「2025.12.31」 瑞达期货研究院 菜籽类市场周报 沿海油厂维持停机 支撑菜油粕基差 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货小幅收涨，05合约收盘价9087元/吨，较前一周+41元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：加拿大农业及农业食品部（AAFC）在17日报告中，将加拿大2025/26年度油菜籽期末 库存预估上调45万吨，至295万吨，高于上年度的159.7万吨，加菜籽供需格局明显好转，继续牵 制其市场价格。其它方面，高频数据显示，前25日马棕产量下滑且出口数据改善，且近期马来西 亚预期将有更大范围的降雨，强化马棕减产预期，支撑马棕市场价格。国内方面，现阶段油厂继 续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价格形成支撑。并且受大豆通关政策可能收紧的消 息影响，提振国内油脂市场。不过，随着澳大利亚菜籽陆续到港后期进 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high-frequency data in Malaysia has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. It is expected that the market will continue to decline after a short-term rebound, waiting for the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders' purchases and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and avoid chasing high prices. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24-degree Palm Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8,650, 8,590, and 8,490 respectively, down 20 from December 26, 2025. The spot basis of palm oil futures in South China was 5,000, 4,000, and 3,000 [1] - **First-grade Soybean Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8,250, 8,390, and 8,400 respectively compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - **Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9,880, 9,930, and 10,130 respectively, up 100 from December 26, 2025. The spot basis of soybean oil futures in North China was 2,000, 1,500, and 1,000 [1] Futures Data - **Soybean-Palm Oil Main Contract Spread**: On December 29, 2025, it was -694, up 38 from December 26, 2025 [1] - **Rapeseed-Soybean Main Contract Spread**: On December 29, 2025, it was 1,222, up 12 from December 26, 2025 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil remained unchanged at 260, 28,264, and 3,456 respectively from December 26 to 29, 2025 [1] Industry News - **Indonesia**: On December 19, 2025, the Indonesian Energy Minister stated that the country had launched the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months, and the mandatory use policy is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - **Malaysia**: MPOC expects the crude palm oil price to fluctuate between 3,800 and 4,100 ringgit per ton in January next year. According to MPOA, from December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, from December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; from December 1 - 20, exports increased by 2.4%; from December 1 - 15, exports decreased by 15.9%. According to AmSpec, from December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Brazil**: ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons [2] - **USA**: The USDA announced that private exporters reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - **India**: According to SEA data, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% to 632,341 tons compared to October. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% to 370,661 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% to 142,953 tons, reaching a two - year low. The total edible oil imports in November decreased by 13.3% to 1.15 million tons, a seven - month low. In November, India imported 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China, a record high [2]

油脂日报 | 2025-12-18 利空因素叠加，油脂持续承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8342.00元/吨，环比变化-68元，幅度-0.81%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7822.00 元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.64%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8950.00元/吨，环比变化-113.00元，幅度-1.25%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8390.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.47%，现货基差P05+48.00，环比变化 +28.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8250.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.36%，现货基差Y05+428.00， 环比变化+20.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9420.00元/吨，环比变化-140.00元，幅度-1.46%，现货基差 OI05+470.00，环比变化-27.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部（USDA）公布数据，民间出口商报告对中国出口销售19.8万吨大豆，对墨西哥出 口销售177055吨玉米，对未知目的地出口销售12.5万吨大豆，均于2025/2026年度交货。美国大豆、玉米 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-09 供应端持续宽松，油脂承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8706.00元/吨，环比变化-64元，幅度-0.73%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8230.00 元/吨，环比变化-36.00元，幅度-0.44%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9502.00元/吨，环比变化-116.00元，幅度-1.21%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8670.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.57%，现货基差P05+-36.00，环比变化 +14.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8400.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.47%，现货基差Y05+170.00， 环比变化-4.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9750.00元/吨，环比变化-120.00元，幅度-1.22%，现货基差 OI05+248.00，环比变化-4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，咨询机构AgRural周一表示，截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植面积已达预 期面积的94%。巴西2025/26年度玉米总产量预计为1.353亿吨，而上一年度为1.411亿吨。马来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,472, with a basis of 188, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,690, with a basis of 38, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. The supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,145, with a basis of 375, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [4]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

官 方 网 线 型 www.itf.com.cn 00-8888-598 | | | | | | 油脂数据日报。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | 国贸期货出品 | | 2025/11/24 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业证号 | 176 | 投资咨询证号 | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号。 | | | 国学 陈凡生 | | F03117830 | Z0022681 | | | | 24度棕櫚油 2025/11/21 | | 2025/11/20 | 一口价变动 | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 一天津 8660 | | 8860 | -200 | 5000 | | | | | | 8540 张家港 | | 8740 | -200 | 4000 | | | | | | 黄浦 8470 | | 8670 9 | -200 | 3000 | | | | | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the prices of vegetable oil futures rose first and then fell. The uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy and the decrease in palm - oil exports in Malaysia from November so far led to the decline of the international vegetable oil market, which in turn drove the overall decline of domestic vegetable oil futures prices. - For soybean oil, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy dampens market confidence. Domestic oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with sufficient supply, and the inventory is expected to remain high. - For rapeseed oil, the upcoming arrival of Australian rapeseeds weakens the market's concern about future supply. - For palm oil, both the international and domestic markets are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals lack positive support. It is expected that vegetable oil prices will be weak in the near future. [9][31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - This week, the soybean oil Y2601 contract fell 0.80% to close at 8,190 yuan/ton, the palm oil P2601 contract fell 1.09% to close at 8,550 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil OI2601 contract fell 1.08% to close at 9,816 yuan/ton. [5][30] 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm - oil exports from November 1 - 20 were 828,680 tons, a 14.1% decrease from the same period last month. According to shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia's palm - oil exports from November 1 - 20 are expected to be 471,222 tons, a 40.6% decrease from the same period last month. Malaysia's palm oil fell 1.38%. [7][30] - **Soybean Oil**: The International Grains Council lowered the global soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 1.6 million tons to 426.4 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous year, but still much higher than the recent average. Argentina's soybean production forecast was lowered to 47.8 million tons, China's to 20.9 million tons, and India's to 13.3 million tons. US soybeans rose 0.36% this week. [7][30] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [10] - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [11] - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [13] 3.4 Other Data - As of November 19, 2025, the national soybean - oil inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 1.373 million tons, and the national commercial palm - oil inventory increased by 6.60 million tons to 0.689 million tons. [17] - As of November 20, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 8,170,220 tons. [19] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [21] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 104 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [22] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 344 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting the bottom. The negative news from the overseas producing areas has basically been exhausted, and the market is waiting for more information, especially the rhythm of China's soybean purchases from the US. [31] - Domestically, the inventory of soybean oil is expected to stop increasing and decline, and with cost support, soybean oil is relatively resistant to decline. The narrowing price difference between palm oil and soybean oil improves the cost - effectiveness of palm oil. [31] - The pessimistic sentiment in the edible oil market has priced in short - term negatives, but the core contradictions remain. The high - yield of palm oil is not sustainable, and the expansion of biodiesel demand is a definite trend. Soybean oil has solid cost support, and the domestic inventory pressure can be adjusted through the import rhythm. Although rapeseed oil has high policy risks, the de - stocking trend remains under the background of global rapeseed production reduction. The edible oil sector is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting the bottom. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 0.69% to close at 8,184 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract fell 1.19% to close at 8,660 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.18% to close at 9,533 yuan/ton. [5][30] 3.2 Important Information - **Palm oil**: In October, due to more working days and better weather, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase 6% month - on - month to 1.95 million tons, with a significantly higher increase than the historical average. The estimated export volume is 1.47 - 1.48 million tons. Despite increased domestic consumption, the palm oil inventory is expected to accumulate to over 2.4 million tons at the end of October. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 2.26%. [7][30] - **Soybean oil**: China's soybean imports in October reached a record high for the month, at 9.48 million tons, a 17.2% increase from 8.09 million tons in the same period last year. From May to October this year, China's soybean imports repeatedly hit new highs. In the first 10 months, China's soybean imports increased 6.4% year - on - year to 95.68 million tons. However, imports in October decreased 26.3% compared to September, reflecting a typical seasonal pattern. US soybeans rose 0.20% this week. [7][31] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,360 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [10] - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [11] - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the futures main - contract price was 9,564 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan/ton. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [12] 3.4 Other Data - As of October 31, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 1.462 million tons. On November 5, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 19,000 tons to 620,000 tons. [16] - As of November 6, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7,956,210 tons. [19] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 172 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [20] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 192 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [21] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 286 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [23] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The content is basically the same as the core view of the report, emphasizing the price trends of palm oil and soybean oil this week, and the future market outlook for the edible oil sector. [30][31]

