油脂市场
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建信期货油脂日报-20260226
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-26 01:12
行业 油脂 日期 2026 年 2 月 26 日 研究员:余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 研究员:林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 研究员:王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油报价:5-6 月三菜 05+300、一菜 05+500。华东市场豆油基差价格: 一豆:现货:Y05+380;一口 ...
建信期货油脂日报-20260205
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 01:31
日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 研究员:余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 研究员:林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 研究员:王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 行业 油脂 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 华东三级菜油:4-5 月 05+500,2-3 月:OI2605+620,3-4 月: OI2605+580。 华东市场豆油基差价格:一豆:现货:Y05+380;一口价 8510 元/吨 ...
油脂2月报-20260130
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 07:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is a need for a correction in the oil and fat market due to profit - taking near the holiday. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [3][5][68] - The Malaysian palm oil may experience production cuts and inventory reduction in January, but the inventory may remain at a relatively high level due to the high base. The combined inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not very loose. [4][14][68] - There are potential positive factors for soybean oil, such as following the rise of palm oil and the positive outlook for US biodiesel, but there is no prominent core contradiction. The supply pressure may be postponed. [4][40][68] - Rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory slightly in the short - term. The price has support below and is still affected by policy disturbances. [4][43][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the oil and fat market rebounded after reaching the bottom and fluctuated upward overall. Palm oil rose by about 7.8%, soybean oil by about 5.7%, and rapeseed oil by about 2.8% due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. The OI - Y 05 and OI - P 05 spreads continued to narrow. [3][10] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Malaysian palm oil may cut production and reduce inventory in January, but the inventory may remain high. There are potential positive factors for soybean oil, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction with limited downward space. [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Consider shorting lightly at high levels or waiting for a correction to go long. The market will maintain a wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage for Y59 at high levels. - Options: Stay on the sidelines. [5] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in January, the oil and fat market fluctuated upward. Palm oil was pushed up by factors such as the market's view that the negative news was exhausted and Indonesia's plan to raise the Levy tax in March. The expectation of US biodiesel also boosted the market. Rapeseed oil was affected by Sino - Canadian trade relations. [10] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil in January May Cut Production and Reduce Inventory, and Indonesia Seizes Illegal Plantations - In December, Malaysian palm oil inventory unexpectedly increased to 3.05 million tons. In January, production is expected to decrease to about 1.57 million tons, and inventory may reduce to around 2.85 million tons but remain at a relatively high historical level. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly. Indonesia has seized illegal plantations, which may affect production in the short - term. The price of Indonesian palm oil is rising, and the export tax will be increased in March. [13][14][21] 3.2.3 India Has Soybean Oil Wash - Sales, and Palm Oil Imports May Increase - In December, India's edible oil imports decreased compared with the same period last year. The inventory of palm oil in ports decreased slightly, while that of soybean oil and sunflower oil increased. Currently, there is no import profit for the three major edible oils in India. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is rising, and palm oil's cost - effectiveness is emerging. It is expected that India will import about 680,000 tons of palm oil in January. [29][30] 3.2.4 Sino - Canadian Rapeseed Trade Disturbances Still Exist, and Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory Continues to Decline - Palm oil inventory is slightly decreasing, and the import profit is negative. It is expected to continue to decline slightly. Soybean oil inventory is also decreasing slightly, and there are potential positive factors. Rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, and it is affected by policy. [39][40][43] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Palm oil may need a correction and maintains a wide - range oscillation. Soybean oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and Y35 reverse arbitrage can be considered at high levels. Rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction with limited downward space and is affected by policy. [68]
菜籽类市场周报:沿海油厂维持停机,支撑菜油粕基差-20251231
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 08:57
「2025.12.31」 瑞达期货研究院 菜籽类市场周报 沿海油厂维持停机 支撑菜油粕基差 研究员:许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话:0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油: 3 Ø 行情回顾:本周菜油期货小幅收涨,05合约收盘价9087元/吨,较前一周+41元/吨。 Ø 行情展望:加拿大农业及农业食品部(AAFC)在17日报告中,将加拿大2025/26年度油菜籽期末 库存预估上调45万吨,至295万吨,高于上年度的159.7万吨,加菜籽供需格局明显好转,继续牵 制其市场价格。其它方面,高频数据显示,前25日马棕产量下滑且出口数据改善,且近期马来西 亚预期将有更大范围的降雨,强化马棕减产预期,支撑马棕市场价格。国内方面,现阶段油厂继 续处于停机状态,菜油也维持去库模式,对其价格形成支撑。并且受大豆通关政策可能收紧的消 息影响,提振国内油脂市场。不过,随着澳大利亚菜籽陆续到港后期进 ...
