分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 证券代码：839979 豆油 油脂早报 2025-08-18投资咨询部 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：菜籽油现货9900，基差143，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：7月4日菜籽油商业库存65万吨，前值63万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+3.2%。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：菜籽油主力空增。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加 菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓和宏观层面影 响 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term but has limited upside potential, facing resistance at the [9200] price level for the 2509 contract. The tight supply situation in Southeast Asia has eased quickly with the arrival of the production season, but high initial yields have raised concerns about over - production. The Indonesian B40 policy has been effective, and domestic near - term arrivals are increasing, while far - term purchases are limited. Overall, the inventory build - up in Southeast Asia is slow, and the palm oil 2509 and 2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly. [3][4] - Soybean oil is also likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the [8500] price level for the y2509 contract. South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken after the third quarter, and the premium has an upward trend. The good condition of US soybeans, the 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff agreement, and the pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports put pressure on CBOT soybeans. Domestically, near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations, and the supply in the fourth quarter is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. [3] - Rapeseed oil is likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the 9800 price level for the O1509 contract. The global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, providing short - term support for international rapeseed prices. The expected recovery of global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season may suppress the price. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but rapeseed purchases after July have decreased year - on - year, and far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. Overall, rapeseed oil shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. [3] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, the domestic three - major oil indices continued to diverge. Soybean oil continued to rise, while palm oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated widely. As of August 8, the closing price of the 2509 soybean oil contract was 8880 yuan/ton, the 2509 palm oil contract was 8888 yuan/ton, and the 01509 rapeseed oil contract was 9571 yuan/ton. [94] - The BMD crude palm oil futures prices in Malaysia fluctuated widely this week, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. CBOT soybeans fluctuated sideways, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. [14][34] Supply and Demand Analysis Palm Oil - In Malaysia, different institutions' data show that palm oil exports in July decreased compared to June, while production increased. For example, ITS data shows a 6.7% decrease in exports, and SPPOM data shows a 7.07% increase in production. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly, and inventory decreased. The reference price and export tax of Indonesian crude palm oil in August have been raised. [17][18] - India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oils in May, which led to an increase in imports in June - July. However, the palm oil import volume in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons. [29] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated the 2024/25 South American soybean production. Brazil is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, and Argentina is expected to be 49.9 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to rise seasonally. [69] - As of August 3, the US soybean's flowering rate, pod - setting rate, and good - to - excellent rate are relatively good, and the drought - affected area is about 3%. The old - crop US soybean exports are basically completed, and the 24/25 annual export is expected to be 50.3 million tons. [40] - Domestically, the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations. [96] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply has tightened marginally, with significant impacts in Canada and the EU. The USDA expects a recovery in production in the 2025/26 season, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will rise slightly to 10.64%. [77] - Canada's Statistics Bureau predicts a decline in the rapeseed planting area in 2025, and the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture estimates a 200,000 - ton reduction in the 2025/26 rapeseed production. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. [77][82] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - Traders with palm oil or soybean oil inventory should seek to sell at high prices, while those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices to build inventory. Oil - using enterprises should pay attention to price changes when purchasing raw materials. [5][7] - For rapeseed oil, traders with inventory should also seek to sell at high prices, and those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices. Oil - using enterprises need to purchase raw materials and are worried about price increases. [7] Cost - Profit and Inventory - The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report, showing certain fluctuations. [111][113][118] - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 234,300 tons. Among them, soybean and rapeseed oil inventories increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly. [120][121][122] CFTC Positions and Warehouse Receipts - CBOT soybean and soybean oil non - commercial net long positions and their proportions are presented, showing certain trends. - The warehouse receipt volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil as of August 7, 2025, are provided. [136][143][145]

Report Date - The report is dated August 10, 2025 [1] Last Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - Domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but without strong supply themes, the price was hard to rise further and mainly fluctuated at a high level, waiting for the inventory - reduction inflection point in the producing areas. The palm oil 09 contract rose 0.79% last week [2] Soybean Oil - A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders ignited trading enthusiasm, the soybean - palm oil price spread narrowed significantly, and soybean oil showed signs of a catch - up rise. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.52% last week [2] This Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - Malaysia's inventory peak this year has been gradually digested by the market since April. There is no new significant negative factor in the palm oil fundamentals, and the market has started to trade the inventory - reduction trend in the second half of the year. Domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high [3] - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to be less than 180 tons, and the export volume in the first 25 days was poor, estimated to be less than 140 tons. With the continuous driving effect of European biodiesel, the demand in the producing areas is expected to remain high. Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory in July, but conservatively estimated not to exceed 2.2 million tons [3] - In Indonesia, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia remains high, and the prices of various palm oil products and bunches in the Indonesian producing areas are high. The sentiment of traders reflected in the CPO export premium is relatively positive, and palm oil is quite resistant to price drops at present [3] - Rumors of Indonesia's B50 policy and export ban are considered to have a low correlation with the recent price increase of palm oil. The production recovery in Indonesia may fall short of expectations again under the strong demand for European biodiesel raw materials, and the inventory will hover between 1.5 and 3 million tons this year [3] - In the consumer areas, except for sunflower oil, the import profit of crude palm oil has been higher than that of crude soybean oil. Channel inventory reconstruction is underway. As long as the monthly import volume can be maintained above 800,000 tons, it is difficult for Malaysia's palm oil inventory to exceed 2.3 million tons [3] - The market has great differences in Malaysia's palm oil production this year. If Malaysia and Indonesia maintain good yields in August as in the same period last year and from April to May this year, there will be greater inventory - accumulation pressure from August to September. If Malaysia's palm oil inventory cannot exceed 2.3 million tons, the market may have gradually digested this year's inventory peak [3] - August is the last window for the release of palm oil supply pressure. If no effective price pressure is formed during this period, it will be difficult for significant negative supply - side factors to appear in the later oil market. If inventory accumulates more than expected from August to September, combined with the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and potential downward pressure on the crude oil side, palm oil may not reflect potential positive factors in the fourth quarter prematurely and may still have room for correction. However, be vigilant about the positive sentiment caused by earlier - than - expected inventory reduction due to lower - than - expected production from August to September [3][4] - The soybean - palm oil price spread does not have the driving force to return to parity this year. Continuously pay attention to opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [4] Soybean Oil - In mid - to - late July, multiple major producing areas in the US Midwest received good rainfall, which is conducive to the improvement of yield expectations. Before the release of the USDA August report, if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation. Only positive news from Sino - US trade negotiations can drive the rebound of US soybeans [4] - The weak domestic situation of soybean oil has been reversed by a large number of recent export orders. Oil mills' crushing operations are maintained at a very high level. Although domestic apparent demand and提货 are poor, oil mills actively export after finding export trade profits. If this trend continues, it is expected to drive the Chinese soybean - palm oil price spread closer to the international spread [4] - If US soybeans for the October shipment have not been actually purchased, there is still some upward space for the monthly spread and Brazilian premiums, and the prices of oil tanks may be underestimated, which may benefit soybean oil [4] - After the high - production period of palm oil in the third - quarter end, if Sino - US trade issues lead to a soybean import gap, there may be potential upward themes for Brazilian premiums, and there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [4] Overall View - As the last window for the release of palm oil supply pressure, if the production increase in August fails to form effective price pressure, it will be difficult for significant negative supply - side factors to appear later. Be vigilant about the positive sentiment caused by earlier - than - expected inventory reduction due to lower - than - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia from July to August [5] - The soybean - palm oil price spread does not have the driving force to return to parity this year. Continuously pay attention to opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [5] - The current driving factors for soybean oil are US soybean weather, the sustainability of soybean oil exports, and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. After the high - production period of palm oil in the third - quarter end, if Sino - US trade issues lead to a soybean import gap, there may be potential upward themes for Brazilian premiums, and there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil. Currently, the soybean sector lacks its own effective driving force and mainly follows the trend of the oil sector, and the soybean - palm oil price spread fluctuates in a range with a slightly upward trend [5] Disk Basic Market Data Price and Volume Data - Palm oil main contract: opened at 8,918 yuan/ton, reached a high of 9,076 yuan/ton, a low of 8,746 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The trading volume was 2,637,135 lots, a decrease of 70,357 lots, and the open interest was 305,714 lots, a decrease of 88,427 lots [7] - Soybean oil main contract: opened at 8,274 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,486 yuan/ton, a low of 8,210 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,388 yuan/ton, up 1.52%. The trading volume was 2,707,492 lots, an increase of 5,182 lots, and the open interest was 642,331 lots, an increase of 142,575 lots [7] - Rapeseed oil main contract: opened at 9,516 yuan/ton, reached a high of 9,672 yuan/ton, a low of 9,442 yuan/ton, and closed at 9,574 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The trading volume was 3,475,013 lots, a decrease of 133,717 lots, and the open interest was 140,480 lots, a decrease of 48,633 lots [7] - Malaysian palm oil main contract: opened at 4,180 ringgit/ton, reached a high of 4,304 ringgit/ton, a low of 4,159 ringgit/ton, and closed at 4,254 ringgit/ton, up 0.21% [7] - CBOT soybean oil main contract: opened at 53.89 cents/pound, reached a high of 54.55 cents/pound, a low of 52.29 cents/pound, and closed at 52.43 cents/pound, down 2.73% [7] Spread Data - Rapeseed - soybean 09 spread: closed at 1,174 yuan/ton this week, down 6.08% from last week [7] - Soybean - palm 09 spread: closed at - 580 yuan/ton this week, up 8.81% from last week [7] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: remained unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton [7] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: closed at 12 yuan/ton this week, down 75.00% from last week [7] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: closed at 13 yuan/ton this week, down 77.59% from last week [7] Warehouse Receipt Data - Palm oil warehouse receipts: remained unchanged at 570 lots [7] - Soybean oil warehouse receipts: increased by 17,370 lots to 20,370 lots [7] - Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts: remained unchanged at 3,487 lots [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The slowdown of Malaysia's palm oil export data, combined with overseas institutions raising the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America being realized, increased soybean supply pressure, and favorable weather in the US soybean producing areas all put pressure on the oil market [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,838.