term high - level fluctuations [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil's closing price in the day session was 9,526 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and 9,612 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.90% increase. Soybean oil's closing price in the day session was 8,570 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase, and 8,588 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.21% increase. Rapeseed oil's closing price in the day session was 9,778 yuan/ton with a 0.67% increase, and 9,750 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 0.29% decrease. Malaysian palm oil's closing price was 4,499 ringgit/ton with a 1.60% increase, and 4,526 ringgit/ton with a 0.60% increase. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 67.18 cents/pound with a 2.38% increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 507,766 lots with a decrease of 374,636 lots, and open interest was 339,375 lots with an increase of 1,068 lots. Soybean oil's trading volume was 396,105 lots with a decrease of 108,399 lots, and open interest was 617,170 lots with an increase of 5,771 lots. Rapeseed oil's trading volume was 227,366 lots with a decrease of 60,687 lots, and open interest was 253,670 lots with a decrease of 4,128 lots [2] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,530 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,950 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase. The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,210 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,165 dollars/ton with a 30 - dollar decrease [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 4 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 380 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 432 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 252 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 956 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 56 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 114 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 117 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - CIMB Securities analyst Ivy Ng Lee Fang pointed out that due to the expected increase in exports offsetting the rise in production, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in March 2026 may decrease by 8% month - on - month to 2.48 million tons. If the Middle East conflict continues, palm oil prices still have room to rise [3] - From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 4.29% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% month - on - month, and production increased by 1.55% month - on - month [5] - The IEA will provide 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves to the market due to the significant and rising risks in the oil market caused by the Middle East situation [5] - The GAPKI said that new palm oil export orders have slowed down due to the increase in logistics and insurance costs caused by the Middle East conflict [5] - The BCR maintained its estimates of soybean and corn production in Argentina as the widespread rainfall in February helped stabilize the crop conditions in major planting areas [5] - Soybean harvesting in Brazil's Paraná state is in full swing. Dry weather has facilitated the harvesting work, but irregular rainfall and temperature fluctuations during the growing season have affected the crops. Drought has caused water shortages in some areas, and recent rainfall has interrupted field operations in other areas [5] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 1 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Palm oil: Volatile; Rapeseed oil: Volatile; Soybean oil: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soaring international oil prices triggered by the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran have led to a significant increase in the oil and fat market. The underlying reasons for the rise of the three major domestic oils and fats are different, and their future trends depend on the development of the Iranian situation. If the conflict persists, palm oil may continue to rise, rapeseed oil's near - month contracts will remain strong, and soybean oil will also show an upward trend. If the conflict eases, the oil and fat market will experience a significant correction [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Geopolitical Conflict Intensifies, Driving a Sharp Rise in the Oil and Fat Market - After the US and Israel announced an attack on Iran, international oil and diesel prices soared, leading the oil and fat market to start making up for the increase from the second half of last week. From March 5th to March 9th, the palm oil 05 contract rose 898 points, the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 763 points, and the soybean oil 05 contract rose 618 points [11] - **POGO spread significantly shrank, and biodiesel blending profit turned positive**: The continuous sharp rise in diesel prices led to a rapid shrinkage and negative turn of the POGO price in a short period. The price transmission mechanism from diesel to palm oil is complex, and it takes time for the market to react. The soaring diesel price has increased the possibility of Indonesia significantly raising the diesel reference price in April, which will boost the demand for palm oil. The current situation also increases the likelihood of Indonesia advancing the B50 plan, which is expected to significantly reduce palm oil inventory in 2026 [12][13][18] - **The obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz intensified concerns about the domestic rapeseed oil supply**: After China imposed a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed in March, the import profit of Canadian rapeseed is average. Before May, China's rapeseed oil supply mainly relies on Russian and UAE rapeseed oil. However, due to the conflict, the UAE