1. Overall Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and may fall further, with potential support at 4000 - 4100 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures are also under pressure, expected to test 8500 - 8600 yuan for support. Overall, a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [1]. - Soybean oil: There are both bullish and bearish factors. The overall supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, but due to factors such as high Brazilian soybean prices and potential factory shutdowns, the spot basis quote has limited short - term fluctuation space [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: Currently, the supply is abundant, and the price is in a downward channel. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the new - season cost price of 2050 yuan. In the long - term, it will be in a tight - balance pattern with policy support [2]. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2601 has increased slightly, and the market situation is affected by the corn market [2]. 2.3 Meal Products - Meal products: The expectation of China purchasing US soybeans has increased, and the domestic cost support remains. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and poor crushing margins, the domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong [5]. 2.4 Live Pigs - Live pigs: The market supply is relatively loose, and the pig price has weakened. There may be short - term support from secondary fattening, but there will be increased supply pressure in November and December, and the futures market is following the spot market down [7]. 2.5 Sugar - Sugar: The expected increase in supply surplus and weak energy prices have led to a weakening of raw sugar prices. Domestic sugar prices are also under pressure but have cost support at around 5400 yuan, and the market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [10]. 2.6 Cotton - Cotton: The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [12]. 2.7 Eggs - Eggs: The short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, the price may gradually rise, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8400 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8128 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 0.49%); the basis was 272 yuan, up 40 yuan (17.24%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Guangdong was 8700 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.57%); the futures price of P2601 was 8764 yuan, down 64 yuan (- 0.72%); the basis was - 64 yuan, up 14 yuan (17.95%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.51%); the futures price of O1601 was 9422 yuan, down 107 yuan (- 1.12%); the basis was 328 yuan, up 57 yuan (21.03%) [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On November 3, the flat - hatch price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port was 2130 yuan, up 19 yuan (0.90%); the basis was 0 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 100.00%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 97 yuan, up 5 yuan (4.90%) [2]. - **Corn starch**: On November 3, the price of corn starch 2601 was 2440 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.87%); the basis was 70 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 23.08%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.70%) [2]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3020 yuan, up 50 yuan (1.68%); the futures price of M2601 was 3021 yuan, up 27 yuan (0.90%); the basis was - 1 yuan, up 23 yuan (95.83%) [5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2470 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.40%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2388 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 82 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.80%) [5]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of live pigs 2605 was 11895 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of live pigs 2601 was 11815 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 0.55%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 300.00%) [7]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, with the price in Henan at 12500 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price in Shandong at 12550 yuan, unchanged; etc [7]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of sugar 2601 was 5483 yuan, up 11 yuan (0.20%); the price of sugar 2605 was 5413 yuan, up 6 yuan (0.11%); the 1 - 5 spread was 70 yuan, up 5 yuan (7.69%) [10]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.17%); the Nanning basis was 337 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 1.75%); the Kunming basis was 297 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 5.11%) [10]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of cotton 2605 was 13605 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13595 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 5 - 1 spread was 10 yuan, unchanged [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14674 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.11%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14860 yuan, up 17 yuan (0.11%); the 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1069 yuan, up 21 yuan (2.00%) [12]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3146 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 0.35%); the price of the egg 01 - contract was 3318 yuan, down 35 yuan (- 1.04%); the basis was - 203 yuan, up 21 yuan (9.39%); the 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, up 24 yuan (12.24%) [14]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.80 yuan, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled hen price was 4.11 yuan, down 0.18 yuan (- 4.20%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.35, up 0.04 (1.73%); the breeding profit was - 26.10 yuan, up 2.61 yuan (9.09%) [14].

Report Date - The report is dated November 2, 2025 [1] Last Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - The market was concerned about the large production volume in Malaysia in the fourth quarter. Without effective demand drivers and supply stories, the palm oil 01 contract continued to decline, with a weekly drop of 4.01%. Attention was paid to the support level at 8,200 - 8,400 [2] Soybean Oil - The production situation in Brazil was favorable. In a well - supplied environment, soybean oil was difficult to have an independent driving force and mainly followed the weak oscillation of the oil and fat sector. However, the strong export demand and the inevitable inventory reduction process of soybean oil kept it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties. The soybean oil 01 contract dropped 0.71% last week [2] This Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - In Malaysia, the overall production and rainfall conditions this year were favorable, which might lead to the fourth - quarter production being above the level of the same period last year. The year - end inventory was expected to be at a relatively high level of around 2 million tons. The supply side needed an additional production reduction to stimulate a price increase. The price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia stabilized and rose. Indonesia's production in October should return below 5 million tons, but the inventory accumulation trend after August was difficult to reverse. The