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -72 yuan and a change rate of -0.81% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,250.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -24.00 yuan and a change rate of -0.29% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,542.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +18.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.19% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,800.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -130.00 yuan and a change rate of -1.46%. The spot basis was P09 + -38.00, with a month-on-month change of -58.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,370.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +20.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.24%. The spot basis was Y09 + 120.00, with a month-on-month change of +44.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,630.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +20.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.21%. The spot basis was OI09 + 88.00, with a month-on-month change of +2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Consultation Palm Oil - According to SGS, the estimated palm oil export volume from Malaysia from July 1 - 31 was 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease compared to the same period last month - Reuters survey showed that the estimated palm oil inventory in Malaysia in July 2025 was 2.25 million tons, an 10.8% increase from June; the estimated production was 1.83 million tons, an 8% increase from June; the estimated export volume was 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% increase from June [2] Soybean - StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% year-on-year increase - Celeres estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 177.2 million tons (previous season: 172.8 million tons) and the export volume would be 110 million tons (previous season: 106 million tons) [2] Other - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 574 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 564 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1,155 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1,129 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1,035 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,015 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 445 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 439 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 468 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotation: Mexico Gulf (September shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 9 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; US West Coast (September shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, a decrease of 9 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 288 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market Situation**: The overall situation of the rapeseed - related market is complex, with various factors influencing the prices of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal. The market is affected by international trade, weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and related policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to high oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory accumulation, expected decline in pig存栏, and policies for reducing soybean meal substitution. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand provide some support. The market is volatile and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is constrained by the off - season of consumption, high inventory in oil mills, and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply. But the reduction in oil - mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease the supply pressure. The market is in an overall volatile state with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil (active contract) were 9542 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), rapeseed meal (active contract) were 2678 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), ICE rapeseed (active) were 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton (down 12.1 Canadian dollars), and rapeseed (active contract) were 5122 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 month spread of rapeseed oil was 70 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal was 246 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 24449 lots (up 6537 lots) and for rapeseed meal were 20192 lots (up 3504 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3487 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal was 1200 (unchanged) [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed was 4855.38 yuan/ton (down 69.12 yuan). The oil - meal ratio was 3.64 (up 0.05) [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 76 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 78 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan) [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8420 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8820 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), and the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 15 tons (up 4 tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 tons (down 5 tons), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 16.52% (up 1.59%) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.65 tons (up 1.1 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 tons (up 0.8 tons); the East China rapeseed oil inventory was 55.5 tons (down 0.77 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 33.41 tons (down 1.72 tons); the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5.7 tons (up 0.15 tons), and the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 26.1 tons (down 0.9 tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 3.27 tons (up 0.36 tons), and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 3.43 tons (up 1.11 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.58% (down 2.02%), and that of put options was 22.57% (down 2.04%); for rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 13.16% (down 2.15%) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 19.06% (up 0.1%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 17.35% (up 0.08%); for rapeseed oil, the 20 - day historical volatility was 11.5% (down 0.16%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 12.39% (down 0.02%) [2]. Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Friday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 1.9% to a two - week low due to heavy selling by speculative funds [2]. - **Soybean Conditions**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the previous week was 68%, and the same period last year was 67% [2]. Key Points to Watch - **Data**: The rapeseed oil - mill operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in each region reported by Myagric on Monday [2]. - **Trade Disputes**: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the United States [2].