油脂数据日报-20251230
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 07:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high-frequency data in Malaysia has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. It is expected that the market will continue to decline after a short-term rebound, waiting for the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders' purchases and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and avoid chasing high prices. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24-degree Palm Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8,650, 8,590, and 8,490 respectively, down 20 from December 26, 2025. The spot basis of palm oil futures in South China was 5,000, 4,000, and 3,000 [1] - **First-grade Soybean Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8,250, 8,390, and 8,400 respectively compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - **Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9,880, 9,930, and 10,130 respectively, up 100 from December 26, 2025. The spot basis of soybean oil futures in North China was 2,000, 1,500, and 1,000 [1] Futures Data - **Soybean-Palm Oil Main Contract Spread**: On December 29, 2025, it was -694, up 38 from December 26, 2025 [1] - **Rapeseed-Soybean Main Contract Spread**: On December 29, 2025, it was 1,222, up 12 from December 26, 2025 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil remained unchanged at 260, 28,264, and 3,456 respectively from December 26 to 29, 2025 [1] Industry News - **Indonesia**: On December 19, 2025, the Indonesian Energy Minister stated that the country had launched the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months, and the mandatory use policy is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - **Malaysia**: MPOC expects the crude palm oil price to fluctuate between 3,800 and 4,100 ringgit per ton in January next year. According to MPOA, from December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, from December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; from December 1 - 20, exports increased by 2.4%; from December 1 - 15, exports decreased by 15.9%. According to AmSpec, from December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Brazil**: ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons [2] - **USA**: The USDA announced that private exporters reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - **India**: According to SEA data, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% to 632,341 tons compared to October. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% to 370,661 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% to 142,953 tons, reaching a two - year low. The total edible oil imports in November decreased by 13.3% to 1.15 million tons, a seven - month low. In November, India imported 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China, a record high [2]
利空因素叠加,油脂持续承压
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 02:41
油脂日报 | 2025-12-18 利空因素叠加,油脂持续承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8342.00元/吨,环比变化-68元,幅度-0.81%;昨日收盘豆油2605合约7822.00 元/吨,环比变化-50.00元,幅度-0.64%;昨日收盘菜油2605合约8950.00元/吨,环比变化-113.00元,幅度-1.25%。 现货方面,广东地区棕榈油现货价8390.00元/吨,环比变化-40.00元,幅度-0.47%,现货基差P05+48.00,环比变化 +28.00元;天津地区一级豆油现货价格8250.00元/吨,环比变化-30.00元/吨,幅度-0.36%,现货基差Y05+428.00, 环比变化+20.00元;江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9420.00元/吨,环比变化-140.00元,幅度-1.46%,现货基差 OI05+470.00,环比变化-27.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总:美国农业部(USDA)公布数据,民间出口商报告对中国出口销售19.8万吨大豆,对墨西哥出 口销售177055吨玉米,对未知目的地出口销售12.5万吨大豆,均于2025/2026年度交货。美国大豆、玉米 ...
供应端持续宽松,油脂承压震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 02:58
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply side of oils and fats remains loose, and the prices are under pressure and fluctuating. The recent improvement of precipitation in Brazil, the good sowing progress in the producing areas, and the shortening of the La Nina impact window have led to good soybean supply expectations, which put pressure on the overall oils and fats market. Attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming MPOB monthly report and USDA monthly report [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,706.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.73% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,230.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.00 yuan or 0.44%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,502.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116.00 yuan or 1.21% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.57%, and the spot basis was P05 + -36.00, a decrease of 14.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.00 yuan/ton or 0.47%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 170.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120.00 yuan or 1.22%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 248.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information Agricultural Product Production and Supply - As of last Thursday, the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has reached 94% of the expected area. The total corn production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 135.3 million tons, compared with 141.1 million tons in the previous season [2] - The natural rubber market in Malaysia is expected to be mixed this week due to supply concerns caused by heavy rainfall. The ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 14.89 million tons, while the demand is expected to grow by 0.8% to 15.57 million tons [2] Oilseed Processing and Import - In November, the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in China was 9.01 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons month - on - month, 830,000 tons year - on - year, and 1.2 million tons more than the average of the same period in the past three years. In December, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China may decline slightly, but the current operating rate of oil mills remains high, and the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in the whole month is expected to be about 8.6 million tons, an increase of about 400,000 tons year - on - year and about 300,000 tons more than the average of the same period in the past three years [2] Import Price Changes - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) increased by 12 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) increased by 10 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) decreased by 15 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) decreased by 15 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (January shipment) decreased by 3 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (March shipment) decreased by 4 US dollars/ton [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (January shipment) decreased by 5 US dollars/ton, the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (January shipment) decreased by 9 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (January shipment) increased by 5 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes also changed, with the Mexican Gulf (January shipment) increasing by 2 cents/bushel, the US West Coast (January shipment) decreasing by 10 cents/bushel, and the Brazilian port (January shipment) increasing by 30 cents/bushel [2]
大越期货油脂早报-20251202
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 02:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,472, with a basis of 188, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,690, with a basis of 38, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. The supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,145, with a basis of 375, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [4]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].