market's speculation that Indonesia's actual inventory was above 6 million tons made the actual inventory level lose its trading significance. In the short term, it was difficult to see a strong driving force in the origin. There were even concerns about the later inventory accumulation speed in Indonesia. Even if Malaysia's inventory decreased rapidly after October, starting from 2.36 million tons in September, there was a high possibility that the combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia would recover to over 5 million tons by the end of the year. The driving force from the origin for the oil and fat market this year had decreased. - In the sales area, the forward import profit of Indian CPO increased rapidly, which stimulated India to buy a large number of ships, possibly having a certain price - supporting effect but no additional positive factors. The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector declined rapidly recently. Without the improvement of the operating rate this year, the inventory accumulation pressure was large by the end of the year. Before the specific blending policy was implemented next year, it was too early for US soybean oil to rebound. In the fourth quarter, the international demand side was difficult to provide further stimulation. The only positive factor was that the profit and stocking sentiment of European biodiesel were still good, but this high profit was mainly due to the high price caused by the HVO liquidity problem, and the boost to raw material demand had an upper limit. - In conclusion, as US soybean oil was difficult to improve substantially, international oil and fat prices were suppressed and lost the biggest driving force for reversal. Although Malaysia's inventory was likely to reach an inflection point in October and would experience rapid inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, Indonesia's inventory was also likely to bottom out in August. By the end of the year, it was difficult to achieve a significant reduction in the origin's inventory, which was expected to increase to the level at the end of 2023. There was no strong upward driving force from the origin, and it was not excluded that the price would continue to decline to the price platform at the end of June, i.e., the 8,200 - 8,400 range. The upward opening of the palm oil price space could only be expected from the implementation of B50 and unexpected production in the fourth quarter [3] Soybean Oil - The support level of the cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in biodiesel decreased with the decline of crude oil prices. The progress of the Sino - US soybean procurement agreement might make Trump no longer consider the rapid development of the biodiesel sector. The issue of SRE redistribution made it more difficult to formulate rules, and the final announcement of RVO was likely to be delayed. Before the policy was implemented, the inevitable inventory accumulation trend of US soybean oil would prevent it from fully reflecting the tight fundamental expectation. It might even seek exports in the fourth quarter. In this case, the price of US soybean oil would mainly fluctuate with crude oil, diesel crack spread, and US soybean prices and was still in a downward channel. The 50 cents/pound level might not have actual support. - The overall soybean sowing progress in Brazil was favorable. The rainfall in mid - and late October was beneficial to the early growth of the soybeans sown in September. The production prospect of Brazil's new season soybeans was positive, and a high - yield pattern was taking shape. The global soybean supply in the 2025/2026 season remained abundant, which restricted the upward driving force of the international soybean - related market. - In the domestic market, there was almost no gap in soybean arrivals until January. The export demand might keep domestic soybean oil inventory decreasing monthly until March next year. Therefore, among oil and fat varieties, soybean oil was mainly recommended for long - term allocation, especially when palm oil still had回调 pressure. However, it did not have an independent upward driving force. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result could be reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports [4][5] Overall View - Malaysia's inventory is likely to reach an inflection point in October and will experience rapid inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, but Indonesia's inventory is also likely to bottom out in August. By the end of the year, it is difficult to achieve a significant reduction in the origin's inventory, which is expected to increase to the level at the end of 2023. There is no strong upward driving force from the origin, and it is not excluded that the price will continue to decline to the 8,200 - 8,400 range. The upward opening of the palm oil price space can only be expected from the implementation of B50 and unexpected production in the fourth quarter. When palm oil still has回调 pressure, soybean oil is mainly recommended for long - term allocation, but it does not have an independent upward driving force. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result can be reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports [6] Disk Basic Market Data Price and Volume | Variety | Unit | Opening Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | Yuan/ton | 9,110 | 9,150 | 8,720 | 8,764 | - 4.01% | 2,620,557 | - 21,105 | 392,995 | 43,304 | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | Yuan/ton | 8,192 | 8,258 | 8,020 | 8,128 | - 0.71% | 2,641,662 | 51,471 | 493,021 | - 4,567 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | Yuan/ton | 9,767 | 9,785 | 9,379 | 9,422 | - 3.12% | 2,345,011 | 78,228 | 220,738 | - 30,322 | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | Ringgit/ton | 4,435 | 4,446 | 4,198 | 4,205 | - 4.86% | - | - | - | - | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | Cents/pound | 50.62 | 50.94 | 48.56 | 48.62 | - 3.32% | - | - | - | - | Spread | Spread Type | Unit | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Soybean 01 Spread | Yuan/ton | 1,294 | 1,567 | - 17.42% | | Soybean - Palm 01 Spread | Yuan/ton | 3636 | - 928 | 31.47% | | Palm Oil 1 - 5 Spread | Yuan/ton | - 50 | 18 | - 377.78% | | Soybean Oil 1 - 5 Spread | Yuan/ton | 170 | 178 | - 4.49% | | Rapeseed Oil 1 - 5 Spread | Yuan/ton | 2818 | 384 | - 26.82% | Warehouse Receipts | Variety | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil | Lots | 0 | 600 | - 600 | | Soybean Oil | Lots | 27,644 | 27,344 | 300 | | Rapeseed Oil | Lots | 7,540 | 7,540 | 0 | [8]