Core Viewpoint - This week, canola oil futures experienced fluctuations and closed higher, influenced by various market factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Canola oil futures closed at 9524 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [1] - The market is currently in a "weather-dominated" phase for canola seed growth, with recent favorable rainfall in Canada alleviating some market pressure [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The potential restoration of canola seed trade between China and Australia may add future supply pressure [1] - High-frequency data indicates an increase in palm oil production in July, but a decline in exports, which is expected to continue to build inventory and restrain palm oil prices [1] - Indonesia's significant export increase and low inventory levels, along with positive news regarding biodiesel from the US and Indonesia, are supportive for the oilseed market [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - The domestic market is currently in an off-season for oil consumption, leading to a relaxed supply of vegetable oils and high inventory pressure for canola oil mills [1] - A decrease in operating rates at oil mills has reduced production pressure for canola oil, while fewer canola seed purchases in the third quarter have lowered supply-side pressures [1] Group 4: Trading Strategy - The market strategy suggests a focus on short-term participation due to the current market conditions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. The market is trading the de - stocking scenario in the second half of the year. Malaysia is expected to continue the inventory accumulation trend in July, but it is conservatively estimated not to exceed 2.2 million tons. The B50 rumor in Indonesia has a low correlation with the price increase. The international oil market may see a systematic upward trend due to reduced export supply, and palm oil is sensitive to this. The bean - palm spread is unlikely to return to par this year, and opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels should be continuously monitored [2][3]. - Soybean oil: The continuous good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation, and if this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Without a strong supply theme, the high price needs strong downstream demand to support it. With weak demand from India, the price at the high level was difficult to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.29% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders ignited the trading enthusiasm. The bean - palm spread narrowed significantly, and soybean oil showed signs of a catch - up rise. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.6% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic 3.2.1 Palm oil - Fundamental analysis: After the slight increase in inventory in the MPOB June report, the negative impact was digested, and the price rebounded. It is estimated that the production in July will still be difficult to reach 1.8 million tons, and the export volume in the first 25 days was poor, estimated to be less than 1.4 million tons. The demand in the producing areas is expected to remain high, and Malaysia will continue the inventory accumulation trend, but not exceed 2.2 million tons. In Indonesia, the price of various palm oils is high, and the market is quite resistant to price drops. The B50 rumor has a low correlation with the price increase. The production recovery may fall short of expectations, and the inventory will remain below 3 million tons throughout the year. The US biodiesel policy will lead to a reduction in the supply of US soybean oil in the international market, which will drive up the international oil market, and palm oil may be affected [2]. - Market sentiment and trading opportunities: The market has different views on the palm oil production in Malaysia this year. If the production in July - August maintains a good yield per unit, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure in August - September. If the inventory in Malaysia does not exceed 2.3 million tons, the market may have digested the high - point inventory. If the inventory accumulation in August - September exceeds expectations, palm oil may still have room for correction, but attention should be paid to the potential positive sentiment caused by lower - than - expected production in July - August [2][3]. - Sales area analysis: Except for sunflower oil, the import profit of crude palm oil is higher than that of crude soybean oil. The reconstruction of channel inventory is in progress. As long as the monthly import volume can be maintained above 800,000 tons, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil is difficult to exceed 2.3 million tons. The current fundamentals in the producing areas are not sufficient to stimulate China to open commercial profits, and the bean - palm spread is difficult to return to par [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean oil - International situation: Good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. Only positive news from Sino - US trade negotiations can drive up the price of US soybeans [4]. - Domestic situation: The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation. Although the domestic apparent demand for pick - up is poor, oil mills are actively exporting. If this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one. If the purchase of US soybeans for the October shipment has not been made, there is potential for the spread between months and the Brazilian premium to rise, and soybean oil may benefit [4]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Futures prices: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,910 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,274 yuan/ton, up 1.6%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,524 yuan/ton, up 0.71%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,245 ringgit/ton, down 0.72%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 53.90 cents/pound, down 3.61% [8]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 2,707,492 lots, a decrease of 767,521 lots; the open interest was 394,141 lots, a decrease of 62,307 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 3,475,013 lots, a decrease of 47,548 lots; the open interest was 499,756 lots, a decrease of 4,882 lots [8]. - Spreads: The rapeseed - soybean 09 spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, down 4.8%; the bean - palm 09 spread was 363 yuan/ton, up 19.7%. The palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 350%; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 48 yuan/ton, up 20%; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 58 yuan/ton, up 3.57% [8]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 570 lots, an increase of 570 lots; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 3,000 lots, a decrease of 18,495 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487 lots, with no change [8]. 