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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250729
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soybean meal (M) futures, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade affects market sentiment and US soybean export prospects, and the weak fundamentals of domestic soybean meal remain unchanged. The futures price is more affected by market sentiment, with funds shifting positions, reduced price fluctuations, and a growing short - term wait - and - see sentiment [5]. - For the palm oil (P) futures, the intraday view is strongly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is strongly volatile. After the trade agreement between the US and the EU, international oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. Palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, is greatly affected by oil price fluctuations and will maintain high - level volatility in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term, the price movement is affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. In the medium - term, it is also affected by these factors. The current intraday view is weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. The core logic is that Sino - US trade uncertainty impacts market sentiment and US soybean exports, and domestic fundamentals are weak, with price fluctuations reduced due to fund position - shifting [5][7]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term, the price movement is affected by its bio - diesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. In the medium - term, it is also affected by these factors. The current intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is strongly volatile. The core logic is that after the US - EU trade agreement, international oil prices rebounded, and palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, will maintain high - level volatility in the short term [7][8]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term and medium - term, the price movement is affected by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the reference view is strongly volatile [7].