rapeseed oil cannot be transported to China, which will further tighten the supply and accelerate the destocking process [19][20] 2. Outlook for the Future Prices of Oils and Fats - The short - term core factor for the future trend of the oil and fat market is the development of the Iranian situation. For palm oil, the diesel price is a key influencing factor. As long as the diesel price does not fall significantly below $1000 per ton, palm oil prices will have obvious bottom support. For rapeseed oil, the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial. The improvement of the situation in the Strait can ease the tight supply expectation. Soybean oil is less affected by diesel prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but it will also be influenced by factors such as the strengthening of US soybean oil and rising freight rates, and is expected to remain strong before the conflict eases [28][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The ongoing US-Iran conflict, blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and unexpected production cuts by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have led to strong oil prices, which will continue to boost the oil and fat sector. The G7's plan to release oil reserves may weaken the short - term increase in oil prices, but if the war persists, the supply side will be affected, and oil prices will remain strong [4][41]. - In the bio - diesel aspect, Indonesia's B50 policy is put on hold in 2026, and the B40 policy will continue. The long - term national will to promote bio - diesel remains unchanged. The recent sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the competitiveness of bio - diesel and supported the demand for palm oil. Attention should be paid to the possible shift in Indonesia's bio - diesel policy. The US EPA plans to redistribute at least 50% of the exempted bio - fuel blending obligations to large refineries, which will increase the demand for US soybean oil as bio - fuel and support its price [4][41]. - High - frequency data shows that in February, both supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil decreased, but export demand remained weak. Under the pressure of high inventory, the de - stocking amplitude may be limited. India's palm oil imports in February increased by 10.1% month - on - month to 844,000 tons, reaching a six - month high, and it recently cancelled soybean oil orders, which may increase palm oil imports. Reuters predicts that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of February may drop to 2.63 million tons. Attention should be paid to the guidance given by the MPOB report [4][41]. - After the Spring Festival, domestic palm oil transactions were light. More ships arrived in February, and domestic inventory increased slightly. Macroeconomically, the US non - farm payrolls data in February unexpectedly dropped significantly, and the employment market weakened. The G7's coordination to release oil reserves may limit the short - term rise in oil prices, but if the war continues, oil prices will be strong, providing support for the oil and fat market. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate strongly in March [4][42]. Summary by Directory I. Oil and Fat Market Review 1.1 Oil and Fat Market Trends - Since February, the domestic oil and fat sector first declined and then stabilized. By the end of February, the palm oil 05 contract fell 460 to 8,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.98%; the soybean oil 05 contract fell 56 to 8,226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%; the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 195 to 9,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%. In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 202 to 4,027 ringgit/ton, a decrease of 4.78%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 7.69 to 61.77 cents/pound, an increase of 14.22%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 40.7 to 688.1 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 6.29%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 480 to 8,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.18%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong fell 40 to 8,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell 160 to 9,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58% [9]. - Since February, palm oil has oscillated downward. The reasons include weak export demand, high inventory pressure, the Spring Festival leading to reduced trading and profit - taking by long - position funds, the suspension of Indonesia's B50 bio - diesel policy, and the reopening of the import window for Canadian rapeseed in March. In contrast, strong US soybean crushing demand and the implementation of bio - diesel policy expectations have boosted the price of US soybean oil, and the ICE rapeseed contract has strengthened due to export potential to the US as bio - fuel and increased Chinese import expectations [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - The data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) for January 2026 shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January was 2,815,493 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.72%. Exports were 1,484,267 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.44%. Production was 1,577,454 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.78%. Imports were 32,316 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93% [19]. 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - According to the latest data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Processors Association (SPPOMA), from February 1 - 28, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 19.35% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 19.20%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.03%. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from February 1 - 20 decreased by 12.29%, with production in the Malay Peninsula decreasing by 10.74%, Sabah by 15.23%, Sarawak by 11.20%, and Borneo by 14.19%. - According to the data from shipping survey agency ITS, the palm oil export volume in Malaysia from February 1 - 28 was 1,149,063 tons, a 21.46% decrease compared to the 1,463,069 tons exported from January 1 - 31. According to the data from Malaysian independent inspection agency AmSpec, the palm oil export volume from February 1 - 28 was 1,025,449 tons, a 25.5% decrease compared to the 1,375,718 tons exported in January. According to the data released by shipping survey agency SGS, the estimated palm oil export volume from February 1 - 28 was 852,629 tons, a 9.76% decrease compared to the 944,885 tons exported in January [22]. 2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), in October 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production (including palm kernel oil) was 4.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 460,000 tons compared to September. In October 2024, the production was 4.84 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons, and the five - year average was 4.89 million tons. From January to October 2025, Indonesia's total palm oil production was 48.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.31 million tons compared to the same period last year. - In terms of exports, in October 2025, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons compared to September. In October 2024, the export volume was 2.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to October 2025, Indonesia's cumulative palm oil exports were 27.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.86 million tons. - In terms of domestic consumption, in October 2025, Indonesia's domestic palm oil consumption was 2.23 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 180,000 tons compared to September. In October 2024, the consumption was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the five - year average was 1.84 million tons. From January to October 2025, Indonesia's cumulative domestic palm oil consumption was 20.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. - In terms of inventory, in October 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory was 2.33 million tons, compared to 2.59 million tons in the previous month and 2.5 million tons in the same period last year [28]. 2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Imports - According to the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India's vegetable oil imports in January 2026 were 1.31 million tons, compared to 1.36 million tons in December 2025. In December 2024, the imports were 1.08 million tons, and the five - year average was 1.25 million tons. From November 2025 to January 2026, India's cumulative vegetable oil imports were 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons compared to the same period last year [31]. - In terms of different oils, India's palm oil imports in January 2026 were 770,000 tons, compared to 510,000 tons in the previous month and 280,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 650,000 tons. From November 2025 to January 2026, India's cumulative palm oil imports were 1.91 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 290,000 tons. India's soybean oil imports in January 2026 were 280,000 tons, compared to 510,000 tons in the previous month and 510,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 260,000 tons. From November 2025 to January 2026, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 1.16 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 230,000 tons. India's sunflower oil imports in January 2026 were 270,000 tons, compared to 350,000 tons in the previous month and 300,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 300,000 tons. From November 2025 to January 2026, India's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 760,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [32]. 2.5 China's Oil and Fat Imports - According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in December 2025, China's palm oil imports were 280,000 tons, compared to 330,000 tons in the previous month and 320,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 420,000 tons. In 2025, China's total palm oil imports were 2.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 230,000 tons. - In December 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 220,000 tons, compared to 166,000 tons in the previous month and 213,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 160,000 tons. In 2025, China's total rapeseed oil imports were 2.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons. - In December 2025, China's sunflower oil imports were 65,000 tons, compared to 49,000 tons in the previous month and 47,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 166,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sunflower oil imports were 520,000 tons, compared to 1.086 million tons in the same period last year. - In total, in December 2025, the imports of the above three major oils were 565,000 tons, compared to 545,000 tons in the previous month, 580,000 tons in December 2024, and a five - year average of 746,000 tons. In 2025, the total imports of the three major oils were 5.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 540,000 tons [34][35]. 