油脂数据日报-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 06:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Malay palm oil has increasing production and decreasing exports, facing significant short - term pressure, and should be treated bearishly [2] - Rapeseed oil is expected to change the supply shortage situation due to the supply expectations of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and there may be a catch - up decline compared to last year's trend [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil (2025/11/21)**: Tianjin price is 8,660 (down 200 from 2025/11/20), Zhangjiagang is 8,540 (down 200), Huangpu is 8,470 (down 200) [1] - **First - grade soybean oil (2025/11/21)**: Tianjin price is 8,330 (down 100 from 2025/11/20), Zhangjiagang is 8,470 (down 100), Huangpu is 8,520 (down 100) [1] - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil (2025/11/21)**: Zhangjiagang price is 10,170 (up 100 from 2025/11/20), Wuhan is 10,220 (up 100), Chengdu is 10,450 (up 100) [1] 3.2 Futures Data - **Bean - palm main contract spread (2025/11/21)**: - 360, up 62 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Rapeseed - bean main contract spread (2025/11/21)**: 1,626, up 71 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 50, down 450 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 24,625, down 2 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 4,033, down 98 from 2025/11/20 [1] 3.3 Production and Export - **Malaysian palm oil production**: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 20, the yield per unit area increased by 10.32% compared to the same period last month [1] - **Malaysian palm oil export**: According to ITS, from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 15, decreased by 15.5%; from November 1 - 10, decreased by 12.8%. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 15, decreased by 10%; from November 1 - 10, decreased by 10% [1] 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic palm oil**: As of November 14, the national commercial inventory was 65.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [1] - **Domestic soybean oil**: As of November 14, the national commercial inventory was 114.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - **Rapeseed oil import**: The import volume in November is expected to be 22.6 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2] 3.5 US Soybean Forecast - The 2025/26 US soybean production forecast is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit area is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 0.304 billion bushels [1] - The 2025/26 US soybean export forecast is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels from the September forecast, mainly affected by the enhanced export competitiveness of South American soybeans and the slowdown of international procurement rhythm [1]
市场悲观,油脂冲高回落
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 03:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the prices of vegetable oil futures rose first and then fell. The uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy and the decrease in palm - oil exports in Malaysia from November so far led to the decline of the international vegetable oil market, which in turn drove the overall decline of domestic vegetable oil futures prices. - For soybean oil, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy dampens market confidence. Domestic oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with sufficient supply, and the inventory is expected to remain high. - For rapeseed oil, the upcoming arrival of Australian rapeseeds weakens the market's concern about future supply. - For palm oil, both the international and domestic markets are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals lack positive support. It is expected that vegetable oil prices will be weak in the near future. [9][31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - This week, the soybean oil Y2601 contract fell 0.80% to close at 8,190 yuan/ton, the palm oil P2601 contract fell 1.09% to close at 8,550 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil OI2601 contract fell 1.08% to close at 9,816 yuan/ton. [5][30] 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm - oil exports from November 1 - 20 were 828,680 tons, a 14.1% decrease from the same period last month. According to shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia's palm - oil exports from November 1 - 20 are expected to be 471,222 tons, a 40.6% decrease from the same period last month. Malaysia's palm oil fell 1.38%. [7][30] - **Soybean Oil**: The International Grains Council lowered the global soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 1.6 million tons to 426.4 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous year, but still much higher than the recent average. Argentina's soybean production forecast was lowered to 47.8 million tons, China's to 20.9 million tons, and India's to 13.3 million tons. US soybeans rose 0.36% this week. [7][30] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [10] - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [11] - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [13] 3.4 Other Data - As of November 19, 2025, the national soybean - oil inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 1.373 million tons, and the national commercial palm - oil inventory increased by 6.60 million tons to 0.689 million tons. [17] - As of November 20, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 8,170,220 tons. [19] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [21] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 104 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [22] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 344 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [24]