3.4 Oil Fundamental Information - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to recover in July, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter, and the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia remains high [10][13]. - Export and import: ITS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1.289727 million tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil in 2025 decreased by 330,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils decreased by 640,000 tons [13][15]. - Other indicators: The POGO spread rebounded significantly, the import profit of Indian palm oil started to improve, and the basis of palm oil (South China) for 09 was - 20, while the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) rebounded [11][13][15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the protein meal market, US soybean is growing well with a higher - than - expected good rate, leading to a continuous decline in US soybean futures prices. Concerns about domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter and the strengthening of rapeseed meal prices support domestic protein meal prices [3]. - In the oil market, Malaysian palm oil production increased in July 2025, but export volume decreased. The consensus between China and the US on tariff issues has boosted the overall strength of the oil sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 8240, 8982, and 9621 respectively. Their price changes were 14, 12, and 129, with price change rates of 0.17%, 0.13%, and - 3.15% respectively. For protein meals, the closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal were 3010 and 2730, with price changes of 27 and 75 and price change rates of 0.91% and 2.82% respectively. The closing price of peanuts was 8844, with a price change of 26 and a price change rate of 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: For example, the current value of Y9 - 1 spread is 52 (previous value: 38), P9 - 1 is - 4 (previous value: 2), and so on. The current M/RM09 ratio is 1.10 (previous value: 1.12) [2]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4244 (Ringgit/ton), 996 (cents/bu), 56 (cents/lb), and 274 (dollars/ton) respectively. Their price changes were 14, - 12, - 1, and - 2, with price change rates of 0.33%, - 1.21%, - 1.09%, and - 0.72% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various oils and meals have different changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8410, with a price change rate of 0.72%, and the spot price of Nantong soybean meal is 2890, with a price change rate of 0.70% [2]. - **Spot Basis**: Spot basis values vary, such as 170 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and - 120 for Nantong soybean meal [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: The current value of the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 670 (same as the previous value), and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1350 (previous value: 1310) [2]. Import and Crush Profit - The current import and crush profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 355, - 197, etc. respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous values [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 13,709, 0, and 3,487 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2]. Industry Information - According to the Ministry of Commerce, China and the US have formed Geneva Consensus and London Framework in the economic and trade field, and their teams have held economic and trade talks in Stockholm [3]. - Brazil's National Supply Company predicts that the grain output in the 2024 - 2025 agricultural cycle will reach 3.396 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. From January to June this year, Brazil exported soybeans worth 1.9 billion dollars to China, accounting for 74.6% of the total soybean export value [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. [7] Summary by Category Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8420, with a basis of 180, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400. [3] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9050, with a basis of 68, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [5] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100. [5] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9700, with a basis of 79, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [6] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 9800. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production decline season. [7] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [7] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Items include import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned. [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests caution as the oils and fats market may experience a correction after the cooling of macro - sentiment, and recommends a wait - and - see approach [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Spot Price Information - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Tianjin was 9070, down 50 from July 28; in Zhangjiagang it was 9020, down 50; and in Huangpu it was 8920, down 50 [1]. - **Grade I Soybean Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Tianjin was 8270, up 20 from July 28; in Zhangjiagang it was 8370, up 20; and in Huangpu it was 8320, up 20 [1]. - **Grade IV Rapeseed Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Zhangjiagang was 9590, up 50 from July 28; in Wuhan it was 9610, up 50; and in Chengdu it was 9820, up 50 [1]. Futures Data - **Contract Spreads**: On July 29, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 744, up 82 from July 28; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1266, down 20 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On July 29, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 570, unchanged; soybean oil warehouse receipts were 21113, down 382; and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487, unchanged [1]. Palm Oil Supply and Demand Information - **Indonesia**: In May, due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. Exports reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase. May's crude palm oil production was 4.17 million tons, lower than April but a 7.2% increase from last year [2]. - **Malaysia**: From July 1 - 20, the yield per unit area increased 7.03% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased 0.16% month - on - month, and production increased 6.19% month - on - month. Export data from different institutions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous month [2]. - **India**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased 61% month - on - month to 953,000 tons, the highest in 11 months [2]. Other Information - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. The flowering rate was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 26% [2]. - **Australian Rapeseed**: Australian rapeseed is expected to enter the domestic market, which will alleviate the shortage of rapeseed imports caused by the tense China - Canada relationship [2].