2.6 Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory - According to the data from Myagric, as of the week of February 27, 2026, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 1.9705 million tons, an increase of 72,200 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 46,400 tons compared to the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 913,300 tons, a decrease of 31,600 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 28,200 tons compared to the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 786,700 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 372,100 tons compared to the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 270,500 tons, an increase of 23,500 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 390,300 tons compared to the same period last year [37]. III. Summary and Future Outlook - The ongoing US - Iran conflict, blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and unexpected production cuts by Middle Eastern oil - producing countries have led to strong oil prices, which will continue to boost the oil and fat sector. The G7's plan to release oil reserves may weaken the short - term increase in oil prices, but if the war persists, the supply side will be affected, and oil prices will remain strong. In the bio - diesel aspect, Indonesia's B50 policy is put on hold in 2026, and the B40 policy will continue. The long - term national will to promote bio - diesel remains unchanged. The recent sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the competitiveness of bio - diesel and supported the demand for palm oil. Attention should be paid to the possible shift in Indonesia's bio - diesel policy. The US EPA plans to redistribute at least 50% of the exempted bio - fuel blending obligations to large refineries, which will increase the demand for US soybean oil as bio - fuel and support its price [41]. - High - frequency data shows that in February, both supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil decreased, but export demand remained weak. Under the pressure of high inventory, the de - stocking amplitude may be limited. India's palm oil imports in February increased by 10.1% month - on - month to 844,000 tons, reaching a six - month high, and it recently cancelled soybean oil orders, which may increase palm oil imports. Reuters predicts that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of February may drop to 2.63 million tons. Attention should be paid to the guidance given by the MPOB report. After the Spring Festival, domestic palm oil transactions were light. More ships arrived in February, and domestic inventory increased slightly. - Macroeconomically, the US non - farm payrolls data in February unexpectedly dropped significantly, and the employment market weakened. The G7's coordination to release oil reserves may limit the short - term rise in oil prices, but if the war continues, oil prices will be strong, providing support for the oil and fat market. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate strongly in March [42].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: March 5, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 8988 | 9050 | 9084 | 8938 | 9002 | 20 | 0.22% | 420332 | 361707 | -9884 | | P2609 | 8668 | 9040 | 9006 | 8944 | 9024 | 26 | 0.29% | 52853 | 92208 | 3328 | | Y2605 | 8332 | 8370 | 8422 | 8322 | 8370 | 38 | 0.46% | 291264 | 658889 | 1760 | | Y2609 | 8310 | 8350 | 8398 | 8292 | 8340 | 30 | 0.36% | 69057 | 256042 | 6553 | | O1605 | 9418 | 9496 | 9577 | 9430 | 9486 | 68 | 0.72% | 195441 | 277988 | 5120 | | O1609 | 9384 | 9437 | 9494 | 9347 | 9401 | 17 | 0.18% | 26381 | 55450 | 6804 | [7] Spot Price and Basis Information - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader's quotation: Spot: OI2605 + 360; April - May: OI2605 + 280; May - July: OI2605 + 120 - East China market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil: Spot: Y05 + 280; Far - month price: March - April: Y05 + 300; March - May: Y05 + 280; April - May: Y05 + 250; June - September: Y09 + 230; Third - grade soybean oil: Y05 + 260; Degummed soybean oil: March - May: Y05 + 100 - Guangzhou Yihai 18 - degree palm oil: Y05 + 140; Dongguan factories' 24 - degree palm oil: Y05 - 40; Guangdong national standard 24 - degree palm oil: Y05 + 0 [7] Oil and Fat Comment The oil and fat sector rose and then fell with sharp price fluctuations, mainly supported by the strengthening of international crude oil futures. Reports suggest that Chinese and US officials are expected to meet this month to prepare for the meeting between the US President and the Chinese leader, alleviating concerns that the US - Israel attack on Iran might lead to the breakdown of US - China trade negotiations. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) plans to release its monthly report on March 10. Due to the uncertainties brought by the Middle East conflict, trading in the market has become more cautious. In the near future, the oil and fat market is expected to follow the trend of crude oil, with a bullish view but no chasing of high prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of US biodiesel policies and the trend of international crude oil prices. [8] Group 3: Industry News - StoneX lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to 177.8 million tons, a reduction of 3.8 million tons or 2.09% from the previous forecast of 181.6 million tons. However, the revised production is still at a record - high level. Weather problems have caused some damage to the crops, especially the late and irregular rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul. [9] - USDA's monthly soybean crushing report shows that the soybean crushing volume in January 2026 was 227.8 million bushels, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month and a 7% increase year - on - year. This figure is slightly higher than the market expectation of 226.3 million bushels. As of the end of January 2026, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.433 billion pounds, a 11.7% increase from the previous month and a 33.9% surge year - on - year. This data also exceeds market expectations and is the highest since April 2023. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the spot price of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, palm oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [11][15][19][25][29][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to be weak in the short - term and remain in a mid - term oscillation. The palm oil market is expected to be strong in the short - term and also remain in a mid - term oscillation [5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillation with a weak bias; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Reference view: oscillation with a weak bias [5][6] - **Core Logic**: International soybean import cost and potential freight increase expectations support the bottom of the soybean meal price. However, the domestic spot market is weak, with sufficient supply of soybeans and soybean meal, high inventory (although it has decreased month - on - month), and weak demand from downstream feed enterprises, leading to weak spot basis. In the long - term, the high inventory, weak demand, and the replenishment of the gap by far - month soybean purchases will suppress the price [5] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillation with a strong bias; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a strong bias; Reference view: oscillation with a strong bias [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The oil market is oscillating at a high level due to geopolitical risk premiums and fundamental factors. International crude oil prices support the oil market. The Malaysian palm oil market shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with inventory expected to fall to a four - month low in late February. In China, the near - month arrival of palm oil is concentrated, inventory has increased significantly, and demand recovery is slow due to the off - season. The palm oil market is dominated by macro - sentiment and supply - demand differences and is overall oscillating with a strong bias [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: March 4, 2026 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The oil and fat sector continued to strengthen, mainly due to the continuous military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, which pushed up crude oil prices. The oil and fat market is expected to follow the trend of crude oil and be bullish in the near future. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US biodiesel policy and the trend of international crude oil prices [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Spot: OI2605 + 450, April - May: OI2605 + 280, May - July: OI2605 + 120. East China market soybean oil basis prices: March: Y2605 + 340, April - May: Y2605 + 280, May - July: Y2609 + 260, June - September: Y2609 + 250. Palm oil basis quotes were stable with a slight decline: East China port 24 - degree 05 - 60, 24 - degree refined 05 + 230 (yuan/ton) [7] - In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 21.5% - 25.5% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in February may have decreased for the second consecutive month, with an expected decrease of 6.52% from January to 2.63 million tons, the lowest since November last year. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) plans to release its monthly report on March 10 [7] Group 5: Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in February decreased by 19.35% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 19.2% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.03% month - on - month [8] - AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in February were 1,025,449 tons, a 25.5% decrease from January. ITS data showed that exports were 1,149,063 tons, a 21.5% decrease from January, with exports to China increasing by 17,800 tons to 58,000 tons compared to the previous month. SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports in February 2026 were 852,629 tons, a 9.76% decrease from January, with exports to China increasing significantly from 44,000 tons to 57,000 tons [8][9] Group 6: Data Overview - USDA压榨月报: In January 2026, the US soybean crushing volume was 227.8 million bushels, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month and a 7% increase from the same period last year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 226.3 million bushels. As of the end of January 2026, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.433 billion pounds, a 11.7% increase from the previous month and a 33.9% surge from the same period last year, the highest level since April 2023 [14] - As of February 27, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season reached 78.34% of the planted area, higher than 65.75% a week ago but lower than 82.30% in the same period last year. The predicted soybean production in the state in the 2025/26 season is 50.5 million tons, a 0.74% decrease from the record - high production of the previous year [14]

Group 1: General Information - Report date is March 3, 2026 [2] - Reported industry is the oil and fat industry [1] - Researchers are Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 8756 | 8814 | 8922 | 8768 | 8898 | 142 | 1.62% | 489772 | 387932 | -560 | | P2609 | 8776 | 8814 | 8944 | 8784 | 8920 | 144 | 1.64% | 55344 | 90314 | 1730 | | Y2605 | 8226 | 8246 | 8304 | 8208 | 8260 | 34 | 0.41% | 328276 | 656400 | -10210 | | Y2609 | 8184 | 8218 | 8278 | 8174 | 8244 | 60 | 0.73% | 75167 | 242090 | 5961 | | O1605 | 9208 | 9210 | 9390 | 9196 | 9366 | 151 | 1.64% | 248126 | 268810 | 10866 | | O1609 | 9191 | 9196 | 9352 | 9188 | 9330 | 39 | 1.51% | 25736 | 44208 | 4705 | [7] Spot Price Quotes - Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Spot: OI2605 + 450, April - May: OI2605 + 280, May - July: OI2605 + 120 - East China market soybean oil basis price: March: Y2605 + 340, April - May: Y2605 + 280, May - July: Y2609 + 260, June - September: Y2609 + 250 - Palm oil basis quotes are stable with a slight decline: East China port 24 - degree 05 - 60, 24 - degree refined 05 + 230 (unit: yuan/ton) [7] Core Viewpoint - The intensification of geopolitical conflicts has caused a significant increase in crude oil futures prices, driving the overall strength of the oil and fat sector. On February 28, the Ministry of Commerce officially ruled that Canadian - imported rapeseed was being dumped and announced that a 5.9% anti - dumping duty would be imposed on relevant Canadian companies for five years starting from March 1, 2026, which was in line with expectations. In the near future, the oil and fat market is expected to follow the trend of crude oil and be viewed bullishly. