Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 13, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73% to 4029.50, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to 13476.52, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.55% to 3201.75. The trading volume reached 2042 billion yuan, up 96.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4702.07, up 56.17 [2]. - Futures market: - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal weighted index closed at 1230.3 yuan, down 6.8; the coke weighted index closed at 1716.4, down 7.0 [2][3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated upward during the day and consolidated slightly higher at night [4]. - Rubber: Affected by the increase in Southeast Asian spot prices, the Shanghai Rubber futures oscillated higher during the day and consolidated slightly higher at night [4]. - Palm oil: The palm oil futures closed up slightly, with the main contract P2601 closing at 8752, up 0.09% [6]. - Shanghai Copper: The main - contract of Shanghai Copper rose 0.82% to 87550 yuan/ton [6]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13475 yuan/ton at night, and the inventory increased by 296 lots [6]. - Logs: The 2601 contract opened at 776.5, closed at 783.5, and decreased 212 lots in positions [6]. - Iron ore: The 2601 main contract of iron ore closed up 0.26% at 772.5 yuan [7]. - Asphalt: The 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 1.05% at 3029 yuan [7]. - Steel: rb2601 closed at 3046 yuan/ton, hc2601 closed at 3254 yuan/ton [9]. - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 2840 yuan/ton [9]. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2601 closed at 22050 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Supply - demand Analysis - Coking coal and coke: - Coke: The third - round increase in spot procurement prices was implemented. Supply decreased due to environmental protection and high coking coal prices; demand weakened as steel mills increased production cuts [4]. - Coking coal: Supply was slightly tight due to mine inspections, but downstream acceptance of high - priced goods decreased, and auction prices dropped [4]. - Sugar: The 2024/25 annual sugar import volume was adjusted down by 380,000 tons to 4.62 million tons. The 2025/26 production was predicted to be 11.7 million tons, up 500,000 tons from the previous month; consumption was predicted to be 15.7 million tons, down 200,000 tons [4]. - Rubber: In October, the national passenger car retail volume was 2.242 million, down 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month [4][6]. - Palm oil: Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 due to the implementation of B50 biodiesel [6]. - Steel: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.3438 million tons, down 223,600 tons (2.6%) week - on - week; the total inventory was 14.7735 million tons, down 262,200 tons (1.7%) week - on - week [9]. - Alumina: Most regions' spot prices stabilized. Downstream enterprises maintained on - demand procurement, and the supply - demand contradiction was still prominent [9]. - Aluminum: In November 2025, winter environmental protection affected some enterprises' production, and demand was suppressed by high prices and environmental protection policies [9]. 3. Market Outlook - Iron ore: In the short term, the price will oscillate due to supply - demand weakness and the central bank's monetary easing expectations [7]. - Asphalt: In the short term, the price will oscillate in a supply - demand weak pattern [7]. - Steel: In the short term, steel prices will continue to be weak as the off - season approaches and the market is mainly influenced by industry factors [9]. - Alumina: Attention should be paid to the mid - month northern heating season production restrictions, which may drive the price to recover [9]. - Aluminum: In the short term, aluminum prices will oscillate at a high level due to positive macro signals and off - season demand [9].