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US biofuel policy and the trend of international crude oil prices [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) of Malaysia, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 19.35% month - on - month in February, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 19.2% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.03% month - on - month [9] - According to data released by the independent inspection agency AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in February was 1,025,449 tons, a decrease of 25.5% compared to the 1,375,718 tons exported in January [9] - According to data released by the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in February was 1,149,063 tons, a decrease of 21.5% compared to the 1,463,069 tons exported in January. The exports to China were 58,000 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons compared to 40,100 tons in the previous month [9] - According to data released by the cargo inspection agency SGS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from February 1 - 28, 2026, was 852,629 tons, a decrease of 9.76% compared to the 944,885 tons exported in January. The exports to China were 57,000 tons, a significant increase compared to 44,000 tons in the same period of the previous month [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple charts such as the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China, palm oil basis changes, the spot price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil in East China, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in East China, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][16][22][24][30][31]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: February 26, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the oil and fat sector [8] 3. Core Viewpoints - The three major oils and fats showed divergent trends, with palm oil being the weakest and used as a short - position in arbitrage [8] - The RVO final decision in early March is crucial for the oil and fat market, and the market is closely watching the final policy implementation [8] - Due to the resurgence of rumors about the clearance of imported soybeans in China, the relatively slow soybean harvest in Brazil, and the downward adjustment of Brazil's export forecast for February by institutions, the soybean oil futures continued to rise, and the spot price increased following the market, while the basis quotation declined steadily [8] - The high - frequency data of Malaysia's palm oil production and exports in February indicate a significant reduction in inventory in February. The fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil continue to improve, but it faces seasonal production increases in March. Without strong demand, the price is likely to fluctuate within a range [8] - ICE rapeseed followed the rise of CBOT soybeans, driving up the cost of imported rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed oil spot basis remains strong, providing strong support for near - month contracts, and the subsequent trend depends on the substantial increase in the oil mill's operating rate [8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil quotes: From May to June, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 300, and first - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 500. The basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: First - grade soybean oil, spot price is Y05 + 380, fixed - price is 8510 yuan/ton; far - month prices vary by period. The price of third - grade soybean oil is 05 + 360, and degummed soybean oil is 05 + 250. The palm oil quotes of Guangzhou traders are stable: Dongguan 24 - degree palm oil is 05 + 50 in March [7] 4.2 Industry News - From February 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 12.29% month - on - month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 10.74% month - on - month, Sabah decreased by 15.23% month - on - month, Sarawak decreased by 11.20% month - on - month, and East Malaysia decreased by 14.19% month - on - month [10] - In the third week of February 2026, Brazil's soybean export pace was lower than the same period last year. From February 1 - 20, Brazil's soybean export volume was 4.085 million tons, compared with 6.428 million tons in February last year. The average daily export volume so far in February was 314,205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. The average export price of soybeans so far in February was $417.1 per ton, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [10] 4.3 Data Overview - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean export volume in February 2026 is 10.69 million tons, about 0.8 million tons lower than the previous week's estimate, but still 9.9% higher than 9.726 million tons in February last year. It is expected that Brazil's soybean export volume in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons [17] - As of February 20, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season has reached 65.75% of the planted area, higher than 51.01% a week ago, slightly lower than 66.16% in the same period last year, but still higher than the five - year average progress of 57.25%. It is predicted that the soybean production in this state in the 2025/26 season will be 50.5 million tons, a 0.74% decrease from the record - high production of the previous year [17]